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17:57
PDT
Market prioritizing AI and resilient economy over geopolitical issues.
BloombergDan ScullyMalkin StanleyEMSAIBloomberg TradeBloomberg SurveillancePRIVATEDXY
– Semiconductors driving tech sector performance.
– Capital expenditures in tech are accelerating.
– Investors may be underestimating the rotation within tech.
– Tech valuations are becoming expensive.
AI investmentsemiconductor growthtech sector valuation
▸ Full transcript
That come from navigating more than 125 years of market cycles, unlocking the potential of public and private markets, spanning real estate to private credit, and infrastructure to natural capital, finding opportunity today to shape how portfolios are built for tomorrow. Nuvine, invest like the future is watching. At generation speed, automation, and integration, this is the new fixed income EMS that will make sure you win it. Expect more from your execution management system. Bloomberg Trade EMS. A fad to some, the future of money to others. We see cryptos trillion dollar swings. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. In case you missed it, I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. Dan Scully of Malkin Stanley, writing, The market has treated domestic policy and geopolitical shocks almost like pop-up ads in a longer winding movie focused on AI and a resilient economy. The market has been paying up to go ad-free. It's getting expensive on the tech side of things. How expensive is tech right now? Tech has really been the story. And the story clearly within tech is semis. And I think what has surprised folks is not so much the rate of CapEx continuing to accelerate every quarter. It's about this rotation within.
Analysis

The market is increasingly focused on AI and a resilient economy, treating domestic policy and geopolitical shocks as secondary concerns. The tech sector, particularly semiconductors, continues to see accelerating capital expenditures, indicating a strong rotation within the industry that may surprise investors.

17:54
PDT
B-credit has delivered over 10% annual returns since inception.
John GrayB-creditBloombergWall StreetNew YorkYankee StadiumPRIVATEMETA
– John Gray personally invests to align with client interests.
– Daily routine includes extensive market analysis and client meetings.
– Informal communication strategies enhance stakeholder engagement.
– Investment management is a continuous, 24/7 commitment.
private credit performanceinvestor alignmentstakeholder engagement
▸ Full transcript
Wall Street investors and now it's become a thing and our clients love it. Tell me a John Gray day. So is it you know what time do you start? Get up six-ish in the morning. Try to read the newspapers, Bloomberg of course. Always. Always. Get a sense of what's happening in the world. Catch up if I'm in New York on the Asia and Europe emails that have come in overnight. Probably read some stuff that if I didn't get through the night before prepping for the day ahead. Get to the office and chock-a-block meetings, investment committees, internal meetings, client meetings, policymakers, run through the day. If I'm not traveling, I like to go home for dinner. And then I do emails and calls and read documents, investment committee documents at night, and then I tend to read a lot of investment committee memos over the weekend. So it's pretty all-encompassing. It's a 24/7 experience. But again, for me, using an American metaphor, I get to play shortstop at Yankee Stadium. I get to be in this amazing seat thinking about, ultimately investing is betting on the future and you're thinking about where are things going? What does it mean for medicine, for media, for real estate, for all?
Analysis

John Gray emphasizes the importance of alignment with investors by personally investing in B-credit, which has achieved over 10% annual returns since inception. His daily routine reflects a commitment to thorough market analysis and client engagement, underscoring the 24/7 nature of investment management.

Smart money should note that Gray's approach to communication, including informal LinkedIn videos, fosters trust and engagement with stakeholders, which can be a differentiator in a competitive market. The focus on personal investment and transparency may enhance investor confidence amid market noise surrounding private credit.

17:52
PDT
B-credit has surpassed $80 billion with a 10% annual return.
John GrayB-creditBloombergChristine AndersonSaudi Arabia
– Aligning personal investment with firm goals enhances investor trust.
– Informal communication can effectively engage stakeholders.
– Cultural alignment within the firm encourages risk-taking and innovation.
– Automation and robotics are key to future commerce.
communication strategyinvestor trustprivate credit performance
▸ Full transcript
And that they seem like decent human beings. That's helpful. I describe what I produce as sort of dorky dad vibes. I think it gives people a sense of who we are, what we care about, and some of the insights we can give in the world, and do it in a very informal way. And that's worked. At some point, there'll have been too many running videos, and it'll be like enough. For now, we keep running. But you enjoy it. Is that your personality? I definitely get my personality, which is optimistic and a little bit self-deprecating and practically British. And, yeah, exactly. Not quite as dry on the humor side. When I show up in meetings, so often people are saying, I saw that; it makes for a good conversation starter. When we want to get out a message on something, we can do it in a direct way with a large audience. Then you do these holiday videos, which are a lot of people's highlights for the holidays. Yeah. Again, why do it? The holiday videos are a little crazy. I don't know who's inside that costume, but I love what Mr. Stone is bringing to this firm. Surprised I can dunk? Huh? Well, I've got to go. I've got some holiday cheer to spread and some books to sell.
Analysis

John Gray emphasizes the importance of aligning personal investment with firm values to build trust with investors, highlighting the success of B-credit, which has achieved over 10% annual returns. His informal communication style on platforms like LinkedIn fosters engagement and serves as a strategic tool for business messaging.

17:50
PDT
John Gray's LinkedIn communications have gone viral, indicating strong engagement.
John GrayChristine AndersonLinkedInSaudi Arabia
– Direct communication is seen as a tool for enhancing stakeholder relationships.
– Gray's casual updates reflect a modern approach to corporate transparency.
– The strategy may improve employee morale and investor trust.
– Authenticity in leadership communication is increasingly valued.
corporate communicationstakeholder engagement
▸ Full transcript
John Gray has become well known for his distinct online videos. Not in the boardroom, but on runs. I've got a crazy week ahead. It's Thursday morning. I'm in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. We're also going to see, I think, some of these geopolitical hotspots cool down. We keep running wherever we go. I wanted to know how this casual approach came about and whether it's just a bit of fun or a helpful business tool. John, I wanted to talk a little bit about your communications because a lot of people follow you on LinkedIn. Do you enjoy communicating directly? First of all, who are they for? Is it employees or investors? So if I roll the tape back, Christine Anderson, who you know, who runs our corporate affairs, was pushing me for a number of years. You've got to go on LinkedIn. You've got to communicate. Our business is growing. We have a lot of stakeholders. I was resistant but I ultimately conceded because I was like you know what we should do this and I was in Australia and I often would send to my family not post but like hey I'm here in London this is what's going on and instead I did it for a broader audience and we put it on LinkedIn and it went viral so I was like oh I can do other cities this isn't that hard and what I found was that people really enjoy.
Analysis

John Gray emphasizes the importance of direct communication with stakeholders through social media, which has proven effective in engaging a broader audience. His casual approach to sharing updates from various locations has resonated well, indicating a shift in how leadership can connect with employees and investors alike.

The non-obvious insight is that leveraging personal communication channels can enhance trust and transparency within an organization. This strategy not only humanizes leadership but also aligns with the growing expectation for authenticity in corporate communications, potentially influencing employee morale and investor confidence.

17:43
PDT
B-credit has delivered over 10% annual returns since inception.
B-creditprivate equityNorth Star
– Employee contributions to B-credit signal alignment with investor interests.
– Trust is a critical component in the investment business.
– The firm's culture supports personal investment as a trust-building measure.
– Focus on performance is key to maintaining investor confidence.
private credittrust in investing
▸ Full transcript
To know from Gray what it was like to go out and ask colleagues to open their wallets. John, talking about B-credit, how difficult was it to convince employees to put money in it? So in the case of B-credit, which lends senior loans to basically private equity companies, we built this to be an $80 billion plus vehicle. It's done a terrific job, 10 plus percent annual return since inception six years ago. There's been obviously a lot of noise around private credit. And one of the things that's really important to us is that our investors recognize that we're aligned with them. So what we did recently was put up some capital from the individuals of the firm because we wanted to show that alignment. And the key is you're in the investing business, it's a trust business. And when there's a lot of noise and people are saying, this is that, there's nothing more powerful than sort of putting some money in and saying, hey look, I'm aligned with you, this is my money. I believe in what I'm saying. And in the fullness of time again, investors will look back and say, hey, they did a good job. And I think again and again for us, focusing on that North Star, which is performance and building trust with our clients, that's what really matters. But was it difficult for, you know, to convince other employees to join in or is it again just part of the culture? I think it's part of the culture. I mean, obviously when you're asking people to make personal contributions, that's a...
Analysis

B-credit, a vehicle lending senior loans to private equity companies, has achieved over 10% annual returns since its inception, demonstrating strong performance despite market noise. The firm has reinforced alignment with investors by having employees contribute personal capital, emphasizing trust in the investment business.

The culture of personal investment among employees reflects a commitment to shared success and trust-building with clients. This alignment may enhance investor confidence and could lead to increased capital inflows as performance continues to be prioritized.

17:41
PDT
Hiring practices directly influence organizational direction.
BlackstoneSteve Schwarzman
– Promoting risk-takers can inspire younger employees.
– Consumer expectations are evolving towards faster services.
– Automation and robotics are key to future commerce.
– Cultural alignment is crucial for talent retention.
organizational cultureautomationconsumer expectations
▸ Full transcript
About what people are doing, investing, raising money, providing legal. We're constantly calling out people who find interesting and new ways to do things. And then we're rewarding and promoting those people. Because it's interesting, people often think, how do I get an organization to head in a certain direction? And it's not by putting plaques up on the wall with mottos. Who you hire, who you fire, who you promote. If you have people who share your values, who share the drive, and they're the ones who are succeeding, then the younger people are gonna look around and say, oh, that person who took a risk, they moved to a new place, they found this new way to invest capital, oh, I wanna follow them. And I think that in many ways is the best way to model things and also just the way you act. You know, the way you conduct yourself sends a powerful signal to others. Commerce has completely transformed over the past couple of decades. With same-day groceries and next-day deliveries, consumer expectations for speed and convenience have completely shifted. Automation and robotics will have an important role to play in the future.
Analysis

Blackstone emphasizes the importance of hiring and promoting individuals who align with the company's values and drive, as this fosters a culture of innovation and risk-taking. The shift in consumer expectations towards speed and convenience is reshaping commerce, highlighting the growing role of automation and robotics in the future.

17:39
PDT
John Gray has never considered leaving Blackstone, citing intellectual challenge and strong relationships.
BlackstoneJohn GraySteve Schwarzman
– Gray's relationship with Steve Schwarzman has evolved, emphasizing continuity and openness.
– The culture at Blackstone fosters talent retention through personal growth opportunities.
– Gray's experience highlights the importance of a supportive work environment in crisis management.
– Blackstone's growth strategy allows young professionals to thrive within a larger firm.
talent retentionfirm culture
▸ Full transcript
With 75 people to affirm that now is more than 5,000 people, we've got to make sure people seem excited or are excited about coming to work every day. Have you ever thought of leaving? No. Never? No. And there's nothing, I mean, what attracts you to Blackstone? You're also seen as the heir apparent. I've woken up every day intellectually challenged by what I do, and I love the people, and I love the drive and the will to win. How has your relationship with Steve Schwarzman changed over the years? Oh wow. When I joined, I was a kid, right? I was 22 years old, was a tiny little firm. And obviously as I've grown up over time, the relationship as somebody just learning the business to somebody helping run the firm is different. But I would say there's remarkable continuity. Steve's just always pushing for the best. And even at a young age, one of the great things about Steve and the firm is this openness to listen at the table. So even when I was very young, once I sort of got my sea legs and I said, oh, I don't like this transaction for whatever reason, you were heard. And so I think Steve just appreciates drive, caring, and entrepreneurial spirit. For me, it's one of the great gifts of really not only my career, my life to have been able to work so closely with him, to be able to learn so much from somebody who's so wise, who always has equanimity.
Analysis

John Gray emphasizes his unwavering commitment to Blackstone, highlighting the intellectual challenge and camaraderie that keeps him engaged. His long-standing relationship with Steve Schwarzman reflects a culture of openness and continuous learning, which is crucial for talent retention and firm growth.

Smart money should note that Gray's loyalty and the firm's culture are pivotal in attracting and retaining top talent, especially in a competitive market. The emphasis on personal growth and the ability to voice opinions at all levels may serve as a model for other firms seeking to enhance employee satisfaction and performance.

17:37
PDT
Loyalty and culture are key to talent retention at Blackstone.
BlackstoneJohn GraySteve Schwarzman
– A supportive environment can help attract top talent.
– Experience in crisis management is vital for long-term success.
– Optimism and calmness can lead to unexpected recovery.
– Growth opportunities exist even in larger firms.
talent retentioncorporate culture
▸ Full transcript
Your nature, your fundamental optimism, but part of it is having experience and understanding that these crises, there is another side. And you have to make decisions keeping that in mind. You're a lifer at Blackstone. Lifer, 34 years plus. 34 years, is that what you want from your staff as well, loyalty? Well, if they love what they're doing and the people they're doing it with, then yes. I think the culture that Steve Schwarzman has really created, a place where people are striving for excellence, trying very hard to deliver for our underlying clients, where people treat each other well, and ultimately if you do a great job you get rewarded. Your hope is that you can attract the best and the brightest, and that they're going to want to stay and grow. And I'm very blessed to work with people who've been at the firm for decades. At the same time, I think what's important at a firm is that it grows because one of the problems with some of the smaller firms is there's not a space, you know, that smaller tree can't get sunlight. And so what's great about this firm is this push to grow gives young people a chance to say, even though I'm joining a bigger firm today, I still have a lot of opportunity. How do you think about retaining talent? First of all, do you see it as a personal mission? And actually, what do people want? I think it's a personal mission for sure. I think what people want...
Analysis

John Gray emphasizes the importance of loyalty and a positive culture at Blackstone, highlighting that a supportive environment fosters talent retention and growth. He reflects on his long tenure and the firm's commitment to excellence, suggesting that a larger firm can provide opportunities for young professionals despite its size.

The insight here is that in times of crisis, maintaining a calm and optimistic approach can lead to unexpected successes, as demonstrated by Blackstone's recovery from significant losses. This perspective on crisis management and talent retention could be crucial for firms navigating current market uncertainties.

17:33
PDT
Blackstone's Hilton investment faced a 71% write-down.
BlackstoneHiltonCOVIDHilton GardenUnited States
– The company recovered and went public, generating $14 billion.
– Staying calm and positive is crucial during market downturns.
– Long-term growth potential in travel and hospitality remains strong.
– Investor confidence can be restored through effective communication.
investment resiliencehospitality sector recovery
▸ Full transcript
Part of me was thinking, what have I done, but there was also part of me that thought this is a great business. We still believed that travel was a long-term growth business and that the core of the company, the branded hotel business where you manage and franchise hotels—Hilton, Hilton Garden, Hampton, Waldorf—could grow significantly beyond the United States, and we just had to weather this storm. We ended up putting in an extra $800 million at the bottom. By the way, we wrote down the investment by 71%. It was quite a storm. We wrote down the largest investment in our firm's history by 71%. I had to go to meetings with investors and say to them, 'Hey, I know we've done this, but it's unrealized; we're going to get through this.' There was obviously, rightfully, a lot of concern. Ultimately, the sun came back out, the business grew, we took the company public, and we made $14 billion. By all accounts, that should not have happened. So the question becomes, what do you learn? One is the importance of staying calm. I always say to my kids, and now I say to everyone at Blackstone, stay calm, stay positive, never give up. I think that was really important in a moment like this. By the way, we've seen this in COVID and when markets react.
Analysis

Blackstone's John Gray reflected on the firm's significant investment in Hilton, which faced a 71% write-down during a turbulent period. Despite initial investor concerns, the company ultimately went public and generated $14 billion, highlighting the importance of resilience in investment strategy.

The key takeaway for investors is the emphasis on maintaining composure and a long-term perspective during market volatility. Gray's experience underscores that even substantial setbacks can lead to remarkable recoveries if managed with a positive outlook and strategic foresight.

17:31
PDT
Blackstone's assets have grown significantly under Gray's leadership.
BlackstoneJohn GrayHiltonSteve Schwarzman
– The firm capitalizes on market dislocations to acquire undervalued assets.
– Gray's experience during the financial crisis informs current strategies.
– Talent retention is crucial for maintaining operational stability.
– The Hilton deal remains a pivotal moment in Blackstone's history.
private equity growthreal estate investmentmarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
In 1992, at just 22 years old, under the mentorship of chair and chief executive Steve Schwarzman, Gray began on the real estate side of the business, helping it become the largest private equity real estate investor in the world. Since assuming his current role in 2018, Blackstone says its assets have nearly tripled to over $1.3 trillion. At a time of global upheaval, I was keen to catch up with Gray about how he leads through crisis while maintaining trust, the challenges facing Blackstone's flagship private credit fund, how he retains talent, and what that tells us about his own sense of loyalty. John Gray, thank you so much for joining us. It's great to be with you, Francine. You're known as the Hilton deal guy, right? Twenty years ago, you took this massive bet on Hilton. You paid $26 billion for Blackstone with $20 billion in debt. What were you thinking? It wasn't as wise back then. I guess at the time, if you go back, this is right before the financial crisis. I was running our real estate business, and what we were looking for was how could we buy great real estate or operating businesses at reasonable prices? There was so much debt in the market fueling private real estate values that we found we could buy the public companies at better prices.
Analysis

Blackstone's assets have nearly tripled to over $1.3 trillion since John Gray took the helm in 2018, showcasing resilience amid global upheaval. Gray's strategic focus on acquiring undervalued real estate and operating businesses during market turmoil highlights a disciplined investment approach that could yield significant returns.

17:29
PDT
Ryanair's cost advantage secures its market position.
RyanairBloombergNuvineWall Street WeekBloomberg TechPRIVATE
– U.S. market lacks low-cost carriers, indicating potential demand.
– $15 billion revenue target reflects strong growth expectations.
– Long-term demand for compute resources is assured.
– Transformational opportunities exist for companies in tech.
airline competitiontech growth potential
▸ Full transcript
The night was brutal. We were never bruised; we were cheap and blessed. Now we're just cheap and cheerful. Ryanair will continue to dominate the short-haul space in Europe because we have much lower fares and much lower costs. The problem for the last 20 years in the States is that there's really been no low-cost carriers anymore. If you had a real low-fare carrier here in the States, as Ryanair is in the U.S., there would still be very strong demand. Don't miss Bloomberg's surveillance, live every weekday. Join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech, and climate. More than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about. In case you missed it on Bloomberg Tech, this is not perishable demand. It's not something that if a window closes, there's not going to be a need for compute. So we are thinking about this in the long game. We are very confident that we are on track to that $15 billion number in a very, very short time, which is quite transformational for the company relative to the size of opportunity and the amount of revenue that we'll deliver. Don't miss.
Analysis

Ryanair is set to maintain its dominance in the European short-haul market due to its significantly lower fares and costs compared to competitors. The lack of low-cost carriers in the U.S. market suggests a strong demand potential if a similar model were to emerge there.

Smart money should note that the demand for compute resources is not perishable, indicating a long-term growth trajectory for companies in this sector. The confidence in reaching a $15 billion revenue target highlights the transformational potential for firms capitalizing on this sustained demand.

17:22
PDT
The Marcos legacy is polarizing, impacting current governance.
MarcosPhilippinesRodrigo DuterteSarah DutertePresident Marcos JuniorThe MarcosGC=F
– Lessons on entitlement from the past shape current leadership views.
– Political dynamics may influence economic reforms and stability.
– Investor sentiment could be affected by historical perceptions.
– Continuity in governance is a key concern for economic progress.
political stabilitygovernance continuity
▸ Full transcript
The promise of economic progress fell to corruption and debt. Eventually, the poverty and inequality erupted into revolution. On the night of February 25th, 1986, the family fled into exile in Hawaii. President Marcos Junior was 28 years old. Did you then understand the idea of privilege? Yes. Who your father was? Very quickly. Oh, very, very quickly. Because my father and my mother made it very clear: you're not entitled to anything. They don't ever think that they owe you. Nobody owes you anything. And that was a lesson that they hammered into us over and over again. The Marcos name has a complex history. Oh, yes. Yeah? Some people attribute the name to the golden age of the Philippines. Others say it is about martial law suppression. How do you define that period in Philippine history? Politics, by its nature, is polarizing. And so there will be those different schools of thought. But if you look at actual governance and performance, and when the Philippines progressed into the modern world, I think we can ascribe that period to the time of my father.
Analysis

The Marcos family's legacy is viewed through a polarized lens, with some seeing it as a golden age for the Philippines while others associate it with martial law suppression. The current president reflects on the lessons of entitlement and governance, suggesting a complex relationship with the past that influences present policies.

Smart money should note the ongoing political dynamics in the Philippines, particularly the tension between the current administration and the previous one, which could impact governance continuity and economic reforms. The historical context of the Marcos era may also affect investor sentiment and perceptions of stability in the region.

17:18
PDT
Marcos stresses the need for continuity in governance.
President Marcos JuniorSarah DuterteRodrigo DutertePhilippines
– Concerns about potential policy reversals if Duterte gains power.
– Infrastructure development remains a priority for the Marcos administration.
– Political stability is essential for economic reforms.
– AI's impact on job markets is acknowledged, with a focus on service sector resilience.
political stabilityinfrastructure investmentservice sector dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Everyone is saying there's elections in a couple of years. And of course, we have to attend to that. But I think it is not entirely accurate to describe that there's a war between warring families. The response is really to leave politics aside because the work of national development is a million times more important. Was it a mistake to run on the same ticket as Sarah Duterte? No. I don't think so. I think for the time that it was, that was the best thing that we could do. We had the same idea of what needed to be done in government. Maybe that's changed, but if we look at it in the context of that period, I think that was the right thing to do still. Sarah Duterte remains very popular. Yes. If she were to come to power, are you concerned that perhaps some of your policies might be reversed? Yes, very much. That is a great worry for me because we have just started and these are big things that we are trying to do. We're changing the whole way that we govern. We are trying to reform the bureaucracy. These things don't get done instantly and it's very, very easy to go off the rails. It is continuity that we aspire for, that we dream of, that we work for. And that continuity has to go on. Otherwise, we go back to doing business.
Analysis

President Marcos emphasizes the importance of continuity in governance amidst rising political tensions with Vice President Sarah Duterte. He expresses concern that a shift in power could reverse critical reforms aimed at national development and bureaucratic efficiency.

The underlying tension between Marcos and Duterte highlights the fragility of political alliances in the Philippines, which could impact ongoing infrastructure projects and economic reforms. Investors should note that political stability is crucial for the successful implementation of these initiatives, as any disruption could hinder economic growth.

17:16
PDT
Political rivalry may disrupt infrastructure projects.
President Marcos JuniorVice President Sarah DuterteRodrigo DuterteInternational Criminal CourtThe Marcos
– Continuity in governance is crucial for economic stability.
– Digital infrastructure is becoming a priority for growth.
– AI presents both opportunities and risks for the job market.
– Service sector jobs may evolve rather than disappear.
political instabilityinfrastructure developmentAI impact on jobsservice sector dynamics
▸ Full transcript
We still have what I call a small-town attitude, but it actually extends even at the national level. When I come into office, everything my predecessor did was wrong. Because you can't paint that. These programs get stopped because now I have my own better program, and they're not necessarily better. So there's a stop and go that I think really gets in the way. Continuity, I think, is the key. And that is the only way for us to strengthen our institutions. Look at the more developed democracies. Whatever happens in politics, government continues to function. Politics can overshadow policy. What began as an uneasy alliance with Vice President Sarah Duterte has developed into open rivalry. This country is going to kill because we are led by a person who doesn't know how to be a president and who is a liar. She is the daughter of the previous president, Rodrigo Duterte. We will eliminate the drug lords once and for all. Who now faces charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court of a deadly war on drugs. The former president faces charges of crime. The Marcos government played a key role in allowing his arrest.
Analysis

Political instability in the Philippines is hindering infrastructure development, with a lack of continuity in governance leading to inefficiencies. The rivalry between President Marcos and Vice President Duterte could further complicate policy implementation, impacting economic growth prospects.

Smart money should note that the ongoing political tensions may delay critical infrastructure projects, which are essential for enhancing productivity and attracting foreign investment. The focus on digital infrastructure and AI presents both opportunities and challenges, particularly for the service sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the economy.

17:11
PDT
60% of the Philippine economy is in services, with AI posing both risks and opportunities.
Fredidun Bombang Marcus Jr.PhilippinesBPOAINixon
– The government aims to offset job losses in BPOs with growth in other service sectors.
– Concerns over crony capitalism and incomplete infrastructure projects could impact investor sentiment.
– Digital infrastructure is becoming increasingly important for economic development.
– AI is viewed as a tool that requires proactive management to mitigate job disruption.
AI disruptionservice sector growthinfrastructure investmentpolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
Because of AI, including in the service sectors, you talk about the digital economy, AI comes into play. It has the potential to disrupt a lot of jobs. When you take a look at the BPO industry in particular, it employs a huge number of the middle class. How prepared are you in terms of job disruption? 60% of our economy is in services, and those service jobs will not go away. So whatever employment will go down, perhaps BPOs and things like that, it will grow in the service industries. We've always been strong in terms of services in the Philippines, not only locally but even abroad. And so that's where we hope to compensate. So AI is more of an opportunity for the Philippines as opposed to a threat? It's a balanced thing. I mean, it's like I say, like any powerful tool, it cuts both ways. You have to consciously do things to anticipate the changes in employment patterns. It's not just jobs that have put pressure on the president. In 2025, an audit showed that hundreds of government-funded flood control projects were paid for and marked completed. In reality, the reports indicated that many of them were never built or were shoddily done. Accusations of crony capitalism have haunted him since.
Analysis

The Philippines' economy faces significant challenges as President Marcos Jr. navigates the potential disruption caused by AI in the service sector, which constitutes 60% of the economy. While there are concerns about job losses in BPOs, the administration believes that growth in other service industries can offset these losses, framing AI as an opportunity rather than a threat.

Smart money should note that the government's struggle with crony capitalism and unfulfilled infrastructure projects could undermine investor confidence. The balance between leveraging AI for economic growth and managing its disruptive potential will be crucial for the Philippines' economic trajectory.

17:09
PDT
Philippines loses $18 billion yearly due to inefficiencies.
President Marcos Jr.PhilippinesPresident Marcos Jr
– Infrastructure investments are a priority for President Marcos Jr.
– Delays in building projects could hinder economic growth.
– Digital infrastructure is becoming increasingly important.
– Infrastructure is essential for private sector development.
infrastructure investmenteconomic recovery
▸ Full transcript
$18 billion every year to lower productivity, higher operating costs, and health impacts. President Marcos Jr. is promising to get things in motion by charging ahead with massive infrastructure investments, including extending subway and rail lines to the whole country. However, scrambles around building projects during his time have become road bumps. Until those clear up, it might be hard to get the streets and the Philippine economy moving. For commerce to increase and become more active, you have to provide the means of conducting that commerce. Infrastructure is key to that. We think now about digital infrastructure as well, and that's why it has become such an important part of what we do. When we talk about development in the Philippines, we talk about infrastructure as the basis upon which the private sector can build, upon which the educational sector can build, and competition in terms of labor, workforces, and all the new industries. The infrastructure has to be there. Of course, it doesn't mean that we are neglecting roads, bridges, and transport systems; rail, for example, has been one of the biggest areas where we have tried to develop. We have the north side.
Analysis

$18 billion is lost annually in the Philippines due to lower productivity, higher operating costs, and health impacts. President Marcos Jr. is pushing for significant infrastructure investments, including extending subway and rail lines, but ongoing project delays pose challenges to economic progress.

Smart money should note that the focus on both physical and digital infrastructure is critical for enhancing commerce and competitiveness in the Philippines. The government's commitment to infrastructure development could unlock potential in various sectors, particularly as the economy seeks to recover from past inefficiencies.

17:05
PDT
Investment is crucial for growth above 6%.
semiconductorsAIdata centersDXY
– Semiconductors are the largest export, moving towards design.
– Digitalization is key to reducing costs and improving efficiency.
– The workforce is young and experienced in international business.
– Tax incentives are being restructured to attract investors.
investment strategydigital transformationworkforce development
▸ Full transcript
The lack of stability is going to factor into that. That's the general risk factor. It's still there, and that's not going to diminish immediately. That's going to taper off. But how do you get to above 6%? What is the strategy? What's needed? Of course, it's investment because when it comes to production, our largest export in dollar terms is semiconductors. We have now moved away up the value chain from just pure fabrication to design. And that has put us in a very good position for the advent of data centers and AI. We have restructured even our tax incentives for investors. The ease of doing business is something that we are working very hard on, bringing down the cost of transportation, for example, to digitalize. Digitalization is key to everything that we're doing because that makes everything much easier and cheaper. If done right, there's a potential for abuse. You remove the discretion in the decision-making process. The other part that we immediately identified, because in our economy, what we always consider our greatest asset is our workforce. We have a relatively young workforce. We have a workforce that is used to working with foreign entities because of our diaspora. They are relatively well-challenged.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the ongoing economic challenges, emphasizing the need for investment to achieve growth above 6%. Key strategies include enhancing digitalization and leveraging a young, skilled workforce accustomed to international collaboration.

Smart money should note the focus on semiconductors as a primary export and the shift towards higher value-added activities like design, which positions the economy favorably for AI and data center developments. The restructuring of tax incentives and efforts to improve the ease of doing business signal a proactive approach to attract foreign investment.

17:00
PDT
Fredidun Bombang Marcus Jr. is returning to power amid economic challenges.
Fredidun Bombang Marcus Jr.PhilippinesChairman MaoUnited NationsPresident NixonIranUNFredidun Bombang Marcus JrUnited StatesPresident MarcosIran War
– Global instability, particularly the Iran War, is intensifying these challenges.
– The Marcos administration has a limited time to establish a positive legacy.
– Historical context of corruption and martial law looms over the current administration.
– Investors should be wary of potential volatility in the Philippines.
geopolitical riskeconomic instability
▸ Full transcript
Not to talk about the past. I am here to tell you about our future. Son of a dictator and heir to the Philippines' most famous political dynasty, Fredidun Bombang Marcus Jr. was born into power. I met Chairman Mao when I was 16 years old. I've met all of the Secretary-General of the UN. I've met all the presidents of the United States. President Nixon, when he came here, gave me the first commercial ticket to fly to the moon. Decades later, he has returned to claim the office his father held. But with two years left in a single six-year term, President Marcos faces daunting economic challenges, intensified by global instability and the Iran War, while contending with the shadow of his father's rule. One marred by corruption, abuses of power, and martial law, ending in his family's exile. The window is closing to establish a legacy that stands on its own. We're here at Malacan.
Analysis

Fredidun Bombang Marcus Jr., son of a dictator, is poised to reclaim his father's political legacy amidst significant economic challenges. With global instability and the Iran War exacerbating the situation, he faces a critical window to establish a legacy independent of his father's controversial rule.

Smart money should note that the current geopolitical climate, particularly the Iran War, could impact the Philippines' economic stability and Marcos Jr.'s ability to govern effectively. Investors should be cautious of potential volatility in the region as the Marcos administration navigates these challenges while trying to distance itself from past corruption and abuses of power.

16:55
PDT
The book reflects deep emotional ties to Cuba and family.
CubaTrumpMarco RubioLyndon JohnsonCuban Adjustment ActDXY
– Cuban-American sentiments towards Trump may shift due to immigration policies.
– The narrative emphasizes the importance of identity in shaping political views.
– Potential for changing voter behavior in Florida's Cuban community.
– The book's release could resonate with broader themes of nostalgia and belonging.
Cuban-American relationsimmigration policycultural identity
▸ Full transcript
They were alive. Actually, I'm not sure that's true. I could have never written the book if my brother was alive. I struggle with that question a lot now that it's coming out, right? What they would think if they were to read it. Of course, they couldn't read it unless it was in Spanish. So hopefully, it'll be in Spanish someday. I think that they would understand that the book is a testament of love for them, a testament of love for this place called Cuba. So I think they would understand that. Would they be pleased with every detail I shared? Maybe not. But my sister tells me that my mother would love the fact that she's on the cover of a book. Yeah, it's a gorgeous picture. She's smiling, she's holding you in her arms. Her older son, Polly, is right there beside her. Adafirera, thank you. Thank you for enlightening me along with so many others. Well, thanks for having me and thanks for reading the book. Some see heroes. Others only egos. We see the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some. The future of money to others. We see crypto's trillion-dollar swings. The end of jobs or the end of human struggle.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the emotional weight of a new book that serves as a testament of love for Cuba, reflecting on familial connections and the complexities of identity. It underscores the potential for a shift in Cuban-American sentiments towards political figures, particularly in light of recent immigration policies that may alienate traditional supporters of Trump among the Cuban community.

Smart money should note the evolving dynamics within the Cuban-American community, as changing perceptions could influence political landscapes and voter behavior in Florida. The emotional narrative surrounding identity and belonging may also impact consumer sentiment and investment in related sectors, particularly those tied to Cuban heritage and diaspora.

16:53
PDT
Identity transition from Cuban to American is significant.
CubaUnited StatesLyndon JohnsonMarco Rubio
– Gratitude towards migration highlights personal and familial sacrifices.
– Recent deportation policies may alter Cuban-American political support.
– The ongoing crisis in Cuba could lead to increased migration.
– Personal narratives reflect broader socio-political dynamics.
immigration policyCuban-American identity
▸ Full transcript
Yes. I think you grew up thinking of yourself as Cuban. How does that transition happen? Because I think you grew up in a very Cuban community and college at Vasa is a key moment of you discovering a wider world. Yeah, everyone I grew up with thought of themselves as Cuban and sometimes I'll call myself Cuban-American. But yeah, no, I think it wasn't, I think, until I had children of my own and began traveling with them outside the U.S. that I began to think of myself as American. In the last line of the book, I call myself an American woman. And that's the first time I've ever written it so explicitly like that. Your father, when he's dying, you thank him, don't you? For bringing you to the United States. It was his departure that made yours possible. But I felt like you hadn't really seen that moment to spark gratitude until you're there in his last hours and days. Yeah, I just felt I wanted to say that to him before he died. Because I realized that my coming here or their bringing me here meant that, you know, that I had opportunities I would have never had had I stayed in Cuba. And also there's the idea that even if I had stayed in Cuba, maybe I would have left later. Maybe I'd be part of this major exodus over the last year.
Analysis

The speaker reflects on their identity transition from Cuban to American, highlighting a moment of gratitude towards their father for the opportunities afforded by their migration. This personal journey underscores the broader implications of the Cuban exodus and the evolving dynamics of Cuban-American identity amidst ongoing political challenges.

Smart money should note the potential shift in Cuban-American attitudes towards U.S. immigration policies, particularly as recent deportation actions may affect long-standing perceptions of support for certain political figures. The intersection of personal narratives and broader socio-political contexts could influence market sentiment in Florida's demographics and voting patterns.

16:49
PDT
Cuba's living conditions are unsustainable, creating potential for change.
CubaLyndon JohnsonMarco RubioTrumpMaduroJohn Ratcliffe
– Negotiations are crucial for improving the lives of Cuban people.
– The speaker identifies as an American woman, marking a personal shift.
– Cuban-Americans may reassess their political support due to immigration policies.
– Hope and fear coexist in the current Cuban landscape.
Cuban political instabilityImmigration policy impactCuban-American voting dynamics
▸ Full transcript
What are you looking for now that does give you hope amidst all this? It's a combination of hope and fear at the same time. I feel like I can't separate them. The fact that things have gotten so bad means that there is maybe more opportunity for change right now. But at the same time, the reason that exists is because things are absolutely unsustainable in Cuba, which never makes me feel good. I hope that both sides can figure out a way to negotiate and arrive at a place that makes room for Cuban people to live more fully. Right now it doesn't feel like they're living. It feels like they're barely hanging on. They're barely surviving. And even survival right now is an open question. So if there's a way that they can arrive at a peaceful change, that would be great. But again, I don't know how hopeful I am that that will happen. And I do fear all kinds of things. In the last line of the book, I call myself an American woman. And that's the first time I've ever written it so explicitly like that.
Analysis

The current situation in Cuba is dire, with unsustainable living conditions prompting a potential for change, though hope remains tempered by fear. The speaker expresses a desire for negotiations that allow Cuban people to live more fully, highlighting the precariousness of survival in the country.

Smart money should note the duality of hope and fear in the Cuban context, as worsening conditions could lead to significant political shifts. The mention of the Cuban Adjustment Act suggests that historical immigration policies may influence current political dynamics, particularly among Cuban-Americans in Florida.

16:47
PDT
Cuban immigrants are now facing deportation under current U.S. policies.
CubaTrumpLyndon JohnsonCuban Adjustment ActFloridaSouth Florida
– Historical advantages for Cubans in the U.S. may be eroding.
– Cuban-American attitudes towards Trump could shift due to immigration policies.
– The Cuban Adjustment Act historically provided Cubans with unique immigration benefits.
– Political dynamics in Florida may change as a result of these immigration policies.
immigration policyCuban-American sentimentRepublican politics
▸ Full transcript
That's what's missing in his perspective, that there isn't that firsthand experience of the place. He knows the Cuba that his parents and grandparents talked about. And he knows the Cuba that he's learned about through his research as a senator and then as a secretary of state. But I don't think he has experience on the ground that would lead him maybe to be more flexible and more realistic. I want to again bring us back to the present and two things. One about the recent arrivals from Cuba and how they are finding themselves targeted by the administration's drive to deport. What is the impact of that? How much do you think it could change Republican politics in a place like Florida? Well, this administration's policy regarding immigration, I think, has been cruel and unjust, and Cubans are not exempt from that. A lot of Cubans in Miami and South Florida voted for Trump, understanding that his intention was to deport people. They never thought those deportations would apply to Cubans. They thought it would apply to other people, because Cubans have always had an advantage in the U.S. There's something passed by Lyndon Johnson's administration, the Cuban Adjustment Act, which basically gave Cubans a welcome no other immigrants had. It may change Cuban-American attitudes towards Trump.
Analysis

The current U.S. administration's immigration policy is perceived as cruel and unjust, particularly affecting recent arrivals from Cuba, who are now facing deportation. This could shift Cuban-American political attitudes towards Trump, as many believed they were exempt from such policies due to historical advantages like the Cuban Adjustment Act.

Smart money should note that the changing sentiment among Cuban-Americans in Florida could impact Republican politics significantly, potentially altering voter behavior in future elections. The historical context of immigration policies may lead to a reevaluation of support for Trump among this demographic, which could have broader implications for the GOP's strategy in the state.

16:44
PDT
Cuba's blackouts are worsening, impacting daily life significantly.
CubaMarco RubioJohn RatcliffeTrump
– Political negotiations between the U.S. and Cuba remain stagnant.
– There is a disconnect between political rhetoric and the needs of the Cuban populace.
– Marco Rubio's personal connection to Cuba may influence U.S. policy discussions.
– The situation in Cuba could lead to increased instability if not addressed.
Cuban energy crisisU.S.-Cuba relationspolitical negotiations
▸ Full transcript
Blackouts, even in Havana, where they tend to be less severe than in the countryside or in the interior, are going to be of 20 to 22 hours a day. A country can't survive like that. People can't survive like that. So my sense is that something has to change. But the way I see it, both sides are just stuck in these old scripts they've had for a long time. It basically says no negotiation, even though they have to be negotiating, and we know that because John Ratcliffe was just there, right? Then meanwhile, Trump speaks in a way that doubles down on a kind of really crude American imperialism that's reminiscent of the turn of the 20th century. And what gets lost in all that is that people just want to live, right? And I don't have any confidence right now that that is the priority of either side involved in the negotiations. There is one person in the administration who knows the story of Cuba in the way you do, and that's Marco Rubio, who grew up hearing stories of Cuba from his grandfather. He was filled with a sense of the country that his family left behind. He would understand your story perfectly, wouldn't he, even if politically his instincts are different from yours? I mean, I think there's something we share, which is having grown up with that sense of pain and loss and nostalgia.
Analysis

Cuba faces severe blackouts, with reports indicating outages lasting 20 to 22 hours a day, raising concerns about the country's ability to sustain itself. The ongoing political stalemate between the U.S. and Cuba, characterized by entrenched positions, overshadows the urgent needs of the Cuban people who simply want to live their lives.

16:42
PDT
Cuba faces a significant oil supply crisis.
CubaVenezuelaMexicoAda FerrerMarco RubioPrinceton UniversityCL=F
– Cuban Americans experience guilt over their family's struggles.
– The emotional impact of Cuba's situation is profound for expatriates.
– Historical ties influence current sentiments towards Cuba.
– The political landscape in Cuba remains unstable.
humanitarian crisisCuban-American relationsoil supply disruption
▸ Full transcript
Playing with friends, and we left, and then he came back for dinner, and my grandmother told him that we had gone to the countryside to help with an ailing relative. I know that he learned before the week was out that we had left because he sat down and wrote a letter to my mother about five days after we left. And is this part of your life still that you worry about, about family who remain in Cuba, and people like you try and figure out ways to still support them? Oh absolutely, there's no question about that. It feels like a heavy weight to carry. Obviously, what those in Cuba are going through, that's the most immense, but for you too to feel that contrast between their lives and yours? Yeah, I think that's a lot of it. You know, at the heart of the book is a profound sense of guilt, right? That my mother brought me with her to this country. She left behind my brother. He had trauma. I had a loving mother. I had opportunities here that he never had there. Even when I became a historian of Cuba and began traveling to Cuba, I could do that. So then to the present moment, Ada, and the situation since January, when the oil that used to come from Venezuela no longer came after Maduro was captured.
Analysis

Cuba's ongoing crisis is exacerbated by the cessation of oil supplies from Venezuela and Mexico, leading to severe hardships for its citizens. The emotional weight of this situation is felt deeply by those with family ties to the island, highlighting a stark contrast between their lives and those of Cuban Americans.

16:38
PDT
Cuban Americans maintain a strong emotional connection to their homeland despite political tensions.
CubaUnited StatesAda FerrerMarco RubioCastroBarbara WaltersFidel Castro
– Historical narratives influence current perceptions and potential market movements.
– Geopolitical relations can impact trade and energy sectors significantly.
– The diaspora's desire for reunification may drive investment in Cuban assets.
– Personal stories reflect broader socio-political themes that could affect market sentiment.
▸ Full transcript
was that we had left my brother behind. She left behind a nine-and-a-half-year-old son who was her son from a first marriage. And my brother, Boli, my half-brother, his father did not let him leave, would not give my mother permission to take him. You know, even then it made no sense because I always knew my brother was in Cuba. I always knew he was there. I always knew the goal was reunification as soon as possible. We talked about him all the time. His picture was in the house. I used to kiss this picture at night, you know, that kind of thing. So that part of the story was hugely important, but not treated quite the same way as the other part of the story. And then as I got older, even as a teenager starting to resist kind of the imposition of their Cuban nostalgia, I just started to become more interested. And in 1977, the four of us, my parents, my sister, and I, were sitting in the living room watching Barbara Walters' interview with Fidel Castro. And before he came on, there were scenes of Havana, you know, of the Malecón and the lighthouse and the streets and the cars and so on. And I looked at it and just started crying. And I would have been 15 at the time. And my parents just couldn't believe it, you know. The nostalgia and the pain had always been theirs. You know, why was I crying? And I remember so clearly saying to them, I'm crying because I was born there.
Analysis

The emotional complexity of leaving family behind during migration highlights the deep personal impacts of geopolitical tensions. This narrative underscores the long-standing historical ties and conflicts between Cuba and the United States, which continue to shape the lives of Cuban Americans today.

Smart money should recognize that the ongoing political dynamics between the U.S. and Cuba could influence market sentiment, particularly in sectors related to energy and trade. The emotional resonance of these stories may also affect consumer behavior and investment in Cuban-related assets as the diaspora seeks to reconnect with their roots.

16:35
PDT
Cuban exiles historically expected a quick return post-Castro.
CubaCastroFidelBay of Pigs
– Personal narratives shape the understanding of political situations.
– The emotional connection to Cuba remains strong despite political disagreements.
Cuban exile sentimentPolitical nostalgia
▸ Full transcript
They really assumed that the Castro government wouldn't last. There had been the Bay of Pigs in 1961 in which the U.S. invaded Cuba using Cuban exiles, and the U.S. was defeated. But even then, people really thought that there would probably be another invasion, that the next invasion would not be as badly organized as that one. Or they thought Fidel would fall of his own accord. So their assumption was that they would return. When my father left in 1962, my mother was pregnant with me. So he left a year before we did. And he really thought it would be a matter of months, maybe a year. And then my mother thought the same thing when we left. So this journey that defines your life really, leaving as a babe in your mother's arms, aged 10 months in 1963, I guess you know that story because your mother told it to you, right? So how was it described to you as a child and how did you fill in the blanks later on? Well, my mother was always a storyteller. She loved telling stories, and she even loved, you know, adding music to her stories and snatches of songs and so on. So the story she told was a story of the two of us making this incredible, irreversible, it turns out, journey together. And we were partners. She suffered, she struggled, she'd never left the country, she was wearing heels. Yeah, I was heavy in her arms. She didn't know what she was doing, the people who were gonna pick us up.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the enduring belief among Cuban exiles that the Castro government would eventually fall, leading to a return to Cuba. This sentiment reflects a complex relationship with the island, characterized by nostalgia and political discontent, which shapes the perspectives of those who left.

16:33
PDT
Ferrer was born in Cuba but left at a young age, shaping her perspective.
Ada FerrerCubaUnited StatesMy Kin
– There is a strong emotional connection to Cuba among Cuban Americans despite political disagreements.
– The nostalgia for Cuba is coupled with criticism of its government.
– Younger generations may have different views on U.S.-Cuba relations.
– Potential shifts in U.S. policy could affect trade and tourism sectors.
U.S.-Cuba relationsCuban American sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Set for your next book really, and I do want to bring us right up to the present day. But I'd love you to start by helping us understand your relationship with Cuba. And I think you've hinted at it already there. There's a line in Keeper of My Kin where you write that Cuba is the place that you were taught by your family to both love and hate. Can you deconstruct that for us? Yeah. I was born in Cuba, so that's the beginning of the relationship. But I left when I was 10 months, or I was taken when I was 10 months, which means that I had no memory of it at all. So my introduction to Cuba was via other people, mostly my parents, but also neighbors and community. And in that community and in my family, there was an intense love for the place, an intense nostalgia about the place, for a long time, an intense desire to return. At the same time, there was profound disagreement with the government of Cuba. So that made it a complicated place. You could love the place, but not the government, the people, but not the leaders. So that was part of it. The other thing is that, like any American teenager, when your parents keep talking about something and keep trying to get you to like it and value it, there's a part of you that always resists, right? So whenever they compared the U.S. to Cuba, and, oh, everything was so much better in Cuba, or in Cuba.
Analysis

Ada Ferrer discusses her complex relationship with Cuba, shaped by nostalgia and familial love, despite a strong disagreement with the Cuban government. This duality reflects a broader sentiment among Cuban Americans, where affection for the homeland coexists with criticism of its political leadership.

The emotional ties to Cuba highlight the potential for political and economic shifts in U.S.-Cuba relations, especially as younger generations grapple with their heritage. Investors should note that any changes in policy could impact sectors related to Cuban trade and tourism, as well as the broader geopolitical landscape in Latin America.

16:25
PDT
Terra Industries is expanding its manufacturing network across Africa and other emerging markets.
Terra IndustriesNathan WachukuMaxwell MadukaWest AfricaLatin AmericaSaudi ArabiaMiddle EastFor Terra IndustriesNext AfricaJennifer ZabasajaAAPLPRIVATE
– The company plans to raise a larger funding round to support its growth.
– There is a growing demand for low-cost drone systems in asymmetric warfare contexts.
– Emerging markets are increasingly adopting advanced military technologies.
– The threats faced in Africa are transferable to other regions, creating wider market opportunities.
defense technologyemerging marketsdrone systems
▸ Full transcript
is somewhat costly in comparison to the low cost that these components or technologies are being used in the hands of non-state groups. That's where companies like Terra Industries see an opportunity. The company says it has already tested some of these systems with governments across West Africa. We are building out a regional network of factories across the continent. We are also starting to work with other emerging markets, such as in Latin America, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East because essentially the threats that we are facing here have become very transferable across the emerging markets. For Terra Industries, the next challenge is scaling. The company says it plans to raise a larger funding round in the coming months as it expands manufacturing across Africa and other emerging markets. That's Next Africa for this month. But don't forget our weekly podcast for more of what's happening across the continent. That's available on Apple, Spotify, and wherever you usually get your podcasts. You can also, of course, subscribe to our daily Next Africa newsletter, available on the terminal and website for even more reporting from the Bloomberg team. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja in Johannesburg. See you next time. Some see heroes. Others only egos. We see the era of billionaire athletes. While others follow the norm.
Analysis

Terra Industries is positioning itself to capitalize on the growing demand for low-cost, intelligence-centric drone systems in emerging markets, particularly in Africa and Latin America. The company plans to scale its manufacturing capabilities and is preparing for a larger funding round to support this expansion.

Smart investors should note the shift towards advanced warfare technologies in emerging markets, as traditional military systems may not meet the unique challenges faced in these regions. The transferability of threats across markets suggests a broader opportunity for companies like Terra Industries to innovate and capture market share in defense technology.

16:23
PDT
Terra Industries raised $34 million for drone technology.
Terra IndustriesNathan WachukuMaxwell MadukaJoe LonsdaleLUBS CapitalAccraGhanaUkraineCEOLUBSWest Africa
– The company plans to scale production to 50,000 units in two years.
– Focus on asymmetric warfare solutions tailored for Africa.
– Establishment of a manufacturing hub in Accra, Ghana.
– Shift towards advanced warfare technology in emerging markets.
defense technologyemerging marketsasymmetric warfarelocal manufacturing
▸ Full transcript
Terra Industries is a Nigerian startup founded by CEO Nathan Wachuku with co-founder Maxwell Maduka. Backed by $34 million in seed funding from investors including pollinators Joe Lonsdale and LUBS Capital, the company is developing both drones and the systems designed to counter them. The kind of war that Africa is fighting, and to be honest, the kind of war that most of the emerging markets are fighting is asymmetric warfare against terrorism. The doctrines are different. The kind of systems needed are different. You would need a lot more treatable, low-cost, and intelligence-centric systems. You also need systems that can survive the very harsh terrain, especially of Africa, which a lot of the systems from the West are not suitable for. Now, the company is expanding beyond Nigeria, opening its first international factory in Accra, Ghana's capital city. The facility will serve as its main regional manufacturing hub, with plans to scale production from several hundred units today to as many as 50,000 drones and counter-drone systems within two years. Nowhere has the effectiveness of battlefield drones been more apparent than the war in Ukraine, but they also have become a critical part of conflicts across West Africa. Analysts say this marks a shift from traditional tactics to more advanced forms of warfare, and part of that shift is being driven by access to cheap, widely available technology.
Analysis

Terra Industries, a Nigerian startup, has secured $34 million in seed funding to develop drones and counter-drone systems tailored for asymmetric warfare in Africa. The company plans to expand its production capacity significantly, aiming to manufacture up to 50,000 units within two years, marking a shift towards advanced warfare technology in the region.

Investors should note the strategic move of Terra Industries to establish a manufacturing hub in Ghana, which could enhance regional supply chains and reduce reliance on Western technology. This shift not only reflects the growing demand for localized defense solutions but also highlights the potential for emerging markets to innovate in response to unique security challenges.

16:17
PDT
African pension funds are growing rapidly, requiring innovative investment products.
Andrew FurmanKaleo VenturesAfrican pension fundsUSDXY
– Traditional investment models are becoming inadequate for the evolving pension landscape.
– Valuations in Africa are seen as attractive despite perceived risks.
– Investors are shifting focus towards necessity-driven solutions.
– The risk-reward balance is crucial for attracting international investment.
pension fund growthinvestment riskvaluation attractivenessnecessity-driven solutions
▸ Full transcript
The pension funds are ballooning, right? So we're seeing billions of dollars in the African pension landscape. The armchair products that they had in the past can no longer meet the demands for pensions investments. So you're seeing that there's also a forcing element that we need to think about new products. We can't just rely on this traditional base because our funds and the management are outstripping that. I also caught up with Andrew Furman, managing partner and co-founder of Kaleo Ventures for a view of how international investors are looking at Africa. If you're viewing everything on sort of equal footing, anything we do in Africa is gonna be more risky than the US. I think the approach we wanna take is how are we being compensated for that risk? And one of those is obviously gonna be a valuation question. In our minds, valuation is a lot more attractive in Africa, even if we adjust for some of those Africa risks that a lot of Western investors see. So yes, in a lot of ways, you take some of those models that, as I said, might be more medium or asset heavy. There might be some more inherent risks. However, if we're saying we're adding some risks because of that kind of model, but we're now solving a core problem as opposed to maybe a nice to have solution in Africa, that might actually offset it. Where if you're solving something that people really absolutely need can't live without in a way that then that's a lot less risky. So again.
Analysis

The African pension landscape is experiencing significant growth, with billions of dollars in pension funds that are outpacing traditional investment products. This shift necessitates the development of new investment solutions to meet the evolving demands of pension investments.

International investors perceive African valuations as more attractive despite inherent risks, particularly when addressing core problems that are essential for local populations. This perspective suggests a potential shift in investment strategies, focusing on necessity-driven solutions rather than luxury or non-essential offerings.

16:14
PDT
Venture capital investments in Africa dipped to just under $3 billion but are showing signs of meaningful growth.
AfricaTakumba IsmailAlithia CapitalUSMoneyPointGemSimon EllisWhatsAppChadIvory CoastMadagascarSomalia
– Domestic investors now account for 45% of funding, indicating a shift in the investment landscape.
– Startups are increasingly favoring debt financing over equity due to global economic uncertainties.
– 26% of funding came from the US, highlighting the importance of foreign investment.
– The focus is shifting towards businesses with strong operational fundamentals.
venture capital trendsdebt financingdomestic investmentstartup resilience
▸ Full transcript
Volatility is also important because it's not just how do you stabilize based on geopolitical events, but how do you stabilize for your local currency? So you're looking for resilience all around. What you've also seen, if we're looking at numbers, is that at its height about three years ago, I think the VC market was around $5 billion in that year in terms of investments. But what you've seen is a bit of a dip in the last couple of years where that's gone down to just under $3 billion, where you're now seeing, yes, from that $3 billion level, it's growing, but it's growing more meaningfully and with more resilience and more fundamentally driven. And we've also noticed in our next edition of Africa's 25 startups to watch, it's quite interesting that actually 26% of funding came from the US while African investors, which speaks to your point, accounted for 45%, which maybe sort of speaks to what you're saying. Well, there are a couple of things at play. I expect that, yes, we will see an increase in the domestic base. I also expect that we're going to see the foreign investors begin to come back as they see the quality of what's been invested.
Analysis

The venture capital landscape in Africa is showing signs of resilience, with a notable shift towards more fundamentally driven businesses. Domestic investors are increasing their share of funding, accounting for 45% of investments, while foreign investment is expected to rebound as the quality of startups improves.

The trend towards debt financing over equity among startups indicates a cautious approach to capital raising amid global uncertainties. This shift reflects a growing emphasis on operational discipline and unit economics, which could reshape the investment landscape in the region.

16:12
PDT
African startups attracted over $5 billion in investment in 2025.
AFCAPartec AfricaAlithia CapitalTakumba IsmailAINext AfricaJennifer Zabasaja
– Tech sector funding rose 25% to just over $4 billion.
– Investors are prioritizing businesses that solve real-world problems.
– Sectors like fintech, clean tech, and health tech continue to receive backing.
– The era of unchecked growth funded by capital is shifting towards operational discipline.
startup investmentoperational resilienceAfrican fintech
▸ Full transcript
Next year, deliveries and consumer expectations for speed and convenience have completely shifted. Automation and robotics will have an important role to play in the future. Welcome back to Next Africa. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. Investment into African startups held up in 2025, even as funding conditions tightened. According to AFCA, more than $5 billion was invested in African startups last year, with deal activity also rising. In the tech sector, the picture was likewise resilient. Data from Partec Africa shows startup funding rose 25% to just over $4 billion. And while global venture capital is chasing AI, Africa's market focused on businesses solving real-world problems, with investors continuing to back sectors like fintech, clean tech, and health tech. I caught up with Takumba Ismail, co-founder and managing director for Alithia Capital for the view from investors on the ground. People have been looking at more fundamentally driven businesses. The age of just grow it and, you know, blitz it with, throw money at it to grow it and they'll come is gone. It's how can you build more resilient...
Analysis

Investment into African startups remained robust in 2025, with over $5 billion invested despite tightening funding conditions. The focus has shifted towards fundamentally driven businesses, emphasizing resilience over rapid growth fueled by capital infusion.

16:10
PDT
Gem utilizes WhatsApp to streamline HR processes for deskless workers.
GemSimon EllisCape TownAlithia CapitalTakumba IsmailKaleo VenturesAndrew FurmanHRCEO
– Employees can access payslips and other documents without downloading new apps.
– The approach enhances user experience and operational efficiency.
– Startups are increasingly focusing on familiar platforms to engage users.
– This trend may disrupt traditional HR practices in Africa.
HR technologystartup innovationuser experience
▸ Full transcript
Some more than the other. But I'd say within the next couple of years, it will become very, very clear which director will be more suitable for us. But these options are on the table. Up next, the venture capital trends reshaping Africa. We speak to Alithia Capital's Takumba Ismail for a view from investors on the ground and Kaleo Ventures' Andrew Furman on how international investors are looking at the continent. But first, Gem is a Cape Town-based startup that's building an HR platform for deskless workers. CEO and co-founder Simon Ellis shared more about his vision behind the startup. We built things on top of WhatsApp that enable an employer to connect and communicate with their workforce using WhatsApp, a tool that everyone has. Instead of an employee having to download an app or log into a new email to get something small like a payslip, you can just get it on WhatsApp. The same applies for leave, for timesheets, for pretty much anything that you would need to do, an increased letter. And so we've applied the customer experience, that is this beautiful WhatsApp-native experience that we all use, and applied it to running the day-to-day lives of a business. So I think this WhatsApp thing has been a total game changer for us, but you can understand why an employee who previously had to wait in a line to get a printed payslip now loves being able to access their payslip through a familiar channel.
Analysis

Gem, a Cape Town-based startup, is revolutionizing HR for deskless workers by leveraging WhatsApp for communication, allowing employees to access payslips and other essential documents without needing additional apps. This innovative approach enhances user experience and streamlines operations for businesses, showcasing the potential of familiar platforms in improving workplace efficiency.

The shift towards using established communication tools like WhatsApp indicates a growing trend among startups to prioritize user-friendly solutions that minimize friction in employee engagement. Investors should note that this model could disrupt traditional HR practices and create significant opportunities in the HR tech space across Africa.

16:05
PDT
MoneyPoint processes $22 billion in transactions monthly.
MoneyPointFelix E.K.AfricaCTO
– The company has disbursed around $1 trillion in loans to small businesses.
– Unicorn status is concentrated in Africa's fintech sector.
– Startups are increasingly focusing on operational discipline and debt financing.
– The shift indicates a cautious approach to growth in the current economic climate.
fintech growthAfrican startupsdebt financingunicorn status
▸ Full transcript
In 2015, MoneyPoint has grown into one of the continent's standout success stories, from powering payments for small businesses to building critical financial infrastructure. The company has scaled rapidly and earned its place among Africa's most valuable tech firms. I spoke to Felix E.K., the company's co-founder and CTO, about their journey from startup to unicorn and what it takes to build at scale in Africa's fast-evolving tech landscape. Right now, MoneyPoint processes about $22 billion worth of transactions monthly across one billion transactions. We process over 80% of the purest transactions in the country and have also disbursed around $1 trillion worth of loans to small businesses. All of this is positioning ourselves to ensure that our business succeeds and our customers succeed because the primary objective of MoneyPoint is to help our business succeed. So far, that's the journey. I wanted to touch on the unicorn status that I was mentioning because we talk about it; there are obviously quite a lot more unicorns in different parts of the world, but in Africa, you really are part of a group of just a few. It's very much concentrated in fintechs and digital financial services. How much weight do you put behind?
Analysis

MoneyPoint has emerged as a leading fintech in Africa, processing approximately $22 billion in transactions monthly and disbursing around $1 trillion in loans to small businesses. The company's growth highlights the increasing importance of digital financial services in the continent's economic landscape, particularly as it achieves unicorn status amidst a concentration of similar successes in the fintech sector.

Investors should note the shift towards operational discipline and debt financing among African startups, indicating a more cautious approach to growth amid global economic uncertainties. This trend suggests that while the fintech sector is thriving, companies are prioritizing sustainability and risk management over rapid expansion.

16:03
PDT
Smaller manufacturers are squeezed by rising aluminum prices and competition.
Wolf-tooth componentsBoeingMiddle EastChadIvory CoastMadagascarSomaliaBloombergFelix E.K.Arjit GhoshUAECTO
– Potential for increased consumer prices and inflation due to aluminum supply issues.
– African startups are focusing on operational discipline and debt financing.
– Innovative solutions are emerging in underserved markets, such as telemedicine kiosks.
– Geopolitical factors are delaying recovery in the aluminum market.
supply chain riskAfrican startup financinginflationary pressures
▸ Full transcript
And so kind of we're seeing like a triple whammy now if you will. Smaller manufacturers like Wolf-tooth components not only have to contend with higher prices for the metal they need, but also have to compete against bigger, more powerful players that also use aluminum. The squeeze could eventually raise prices across the board for consumers, triggering another bout of inflation. There's really no viable alternative to aluminum in our case. And you'd hear the same thing if you ask Boeing, like, they're still going to use tons of aluminum in the airplanes, no matter what the price is. And the price of those airplanes will just go up. Same with our bicycle parts. As the war drags on, so does the timeline for prices to stabilize. Back in Norway, Kristofferson says the outlook is far from certain. So in the aluminum market, I think we see a bit the same situation as you see in the energy markets, where you have quite high prices in the front end, meaning metals to be delivered in the coming month. But then you have a declining price, a backwardation situation in the markets with lower prices folding down to $3,000 per tonne a couple of years out in time. So it will take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for the Middle East supply that's been affected to come back into the market. And then you need 60 days to ship to North America that you add to this. So we're heading for a supply shock. Our prices of our products aren't gonna go up 20%. They're gonna go up like three or 5%. And I like Boeing. I mean, I'm trying to poo poo with them at all, but we don't have the negotiating power that say they have or an automaker has. And when these prices change or tariffs change, I see that almost the same day. I mean, not joking sometimes. Well, I didn't start this small business because I wanted to learn about tariffs or deal with massive supply chain issues or deal with geopolitics. Those are, in fact, some of my least favorite things, bicycles are way more fun than that stuff. With all the back and forth of tariffs and wars, it's hard to see how U.S. policy at the moment is helping American manufacturers or American consumers. And this is one problem that the marketplace can't fix on its own. That does it for us here at Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories of capitalism. Commerce has completely transformed over the past couple of decades. With same-day groceries and next-day deliveries, consumer expectations for speed and convenience have completely shifted. Back control of the strait in order to allow Gulf Arab oil out onto international markets. And remember some of that oil is going out through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in any event. But we prohibit the exportation of Iranian oil, open the rest of the strait to get the Arab oil out, calm the markets down. I think we should be prepared to take the time necessary to overthrow the regime. We'll regret it if we let them up and find out later. Don't miss Balance of Power live every weekday. African startups held up in 2025. We speak with venture capital investors on opportunities and challenges of investing on the continent. And we hear from MoneyPoint co-founder and CTO Felix E.K. on building one of Africa's leading fintech platforms. Welcome to Next Africa. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. For a second year, Bloomberg is taking a deep dive into Africa's startup culture. In our 2026 list of African startups to watch, Spotlight's a new wave of companies tackling some of the continent's most urgent challenges. This year's theme is urgency, with a focus on companies building solutions where infrastructure gaps and strained systems have left millions underserved. For a closer look at the innovators that made the cut this year, we're now joined by Bloomberg managing editor for Africa, that is Arjit Ghosh. Arjit, thank you so much for being here. As I was mentioning there, this is the second year that Bloomberg is doing the startups to watch this. Let's just start with the theme, urgency. Give us some context as to how that came about and why you felt like this was the year for this theme. And thank you, Jennifer, and that's a great question. So the urgency, as you rightly mentioned, there are so many other challenges on this continent that companies are trying to solve, especially the startups. And that's what we thought we will kind of focus emergency at the Sierra B. You know if you look at other countries like the US for instance The big focus is AI. Yeah, right, but here in Africa companies are really trying to solve everyday challenges.
Analysis

Smaller manufacturers are facing increased pressure from rising aluminum prices and competition from larger players, which could lead to higher consumer prices and inflation. The aluminum market is experiencing a supply shock, with a significant timeline for recovery due to geopolitical factors affecting Middle Eastern supply.

Investors should note the shift in African startups towards operational discipline and debt financing over equity, reflecting a cautious approach amid global uncertainties. The emergence of innovative solutions, such as telemedicine kiosks in Chad, highlights the potential for growth in underserved markets despite the challenges.

16:01
PDT
African startups are increasingly focused on solving urgent local challenges.
BloombergJennifer ZabasajaArjit GhoshMoneyPointFelix E.K.CTOUSAINext AfricaPRIVATE
– The theme of urgency reflects a shift from global tech trends to localized solutions.
– Investors should consider the unique context of African markets when evaluating opportunities.
– Infrastructure gaps present both challenges and opportunities for startups.
– The fintech sector remains a key area of growth in Africa.
African startupsinfrastructure solutionsfintech growth
▸ Full transcript
African startups held up in 2025. We speak with venture capital investors on opportunities and challenges of investing on the continent. And we hear from MoneyPoint co-founder and CTO Felix E.K. on building one of Africa's leading fintech platforms. Welcome to Next Africa. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja. For a second year, Bloomberg is taking a deep dive into Africa's startup culture. In our 2026 list of African startups to watch, Spotlight's a new wave of companies tackling some of the continent's most urgent challenges. This year's theme is urgency, with a focus on companies building solutions where infrastructure gaps and strained systems have left millions underserved. For a closer look at the innovators that made the cut this year, we're now joined by Bloomberg managing editor for Africa, that is Arjit Ghosh. Arjit, thank you so much for being here. As I was mentioning there, this is the second year that Bloomberg is doing the startups to watch this. Let's just start with the theme, urgency. Give us some context as to how that came about and why you felt like this was the year for this theme. And thank you, Jennifer, and that's a great question. So the urgency, as you rightly mentioned, there are so many other challenges on this continent that companies are trying to solve, especially the startups. And that's what we thought we will kind of focus emergency at the Sierra B. You know if you look at other countries like the US for instance, the big focus is AI. Yeah, right, but here in Africa companies are really trying to solve everyday.
Analysis

Bloomberg's 2026 list of African startups highlights a focus on urgency, addressing critical infrastructure gaps and challenges faced by millions on the continent. This year's theme underscores the pressing need for innovative solutions in a region where traditional investment trends, like AI, are less applicable.

15:59
PDT
U.S. policy may lead to increased volatility in oil prices.
IranSaudi ArabiaUAEGulf ArabBalance of PowerCL=F
– Long-term strategy suggested for dealing with Iran could impact supply dynamics.
– Gulf Arab oil exports are crucial for stabilizing markets.
– Potential for supply shocks in energy and commodities markets.
geopolitical riskoil supply dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Back control of the strait in order to allow Gulf Arab oil out onto international markets. And remember, some of that oil is going out through pipelines in Saudi Arabia and the UAE in any event. But we prohibit the exportation of Iranian oil, open the rest of the strait to get the Arab oil out, calm the markets down. I think we should be prepared to take the time necessary to overthrow the regime. We'll regret it if we let them up and find out later. Don't miss Balance of Power live every weekday.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the geopolitical tensions affecting oil exports from Iran and the broader implications for Gulf Arab oil markets. The suggestion to take time to overthrow the Iranian regime indicates a long-term strategy that could impact oil supply dynamics significantly.

Smart money should note that the U.S. policy on Iranian oil exports could lead to increased volatility in global oil prices, especially if Gulf Arab oil flows are disrupted. The potential for a prolonged conflict may create supply shocks that ripple through various markets, particularly in energy and commodities.

15:56
PDT
Aluminum supply chain disruptions are expected to last 12-18 months.
IranQatarBahrainEmiratesU.S.CanadaWolftooth ComponentsBoeingWall Street WeekDavid Weston
– Smaller manufacturers face challenges in negotiating prices due to their limited power compared to larger companies.
– Rising aluminum prices could trigger inflation across consumer goods.
– The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is exacerbating shipping delays.
– U.S. policy on tariffs is complicating the situation for American manufacturers.
supply chain riskinflationary pressurestariff impacts
▸ Full transcript
Our prices of our products aren't going to go up 20%. They're going to go up like three or 5%. And I like Boeing. I mean, I'm trying to downplay them at all, but we don't have the negotiating power that, say, they have or an automaker has. And when these prices change or tariffs change, I see that almost the same day. I mean, not joking sometimes. Well, I didn't start this small business because I wanted to learn about tariffs or deal with massive supply chain issues or deal with geopolitics. Those are, in fact, some of my least favorite things; bicycles are way more fun than that stuff. With all the back and forth of tariffs and wars, it's hard to see how U.S. policy at the moment is helping American manufacturers or American consumers. And this is one problem that the marketplace can't fix on its own. That does it for us here at Wall Street Week. I'm David Weston. See you next week for more stories of capitalism. Commerce has completely transformed over the past couple of decades. With same-day groceries and next-day deliveries, consumer expectations for speed and convenience have completely shifted.
Analysis

The ongoing war in Iran is causing significant disruptions in the aluminum supply chain, particularly affecting production and distribution in the Middle East. Smaller manufacturers in the U.S. are feeling the pinch from rising aluminum prices and supply chain challenges, which could lead to broader inflationary pressures as they struggle to compete with larger players.

15:54
PDT
Aluminum prices are expected to rise due to supply disruptions.
Wolf-tooth ComponentsBoeingIranQatarBahrainEmiratesMiddle EastNorth AmericaMETA
– Smaller manufacturers face competitive disadvantages against larger firms.
– Inflationary pressures may increase as aluminum prices rise.
– Supply recovery from the Middle East could take 12 to 18 months.
– Shipping delays add to the supply chain challenges.
supply chain riskinflationary pressuresgeopolitical impact
▸ Full transcript
And so kind of we're seeing like a triple whammy now if you will. Smaller manufacturers like Wolf-tooth Components not only have to contend with higher prices for the metal they need, but also have to compete against bigger, more powerful players that also use aluminum. The squeeze could eventually raise prices across the board for consumers, triggering another bout of inflation. There's really no viable alternative to aluminum in our case. And you'd hear the same thing if you ask Boeing, like, they're still going to use tons of aluminum in the airplanes, no matter what the price is. And the price of those airplanes will just go up. Same with our bicycle parts. As the war drags on, so does the timeline for prices to stabilize. Back in Norway, Kristofferson says the outlook is far from certain. So in the aluminum market, I think we see a bit the same situation as you see in the energy markets, where you have quite high prices in the front end, meaning metals to be delivered in the coming month. But then you have a declining price, a backwardation situation in the markets with lower prices folding down to $3,000 per tonne a couple of years out in time. So it will take anywhere between 12 to 18 months for the Middle East supply that's been affected to come back into the market. And then you need 60 days to ship to North America that you add to this. So we're heading for a supply shock.
Analysis

The aluminum market is facing significant supply disruptions due to the ongoing war in Iran, leading to higher prices and potential inflationary pressures for consumers. Smaller manufacturers like Wolf-tooth Components are particularly vulnerable, as they compete with larger players for limited aluminum supplies, which could trigger a broader price increase across various sectors.

The timeline for price stabilization is uncertain, with estimates suggesting it may take 12 to 18 months for affected Middle Eastern supply to return to the market. This prolonged disruption, combined with shipping delays, indicates a looming supply shock that could impact multiple industries reliant on aluminum, from aerospace to consumer goods.

15:51
PDT
Aluminum supply is severely impacted by the war in Iran.
Brendan MooreWolftooth ComponentsIranMiddle EastQatarBahrainEmiratesU.S.AsiaCanadaMETA
– Manufacturers are struggling to source aluminum due to geopolitical tensions.
– Raising prices in consumer goods is complex and may not be immediate.
– The Asian market is particularly vulnerable to aluminum supply disruptions.
– U.S. aluminum sourcing preferences are shifting but may not alleviate price pressures.
supply chain riskgeopolitical tensionsinflationary pressures
▸ Full transcript
Transportation from trains and trucks to mopeds and bikes. And that's where Brendan Moore comes in. Fundamentally, aluminum is one of the primary materials used on a bicycle. The reason is it's very light, very strong, reasonably priced; you know, it's not a super exotic metal. Moore's company, Wolftooth Components, makes premium bike parts that are shipped all over the world. His manufacturing plant is in the suburbs of Minneapolis, about 7,000 miles from the Strait of Hormuz, but he's still feeling the consequences of the war in Iran. We're a small company like us. We're not Boeing, so we don't get to say, 'Kaiser, send us 10 truckloads of aluminum.' We buy our aluminum through suppliers locally, and those suppliers will source that from various suppliers around the world. We don't get a lot of choice in where our aluminum comes from, but I can tell you that it's shifted, and we do have a preference for U.S. aluminum. Eventually, the only solution for a manufacturer like Moore might be to raise prices. But he says it's not so simple. In consumer goods, I would say it's not like when you go to the restaurant and there's like lobster pricing and it's like market rate. That's not how consumer goods work. And when prices of aluminum or raw material go in, we can't necessarily just like raise our prices right away. Raising prices, remember, does three really bad things: it upsets your customers, it puts you at a disadvantage to your competitors.
Analysis

The ongoing war in Iran is significantly disrupting the aluminum supply chain, impacting manufacturers globally, including small companies like Wolftooth Components. As aluminum prices rise due to supply constraints, manufacturers face challenges in passing these costs onto consumers, potentially leading to price increases in consumer goods.

Smart money should note that the aluminum supply crisis is not just a localized issue; it has global ramifications, particularly affecting the Asian market where a substantial amount of aluminum is sourced from the Middle East. The shift in sourcing preferences towards U.S. aluminum may not be enough to mitigate the price shocks, indicating a broader inflationary pressure across various sectors reliant on aluminum.

15:49
PDT
Aluminum supply crisis worsens, especially in Asia.
U.S.CanadaIranMiddle EastSamaritUnited StatesMETA
– U.S. aluminum prices rising, but mainly due to Canadian import dynamics.
– Tariffs have led to shipment diversions, impacting market stability.
– Middle East conflicts are exacerbating supply chain issues.
– Global price impacts are expected as supply chains remain disrupted.
supply chain risktariff impactgeopolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
We continue to operate around that level. It is a challenging situation with raw material access and also to get metal out from the region. But we are continuing to operate at that production level. And so is the U.S. now facing more of an aluminum crisis than other parts of the world? Well, the supply situation, I think, is impacted by the situation in the Middle East, which affects the supply situation in all markets. Physically, when it comes to supply, I think the Asian market is worse impacted because quite a lot of the metal from the Middle East is normally sold in Asia, around two and a half million tons. But the price impact is global. This isn't the first time the United States has imposed tariffs on Canadian aluminum. In 2018, when I was foreign minister, the trade spat between our two countries ended with the U.S. backing down. And although the U.S. is facing higher aluminum prices today, Samarit says that's not a direct effect of the war in Iran. That's because the vast majority of aluminum the United States imports comes from Canada. When the tariffs, the 50% tariffs were implemented, it created a price shock in the market for exporters into the U.S., as Canada is one of them. And basically, the reaction was to divert shipments to another market.
Analysis

The aluminum supply crisis is intensifying, particularly affecting the Asian market due to disruptions in the Middle East. While the U.S. faces higher aluminum prices, the primary impact stems from Canadian imports rather than the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Smart money should note that the diversion of shipments from Canada to other markets due to tariffs has created a price shock, indicating potential volatility in aluminum prices. The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that disruptions in one region can have far-reaching effects on pricing and availability across markets.

15:46
PDT
Aluminum production is severely impacted by the war in Iran.
IranQatarBahrainEmiratesStrait of HormuzUSMiddle East
– Energy supply issues are causing long-term operational challenges for smelters.
– The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is delaying shipments.
– Restarting smelters is a complex and slow process.
– Potential aluminum supply shock could affect downstream industries.
supply chain riskgeopolitical tensions
▸ Full transcript
The impact of the war in Iran could be long-lasting. Starting at the beginning of the crisis, a first curtailment happened in Qatar because of an energy supply situation, and then damage was done in Bahrain and then to the Altawila smelters in the Emirates. This is very significant because it will take a long time to bring it back. Smelters are very highly impacted by energy, and to restart a smelter, you have to do like if there is a supply problem with electricity for your house, you have to unplug everything and then replug one at a time, so they can only start back two cells a day out of hundreds and hundreds of cells. Production is just one part of the aluminum supply chain facing disruption. Distribution is another. Like so many of the world's exports, aluminum needs to be shipped often a long way, and shipments are snarled by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The problem is what's in front of us. The last ship to leave the Middle East just before the beginning of the crisis has made it to the US. There's no other ship on its way. It took 60 days to get there. So the full shock is ahead of us. I'm not too sure that all downstream transformers are going to be able to get there.
Analysis

The ongoing war in Iran is significantly disrupting aluminum production and distribution, with smelters facing long-term operational challenges due to energy supply issues. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is exacerbating the situation, leading to a potential supply shock in the aluminum market as shipments are delayed and production capabilities are hampered.

Smart money should note that the complexities of restarting smelters and the logistical hurdles in shipping could lead to a prolonged period of aluminum scarcity. This situation may not only affect aluminum prices but could also ripple through industries reliant on aluminum, highlighting vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

15:44
PDT
30% probability of reopening by end of June.
Donald TrumpIranChristopher FriedlandaluminumUSBloomberg CryptoUSDCNHPRIVATEMETACL=F
– Potential macro weakness in major economies if supplies are delayed.
– Aluminum supply significantly impacted by geopolitical tensions.
– Key industries may face challenges due to aluminum shortages.
– Tariffs on aluminum may not protect the industry amid global conflicts.
supply chain riskgeopolitical tensions
▸ Full transcript
Prediction markets are saying there's a 30% probability that you reopen it by the end of June. If you don't get these supplies back soon, then within the next three months, you should start to see macro weakness, not just in Europe, not just in China, but also in the US. Don't miss the opening trade, live every weekday. Bloomberg Crypto, Tuesdays only on Bloomberg. This is a story about trying to have it both ways. Since he first became president, Donald Trump has sought to protect the U.S. aluminum industry through tariffs. But the war in Iran may be taking us in a very different direction. Our colleague, Christopher Friedland, tells us a story of a key metal that is caught in the middle. Natural flavor. When you think about aluminum, the first thing that comes to mind might be tinfoil or soda cans. But it's also an essential component of cars, planes, and machinery. It's the world's most abundant metal, but even that hasn't kept aluminum safe from the fallout of war. The supply is now depleted by about half of the metal that used to be.
Analysis

Prediction markets indicate a 30% chance of reopening by the end of June, with potential macro weakness expected in the US, Europe, and China if supplies are not restored soon. The ongoing conflict in Iran is impacting the aluminum supply, which has been depleted by about half, affecting various industries reliant on this essential metal.

15:42
PDT
Inflation remains a key risk factor globally.
BloombergNetflixUrban OutfittersParamount SkydanceMorgan StanleyJohanna BersacciAl-AulaSaudi ArabiaAIPRIVATEDXY
– Morgan Stanley reports strong earnings, indicating resilience in financials.
– Retail sector performance is under scrutiny amid economic shifts.
– AI and crypto markets are experiencing significant volatility.
– Investor sentiment is cautious as earnings season progresses.
inflation riskearnings seasontech volatility
▸ Full transcript
We see the era of billionaire athletes, a fad to some, the future of money to others. We see crypto's trillion-dollar swings, the end of jobs, or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. Season is here. The planning season begins. Let's get right to it. Bloomberg is first to break the numbers. Netflix here crossing the terminal. Let's go to a retailer, Urban Outfitters. I'm looking at shares of Paramount Skydance. Morgan Stanley, another monster quarter. I love still to come. With the smartest insights, what are some of the sponsors and some of the CEOs talking about you? I think the biggest risk continues to be that inflation gets imported around the world again. Continuing coverage on Bloomberg. Bringing you up to the minute, global news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Johanna Bersacci in Al-Aula, Saudi Arabia, and this is Bloomberg.
Analysis

The financial landscape is witnessing significant shifts, with inflation risks being highlighted as a major concern for global markets. As companies like Morgan Stanley report strong earnings, the focus remains on the potential for imported inflation to disrupt economic stability.

Smart money should note the ongoing volatility in sectors influenced by technological advancements, particularly AI and crypto, which could lead to unpredictable market movements. The emphasis on earnings reports from major retailers and financial institutions suggests a critical period for assessing consumer behavior and economic resilience.

15:40
PDT
Poland's GDP reached $1 trillion last year.
PolandAndrzej DymanskiPetrashewskaVividQVastPointMcKinseyGDPUS
– Defense spending is projected to reach 5% of GDP by 2025.
– The digital industry is expected to grow from $44 billion to $123 billion by 2030.
– Demographic challenges could shrink the labor force by 20% by 2050.
– Investment in education and R&D is crucial for sustainable growth.
economic growthdefense spendingdigital industrydemographic challenges
▸ Full transcript
Education in research and development and in other pro-growth policies. We are quite satisfied with our present growth trajectory, so we may not be well motivated to invest in research and development, to invest in new educational policies, because so far it's good. But in the future, the current growth model of the Polish economy may not be sufficient. As they say, getting to the top is one thing, staying there is another. Poland's growth is a success story, but its next test will be sustaining it. A lot of the success of Poland so far has been, unfortunately, playing catch-up. I think once you join, you know, the 20 biggest economies in the world, or the 20 economies with the biggest GDP per capita, it really becomes about what is the limit of your growth and where do you need to seek it if playing catch-up is not going to work out that well anymore. But in the end, for Poland, as it is for many countries, the key is making sure that the best of the brightest can go home again and stay there. I could have stayed in London, raised a fund there. I could have thought about maybe moving to the US and effectively starting over, but I decided to take a step, which I don't think is a step back, but...
Analysis

Poland's economy is experiencing significant growth, reaching a GDP of $1 trillion last year, but faces challenges in sustaining this momentum. The country must invest in research, development, and education to maintain its competitive edge as it transitions from a catch-up phase to a more mature economic model.

The return of skilled professionals to Poland indicates a vibrant startup ecosystem, yet the government must address demographic challenges and potential tax increases to support elevated defense spending. Smart money should note that Poland's growth trajectory may hinge on its ability to retain talent and adapt to changing economic conditions.

15:36
PDT
Poland's defense spending is nearing 5% of GDP.
PolandAndrzej DymanskiVividQVastPointGDP
– Tax hikes may be necessary to manage high deficits.
– Labor force expected to shrink by 20% by 2050.
– Investment in upskilling and reskilling is critical.
– Poland's startup scene is vibrant and focused on technology.
defense spendingdemographic challengestechnology investment
▸ Full transcript
We probably need to face the fact that elevated military spending requires some tax hikes. We don't want to start consolidating our public finances when we are under external pressure because then it's more painful. We spent close to 5% of our GDP on defense, which is close to 50 billion euros per year. Of course, we run a high deficit, and we are taking some steps to lower it gradually. We believe that we are not in a position to cut spending on defense. Another challenge lies in demographics for Poland, as in much of the western world. By 2050, our labor force will shrink by about 20%. This is one large factor. Secondly, the average age of an employee is increasing, which also matters for productivity. While older workers can certainly work with modern technologies, they may need more support than younger workers. Therefore, we need to invest more in policies that allow upskilling, reskilling, and adjusting skills to these new technologies.
Analysis

Poland's defense spending is projected to reach close to 5% of GDP, necessitating potential tax hikes to manage the high deficit. Additionally, demographic challenges are looming, with a projected 20% shrinkage in the labor force by 2050, highlighting the need for investment in upskilling and reskilling initiatives.

Smart money should note that while Poland's economy is currently robust, the combination of high military expenditure and a declining workforce could strain public finances and productivity. The emphasis on technology and innovation in the startup scene may provide a counterbalance, but sustained growth will depend on addressing these demographic challenges effectively.

15:33
PDT
Poland's GDP growth is supported by diverse sectors, including defense and digital industries.
PolandVividQVastPointMcKinseyEuropean UnionGDPEUEastern Europe
– Defense spending is set to increase significantly due to geopolitical tensions.
– The digital sector is projected to triple in size by 2030.
– Poland's startup ecosystem is thriving, attracting venture capital.
– The country's integration with EU economies enhances its market potential.
defense spendingdigital industry growthventure capitalstartup ecosystem
▸ Full transcript
The diversified Polish economy is well integrated with other European Union economies. We are well integrated with global value chains. At the same time, we are quite an important market of 37 million people, so we have a strong domestic market. There are many engines of Polish GDP growth. Drivers of Poland's economic growth include a range of services as well as manufacturing. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has led to a sharp uptick in defense spending, projected to account for almost 5% of GDP in 2025, the highest in the EU. Its digital industry is also growing fast. McKinsey estimates the current $44 billion sector will grow to $123 billion in 2030, accounting for 9% of GDP. It's Petrashevska's domain. She co-founded VividQ, a British company developing holographic display technology in 2017. But on her return to Poland, she started VastPoint, a venture capital firm focused on tech startups in Central and Eastern Europe. The startup scene is very vibrant, and I think about this word. I think it really represents what's currently going on. I think that this ambition and this certainty that whatever is being built from here or by Polish teams has this potential of becoming a global solution.
Analysis

Poland's economy is experiencing significant growth, driven by a diverse range of services and manufacturing, with defense spending projected to reach almost 5% of GDP by 2025. The digital industry is also on a rapid ascent, expected to grow from $44 billion to $123 billion by 2030, highlighting the potential for Polish tech startups to deliver global solutions.

Investors should note the vibrant startup scene in Poland, particularly in the tech sector, as it presents opportunities for high returns. The combination of a strong domestic market and integration with global value chains positions Poland as a key player in the European economy, making it an attractive destination for venture capital investment.

15:31
PDT
Poland's GDP surpassed $1 trillion.
PolandAndrzej DymanskiG20UKEUGDPUSNational Statistics AgencyDXY
– The country is invited to the G20 summit.
– Return of expatriates is boosting the tech sector.
– Opportunities in R&D are more visible now than in the past.
– Poland's economic transformation has been significant since 1989.
emerging marketstechnology sector growth
▸ Full transcript
to stay in the UK. But that was then. Now the well-trodden path is heading in the other direction. Poland is booming. Its economy topped $1 trillion last year, and this year it will be invited to the G20 summit. And its citizens living abroad, a figure that was steadily climbing after it joined the EU in 2004, peaked in 2017 and has been dropping ever since, although Poland's National Statistics Agency adjusted its methodology in 2022. Among those returning is Petrashewska. They think a lot has changed, and especially for people like me with the background like I had, I wanted to work on the edge of new technologies. I really wanted to be exposed to the best R&D, the best teams that are building effectively the future of what the technology sector is. I don't think that these opportunities were as obvious 10 years ago, and as available as they are now. Actually, our performance started in 1989. Andrzej Dymanski is Poland's minister of finance and economy. And in 1989, we had a GDP of 67 billion US dollars. Last year, GDP of Poland reached 1 trillion. There was only one country in that period that had high.
Analysis

Poland's economy has reached a significant milestone, surpassing $1 trillion in GDP and earning an invitation to the G20 summit. This growth is attracting citizens back home, particularly those with technology backgrounds seeking opportunities in R&D and innovation.

Smart money should note the shift in Poland's labor market dynamics, as returning expatriates may enhance the local tech ecosystem. The historical context of Poland's economic transformation since 1989 underscores the potential for continued growth and investment in emerging technologies.

15:29
PDT
Private debt capital is increasingly important for financing data center projects.
DavidDana NesselMichiganPew Research CenterAmazonBloomberg TechSan FranciscoWall Street WeekBloomberg TelevisionOn Bloomberg WealthPRIVATE
– Projected investments in data centers exceed $3 trillion, indicating a long-term commitment.
– Community concerns about environmental impacts could hinder future data center developments.
– Transparency in contracts is essential to ensure fair deals for ratepayers.
– The technology landscape's rapid evolution poses risks to the sustainability of data center investments.
private debt capitaldata center investmentcommunity impactcontract transparency
▸ Full transcript
We want to help these players develop to bring their product to market. I think it will be possible to make changes to our genome. Technology has been the driver to more abundance in productivity. Bloomberg Tech decode the future. June 3rd and 4th in San Francisco. Bloomberg. Good morning. Good morning. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Welcome back to the opening trade. Watch. This is the Asia trade. This is Wall Street Week. Welcome to Balance of Power. You're watching Bloomberg deals. Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend. This is Bloomberg Television. People ask me all the time, what is the key to being a really good investor? I tell them it's to surround yourself with and work with the best investors you can find. On Bloomberg Wealth, I'm going to take you to meet the greatest investors in the world, the people that I would like to have managing my money. You really have to love what you do. I think a lot of people work in financial services because they view it as a path to wealth. This is a great country. You will find the money or the money will find you. This is a story about going home again. The narrative of Europe in recent years has too often been about lack of growth. But there are exceptions. It turns out that Poland is one of the world's fastest growing economies. And although it's now attracting its best and brightest to come home to build their businesses, tough challenges still lie ahead.
Analysis

The emergence of private debt capital is becoming significant in financing projects, particularly in the data center sector, which has seen projected investments surpassing $3 trillion. Concerns from local communities regarding environmental impacts and the long-term viability of these investments highlight the need for better policies and transparency in contracts to protect ratepayers and taxpayers alike.

Investors should note the potential risks associated with data centers, including community pushback and the financial burden on local ratepayers if projects fail. The evolving technology landscape raises questions about the sustainability of these investments, making it crucial for stakeholders to consider both immediate and long-term implications.

15:25
PDT
Data centers projected to require long-term financial commitments.
Dana NesselMichiganPew Research CenterAmazonAICeline Township
– Concerns about environmental impact and community acceptance are rising.
– Ratepayers may face increased costs if data centers fail.
– Long-term contracts could obscure exit fees and financial risks.
– Bipartisan interest in data center opportunities indicates a significant market focus.
data center investmentcommunity impactlong-term contractsregulatory scrutiny
▸ Full transcript
remains uncertain. In the event that the bubble bursts, and something happens in this hyperscale center in Celine Township is no longer needed, somebody is going to have to pay all of the extra costs of this new infrastructure, and who's going to pay it? Well, it's either going to be borne by the ratepayers in this state, and we already are subject to some of the highest rates and the worst reliability anywhere in the country, or it'll be the taxpayers. They'll have to bail out the utility companies who are making these, in some instances, terrible bets that AI is going to be around for a long time. If you look at these contracts, it's clear that the cost is supposed to be borne out not over the course of a few years, but over the course of really a few decades, up to something like 18 years. But we can't even see the exit fees in the next few years. Those that have encouraged these data centers to come here without any sort of guardrails at all, I think they've set us up for a very difficult future here. Which brings us back to those fences neighbors need. Gansi sees a way to build what's needed in a way that accommodates everyone and doesn't stand in the way of progress. You're seeing red states and blue states both look at the data center opportunity and quandary.
Analysis

Concerns are rising over the financial implications of data centers, particularly regarding who will bear the costs if these infrastructures become obsolete. The potential burden on ratepayers and taxpayers highlights the risks associated with long-term contracts tied to uncertain technological futures.

Smart investors should note the growing scrutiny on data center projects and the potential backlash from communities, which could lead to stricter regulations and impact future investments. The interplay between technological advancement and community acceptance will be crucial in shaping the landscape of digital infrastructure.

15:22
PDT
Contract transparency issues could impact investor confidence.
GansiMichigan Attorney GeneralPew Research CenterUPC
– Infrastructure investors are preparing for technological obsolescence.
– Ownership of physical assets provides strategic advantages.
– The evolution of technology raises risks for existing investments.
– Ratepayer interests may be compromised without clear contract visibility.
contract transparencyinfrastructure investmenttechnological obsolescence
▸ Full transcript
To some incredibly important information, you know, involving things like exit fees, what would happen upon the termination of the contract, even, you know, basic terms and definitions had been redacted. Customer credits, even the signatories to the contract had been redacted so that we can't even know who signed this contract or what company they're affiliated with, which is pretty insane when you think about it. How are we supposed to know whether or not ratepayers are getting a fair deal if we're not even allowed to see the contract itself? All of this comes against the backdrop of a rapidly evolving technology that is growing at a rate we've never seen before, raising questions about what happens if things evolve in ways that fall short of the best case. As an infrastructure investor, Gansi says they're ready for that. How do you anticipate the further growth, as well as the obsolescence of some of the technology you're putting in? Well, I think the great part about being the owner of the railroad is you don't own the actual cars that run on the tracks. We own the land, we build the power plant. Sometimes actually we're building power adjacent to the data center. We build the physical real estate structure inside the four walls. We bring the fiber connectivity. We bring the cooling. We bring the backup power. We create the data hall conditions where the UPC units are in and the cooling is in and the cable.
Analysis

Concerns are rising over the transparency of contracts related to infrastructure investments, particularly regarding exit fees and customer credits, which are heavily redacted. This lack of visibility raises questions about whether ratepayers are receiving fair deals amidst rapidly evolving technology, prompting investors to consider the implications of obsolescence in their infrastructure strategies.

Smart money should note that owning the underlying infrastructure, such as land and power plants, provides a buffer against technological changes, as these assets can adapt to new demands. The focus on building robust physical structures and connectivity highlights a strategic shift towards long-term resilience in the face of rapid technological evolution.

15:20
PDT
Michigan residents express significant concerns over data center impacts.
MichiganPew Research CenterDavidGansiBut Gansi
– Pew Research shows a majority view data centers negatively.
– Historical NIMBYism could affect future digital infrastructure projects.
– Community engagement is crucial for project acceptance.
– Data center growth may face regulatory challenges.
community engagementNIMBYismdata center growthenvironmental impact
▸ Full transcript
What it's going to mean for that community. They don't know what it's going to mean for their water. They don't know what it's going to mean in regard to noise pollution or other types of pollutants. Until we have some of those questions that can be more fully answered and better policies put in place at the state level, most people don't want to see these massive data centers continue to be erected. Michigan residents aren't the only ones with concerns. Pew Research Center found that an overwhelming share of Americans think data centers are mostly bad for the environment, home energy costs, and their overall quality of life. But Gansi says he's seen a version of this play before and that it can be handled in a way that satisfies the need for growth and the concerns of citizens. Do you need to take into account the reaction of the community? A hundred percent is a factor. I've been doing this for 32 years, building digital infrastructure. And where I got my sort of humble start was building cell towers, David, in 1994. And at that point in time, nobody wanted a cell tower in their backyard. And that was the rise of NIMBYism, not in my backyard. Well, the sector got organized. We navigated through it. We explained the benefits of mobile communications, emergency services, and ultimately the fact that most Americans wanted ubiquitous mobile coverage. And so that carried through the early 2000s and into 2010, 2020. And today you don't hear a lot of skirmishes around cell towers because largely the industry.
Analysis

Concerns are rising among Michigan residents regarding the environmental impact of new data centers, particularly related to water usage and pollution. A Pew Research Center study indicates that many Americans view data centers as detrimental to the environment and quality of life, highlighting a growing NIMBY sentiment that could hinder future developments.

Smart money should note that while the demand for digital infrastructure is increasing, the pushback from communities could lead to regulatory hurdles and delays. The historical context of NIMBYism suggests that industry players must proactively engage with communities to mitigate opposition and ensure smoother project approvals.

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