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17:56
PDT
Company revenue guidance suggests strong performance amid high expectations.
AlphabetCambodian Prime MinisterCambodian CabinetThailandChinaHong KongShanghaiShenzhenBloombergAverill HongThe ChinaBloomberg Equity IndicesPRIVATEUSDCNHGOOGL
– Tech sector shows resilience with positive futures trading.
– Alphabet's spending indicates bullish outlook for tech investments.
– Cambodian Prime Minister's upcoming interviews may impact regional trade perceptions.
– Market sentiment is leaning towards risk-on, particularly in equities.
tech sector growthregional trade dynamics
▸ Full transcript
The company says revenue for the next quarter will come in at around $5.6 to $6.1 billion, but it's confronting outsized expectations after a 70% stock gain this year. Take a look at how futures are trading as we're seeing a more risk-on session today. We continue to watch the tech sector after Alphabet's higher capital spending for this year. Do watch out for some of those tech names in the Taiwanese session as well. We'll stay tuned for a big conversation coming up tomorrow. Bloomberg's Averill Hong sits down with the Cambodian Prime Minister as well as other members of the Cambodian Cabinet for exclusive interviews in Penang, Pen. They'll be discussing the country's border issues with Thailand, relations with China, and much more. That's it from the Asia trade. Our markets coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trade in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen. The China show is next. This is Bloomberg. Equity indices built on opinions. That's the old way. The new way is Bloomberg Equity Indices, built using transparent, rules-based methodologies that are more responsive to changes in the markets, powered by 450 billion daily data points and backed by research from hundreds of global experts, delivering benchmarks driven by the markets, not opinions. Bloomberg Equity.
Analysis

The company projects revenue for the next quarter between $5.6 billion and $6.1 billion, facing heightened expectations following a 70% stock increase this year. Futures indicate a risk-on sentiment, particularly in the tech sector, as Alphabet's increased capital expenditure signals confidence in growth.

17:54
PDT
Asian markets are experiencing gains, particularly in tech and energy sectors.
BloombergKospiNikkei 225AIchip makersSydneyWall StreetBloomberg This WeekendPRIVATECL=F
– The Kospi rose by 3%, while the Nikkei 225 increased by 1.2%.
– Investors are optimistic about AI spending translating into profits.
– Oil prices continue to rise, benefiting energy-heavy indices.
– Market dynamics may shift as AI investments yield financial returns.
AI investmentenergy sector growth
▸ Full transcript
We're breaking news today from Wall Street to Washington. Turning the seasons underway, we're going to get some key reports. Everything you need to know before the markets open on Monday. Bloomberg This Weekend, bringing a little Bloomberg into your weekend routine. Guys, buckle up. Asian shares are broadly on the rise, despite some consternation when it comes to the AI and chip maker trade with some major catalysts coming through for investors looking for really the next signs of whether we're going to see that enormous AI spend translate into being able to pay off. But at the moment we are seeing some gains, the Kospi up by 3%, the Nikkei 225 also putting on 1.2%. Regional chip makers are gaining on these expectations that the benefit from the billions spent in the build-up for AI will start to come in, oil also extending that rally that's benefiting some of these energy-heavy gauges like here in Sydney.
Analysis

Asian shares are broadly rising, with the Kospi up by 3% and the Nikkei 225 gaining 1.2%, driven by optimism surrounding AI and chip makers. This rally is supported by expectations that significant investments in AI will soon yield financial returns, alongside a continuing rise in oil prices benefiting energy-heavy indices in regions like Sydney.

Investors should note the potential for a shift in market dynamics as the AI spending translates into tangible profits, which could reshape valuations in the tech sector. Additionally, the ongoing rally in oil prices may indicate a strengthening energy sector, which could have broader implications for inflation and economic growth.

17:52
PDT
Potential escalation of tariffs on China could disrupt trade relations.
ChinaUnited StatesDebra HelmsHeinrich FoundationUSDCNHPRIVATE
– U.S. preparing a second 301 investigation with 16 trading partners.
– Compliance costs for companies trading with the U.S. are increasing.
– Uncertainty remains over the stability of U.S.-China relations.
– Immediate application of tariffs may vary by sector.
trade tensionstariff escalationcompliance costs
▸ Full transcript
Labor trade activities are in line for a second 301 with another 16 trading partners for what the U.S. calls structural excess capacity. The two tariffs combined is an important figure that could easily derail any kind of cooperation at a summit next month, because those tariffs on China could escalate quite rapidly from what has been a relatively steady rate to a much higher rate, or potentially not. Again, we're uncertain where this is going to go. I think the Chinese are probably also uncertain about where Washington will ultimately land. It looks like Washington wants to have stable relations with China. However, because there are a number of pressures, both tariff and non-tariff, that are ahead, I think it's unclear whether this relative truce can continue to hold. Debra Helms, really good to speak to you as always, head of trade policy at the Heinrich Foundation. We have more on the Asia trade. This is Bloomberg.
Analysis

The U.S. is facing potential escalation of tariffs on China, with uncertainty surrounding the outcome of trade relations as pressures mount. This situation could derail cooperation at an upcoming summit, highlighting the fragility of the current truce between Washington and Beijing.

Smart money should note that the U.S. is preparing for a second 301 investigation with 16 trading partners, indicating a broader strategy to address structural excess capacity. The complexity and uncertainty of compliance costs are rising, which could impact companies engaged in trade with the U.S., regardless of the headline tariff rates.

17:47
PDT
Compliance costs for U.S. tariffs are rising despite lower headline rates.
Donald TrumpU.S. Bureau of Industry and SecurityCommerce DepartmentCanadaCanadian Foreign Minister Anita AnandBloombergTeslaSpaceXUnited States
– Different timelines for tariff applications reflect strategic priorities of the Trump administration.
– Companies must invest in training and legal support to manage tariff complexities.
– Uncertainty in trade relations with the U.S. could deter foreign investment.
– The potential for immediate tariff applications may create volatility in affected sectors.
trade uncertaintytariff compliance costs
▸ Full transcript
Because firms are not quite certain what they need to do, the processes used under each one of these different tariff rules are different. Companies need to ensure that they are training their staff on what the options are, that they keep the right paperwork, and that there is a lawyer involved to sue if necessary or be part of ongoing lawsuits. The complexity just continues to grow, and I think for companies, that level of uncertainty and the costs attached to compliance continue to escalate. Even if the tariffs themselves appear to be lower than they were, remember that heading into the Trump administration, it was a 2 percent tariff on average across the board. We're already closer to 20. Even if that drops to something, let's say 12 on average, the uncertainty costs need to be factored in as well as the compliance costs. So it's not just the headline figure on tariffs; it's also the damage being done to companies trying to engage in trade with the United States. There's also really uncertainty about the time frame. All of these deadlines for different tariffs are different. Excuse me. When it comes to the Canadian tariffs, it's within a month. When it comes to the pharma tariffs, though, I was surprised that it was until 2028. Why are we seeing this divergence, and what is the Trump administration trying to achieve through this? I think in some cases they want immediate application of tariffs, and the one that is causing...
Analysis

The complexity of compliance with U.S. tariffs continues to escalate, with companies facing increased uncertainty and costs despite lower headline tariff rates. The Trump administration's varied timelines for tariff applications suggest a strategic approach to exert immediate pressure on certain sectors while delaying others, potentially to manage political optics.

Smart money should note that the compliance costs and uncertainty surrounding tariffs may outweigh the benefits of lower rates, impacting companies' trade strategies with the U.S. The divergence in tariff timelines indicates a tactical maneuver by the Trump administration, which could lead to unpredictable market reactions as companies navigate these challenges.

17:45
PDT
U.S. threatens 50% tariffs on Canada under Section 338.
CanadaUnited StatesTrumpSection 338Great DepressionWhite HouseUnder Section
– Section 338 allows tariffs without investigation if U.S. discrimination is shown.
– This tool has been dormant since 1930, now potentially active against all trading partners.
– Political motivations could drive future tariff decisions.
– Increased volatility expected in international trade relations.
trade tensionstariff policy
▸ Full transcript
What we saw this week that was a surprise is reaching back into the toolkit from 1930 under what was then called Smooth-Hawley that started part of the Great Depression, using a tool from that toolkit to apply to Canada, the U.S.'s largest and oldest ally. I think this is a new twist in this trade and tariff saga driven out of the White House. You say that this Section 338, right, is now becoming live. What does this really say for other economies that are dealing with the United States then? Well, it suggests that there is another much more powerful tool that many people had ignored, because again, it's never been used, and it's been sitting there dormant since 1930. Under Section 338, as long as the United States can show that there was discrimination against U.S. companies or U.S. businesses, then the president is authorized to impose tariffs of up to 50%. With no investigation, there are really no procedures. The statute is indefinite. In other words, it doesn't come to an end. It's not a temporary measure. It's a potentially long-lasting measure. And the fact that the United States has now threatened it against Canada, I think means that it's now available to be used against every other trading partner whenever Trump gets aggravated about whatever aggravates Trump in the moment.
Analysis

The U.S. is threatening to impose tariffs of up to 50% on Canada under Section 338 of a 1930 act, which allows for such measures without investigation if discrimination against U.S. businesses is shown. This unprecedented move signals a potential shift in U.S. trade policy that could affect all trading partners, depending on political motivations.

Smart money should note that the activation of Section 338 represents a powerful tool that has been dormant for decades, indicating a willingness to escalate trade tensions without procedural checks. This could lead to increased volatility in international trade relations and impact markets sensitive to tariff changes.

17:43
PDT
U.S. Supreme Court rules against Trump's tariffs.
U.S. Supreme CourtTrumpCanadaUnited StatesAnita AnandASEANBloomberg EconomicsUSSupreme CourtCanadian Foreign Minister AnitaForeign MinisterPresident TrumpPRIVATE
– Canada and U.S. to intensify trade negotiations.
– Trump threatens 50% tariffs on Canadian goods.
– New tariffs on imports expected by Friday.
– Increased tariff headlines likely until midterms.
trade relationstariff policy
▸ Full transcript
When news breaks, a red hat across the Bloomberg terminal, Bloomberg has you covered. Trump's global tariffs are struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. For all the context and clarity you need, there's going to be now tons of tariff headlines until midterm elections. Here at first on Bloomberg. Canada and the United States have been close trading partners for decades and decades. We are bound together by geography. The prime minister spoke with the president yesterday and they agreed to intensify talks relating to trade that will be undertaken by our minister for Canada-US trade and our chief trade negotiator. Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand speaking to us at the ASEAN Foreign Minister's meeting in Manila. President Trump has threatened additional 50 percent tariffs on Canadian goods over alleged unfair treatment of American alcohol, cars, and dairy. He's also expected to impose fresh tariffs on imports from dozens of economies by Friday, when the current 10 percent baseline global tariff rate is set to expire. Bloomberg Economics says most...
Analysis

The U.S. Supreme Court has struck down Trump's global tariffs, leading to a potential increase in tariff headlines as midterm elections approach. Canada and the U.S. are intensifying trade talks amid threats of additional tariffs on Canadian goods over perceived unfair treatment in various sectors.

Smart money should note that the intensifying trade discussions may signal a shift in U.S.-Canada relations, potentially impacting market sentiment. Additionally, the looming expiration of the current global tariff rate could lead to increased volatility in trade-sensitive sectors as new tariffs are considered.

17:39
PDT
U.S. investigating Chinese access to AI chips.
Donald TrumpU.S. Bureau of Industry and SecurityCommerce DepartmentChinaTeslaSpaceXJulie RenAIThe ChineseChief North AsiaStephen AngleTSLAPRIVATE
– Concerns over theft allegations complicate U.S.-China AI consensus.
– Chinese authorities acting preemptively to regulate tech IPOs.
– Potential volatility in AI and tech sectors due to geopolitical tensions.
– Market sentiment may shift based on regulatory developments.
U.S.-China relationsAI governancetech regulationIPO market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
To develop governance of AI, both sides need to recognize their co-dependence regarding this technology. Donald Trump definitely wants to move forward with finding and propelling this consensus, but details on what that consensus might be are still needed. The Chinese are also expressing a desire to meet face-to-face with their U.S. counterparts to discuss this Trump consensus on AI. Complicating matters, the U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security is formally investigating whether Chinese models accessed advanced U.S. AI chips, raising questions about the possibility of finding consensus amid allegations of theft and improper use of U.S. chips, which would violate export controls. Chief North Asia correspondent Stephen Angle noted that Tesla suppliers in the Asian session faced disappointing numbers, while SpaceX's post-listing slump has affected the mood towards hyped IPOs in the U.S. A Bloomberg opinion columnist, Julie Ren, believes that Chinese authorities are acting preemptively to prevent similar issues from occurring in their market.
Analysis

The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security is investigating whether Chinese AI models improperly accessed advanced U.S. AI chips, complicating potential consensus on AI governance between the U.S. and China. This investigation raises concerns about theft allegations and the implications for U.S.-China relations in technology sectors.

Smart money should note the increasing co-dependence in AI technology between the U.S. and China, despite ongoing tensions. The proactive measures by Chinese authorities to prevent IPO slumps suggest a strategic shift in their approach to tech regulation, which could impact market sentiment and investment flows.

17:37
PDT
U.S. investigating IP theft in AI sector.
ChinaU.S.Scott BessonMichael KratiosMoonshot AIOpenAIAnthropicGB300GPTIPAIWhite House OfficeUSDCNH
– China's AI models accused of using U.S. technology.
– Concerns over artificial AI distillation process.
– Potential regulatory actions could impact Chinese tech investments.
– Shift in investment focus towards AI and semiconductor sectors.
IP theftAI competitionU.S.-China relations
▸ Full transcript
Chinese large language models are well behind. They claim their Kimi K3 model outperforms nearly all rivals, except for Anthropic, Claude, Fable 5, and OpenAI's GPT 5.6. U.S. officials, including Scott Besson, are investigating whether there is IP theft involved, and now the director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, Michael Kratios, is accusing China's moonshot AI specifically. Besson didn't mention moonshot AI specifically, but Kratios is. He stated that there is a theft of technology through the artificial AI distillation process, which allows a smaller, more efficient large language model to train from larger ones. Besson has indicated that they have found digital watermarks on these Chinese AI models that show they are potentially derived from America's proprietary AI models, like OpenAI and Anthropic. Kratios says Moonshot acquired GB300 equipped servers and has accused access to GB300s in Thailand.
Analysis

U.S. officials are investigating potential IP theft related to China's moonshot AI, with accusations that Chinese models are using proprietary technology from American firms like OpenAI and Anthropic. The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy has highlighted concerns over the artificial AI distillation process, which allows smaller models to train on larger ones, potentially infringing on U.S. intellectual property rights.

Smart money should note the implications of these allegations on the competitive landscape of AI development, particularly as the U.S. ramps up scrutiny of foreign technology practices. The focus on IP theft could lead to increased regulatory actions and impact investment flows into Chinese tech firms, especially those involved in AI and semiconductor manufacturing.

17:34
PDT
Trump administration eyeing removal of Fed governor Barr.
Trump administrationMichael BarrSilicon Valley BankChinaETFsemiconductor manufacturing internationalDeutsche BankSVBDOGDCIGVEd LudlowUSDCNH
– China's ETF buying intervention may not be sustainable.
– Shift in Chinese investments towards AI and semiconductors.
– Global fiscal responsibility versus growth remains a key debate.
– Potential volatility in Chinese markets linked to AI sector.
U.S. monetary policyChina market dynamicsAI investment trendsJapanese economic outlook
▸ Full transcript
Bloomberg is bringing you the stories of companies and people that are pushing tech to new frontiers and the politics reshaping global tech markets. I'm Ed Ludlow live in San Francisco and this is Bloomberg Tech. Every weekday only on Bloomberg Television. I'm bringing you up to the minute geopolitical news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Anne-Marie Haudenian in Beijing, China and this is Bloomberg. We learned that some Trump administration officials are discussing using an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank to provide a legal basis to remove Fed governor Michael Barr. Let's get the details from senior Washington correspondent Suleja Mosul. Suleja, what are the implications of removing governor Barr here? Well, first of all, we're not anywhere close to it. What we have reported just now, breaking news from Bloomberg, is that the White House, Trump administration officials, and allies see a current ongoing external review of the SVB bank failure in 2023 as providing one potential path to removing Barr. Now, the reason we are hearing these things is that President Trump has said publicly that he would like a, quote, majority on the Fed Board of Governors. And if Barr, one governor, steps down and Trump is able to appoint someone and confirm that person, then he will have his fault. It did not work. There was a DOG criminal investigation that was launched and that did not actually force Powell out of his or find a way to get him to vacate his seat on the board. But there was also an effort last summer, and that has continued, to get Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee, to the Fed Board of Governors to be ousted over accusations of mortgage fraud before she joined the Fed board. And so if the Trump administration is eyeing Barr, goes after Barr, or finds allegations of being a third governor that they are trying to remove. Senior Washington correspondent Selleha Monson is there with the latest from DC. We have more ahead on the Asia trade. This is Bloomberg. Looking for that edge. The opening trade brings you everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. I'm Guy Johnson. I'm Anna Edwards. And I'm Tom McKenzie. This is your opening trade. Only on Bloomberg. In case you missed it, on Bloomberg Reef. You have semis digging in one corner but another, you know, the IGV is zagging in the other corner so you've had this cancellation broadly on the index volatility side. But we've continued to say, you know, you have a guy who's limboing and the limbo stick is 12 inches off the ground. How much further lower can we go for a lot of these metrics like correlation before we see a reflation? Don't miss Bloomberg Brief, live every weekday. Morning, good morning. This is Bloomberg Savannah. Welcome back to the opening trade. It's Bloomberg Money. This is the Asia trade. This is Wall Street Week. Welcome to Balance of Power. You're watching Bloomberg deals. Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend. This is Bloomberg Television. This yen weakness is not exactly a very bad thing for the equity market just first off. Secondly, it was very interesting to see the yen react to those B.O.J. kind of reporting. There was a little bit of immediate strength and that entire move was retraced over the course of the day. So the market is very skeptical that the B.O.J. is going to accelerate the rate hike cycle. It shows also within the rates curve where there is nothing priced for the next two meetings. We have this real dichotomy in Japanese yen volatility. So after that headline, you had Japanese yen one month volatility fall. And as a result, the spread between the one year and the one month volatility is at the high end of the range. So what does that mean? It means that people think that the volatility in the yen is going to be back-loaded to the back end of the year. And it's not just about the skepticism about what Japanese authorities will do, right? It's about the fact of what everybody else around the world will do. I mean, if everybody starts hiking rates, what's to change here when it comes to that immense pressure that you're seeing on the Yen? Correct. And that's why some market commentators are just asking Japan to focus on yield control. So Deutsche Bank is out there saying that Japanese economic growth needs kind of anchored yields. And that is a much more important aspect of Japanese growth than the currency is. And there is some validity to that. The growth that is being seen in the tech sector and in the export sector should benefit from a weakened yen, whereas higher yields do raise the cost of borrowing.
Analysis

The ongoing external review of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure may provide a pathway for Trump administration officials to remove Fed governor Michael Barr, as they seek to gain a majority on the Fed Board of Governors. This reflects a broader political maneuvering that could impact monetary policy and market stability.

China's national team intervention in ETF buying is under scrutiny, with a notable shift in investment focus from consumer stocks to AI and semiconductor sectors. This rotation indicates a potential vulnerability in the Chinese market, as volatility in the AI and chip space could affect returns amidst the ongoing global fiscal debate.

17:32
PDT
Yen weakness is not harming equity markets.
Japanese yenBank of JapanDeutsche BankSo Deutsche Bank
– Market skepticism exists regarding B.O.J. rate hikes.
– Volatility in the yen is expected to increase later this year.
– Focus on yield control is crucial for Japanese economic growth.
– Tech and export sectors may benefit from a weaker yen.
currency volatilityJapanese economic growthyield control
▸ Full transcript
This yen weakness is not exactly a very bad thing for the equity market just first off. Secondly, it was very interesting to see the yen react to those B.O.J. kind of reporting. There was a little bit of immediate strength, and that entire move was retraced over the course of the day. So the market is very skeptical that the B.O.J. is going to accelerate the rate hike cycle. It shows also within the rates curve where there is nothing priced for the next two meetings. We have this real dichotomy in Japanese yen volatility. So after that headline, you had Japanese yen one-month volatility fall. And as a result, the spread between the one-year and the one-month volatility is at the high end of the range. So what does that mean? It means that people think that the volatility in the yen is going to be back-loaded to the back end of the year. And it's not just about the skepticism about what Japanese authorities will do, right? It's about the fact of what everybody else around the world will do. I mean, if everybody starts hiking rates, what's to change here when it comes to that immense pressure that you're seeing on the yen? Correct. And that's why some market commentators are just asking Japan to focus on yield control. So Deutsche Bank is out there saying that Japanese economic growth needs kind of anchored yields. And that is a much more important aspect of Japanese growth than the currency is. And there is some validity to that. The growth that is being seen in the tech sector and in the export sector should benefit from a weakened yen, whereas higher yields do raise the...
Analysis

The Japanese yen's recent weakness is not detrimental to the equity market, as skepticism grows regarding the Bank of Japan's (B.O.J.) potential acceleration of rate hikes. Market participants are increasingly focused on yield control as a more critical factor for Japanese economic growth than currency fluctuations.

The volatility in the yen is expected to be back-loaded towards the end of the year, indicating that market participants anticipate significant movements in response to global rate hikes. Deutsche Bank's emphasis on anchored yields highlights a shift in focus towards sustainable growth in Japan's tech and export sectors, suggesting that a weaker yen could still support these areas despite rising yields.

17:30
PDT
European natural gas prices up over 40%.
European natural gasU.S.IranChinaRussiaNorth KoreaU.S. Senate Commerce CommitteeTrump administrationBloombergIGVGuy JohnsonAnna EdwardsPRIVATE
– Speculators increasing long positions in natural gas.
– U.S. Senate advancing bill to block Chinese vehicles.
– Legislation also targets vehicles linked to Russia, Iran, North Korea.
– Geopolitical tensions affecting market dynamics.
geopolitical tensionsnatural gas volatilityautomotive competition
▸ Full transcript
Looking for that edge. The opening trade brings you everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. I'm Guy Johnson. I'm Anna Edwards. And I'm Tom McKenzie. This is your opening trade. Only on Bloomberg. In case you missed it, on Bloomberg Reef. You have semis digging in one corner but another, you know, the IGV is zagging in the other corner so you've had this cancellation broadly on the index volatility side. But we've continued to say, you know, you have a guy who's limboing and the limbo stick is 12 inches off the ground. How much further lower can we go for a lot of these metrics like correlation before we see a reflation? Don't miss Bloomberg Brief, live every weekday. Morning, good morning. This is Bloomberg Savannah. Welcome back to the opening trade. It's Bloomberg Money. This is the Asia trade. This is Wall Street Week. Welcome to Balance of Power. You're watching Bloomberg deals. Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend. This is Bloomberg Television.
Analysis

European natural gas prices have resumed gains, extending a rally of over 40%, while concerns about price volatility increase as colder months approach. Speculators are boosting long positions in natural gas, indicating strong conviction that prices may continue to rise despite a significant drop from the five-year average.

The U.S. Senate Commerce Committee's advancement of legislation to block Chinese vehicles from the American market reflects growing geopolitical tensions and competition in the automotive sector. This move could impact U.S. automakers as they navigate an increasingly complex international landscape, particularly with ties to Russia, Iran, and North Korea.

17:28
PDT
Trump administration eyeing potential removal of Fed governor Michael Barr.
Trump administrationMichael BarrFederal ReserveSilicon Valley BankDOGDCLisa CookFed BoardSenior WashingtonSelleha MonsonFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– Previous efforts to oust other Fed officials indicate ongoing political maneuvering.
– External review of Silicon Valley Bank failure could provide legal grounds for action.
– Political tensions may impact Federal Reserve's policy decisions.
– Market stability could be influenced by changes in Fed leadership.
Fed policypolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
There was a DOG criminal investigation that was launched, and that did not actually force Powell out of his position or find a way to get him to vacate his seat on the board. However, there was also an effort last summer that has continued to get Lisa Cook, a Biden appointee, to the Fed Board of Governors, to be ousted over accusations of mortgage fraud before she joined the Fed board. If the Trump administration is eyeing Barr, they may go after Barr or find allegations against a third governor that they are trying to remove. Senior Washington correspondent Selleha Monson is there with the latest from DC. We have more ahead on the Asia trade. This is Bloomberg.
Analysis

The Trump administration is reportedly considering using an external review of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure as a basis to remove Fed governor Michael Barr. This follows previous unsuccessful attempts to oust other Fed officials, indicating a continued focus on reshaping the Federal Reserve's leadership.

Smart money should note the potential implications of a shift in the Fed's governance, particularly if Barr is removed, as it could influence monetary policy direction. The ongoing scrutiny of Fed officials reflects broader political tensions that may affect market stability and investor sentiment.

17:26
PDT
Trump administration eyes removal of Fed governor Barr.
Trump administrationMichael BarrSilicon Valley BankFederal ReserveSVBEd LudlowSan FranciscoBloomberg TechBloomberg TelevisionMarie HaudenianSuleja MosulWhite HousePRIVATEFEDFUNDSUSDCNH
– External review of SVB failure could provide legal basis.
– Trump seeks a majority on the Fed Board.
– Potential shift in monetary policy direction.
– Political dynamics may impact market sentiment.
political influence on Fedmonetary policy uncertainty
▸ Full transcript
Bloomberg is bringing you the stories of companies and people that are pushing tech to new frontiers and the politics reshaping global tech markets. I'm Ed Ludlow live in San Francisco and this is Bloomberg Tech. Every weekday only on Bloomberg Television. I'm bringing you up to the minute geopolitical news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Anne-Marie Haudenian in Beijing, China and this is Bloomberg. We learned that some Trump administration officials are discussing using an external review of the 2023 failure of Silicon Valley Bank to provide a legal basis to remove Fed governor Michael Barr. Let's get the details from senior Washington correspondent Suleja Mosul. Suleja, what are the implications of removing governor Barr here? Well, first of all, we're not anywhere close to it. What we have reported just now, breaking news from Bloomberg, is that the White House, Trump administration officials, and allies see a current ongoing external review of the SVB bank failure in 2023 as providing one potential path to removing Barr. Now, the reason we are hearing these things is that President Trump has said publicly that he would like a, quote, majority on the Fed Board of Governors. And if Barr, one governor, steps down and Trump is able to appoint someone and that person is confirmed, then he will have his fault.
Analysis

Trump administration officials are considering using an external review of the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank failure as a potential basis to remove Fed governor Michael Barr. This move aligns with Trump's desire for a majority on the Fed Board of Governors, which could shift monetary policy direction.

The implications of this potential removal highlight the ongoing political maneuvering surrounding the Federal Reserve, which could influence market sentiment and investor confidence. Smart money should be aware of how changes in Fed leadership might affect interest rates and overall economic policy.

17:19
PDT
European natural gas prices up 6.1%, rallying over 40%.
IranU.S.President TrumpMatthew James McArthurEuropean natural gasMatthew James McBut President Trump
– Concerns about price volatility increase as winter approaches.
– Speculators are boosting long positions in natural gas.
– U.S.-Iran tensions persist without immediate escalation.
– Potential for strategic positioning in energy markets.
energy market volatilitygeopolitical tensions
▸ Full transcript
We have also seen that the resumption of gains for European natural gas prices has extended that month's rally to more than 40%. Now, 6.1% higher when it comes to the last trade within gas reserves in Europe, just about just over 50% fall. So that's down from a five-year average of 70%. Clearly, a lot of concerns are playing out about price volatility going into the colder months as well seasonally. We've seen funds and other speculators also boosting their long positions in European natural gas, showing strong conviction that potentially prices will continue to rise. It's the latest regarding the U.S.-Iran situation; our breaking news editor, Matthew James McArthur, joins us now with more. We know that Iran is good at the waiting game, right? But President Trump also doesn't seem to be that hastened in terms of returning to talks or any kind of negotiating table. Yeah, you're right. It's kind of been, as far as you can say, business as usual with regards to the U.S. and Iran situation. The U.S. military started their twelfth night of strikes a little less than three hours ago. It hasn't really escalated beyond that point. We haven't seen anything beyond military targets being hit. But we know that Trump has threatened to up the rhetoric a lot; he said that if Iran strikes a boat, he is prepared to hit bigger targets such as.
Analysis

European natural gas prices have resumed gains, extending a rally to over 40%, with prices currently 6.1% higher. Concerns about price volatility are mounting as the colder months approach, with speculators increasing long positions in anticipation of further price rises.

The situation with the U.S. and Iran remains tense but stagnant, with military actions ongoing but no escalation beyond targeted strikes. Smart money should note that while the geopolitical landscape is fraught, the lack of immediate escalation may provide a window for strategic positioning in energy markets.

17:17
PDT
Local government officials face time constraints in passing legislation.
BloombergUNOffice of the President of the General AssemblyUnited NationsGeneral AssemblyPRIVATE
– Networking is crucial for political success and constituent engagement.
– Global realignment is impacting markets and geopolitics.
– Sophisticated conversations are needed to address mounting global challenges.
– Candidates for UN secretary general are prioritizing these issues.
political dynamicsglobal realignment
▸ Full transcript
The term for local government is three years. When I first became a congressman, it takes you a few months to learn the business and to make your connections to network, etc. If, for example, you're not particularly favored in the majority, passing a law in a year, a year and a half is not that easy to do. After about a year and a half, you already hear that there's somebody in your district beginning to campaign and is going to oppose you in the next election. So you have to go back to your district to take care of that. And how much work do you get done? At the epicenter of a global realignment on a scale not seen for decades, at the intersection between markets, economics, and geopolitics, a forum for sophisticated conversation, this is Bloomberg's surveillance. Live from UN headquarters, a special town hall with candidates seeking to become the next UN secretary general, discussing their priorities as the United Nations confronts mounting global challenges, organized by the Office of the President of the General Assembly.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the challenges faced by local government officials in passing legislation within their limited term, emphasizing the need for networking and responsiveness to constituents. The backdrop of a significant global realignment suggests that the intersection of markets, economics, and geopolitics is becoming increasingly complex, necessitating sophisticated dialogue among leaders.

17:15
PDT
Yen depreciation from 80 to 160 may impact exporters.
AbeAlphabetTeslaMNG InvestmentsJapanU.S.MNGCAPEXGOOGLPRIVATE
– Long-term enthusiasm for Japanese equities persists despite macro concerns.
– U.S. tech earnings will influence Asian suppliers.
– Alphabet's higher CAPEX guidance is notable.
– Tesla's profit miss could affect market sentiment.
currency riskJapanese equitiesU.S. tech earnings
▸ Full transcript
You've seen the yen go from 100, or actually around the time of Abe's era being launched, around 80 to now 160. We don't, as you know, invest in the market. We invest in stocks. We're not ignorant of the macro. At the margin, it might impact how we see some of the exporters, perhaps. But our view is if you do your homework and you bet on the right management teams with the right business models and the right unit economics, you'll win over time. But as you were mentioning just before I came on air, there is a credibility question. So we'll see how the market perceives this. They're being transparent. The headlines are out there. But the yen continues to weaken. So we do have our eye on that. But it does not change our long-term enthusiasm for Japanese equities. Because, Persha, good to have you with us as Asian equities portfolio manager at MNG Investments. Right. Take a look at what we're watching across the Asia session. Of course, those tech earnings from the U.S. will have implications across Asia, especially across suppliers. We had higher CAPEX guidance from Alphabet again. We had Tesla missing profit expectations, some of those suppliers that we'll be watching across the day. This is Bloomberg. Equity indices built on opinions. That's the old way.
Analysis

The yen has depreciated significantly, moving from around 80 to 160, which may impact exporters, but long-term enthusiasm for Japanese equities remains intact. The recent U.S. tech earnings, particularly Alphabet's higher CAPEX guidance and Tesla's profit miss, will influence Asian suppliers and market sentiment moving forward.

Investors should note the credibility concerns surrounding the yen's weakness and its potential effects on market perception. Despite this, there are opportunities in Japanese equities driven by strong management teams and sound business models, suggesting a focus on fundamentals rather than macro fluctuations.

17:13
PDT
Chinese equities offer diverse investment opportunities beyond AI.
ChinabanksshipbuildersretailershealthcarebiotechdefenseaerospaceautosrenewablesAIUSDCNH
– Top holdings include banks, shipbuilders, and retailers.
– Market shows attractive valuations with high dividend yields.
– National policy support is important but economic fundamentals are still evolving.
– Capital allocation is shifting towards healthcare, biotech, and renewables.
China equity opportunitiesdiversification strategynational policy impact
▸ Full transcript
In which the Japanese and the American companies have been leaders for a long time. So, yes, start with China, spend time there, understand what's going on. And again, it's not just AI. Pretty much anything that is happening within China is touching sectors that have happened, sectors outside of China, whether you look at healthcare, farmland biotech, defense, aerospace, and then of course autos, ancillaries, renewables, the list is very, very long. I guess the question is when it comes to the broader landscape for Chinese equities, it's helpful to have national policy support, right? And of course, the national AI ambitions as well. But do you require a strong economic fundamental situation, which perhaps hasn't come through yet with the recent slowdown? It wouldn't hurt. But if you look at our China strategies and our portfolios in China, the top holdings are not AI-related companies. It's a very broad opportunity set that we're seeing. We're seeing single-digit PEs, double-digit free cash yields, high and rising dividend yields, reasonable earnings growth, very smart capital allocation, much smarter than we've seen over the past five, 10, 15, 20 years. And to our portfolio in China, the largest exposures are in banks, in shipbuilders, in some of the retailers. Yes, of course, we do have exposure to tech hardware, and we're doing our work on a broader universe of names as well. But the opportunity set, again, in China is very broad for long-term active managers.
Analysis

Chinese equities present a broad opportunity set, with significant holdings in banks, shipbuilders, and retailers rather than just AI-related companies. Despite a recent economic slowdown, the market shows single-digit PEs, high dividend yields, and smart capital allocation, indicating potential for long-term active managers.

Investors should note that the national policy support for AI and other sectors in China is crucial, but the underlying economic fundamentals are still developing. The shift in capital allocation towards sectors like healthcare, biotech, and renewables suggests a diversification strategy that could yield substantial returns beyond traditional tech investments.

17:10
PDT
Investment focus is shifting towards AI models and GPU accelerators in China.
DeepSeekMoonshotChinaJapanTaiwanKoreaIndiaGPUAINorth AsianUSDCNHDXY
– Caution is advised for North Asian equities outside of China.
– Japan's corporate governance transformation remains a slow but promising equity story.
– India is stabilizing after a poor Q1, with many companies showing potential.
– Chinese tech development is accelerating, impacting global supply chains.
AI investment shiftChina tech developmentNorth Asian equitiescorporate governance
▸ Full transcript
That shift is accelerating and it's moving from hardware and memory to now the models themselves. If you look at the recent announcements, the recent being over the past year or so, first from DeepSeek in January, February last year and now from Moonshot just a few days ago, the pace of the acceleration in Chinese tech development is astonishing and that will have implications for all the sectors that that touches. So yes, we're spending more time and we're allocating more capital to accelerators, GPU accelerators in China to the semiconductor production equipment companies in China. And also, all this capital allocation and the time and the research spent on China is yielding a lot of learnings for Japanese companies, for Taiwanese and Korean companies, many of whom are now more vulnerable than they have been in the past. So there is a shift underway in our portfolios, a little bit more caution on some of the North Asian names outside of China and more constructive views on China. The headline top-down slowdown that we are seeing. There's a very broad opportunity set in China, and it's not just about AI. Same thing goes for other markets. Japan, we remain very constructive, even though we're more than a decade past the launch of Abe's arrows. This might be the most slowly reprising equity story in the world, the corporate governance transformation in Japan. If we look at India, some stability in Q2 after one of the worst quarters for Indian equities in Q1. And there's a lot to like in India as well. 7,000 listed companies almost 2,000 with a market cap of over 100 million dollars.
Analysis

The shift in tech investment is accelerating from hardware and memory towards AI models, particularly in China, which is reshaping sector dynamics. This transition is prompting a cautious stance on North Asian equities while fostering a more constructive outlook on Chinese investments, indicating a significant shift in capital allocation strategies.

Smart money should note the emerging vulnerabilities of Japanese, Taiwanese, and Korean companies as they adapt to the rapid advancements in Chinese tech. The ongoing corporate governance transformation in Japan, despite being slow, presents a unique opportunity for long-term investors, especially as India shows signs of stability after a challenging quarter.

17:08
PDT
Beneficiaries in optical networking and photonic sectors are being prioritized.
Kimi K3ChinaAIoptical networkingphotonic spacememory sectorUSDCNH
– A divergence is expected between compute and memory demand.
– Investors are reevaluating memory sector holdings.
– Long-term opportunities in AI technologies remain intact.
– Deceleration in AI capex does not eliminate investment potential.
AI investmentmemory demandtechnology shifts
▸ Full transcript
We are looking for beneficiaries or companies that will benefit, even if the overall hyperscalar capex pool doesn't grow very much. So, optical networking companies, photonic space companies, and some of the advanced packaging companies are what we're looking for in Asia. There are plenty of opportunities still at this stage of the AI trade that we've seen over the past four years. Also, I would say that there's a lot of noise these days. But if you look back, let's go back to April of last year when we had the Trump tariffs released across the world, there have been a few genuine signals. One of the real signals in recent months was last week or over the weekend with the Kimi K3 model. Our view is that there's going to be a divergence between compute and memory demand. Compute is going to become more efficient. So we're revisiting our holdings in the memory sector, where we had been quite overweight last year. We have been overweight in more recent months, but we're revisiting that. So a lot to look at in Asia. But I would say that the overall takeaway is that we might see a deceleration in AI capex, hyperscalar capex, but that doesn't change the opportunity set for long-term active managers. It's very layered in nuance to what you're saying right now, right? I mean, if we see a slowdown because of what's happening across China, you would revisit memory, but at the same time, you're actually investing in the pigs and shovels of the pigs and shovels for investors who want to unpack this.
Analysis

The focus is shifting towards beneficiaries in the optical networking and photonic space, despite potential deceleration in AI capital expenditures. Smart money should note the divergence in compute and memory demand, indicating a strategic reevaluation of holdings in the memory sector while still capitalizing on long-term opportunities in AI-related technologies.

Investors are advised to consider the implications of the slowdown in AI capex, particularly in relation to the ongoing shifts in technology. The emphasis on investing in foundational technologies suggests a nuanced approach to navigating the current market landscape, especially in Asia.

17:05
PDT
Tesla's CapEx remains at $25 billion until 2026 but is currently off track.
TeslaAlphabetIBMEd LodlowMNG InvestmentAIMNGBloomberg NewsSan FranciscoSo VikaTSLAGOOGLPRIVATE
– Alphabet reported strong cloud growth, contrasting with Tesla's disappointing performance.
– Investors are weighing AI revenue growth against increasing infrastructure costs.
– Tesla's future business lines in AI are still largely unproven.
– Patience is required for long-term AI investments as significant build-out is needed.
AI investment riskcloud demand vs CapExtech earnings divergence
▸ Full transcript
There was a modest miss against street expectations, but no evidence that search is being disrupted too much from consumers using chatbots instead of going to Google. Elsewhere, it was an assessment of growth versus cost and investors weighing booming cloud demand against ever higher infrastructure spending. The next test is whether AI revenue growth goes fast enough to catch up with that capex demand. Tesla's capex is going to stay at $25 billion until 2026, but the company is saying it will go up over the next two to three years. They're not even on track halfway through the year to meet the $25 billion CapEx guide, but Musk talked about the idea that they would rather move more quickly than target capital efficiency. The difference with Tesla is that there is not the same evidence in the world of AI; the future business lines, RoboTaxi and humanoid robotics, do not have much to show for it yet. And so the appeal really was for patience, as these are still long shots with a big build-out ahead. This is Ed Lodlow for Bloomberg News in San Francisco. Let's dissect the big tech earnings from the U.S. and how that will really feed into the Asian session and bring in Vika's portfolio manager at MNG Investment. So Vika, it's really good to have you with us. We have a very nuanced A.I. trade right now coming from the U.S., right? When it comes to Alphabet, we saw this major cloud beat. We had Tesla disappointing. We had IBM cutting guidance. How does that necessarily translate?
Analysis

Tesla's capital expenditures are set to remain at $25 billion through 2026, but the company is struggling to meet this target halfway through the year. Meanwhile, Alphabet's strong cloud performance contrasts with Tesla's disappointing results, highlighting a divergence in growth trajectories within the tech sector.

Investors should note that while AI revenue growth is anticipated, it may not keep pace with rising capital expenditures, particularly for companies like Tesla that are still in the early stages of their AI initiatives. This suggests a potential risk for tech stocks heavily reliant on future AI developments without immediate returns.

17:03
PDT
Oil prices are up 1.5% amid Middle East tensions.
Macquarie GroupGreg WardKPMGIranSaudi ArabiaBrent crudeWTIRed SeaUSCEOAGMMiddle EastWTICL=F
– Iran-backed militants have targeted Saudi tankers, raising supply disruption concerns.
– Macquarie Group is undergoing leadership change with Greg Ward expected as new CEO.
– Shareholder scrutiny at Macquarie's AGM focuses on KPMG hiring and company culture.
– Regulatory issues may impact Macquarie's stock performance.
geopolitical riskleadership changeregulatory scrutinyoil market volatility
▸ Full transcript
Particular becoming a little bit more worrisome. We're also watching oil, as you mentioned, we continue to see the escalation. In fact, I think you could characterize it as a broadening of the hostilities across the Middle East because we had that confirmation from the Iran-backed militants saying that they targeted two Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, really threatening deeper supply disruptions beyond just the Strait of Hormuz and into a potential violation of a blockade imposed in the Red Sea as well. So we continue to watch for any kind of reaction from the US and Iran. Both sides have been downplaying a return to peace talks. You see Brent crude there joining the trade up by one and a half percent along with that rise in WTI. Here in Sydney, we're kicking off higher, eight-tenths of one percent. One stock that we are watching is Macquarie. The financial name has a number of elements here including a change in leadership there with Greg Ward expected to take over as the next CEO. This comes at a pretty challenging time for Macquarie at the moment with, of course, a sustained period of profitability for sure but also scandals that have drawn some regulatory ire as well. This comes as we also watch the AGM today with scrutiny expected from shareholders on account of the decisions made when it comes to KPMG hiring KPMG Australia as its auditor given the ongoing allegations now against that firm. Also likely to be questions asked about Macquarie's culture, senior leadership behavior, and the deal-making unit in particular. We've had a lot of local media coverage in terms of potential short coverings there.
Analysis

Oil prices are rising as hostilities in the Middle East escalate, with Iran-backed militants targeting Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, raising concerns over supply disruptions. Macquarie Group is facing scrutiny at its AGM amid leadership changes and regulatory issues, with shareholders likely to question the hiring of KPMG as auditor and the company's culture.

Smart money should note the potential for increased volatility in oil markets due to geopolitical tensions, which could impact global supply chains. Additionally, Macquarie's leadership transition and ongoing regulatory scrutiny may affect investor confidence and stock performance in the financial sector.

16:59
PDT
South Korean semiconductor workers are demanding a share of increased profits.
Samsung ElectronicsSKSouth KoreaMacquarie GroupShamara WikramanyakaKPMGBloombergTeslaAlphabetIranU.S.South KoreanPRIVATEGOOGLTSLACL=F
– Samsung and SK have awarded significant bonuses, raising worker expectations.
– The South Korean government is discussing fair distribution of excess tax revenues.
– Labor sentiment may influence corporate governance and profit-sharing models.
– Regulatory focus on employee relations could increase operational costs.
labor relationsprofit sharingregulatory focus
▸ Full transcript
The semiconductor trade is under scrutiny as South Korean workers demand a fair share of profits amid record bonuses at major firms like Samsung and SK. This reflects a broader societal shift towards equitable profit distribution, with the government also engaging in discussions about excess tax revenues and their fair allocation. Investors should note that this labor sentiment could influence corporate governance and profit-sharing models across industries, potentially leading to increased operational costs for companies that do not adapt. The ongoing debate may also signal a shift in regulatory focus, impacting how firms manage employee relations and compensation structures in the future.
Analysis

The semiconductor trade is under scrutiny as South Korean workers demand a fair share of profits amid record bonuses at major firms like Samsung and SK. This reflects a broader societal shift towards equitable profit distribution, with the government also engaging in discussions about excess tax revenues and their fair allocation.

Investors should note that this labor sentiment could influence corporate governance and profit-sharing models across industries, potentially leading to increased operational costs for companies that do not adapt. The ongoing debate may also signal a shift in regulatory focus, impacting how firms manage employee relations and compensation structures in the future.

16:57
PDT
Fed's dovish approach faces inflation scrutiny.
FedBramoWarsh FedFEDFUNDS
– Market sentiment is turning bullish despite risks.
– Skepticism may not be rewarded in current conditions.
– Potential for volatility if Fed actions diverge from expectations.
– Investors should monitor inflation indicators closely.
Fed policymarket sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Is the Warsh Fed's response mechanism to inflation that is ticking upward, given the fact that this Fed has been incredibly dovish? Are they going to wreck the party? I mean, ultimately, it's easy to be a skeptic, but I might as well join the party and not be so skeptical, because you're not paid to be skeptical. You're not paid to poke holes. You are paid to just go with the mob. We got that breaking news whoosh that drives across the screen. Can we play that now? Sort of breaking news. It's the job. Come on. Bramo. No. I think I'm going to look to confirm this, but I think Bramo just turned bullish. What just happened? I think that it just doesn't pay to be skeptical. You take a look at every single different benchmark. Okay, I mean, it's sort of what are we training people? We are training them that you cannot lose, and that seems to be the case.
Analysis

The Fed's dovish stance is under scrutiny as inflation pressures mount, raising concerns about potential market disruptions. The sentiment is shifting towards a bullish outlook, suggesting that skepticism may not be rewarded in the current environment.

Smart money should note the prevailing trend of optimism despite underlying inflation risks, indicating a potential disconnect between market sentiment and economic fundamentals. This could lead to volatility if the Fed's actions diverge from market expectations.

16:55
PDT
Macquarie Group's auditor appointment is under scrutiny.
Macquarie GroupKPMGShamara WikramanyakaAustralian investment landscapeAustralian pension fundsAGMMacquarie Capital
– KPMG faces controversy over client data misuse allegations.
– Investors demand assurances on management issues.
– Climate resolutions are being presented at the meeting.
– CEO Shamara Wikramanyaka leaves with a mixed legacy.
corporate governanceinvestor activismregulatory riskclimate change
▸ Full transcript
It's fair to say it was already set to be a pretty action-packed meeting. There's a number of things on the agenda. I mean, I feel like it's a little bit different from a year ago. There was far more scrutiny over pay. This year, the board is likely to face a range of questions, primarily around the appointment of KPMG as the bank's auditor, which isn't a contract that starts until 2028, and it will be voted on at next year's AGM. But there are set to be lots of questions. KPMG, of course, is embroiled in controversy here over allegations of the misuse of confidential client data to bid for businesses in the Australian investment landscape. There's also been some reporting in local press around the culture in the division of Macquarie Capital. So there will likely be questions around that. There are some investors we have interviewed over the past few weeks who are really seeking assurances over the management of these kinds of issues. And then, lastly, but not least, of course, there are two resolutions on climate that are being put to the meeting as well today by one of the pension funds in Australia.
Analysis

Macquarie Group faces scrutiny over its decision to appoint KPMG as its auditor amid ongoing controversies, including allegations of misuse of confidential client data. Investors are seeking assurances regarding management's handling of these issues, alongside climate resolutions being presented at the meeting.

The appointment of KPMG, effective from 2028, raises questions about governance and risk management at Macquarie, particularly given the recent regulatory breaches under CEO Shamara Wikramanyaka. This situation highlights a growing investor demand for transparency and accountability in corporate governance, which could influence future shareholder actions across the sector.

16:53
PDT
Macquarie Group CEO to step down in November.
Macquarie GroupShamara WikramanyakaKPMGAustraliaCEOPremieres JulyBloomberg CryptoBremen BloombergAmy BainbridgePRIVATE
– Leadership change comes amid regulatory scrutiny.
– Wikramanyaka leaves with a mixed legacy.
– Investors expect a shift in governance and risk management.
– Shareholder sentiment may influence stock performance.
leadership changeregulatory scrutinyinvestor confidence
▸ Full transcript
Where the users are and where the demand is going to be. And in the case of Africa, for us, a dual goal is both connectivity and compute. Premieres July 24th, only on Bloomberg. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance. Bloomberg is covering all things crypto, the people, the transactions, and the technology. Bloomberg Crypto, Tuesdays only on Bloomberg. Macquarie Group CEO Shamara Wikramanyaka will step down in November after eight years in the role. The announcement comes with the Australian financial giant set for a tough shareholders meeting today amid fallout from a decision to hire a scandal-hit auditor, KPMG, as Bremen Bloomberg's Amy Bainbridge for more. So is a leadership change largely expected? Look, investors we've spoken to this morning, Heidi, say yes. I mean, Shamara Wikramanyaka has been in the role for eight years. It is a very high-profile role in Australian finance. I've seen the CEO speak at countless conferences here in Australia. But she, you know, she leaves with a mixed legacy. Obviously, there was a lot of celebration at the time about a female leading a global bank. But there have been a string of regulatory breaches and issues under her watch she will be leaving as.
Analysis

Macquarie Group CEO Shamara Wikramanyaka will step down in November after eight years, amid a challenging shareholders meeting and scrutiny over hiring practices. Her departure follows a mixed legacy, marked by regulatory breaches during her tenure, raising questions about the future leadership direction of the firm.

Investors are likely to focus on the implications of this leadership change, particularly in light of the regulatory issues that have surfaced. The appointment of a new CEO could signal a shift in corporate governance and risk management strategies, which may impact investor confidence and stock performance in the near term.

16:50
PDT
Workers in South Korea are demanding profit-sharing amid rising bonuses in the semiconductor industry.
South KoreaSamsung ElectronicsSKKakaoHyundai MotorsHanwhaCat BartonBloombergUSAISouth KoreanPRIVATE
– The government is actively discussing fair distribution of excess tax revenues.
– Labor protests are spreading beyond traditional AI sectors to various industries.
– This movement could lead to increased labor costs for companies.
– The situation reflects a growing global trend of worker activism.
labor relationsprofit sharingworker activism
▸ Full transcript
So what is this issue really about? And what will they tell us about the future of how South Korean society perhaps faces artificial intelligence and automation? It's a really interesting phenomenon because obviously it is stemming from, it's a spillover effect from these huge bonuses that we saw awarded at both Samsung Electronics and SK where at Samsung, you know, bonuses could be up to 400,000 US per semiconductor worker, which is huge. So yes, exactly as you say, even companies where they're not really dealing with artificial intelligence, the workers are starting to say, but how are we getting a share of these, you know, increased profits, a share of increased efficiencies? Traditionally, obviously, bonuses tend to go to, you know, C-suite executives. And now what we're seeing in South Korea is that workers are saying, we deserve a share of this. And it's something that the government itself has also been talking up. The government has started a debate about what do we do if we're getting huge excess tax revenues? How can we be sure that this is shared fairly through all of society and it's not just going to a very few people? It's something the government is actively looking at and certainly now we're seeing that workers across many industries that are not traditionally involved in AI are also speaking up. Yeah and something perhaps that workers around the world will also take a closer look. Cat Barton good to have you with us Bloomberg.
Analysis

Labor protests in South Korea are gaining momentum as workers demand a share of increased profits, particularly following substantial bonuses awarded in the semiconductor sector. This shift indicates a broader societal push for equitable profit distribution, reflecting growing discontent with traditional compensation structures that favor executives over workers.

The government's engagement in this debate signals a potential shift in policy that could reshape labor relations across various industries. Investors should note that this trend may lead to increased labor costs and influence corporate profit margins, particularly in sectors experiencing rapid technological advancements.

16:48
PDT
Samsung futures show potential upside after a lower close.
SamsungAlphabetSK HynixHyundai MotorsKakaoHanwhaBloombergSKCAPEXNew YorkSouth KoreaKat BartonGOOGLPRIVATE
– Alphabet's higher CAPEX guidance may support semiconductor stocks.
– Labor protests are spreading across South Korea's tech and automotive sectors.
– Workers are seeking profit-sharing deals similar to Samsung's recent payouts.
– Increased operational costs may arise from ongoing labor negotiations.
labor unrestsemiconductor sector dynamicsprofit-sharing negotiations
▸ Full transcript
featuring a shorter and wider design. That's better for watching videos and gaming. Take a look at how futures of Samsung are trading at the moment, pointing to some upside after the lower close in the previous session. We did have SK Hynix ADRs in the New York session, though, being supported. We had seen Alphabet's higher CAPEX guidance, providing perhaps some more dynamism to the semiconductor trade. I mean, if they are going to spend more, we could see some more support for these picks and shovels for the buildouts. So we're watching these stocks as we're also watching these labor unions across South Korea rallying. These coming after earlier protests forced Samsung to pay bonuses of more than $400,000 to some employees. Workers and other companies are now seeking similar profit-sharing deals. Bloomberg's sole viewer chief, Kat Barton, joins us now. So how widespread are these labor protests? And what's the significance of them right now for the South Korean society? They're fairly widespread, actually. We have a very small protest happening at the Hanwha office right next to the Bloomberg office in Seoul. You can see them when you're walking around the capital city. But it's an interesting phenomenon because they're spreading not just through the table like Hyundai Motors where there's been a partial strike this week and Hanwha but they've also moved to the big tech companies like Kakao.
Analysis

Samsung futures indicate potential upside following a lower close in the previous session, supported by increased CAPEX guidance from Alphabet, which may bolster the semiconductor sector. Labor protests in South Korea are gaining traction, with workers from major companies like Hyundai and Kakao seeking profit-sharing deals after Samsung's recent bonus payouts.

The spread of labor protests across South Korea's tech and automotive sectors signals rising worker discontent and could lead to increased operational costs for these companies. Smart money should consider the implications of labor negotiations on profit margins and stock performance in the affected sectors.

16:46
PDT
Texas Instruments reported Q2 results that beat expectations but disappointed investors.
Texas InstrumentsBrookfield Asset ManagementIPA PowerBlackstoneWarner Bros.European UnionUSTVIPAWarner Bros
– The company projects Q3 revenue between $5.6 billion and $6.1 billion.
– The stock has gained 70% this year, leading to heightened expectations.
– Brookfield Asset Management is acquiring IPA Power from Blackstone for $7 billion.
– The Warner Bros. merger received conditional approval from the EU but faces a US lawsuit.
semiconductor outlookmerger and acquisition activityenergy storage investment
▸ Full transcript
That's what you need to think about. Higher in the US after its $110 billion takeover of Warner Bros. won conditional approval from the European Union. The green light comes after both companies agreed to address competition concerns, but the merger still faces a US lawsuit that threatens its progress over concerns the deal could harm competition in film and cable TV distribution. Texas Instruments fell in extended trade after the chipmaker reported second quarter results that beat the street but failed to impress investors. The company says revenue for the next quarter will come in around $5.6 to $6.1 billion but it's confronting outsized expectations after a 70% stock gain this year. Brookfield Asset Management is buying battery storage operator IPA Power from Blackstone in a $7 billion deal.
Analysis

Texas Instruments fell in extended trade after reporting second quarter results that beat expectations but failed to impress investors. The company anticipates revenue for the next quarter to be between $5.6 billion and $6.1 billion, which may not meet the heightened expectations following a significant 70% stock gain this year.

The market reaction suggests that investors are increasingly cautious about growth sustainability in the semiconductor sector, particularly after a strong performance this year. The upcoming revenue guidance indicates potential headwinds, as the market may be recalibrating its expectations for tech stocks amid broader economic uncertainties.

16:44
PDT
Canada aims to double non-US exports in the next 10 years.
CanadaASEANDavid WestonUSWall Street WeekPRIVATE
– A free trade agreement with ASEAN countries is targeted for completion by year-end.
– The strategy reflects a shift in foreign policy towards global engagement.
– Strengthening ties with ASEAN could open new markets for Canadian goods.
– Geopolitical tensions are influencing Canada's trade diversification efforts.
trade diversificationgeopolitical strategy
▸ Full transcript
Prioritizing a twin-first sort of foreign policy, she's traveled to many countries from Brazil to Pakistan, to of course the ASEAN countries, reviving these ties as Canada looks to increase non-US exports or double that in the next 10 years. This is part of her trade diversification agenda as well as she engages with ASEAN countries and looks to sign this free trade agreement before the end of the year. There in Manila. More ahead on the Asia trade. This is Bloomberg. I'm David Weston. Join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech, and climate. We go...
Analysis

Canada is prioritizing a trade diversification agenda, aiming to double non-US exports in the next decade while engaging with ASEAN countries to finalize a free trade agreement by year-end. This strategy reflects a shift in foreign policy as Canada seeks to strengthen ties globally amidst rising geopolitical tensions.

Smart money should note that Canada's focus on diversifying trade relationships could mitigate risks associated with reliance on the US market. The emphasis on ASEAN engagement indicates potential growth opportunities in emerging markets, which may attract investment away from traditional partners.

16:42
PDT
Canada and China are increasing trade in canola, beef, and seafood.
CanadaChinaPrime Minister KearneyPresident XiUSDCNH
– A ceiling of 49,000 EVs from China to Canada has been established.
– The relationship is evolving into a strategic partnership.
– Cooperation in energy and people-to-people ties is being prioritized.
– Trade tensions are being managed through structured agreements.
trade relationsstrategic partnershipenergy cooperation
▸ Full transcript
Here when Prime Minister Kearney met President Xi in Beijing, what that allowed was more canola leaving Canada for China and more beef and seafood products from Canada being imported into China. The work that we're doing on other sectors, including auto, is very constrained in the sense that we put a specific ceiling on the number of EVs that would be coming from China to Canada at about 49,000. So that is a very tightly structured agreement between Canada and China to resolve trade tensions. Our relationship with China, though, is broader than that set of issues that I just described. We are certainly elevating our relationship to a strategic partnership. We are cooperating in certain areas, for example, in the area of energy cooperation, in the area of people-to-people ties and ensuring that the populations of our countries can develop and travel and see each other more frequently.
Analysis

Canada and China are enhancing their trade relationship, particularly in canola, beef, and seafood, while imposing a ceiling on EV imports from China. This strategic partnership also includes cooperation in energy and people-to-people ties, indicating a broader diplomatic engagement beyond trade tensions.

Smart money should note that the tightly structured agreement on EV imports reflects a cautious approach to managing trade dependencies, which could signal future negotiations in other sectors. The emphasis on energy cooperation suggests potential investment opportunities in renewable energy and related sectors as both countries seek to deepen their economic ties.

16:40
PDT
China and the Philippines accused each other of naval harassment in the South China Sea.
ChinaPhilippinesLazaroChina DailyAIUSSouth China SeaPhilippine Foreign Affairs SecretaryChinese Foreign MinistryCanadian Foreign MinisterMETAUSDCNH
– The Philippines condemned an AI-generated video from China as dehumanizing.
– Both nations emphasized the importance of peace and stability in their recent meeting.
– China distanced itself from the controversial video, claiming it does not represent its official stance.
– The meeting followed previous sanctions imposed by China on the Philippines' defense minister.
geopolitical tensionsregional stability
▸ Full transcript
That's why that's also another rocky one where the two leaders met yesterday and lodged protests against each other after the latest incident in the South China Sea where both sides are accusing each other's naval servicemen of attacking the other with either wooden batons or paddles from a rubber boat. China has called it malicious harassment. What the Philippines said is an act of violence. And yesterday, the Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary, Lazaro, she also raised the issue of this AI-generated video published by state-linked media China Daily. This video depicted the Philippines as a monkey who was being manhandled by the US and the Japanese, and it's a metaphor to show how the Philippines is sort of pandering to these other powers. She raised it yesterday again. She's previously mentioned that this was dehumanizing and disrespectful and called China to take it down. But the Chinese Foreign Ministry has distanced themselves from that video, saying that it doesn't represent the official stance. But still, the Philippines side did say that this was a constructive meeting where both sides underscored the need for peace and stability in the region. It's important the two sides engage with each other, particularly after China had sanctioned the Philippines' defense minister. You also spoke with the Canadian Foreign Minister yesterday. What were the key takeaways?
Analysis

Tensions between China and the Philippines escalated following accusations of naval harassment in the South China Sea, with both sides lodging protests. The Philippines condemned a dehumanizing AI-generated video from China, while both nations emphasized the need for peace and stability despite ongoing conflicts.

Smart money should note that the diplomatic friction could impact regional stability and trade routes, particularly in the context of US-China relations. The Philippines' pushback against China's media portrayal indicates a growing assertiveness that may influence future geopolitical dynamics in the region.

16:37
PDT
Bipartisan legislation to block Chinese vehicles advanced.
US Senate Commerce CommitteeChinaIndiaRubioJaishankarUS automakersUSRZMSenate Commerce CommitteeNorth KoreaMimi LohPRIVATEUSDCNH
– US and India are close to finalizing an interim trade deal.
– Section 301 investigation could impose a 12.5% tariff on Indian goods.
– 100% tariff on generic drugs from India announced for two years hence.
– US automakers face increasing international competition.
trade policytariff threatsautomotive market
▸ Full transcript
The US Senate Commerce Committee has advanced bipartisan legislation that would effectively block Chinese vehicles from the American market. The bill would ban vehicles designed for wireless connections beginning in January. Movement on the proposal, which also covers cars tied to Russia, Iran, and North Korea, comes as US automakers face growing international competition. The US and India are pushing to reach a final trade agreement, even as Washington issues new tariff threats on pharmaceutical products. Both countries' top diplomats have met on the sidelines of the RZM meeting in Manila. Bloomberg's China correspondent Mimi Loh is at the event and joins us now. So, Mimi, what did we get in terms of deliverables in these meetings, I should say, between Rubio and Jaishankar? Well, not a lot yet because the two sides discussed once again their interim trade deal which has been under negotiation for more than a year. But the US official now tells us it could be concluded within three to four months. Most of the sticking points have been settled except for one stumbling block, which is the Section 301 investigation into Indian goods and overcapacity. That could potentially lead to a 12.5% tariff on Indian goods. You mentioned earlier just yesterday, the US had announced this 100% tariff on generic drugs being exported to the US, starting in two years' time, unless these companies move their production to the US. At this point, it's not clear whether India would be able to secure exemptions as part of that interim trade deal.
Analysis

The US Senate Commerce Committee has advanced bipartisan legislation to block Chinese vehicles from the American market, effective January, amid rising international competition for US automakers. Additionally, the US and India are negotiating an interim trade deal, with potential tariffs looming on Indian goods due to an ongoing Section 301 investigation.

Smart money should note that while the interim trade deal may be finalized soon, the unresolved tariff threats could significantly impact Indian exports and the pharmaceutical sector. The legislation against Chinese vehicles signals a tightening regulatory environment that could affect supply chains and market dynamics in the automotive sector.

16:35
PDT
U.S. spending on the Iran conflict reaches $37.5 billion.
IranUnited StatesTrumpChinaNVIDIAMichael CrasioAIGBThe StraitWhite HouseNVDAPRIVATEUSDCNH
– Public support for the war is declining ahead of midterm elections.
– Iran demonstrates effective military capabilities against the U.S.
– China is accused of improperly using U.S. AI technology.
– Potential implications for defense contractors and tech stocks.
U.S. military spendingU.S.-China relationspublic sentimentdefense contractors
▸ Full transcript
Two weeks of bases from Iran and the stockpiles of U.S. interceptors are running low. As you said, it's actually $37.5 billion that the U.S. has spent on this conflict. Taking a step back, Iran has shown the world that it can effectively fight the United States, the world's greatest military superpower, with drones and missiles. The Strait of Hormuz isn't even open. So this is quite a toll, especially for Americans who do not support this war. I mean, they support the goal of Iran not having a nuclear weapon. That is what, as a fact, Trump seizes upon. But this war is increasingly unpopular with Americans in a midterm election year. Seeing the images of caskets returning to the United States is a really stark image for Americans to see. I guess our Bloomberg politics editor with the latest and catching up on some of the other global headlines that we're following this hour, a White House official has accused China's moonshot of improperly using U.S. AI models and NVIDIA chips to create its Kimmy K. Through system. Science and tech policy director, Michael Crasio, says the company probably acquired NVIDIA's GB 300 servers which are banned from being sold to Chinese companies.
Analysis

The U.S. has spent $37.5 billion on the conflict with Iran, which is increasingly unpopular among Americans, especially in a midterm election year. The ongoing hostilities showcase Iran's capability to challenge U.S. military power using drones and missiles, raising concerns about public sentiment as images of returning caskets starkly highlight the war's toll.

Smart money should note that the rising unpopularity of the war could influence U.S. foreign policy and defense spending, potentially impacting defense contractors. Additionally, the accusations against China regarding the misuse of U.S. AI models could escalate tensions, affecting tech stocks and supply chains.

16:33
PDT
U.S. Central Command intensifies attacks on Iran.
U.S. Central CommandIranHouthisRed SeaPresident TrumpMiddle EastBloomberg Digital PoliticsRomy VargheseCentral CommandThe HouthisPRIVATECL=F
– Houthis attack oil tankers in the Red Sea.
– Escalation indicates a lack of negotiation willingness.
– Potential for increased volatility in oil markets.
– Geopolitical risks may sustain oil price premiums.
geopolitical riskoil market volatility
▸ Full transcript
Let's actually delve into the winding of the Middle East conflict with Bloomberg Digital Politics editor Romy Varghese. Romy, so Heidi just mentioned those attacks when it came to the Red Sea. What are we getting from Washington at this point, given that this conflict seems to be now expanding from the realms of just a straight-off-home moves to other shipping routes as well? Yes, you said it. We are seeing a significant expansion of hostilities. And tonight the U.S. Central Command announced that it's launching a 12th straight night of attacks on sites in Iran. And of course, as you mentioned, we've seen the Houthis now say they attacked two oil tankers in the Red Sea. This is very significant. The Houthis, of course, are backed by Iran. And tankers had been using the Red Sea to get around Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So yes, we are seeing a significant expansion of hostilities and rhetoric from both sides shows that there's no indication of negotiating right now. Yeah, tell us a little bit more about that, because both sides, President Trump now saying that Iran is getting hit so hard, but he's not necessarily ready for a deal. Tehran is also pushing back that any conversations are happening. So what will bring them to the table? It looks very tough right now.
Analysis

The U.S. Central Command has announced a 12th consecutive night of attacks on sites in Iran, indicating a significant escalation in hostilities in the Middle East. The Houthis have attacked two oil tankers in the Red Sea, further complicating shipping routes and signaling a lack of willingness to negotiate from both Iran and the U.S.

Smart money should note that the ongoing conflict is likely to disrupt oil supply chains and increase volatility in energy markets. The rhetoric from both sides suggests that a diplomatic resolution is not imminent, which could lead to sustained geopolitical risk premiums in oil prices.

16:31
PDT
Alphabet's cloud revenue surged over 80%, but raised CapEx guidance hurt stock performance.
AlphabetIBMSK HynixTokyo ElectronNASDAQ 100USAISKBig TechGOOGL
– IBM cut its full-year guidance after mainframe sales dropped over 40%.
– Asian suppliers may benefit from increased spending by hyperscalers.
– Investor expectations for AI spending are exceptionally high.
– Pressure on traditional software companies like IBM is likely to continue.
AI investmentcloud revenue growthsoftware sector challenges
▸ Full transcript
Hi, Big Tech earnings have kicked off in the US. So we'll be watching the suppliers across Asia. Of course, we got the numbers from Alphabet, for example, which was really interesting because we're seeing the downside pressure in the late session. We had this huge beat when it came to really the cloud revenue surging more than 80%. They raised also their 2026 CapEx guidance, and that's really sort of hurting the stock. We want to see whether all of this AI investment will actually pay off. What's interesting though is that we could see some upside from all of this. I mean, if the hyperscalers will start spending more than the picks and shovel stocks that we have across Asia, SK Hynix and Tokyo Electron, parts components makers, all of them could see a little bit of a boost, right? So we're following the future space right now. We're seeing that upside in Asian stocks. IBM, though, is a clear example of that downside pressure on software. I mean, the company keeps insisting that its infrastructure software is not really easily replaceable by AI, but we saw them really cut their full-year guidance after mainframe sales plunged more than 40 percent. Yeah, Sherry, there's no indication that that pressure on some of these software companies, even ones like IBM, are going to alleviate anytime soon, right? And as you mentioned, that pressure when it comes to the futures, NASDAQ 100 futures are off by just about half a percent there, really coming into how high these investor expectations are when it comes to just the extraordinary amount of spending that's been plunged into this AI, broader AI.
Analysis

Big Tech earnings have begun in the US, with Alphabet reporting a significant surge in cloud revenue, yet raising 2026 CapEx guidance, which negatively impacted its stock. Meanwhile, IBM faces ongoing pressure in the software sector, cutting its full-year guidance after a steep decline in mainframe sales, highlighting the challenges traditional software companies face amid rising AI investments.

Investors should note that while Alphabet's cloud growth may benefit Asian suppliers like SK Hynix and Tokyo Electron, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to high expectations for AI spending. The persistent decline in IBM's performance signals a potential shift in the software landscape, where AI's impact may not be as favorable for all players, suggesting a need for selective investment strategies.

16:24
PDT
Tesla is moving beyond core EV sales, focusing on AI and robotics.
TeslaBYDG-leadsSICsChang'anEVTSLAUSDCNH
– This shift may benefit competitors like BYD, but they face significant competition in China.
– BYD's margins could be pressured by numerous domestic rivals.
– Tesla's valuation reflects its broader ambitions beyond just vehicle sales.
– Investors should monitor the competitive landscape in the EV market.
EV market dynamicsAI and robotics investmentChinese automotive competition
▸ Full transcript
For the second half of this year and beyond, he is not one to bet against. He is a force, like the likes of which we haven't seen in a hundred years in this country. So I would not bet against him. They'll find a way to get this done and deliver. Yeah, and I like that your top talking point is that he seems like he's never comfortable unless he's daring investors to bet against him. Unless nothing, if not, ultimately always a contrarian, right? But if the EV car unit sales is, as you say, taking a backseat, pardon the pun, does that mean that we can continue to kind of expect more of a bullish position for companies like BYD if that's no longer kind of the main competitive priority for Tesla? That's right. It does relieve a lot of Chinese automakers that Tesla's moving beyond the core business of cars. That's definitely true for BYD and others. At the same time, BYD has its own sort of challenges, and that is that it's surrounded by large numbers of competitors inside China, the G-leads, the SICs, the Chang'an's, who are taking market share from BYD inside China and further reducing margins. So yes, it's good news that Tesla's moved out of the picture. The tougher news is how do we make profits in an environment where everybody's all in and driving margins down month by month and week by week. What's the end game?
Analysis

Tesla's shift away from core EV sales may bolster competitors like BYD, as the company focuses on broader AI and robotics ambitions. However, BYD faces intense competition in China, which could pressure margins despite Tesla's retreat from the car market.

Smart money should note that while Tesla's pivot could relieve pressure on BYD, the competitive landscape in China remains fierce, potentially undermining profitability for all players involved. The evolving focus on AI and robotics at Tesla suggests a long-term strategic shift that could redefine market dynamics in the automotive sector.

16:22
PDT
Tesla's valuation is five times that of Toyota.
TeslaElon MuskToyotaSpaceXStarlinkEVAITSLAGC=F
– Elon Musk positions Tesla as an AI and robotics company.
– The focus is shifting from EV sales to autonomy.
– Concerns exist about Musk's distractions with SpaceX.
– Potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX could create synergies.
autonomous vehiclesAI technologymergers and acquisitions
▸ Full transcript
There's so much going on. So is it in a sense unfair? Do we need to move beyond judging this company on just the standard calculus of EV sales now? That's right. Cars as a business have taken a backseat at Tesla. If you look at the valuation, Tesla is five times more valuable than the next most valuable auto company, which would be Toyota. So we're really talking about, and Elon has said this, we're an AI and robotics company. Our future is autonomous. That's where all of our chips are being placed. Batteries and other businesses are good, but the real breakthrough, the gold mine, will be when autonomy is perfected. One of the biggest criticisms and concerns over Elon Musk, even amongst his supporters, is that he's got a lot going on, right? And perhaps prone to distraction, particularly with SpaceX, particularly with data centers in space. Do you see a point when Tesla and SpaceX will eventually merge to become one company? That's the big bet out there. It's definitely from my perspective, it's Elon's vision to bring SpaceX and Tesla together and offer an array of what they call, right, these days physical AI products and services. You've got Starlink, you have the rockets, you have autonomous cars, you have Earthlink, have so many businesses that would re.
Analysis

Tesla's valuation is significantly higher than its competitors, with Elon Musk emphasizing the company's shift towards AI and robotics rather than just electric vehicle sales. The focus on perfecting autonomy is seen as the key to unlocking Tesla's true potential, despite concerns over Musk's distractions with other ventures like SpaceX.

Smart money should note that Tesla's future hinges on the successful integration of its various technologies, including autonomous vehicles and space-based services. The potential merger of Tesla and SpaceX could create a unique ecosystem of physical AI products, which may redefine market expectations for both companies.

16:20
PDT
Musk emphasizes need for more time on humanoid robots and robo taxis.
Elon MuskTeslaHas TeslaSan FranciscoTSLA
– Tesla's focus may be shifting away from traditional electric vehicles.
– Investor sentiment could be impacted by delays in innovation.
– Musk's history of overpromising raises concerns about future timelines.
– Operational challenges may be more significant than publicly acknowledged.
innovation timelinesoperational challenges
▸ Full transcript
I do wonder, the propensity for just a huge amount of market focus on some of Elon Musk's other projects, SpaceX, of course, has been the dominant for headlines. Has Tesla taken a little bit of a backseat for this quarter? There was a moment during the earnings call when he said something that really struck me. He said, we don't want optimists, that's the humanoid robot, to go haywire. What did he mean by that? He said, I need more time. This is not a case of Tesla replacing gasoline engine cars with electric, battery-powered cars. It's a future in which cars drive themselves and humanoid robots do the work of people in factories and other places. So it's a jump of a magnitude he has not encountered before. And his main message today on the call was, I need more time to get this exactly right. The stakes are incredibly high. If this works, it's going to be amazing. Need more time. Need more time when it comes to the nascent robo taxi business as well because that was also disappointing. That's right. There's always with Elon he likes to defy investors by promising a glorious future and then delivering late. So there's promise of robo taxis. I was recently in San Francisco. They're on the road. They're being tested. They're amazing looking. They're two-door coupes without any steering wheel without any pedals. We haven't seen.
Analysis

Elon Musk indicated that Tesla's focus may be shifting as he emphasized the need for more time to develop humanoid robots and the robo taxi business, suggesting that the company is not merely transitioning from gasoline to electric vehicles but is aiming for a more transformative future. This raises concerns about the timeline for Tesla's innovations and the potential impact on investor sentiment as expectations may not align with reality.

Smart money should note that Musk's repeated calls for more time could signal deeper operational challenges within Tesla, particularly in its ambitious projects. The market may react negatively if these delays continue, especially as investors are already wary of overpromising and underdelivering in the tech space.

16:18
PDT
Oil prices are rising due to geopolitical tensions.
Mark CranfieldFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankBank of JapanSK HynixSamsungKorean wonJapanese yenUSIranRed SeaBloombergPRIVATE
– Bond markets are reacting to inflation expectations and Fed policies.
– Tech sector valuations are under pressure from declining free cash flow.
– The Japanese yen remains weak despite potential BOJ policy shifts.
– South Korea's GDP growth is supported by semiconductor exports.
geopolitical riskFed policybond market dynamicstech sector valuations
▸ Full transcript
Bringing you up to the minute space news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Ed Ludlow at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and this is Bloomberg. The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. Get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close weekdays on Bloomberg. Context changes everything. I think the day is about to start, and you're already looking for that edge. The opening trade brings you everything you need to know as markets open across Europe. I've got Johnson, I'm Anna Edwards, and I'm Tom McKenzie. This is your Opening Trade. Only on Bloomberg.
Analysis

Geopolitical tensions from the US-Iran war and recent attacks in the Red Sea are pushing oil prices higher, impacting bond markets and equities. The Federal Reserve's lack of forward guidance adds uncertainty, with potential for a hawkish shift in messaging that could lead to precautionary interest rate hikes.

16:15
PDT
BOJ's gradual rate hikes may not impact yen significantly.
Bank of JapanJapanese yenKorean wonSouth KoreaSK HynixSamsungBloombergMark CranfieldBOJGDPSKPRIVATE
– South Korea's GDP growth outperformed expectations at 0.6%.
– Semiconductor exports are crucial for South Korea's economy.
– The Korean won remains weak despite positive economic indicators.
– Market sentiment is cautious regarding currency stability.
central bank policycurrency stabilitysemiconductor exportseconomic growth
▸ Full transcript
If they keep on going for 25 basis points over a stretched period of time, they won't get to the neutral rate until 2028. That is not going to change the direction of the yen because the rest of the world is also moving up with interest rates. Differentials will stay much as they are. It's really time for shock or no. Next week will be a good time to do it. Mark Cranfield will be watching the BOJ decision next week. Bloomberg and live strategist, of course, we're watching the Japanese yen. We're also watching the Korean won because we have seen incredible weakness, of course, in this economy. When it comes to the currency space, we are seeing these mass exports of semiconductors helping the economy, the second quarter GDP coming in right now. But the Korean won hasn't necessarily budged that much. You can see right there, it's a surprise to the upside, second quarter GDP growth expanding 0.6% quarter on quarter. The estimate was only for growth of 0.4%. We've had semiconductor exports, the artificial intelligence fuel chip boom that's supporting the case and the economy for South Korea. Not necessarily the blowout numbers that we got in the first quarter where we saw the fastest growth since late 2021, but still incredible numbers for an economy. Of course, that is kind of heavily dependent, Heidi, on semiconductors right now. Almost just two companies running the entire Cosby, the SK Hynix stock and Samsung. We're starting to see that energy story come back into the fray, right? Because obviously these companies...
Analysis

The Japanese yen is under pressure as the Bank of Japan's slow rate hikes may not sufficiently alter its trajectory, especially with global interest rates rising. Meanwhile, South Korea's economy shows resilience with a surprising GDP growth of 0.6%, driven by semiconductor exports, yet the won remains weak despite this positive data.

Investors should note that the BOJ's cautious approach could lead to further depreciation of the yen, while South Korea's reliance on a few major companies for growth highlights vulnerability in its economic structure. The semiconductor boom may not be enough to stabilize the won, indicating potential risks in currency markets amid global economic shifts.

16:13
PDT
BOJ may act faster on interest rates.
Bank of JapanBOJJapanese yenDolly NJGBBut MarkPRIVATE
– JGB two-year yield at highest since 1995.
– Skepticism remains about BOJ's effectiveness.
– Yen trading around 163 against the dollar.
– Market not fully pricing in October BOJ meeting.
BOJ policyJapanese yen dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Getting behind the inflation curve, and you need to step up and do something about it quite quickly. It's the same story for the JGB two-year yield, right? Highest level since 1995. And now Bloomberg has learned that BOJ officials could be thinking and even moving faster to high grades than previously expected. But Mark, I gotta ask, I mean, will this help in any way with the Japanese yen? Given that it doesn't necessarily seem to be just a BOJ issue, it's an authorities' Japanese credibility issue at this point. Yeah, exactly as you say. I mean, you can tell that foreign exchange traders are quite skeptical about the idea that the Bank of Japan will really move a lot more quickly than they have done in the past. If you look at where Dolly N is this morning, it's still around 163. We saw it dip very briefly overnight. It went below 163 for a few minutes, then came all the way back up again. So clearly traders are not convinced that the Bank of Japan is really going to change dynamics very much. At the moment, there's some indication that the October pricing, the meeting for the BOJ in October is looking a bit more likely than the December meeting, but even so it's not fully priced in. It's time for the Bank of Japan, if they really want to move the yen, if the Japanese authorities are serious about all getting on the same page and changing the narrative in terms of the yen at the moment is scenes of funding currency they need it to be seen.
Analysis

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) may be considering a faster move towards higher interest rates, as indicated by the rising JGB two-year yield, which is at its highest level since 1995. However, skepticism remains among foreign exchange traders regarding the BOJ's commitment to changing the dynamics of the Japanese yen, which continues to trade around 163 against the dollar.

Smart money should note that despite potential BOJ actions, the credibility of Japanese authorities is under scrutiny, and any significant shift in the yen's value will require a unified approach from all stakeholders. The market is not fully pricing in the likelihood of an October BOJ meeting, suggesting that traders are cautious about the timing and effectiveness of any policy changes.

16:11
PDT
AI valuations are seen as overly optimistic.
Federal ReserveEuropean Central BankAIequity marketsoil pricesFOMCFEDFUNDS
– Equity markets may open lower in Asia.
– Fed's lack of guidance raises uncertainty.
– Potential for hawkish Fed messaging ahead.
– Geopolitical tensions are impacting oil prices.
Fed policygeopolitical riskmarket sentiment
▸ Full transcript
It suggests that valuations on AI before they come to market are really optimistic. So again, that's a negative factor across the market. There's a lot for investors to juggle this morning. Mostly, it looks like it's going to dampen the mood and be something which is not great for equity markets when they get going in Asia this morning. And it really doesn't help that we're not getting any clues coming from the Fed, right? There's no forward guidance sort of approach. How live are the next few FOMC meetings going to be, and should we count next week’s as well? It's probably too close to the July meeting to really call it a live one. It will be surprising if they make a huge change there. What we might get is we might get more dissent. There might be more Fed people calling for action, but they're unable to agree on the timing of that. But it certainly means that through their messaging and through the press conference, they may well start to lean a lot more hawkishly than people are currently pricing for, which will raise the odds for the following two meetings that the chances are the Fed will have to do a precautionary interest rate hike, particularly if we get hawkish messages from the European Central Bank today. They meet later; they've already raised interest rates. They're actually ahead of the Fed in this stage of the cycle. They may well put more pressure on the Federal Reserve by either raising rates or talking about the Fed.
Analysis

Valuations on AI before market entry are perceived as overly optimistic, dampening sentiment across equity markets, particularly in Asia. The Federal Reserve's lack of forward guidance adds uncertainty, with potential for a hawkish shift in messaging that could lead to precautionary interest rate hikes in upcoming meetings.

Smart money should note the increasing pressure on the Fed from the European Central Bank, which may influence U.S. monetary policy decisions. The geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices and the tech sector's cash flow dynamics could create further volatility in the markets.

16:08
PDT
Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are impacting oil prices.
Houthi militantsSaudi ArabiaAlphabetIBMFederal ReserveRed SeaUS-Iran warUSMark CranfieldSo MarkPRIVATEFEDFUNDSGOOGLCL=F
– 30-year bond yields are at their highest since the global financial crisis.
– Traders are underpricing the Fed's inflation management capabilities.
– Alphabet's free cash flow loss contrasts sharply with IBM's performance.
– Cloud companies are expected to outperform traditional software firms.
geopolitical riskbond market volatilitytech earnings divergence
▸ Full transcript
It's all about tech earnings, but of course, let's not forget we still have the geopolitical consequences of the worsening US-Iran war. Bonds are all in focus today as well. A Bloomberg M-Life strategist, Mark Cranfield, joins us now. So Mark, what are you most focused on in terms of the priority for today's trading action? I think a bit of everything that you just mentioned there, obviously the attack in the Red Sea by the Houthis on tankers there. That's a new development which is pushing up oil prices. It's something that traders hadn't really had to deal with. They were used to problems in the Strait of Hormuz. And now we might have to take the Red Sea very seriously as well. So that's a new dimension which needs to be priced into markets and will definitely affect equities to some extent, but particularly bond markets. Bond markets are already very edgy. We have a big story on Bloomberg about 30-year yields being about 5% for the longest period since the global financial crisis. And this certainly will not help in that regard, because if you look at where the Federal Reserve pricing is in relation to inflation expectations and where oil prices are, traders are still underpricing the impact from the Fed in terms of being able to rein in inflation. So that will play out in a steeper curve, higher long-term yield. So that's very much in play as well. And as you talk about the tech sector, particularly the loss in free cash flow earnings, Alphabet is showing negative trends. That's something which is...
Analysis

Tech earnings are under scrutiny as geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly with the recent attack by Houthi militants on tankers in the Red Sea, pushing oil prices higher. The bond market is reacting to these developments, with 30-year yields hovering around 5%, indicating a potential shift in inflation expectations and Fed policy impact.

Traders are currently underestimating the Federal Reserve's ability to manage inflation amidst rising oil prices, which could lead to a steeper yield curve. The divergence in performance between tech giants like Alphabet and IBM highlights a broader trend where cloud companies may outperform traditional software firms in the current earnings season.

16:06
PDT
Alphabet's 2027 capex could exceed $300 billion.
AlphabetIBMGOOGL
– IBM's results were better than feared but still reflect underlying issues.
– Cloud companies are expected to outperform traditional software firms this earnings season.
– IBM's mainframe segment has disappointed, indicating sector-specific challenges.
– Increased pressure on software and services names is anticipated.
cloud growthsoftware sector challenges
▸ Full transcript
Investments will be reflected in 2027 capex, which my number is $300 billion. I think they're probably going to go higher based on what we heard on the call today. Mandi, we also got the results from IBM, which some say were better than feared. But at the same time, does it just reflect all of the concerns around the software sector itself? I mean, look, we are comparing a company that grew low single digits. They pre-announced a couple of weeks back and really cut their guidance. So from that perspective, they are caught in this way where things really aren't going very well from a business standpoint, and mainframes are the key segment that has disappointed this quarter. But there's no doubt that they are under pressure, and they talked about software deals closing, having some slippages. But overall, I think when you compare the two prints from Alphabet and IBM, they're just opposite in terms of the top-line growth expectations. Does that mean we're going to see further downside when it comes to some of these software companies, even ones that are as potentially defensive as IBM? Yeah, I mean, overall, I think it looks like you will see more pressure on software and services names this earnings season, and it's really the cloud companies that should come out on top going by that.
Analysis

Alphabet's anticipated capital expenditures for 2027 could reach $300 billion, reflecting strong growth in cloud services, while IBM's results indicate ongoing struggles in the software sector. The contrasting performance between Alphabet and IBM highlights a potential divergence in growth trajectories within the tech industry, particularly between cloud and traditional software companies.

Investors should note that while Alphabet is poised for significant growth driven by cloud demand, IBM's challenges may signal broader pressures on software firms. The market may see increased volatility in software stocks as earnings season progresses, particularly for companies with less robust growth prospects.

16:04
PDT
Alphabet's CapEx doubled year-over-year.
AlphabetTPUcloudBut AlphabetGOOGL
– Cloud revenue growth is expected to accelerate for the remainder of the year.
– The backlog being five times the segment revenue suggests strong future demand.
– Supply constraints are viewed as bullish for continued demand growth.
– Alphabet is diversifying by selling standalone TPU systems.
cloud growthCapEx trends
▸ Full transcript
Years ago to now, you know, we're just talking about the cloud business growing at 82% at a $100 billion run rate, which is phenomenal. But Alphabet used to be a consumer ads company. So that's how much, you know, things have changed for them. And, you know, the justification for the higher CapEx is that they are seeing so much growth and demand on the cloud outside that now they are selling their standalone TPU systems in addition to what they are selling through the cloud segment. And that's where there is a lot of runway. Their backlog exceeded $500 billion. And some people could be slightly disappointed with the sequential growth in backlog. But there's no doubt, you know, when a company has a segment and a backlog, which is five times the segment revenue, it's a lot of runway. And that's why you will see a big increase in 2027 CapEx as well for Alphabet. Well, that's interesting, right? Because we didn't get that much visibility going into 2027. They talked about being supply constrained, which obviously is bullish for that idea that demand is going to keep going up. Do you have that expectation that the confidence that spend will also keep going up as well? Yeah, I mean, look at this quarter. So their CapEx doubled from last year. The cloud revenue growth was 82%, and all signs are that cloud revenue growth will accelerate for the remainder of the year.
Analysis

Alphabet's cloud business is experiencing significant growth, with a remarkable 82% increase at a $100 billion run rate. The company's backlog has exceeded $500 billion, indicating substantial runway for future revenue growth despite some concerns about sequential growth in backlog.

16:02
PDT
U.S. equity index futures are mildly down amid AI capital spending assessments.
AlphabetBank of JapanBrent crudeNew York traded crudeHouthi militantsSaudi ArabiaKorean marketNICA futuresAINICAThe AlphabetNew YorkGOOGLDXY
– Alphabet's increased capex guidance is injecting enthusiasm into the semiconductor sector.
– Brent crude prices rose by almost 3.5% due to geopolitical tensions.
– The Bank of Japan may raise rates faster than previously expected.
– Mixed performance in global markets reflects uncertainty in tech and energy sectors.
AI capital spendinggeopolitical riskssemiconductor sectorcentral bank policy
▸ Full transcript
Showing volatility and action here, but take a look at how we are shaping up when it comes to U.S. equity index futures, looking pretty mildly to the downside on Thursday trading. Investors are still weighing up these numbers from AI heavyweights, looking for further evidence that the sheer amount of capital spend has been paying off and translating into growth. The Alphabet guidance we'll get more on that in a moment for higher capex, so we'll be really injecting a little bit more enthusiasm into this semiconductor trade that has been wobbling. Whether you're talking about the Korean market, we are seeing cost-be-futures up by 1.7% there, or NICA futures down by 0.41%. Also, of course, watching the impact of the dollar again, going beyond $163 per dollar for the first time since 1986, but then a little bit of brief respite on the sort of changing outlook, the prospect potentially of faster hikes from the Bank of Japan, open to raising rates at a faster pace than consensus among economists. So the money markets are adding to wages when it comes to a hike by October of this year. Switching out the board to take a look at the geopolitics part of the playwright because we continue to watch crude and broader energy and commodities prices. Brent crude last traded high by almost 3.5%. New York traded crude up by 1.25% at the moment, continuing to really ramp up momentum to the upside after we had Houthi militants saying that they're targeting two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea. So this escalation continues to be a distraction, Sherriane, but there's a lot to pass through when it comes to these tech numbers.
Analysis

U.S. equity index futures are showing mild declines as investors assess the capital spending trends from AI companies, particularly Alphabet's guidance for increased capex. The semiconductor sector is reacting to these developments, with mixed performance across global markets, while geopolitical tensions are impacting energy prices significantly.

The market is underestimating the potential volatility stemming from geopolitical events, particularly in the energy sector, as crude prices rise sharply due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the anticipated faster rate hikes from the Bank of Japan could shift investor sentiment and capital flows, particularly in tech and semiconductor stocks.

16:00
PDT
Alphabet is increasing spending on AI, impacting its stock performance.
AlphabetIBMTeslaBloombergNASAEd LudlowSherrianeIGVAIKennedy Space CenterBloomberg ReefBloomberg BriefPRIVATEGOOGLTSLA
– IBM has lowered its full-year sales outlook, indicating potential weakness.
– Tech sector volatility is evident, with mixed performance across companies.
– Investor sentiment may shift as firms adapt to AI demands.
– Consolidation in the tech sector could accelerate as companies seek competitive advantages.
AI investmenttech sector volatilityearnings outlook
▸ Full transcript
Get the edge at the end of the market day. Get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close. Weekdays on Bloomberg. Context changes everything. When you up to the minute space news, whenever and wherever it happens, I'm Ed Ludlow at NASA's Kennedy Space Center in Florida, and this is Bloomberg. In case you missed it, on Bloomberg Reef. You have semis digging in one corner, but another, you know, the IGV zagging in the other corner. So you've had this cancellation, broadly on the index volatility side. What we've continued to say, you know, you have a guy who's limboing and the limbo stick is 12 inches off the ground. How much further lower can we go for a lot of these metrics like correlation before we see a reflation? Don't miss Bloomberg Brief, live every weekday. This is the Asia trade. I'm Sherriane in Tokyo. The top story this hour. Tech earnings kick off. Alphabet sliding in late trade as it flags even higher spending this year in the race to build AI computing power, IBM confirming a cut to its full-year sales outlook. Tesla misses Wall Street's profit at...
Analysis

Tech earnings are under pressure as Alphabet signals increased spending in AI, while IBM cuts its full-year sales outlook. This reflects a broader trend of volatility in the tech sector, with significant implications for investor sentiment and market dynamics.

The ongoing focus on AI development is creating a bifurcation in tech performance, with companies either investing heavily or struggling to meet expectations. Smart money should note the potential for further consolidation in the sector as firms navigate these challenges and seek to capitalize on AI advancements.

15:57
PDT
Convergence of technology and national security is a key trend.
United StatesNortheastMiddle EastUkraineBloombergScarlet FoodDanny BergerAIIPOThe United StatesUnited KingdomBloomberg DealsPRIVATE
– Underinvestment in private markets is affecting IPO activity.
– Increased interest in drone companies linked to geopolitical conflicts.
– M&A market expected to consolidate amid current economic conditions.
– AI cloud capacity remains a priority for investors.
M&A activityAI investmentGeopolitical riskDefense technology
▸ Full transcript
At some point, the question was who. There is a convergence of technology and national security. The United States is a big country. We're playing in the Northeast. That's an economy as big as the United Kingdom. This is a really interesting space to watch. We're expecting more consolidation. As this is Bloomberg Deals at Bloomberg Invest, I want to talk about the broader deal in the M&A environment. This is a moment in time. We'll see how long we're here. It's far too early to call. There is an underinvestment in what's going on in private markets because everyone's looking for additional AI cloud capacity, and it's very tough to build. Everybody wants to get things going, and the IPO market is just one symptom of that. It is an early indicator of what we're going to see in the M&A market. Let's go to Scarlet Food, who's taking a closer look at drone companies. With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, there's renewed investor appetite for new names in the space. Excellent reporting. I'm Danny Berger, and this is Bloomberg.
Analysis

The U.S. economy is experiencing a convergence of technology and national security, particularly in the Northeast, which is comparable in size to the United Kingdom. There is a notable underinvestment in private markets as firms focus on AI cloud capacity, impacting the IPO market and signaling future trends in M&A activity.

Investors are increasingly interested in drone companies due to ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, indicating a shift in market dynamics. This renewed appetite for innovation in defense technology suggests potential growth opportunities in sectors previously overlooked by traditional investors.

15:55
PDT
Anthropic acknowledges the impossibility of guaranteeing zero risk in AI technology.
AnthropicDarioairline companies
– The company compares AI safety to airline safety, emphasizing the need for public trust.
– Growing public anxiety about AI could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny.
– Firms must proactively address safety concerns to maintain credibility.
– The discourse around AI safety may influence operational strategies in the tech sector.
AI safetyregulatory scrutiny
▸ Full transcript
Scenario where it's something that Anthropic built that caused that? I mean, I certainly hope not. My view is that that probability comes from the very straightforward recipe of the technology, the existence of many countries in the world, the existence of many companies within an economy, and new ones created if the void isn't filled. That's a dilemma that we're in. Half of what we do within the company is try and reduce the risk as much as we can, but it's never going to be zero. Suppose there are a bunch of airline companies out there and you're like, well, I'm going to make an airline company that's safer. It can both be the case that your airline company is 10 times safer than all the other airline companies. But if someone comes and asks you, can you guarantee that your airplane will never crash? I mean, how could you possibly? But if there was a 25% chance of an airplane crashing, you wouldn't get on that plane. That's right. 25% is too high. We're trying to make that probability much, much lower. That is the goal. How do you find yours then? How do you?
Analysis

Anthropic emphasizes the inherent risks of AI technology, acknowledging that while they strive to minimize these risks, they can never be entirely eliminated. The company draws parallels to the airline industry, highlighting that even the safest technology cannot guarantee absolute safety, which raises concerns about public trust and regulatory scrutiny.

Smart money should note that the ongoing discourse around AI safety and regulation could lead to increased scrutiny and potential restrictions on AI companies. As public anxiety grows, firms like Anthropic may face pressure to demonstrate their commitment to safety, which could impact their operational strategies and market positioning.

15:53
PDT
Anthropic prioritizes AI safety alongside product growth.
AnthropicDarioGoogleWhite HouseAIGOOGL
– The company proposes universal basic income as a solution to job loss from AI.
– There is increasing public concern about the societal impacts of AI.
– Anthropic's proactive stance may influence regulatory approaches to AI.
– The dual focus on advancement and caution could attract ethical investors.
AI safetyethical technologyuniversal basic incomeregulatory scrutiny
▸ Full transcript
This technology for thinking through what are the risks? What are the bad things that could happen? And if some of those things come to pass, what is our role in helping to fix them? That is our job, right? We should not just say, well, we were just trying to grow the product. And suddenly there's an entire generation of young women who have eating disorders or who have mental health problems because whoops, we were just trying to grow the product. That's not the stance that I think any technology company should take. I don't think that's the stance that we're trying to take. For a company whose identity is so wrapped up in... We want to do this right. We exist as an AI safety company. How can we just help all of this go well? It can be hard to understand why Anthropic is pushing so hard to advance AI while being so upfront about the dangers. In his essays, Dario lays out what the endgame looks like if everything goes right with AI, a utopian future where machines and humans work side by side. AI, an inevitable force, steered toward prosperity rather than catastrophe. To mitigate the devastation of job loss, he proposes solutions like universal basic income and progressive taxation of AI companies. But as the Omities confront the messy realities of power, politics, and profit, the real test is whether that founding mission can survive the scale of what they're building. Google started with the motto, don't be evil. A founding promise the company quietly retired as it grew.
Analysis

Anthropic emphasizes the importance of addressing the risks associated with AI technology while striving for growth, highlighting their commitment to safety and ethical considerations. The company acknowledges the potential societal impacts of AI, such as mental health issues, and proposes proactive measures like universal basic income to mitigate job loss from automation.

Smart money should note that Anthropic's dual focus on advancing AI and acknowledging its dangers positions them uniquely in the market, potentially attracting investors concerned about ethical technology. Their approach may set a precedent for how AI companies navigate regulatory scrutiny and public perception, influencing future investment strategies in the sector.

15:51
PDT
AI could face bans similar to social media if significant issues arise.
Anthropicsocial media companiesN/AAI
– Proactive risk management is crucial for AI companies.
– Public sentiment is shifting towards caution regarding AI technologies.
– Learning from social media's challenges is essential for AI's future.
– The divide between optimism and fear in AI development is growing.
AI regulationsocial media backlash
▸ Full transcript
It gets more and more of a big thing. Like, you know, it becomes just such a big deal to society. There's more attention on it. There's been massive backlash against social media. Countries are starting to ban it. Could that happen to AI? I think it's absolutely possible. If the social media companies could go back in time and see the world that they see today, would they do anything differently? I like to think the answer to that is yes, I don't know. If we sort of project some of the challenges that the social media companies have faced around child welfare, mental health, election integrity, all of these topics, we're really lucky that we're second. We view it as our job to try and proactively think about all of the things that could go wrong because if we don't, who's going to? You know, I don't know if they actually set out to do the right thing or make the world a better place. And so I don't think if they were going back, they would even knowing what they do, and they certainly should do things differently. I don't know if they actually will, but we can't. This is why we're trying to get this right the first time. Instead of waiting for things to go wrong, then scrambling to justify why it's all okay. The main way I could see AI being, you know, banned or blocked is if something really went wrong. And if something really went wrong, then maybe it deserves to be. You have technologists saying, it's gonna be amazing. And others saying, it could be awful. Where are you on that spectrum? I hope for the best, but plan for the worst. For me, this is the most important work I've ever done.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the potential for AI to face significant backlash similar to social media, with concerns about its societal impact growing. The speaker emphasizes the importance of proactively addressing risks to avoid future crises, suggesting that the industry must learn from past mistakes of social media companies.

Smart money should note that the sentiment around AI is increasingly cautious, with a clear divide between optimism and fear. The proactive stance taken by some companies may position them favorably in a regulatory environment that could emerge if AI-related issues escalate.

15:48
PDT
Anthropic's Mythos exposes major cybersecurity vulnerabilities.
AnthropicNational Security AdministrationPentagonWhite HouseEd LodlowBloombergSan FranciscoBloomberg TechBloomberg TelevisionBloomberg SurveillanceWall Street WeekPRIVATE
– Public sentiment is shifting from excitement to concern regarding AI.
– Protests indicate rising anxiety about AI's impact on society.
– Regulatory scrutiny may increase as national security implications grow.
– The balance of power in AI technology is under debate.
AI regulationpublic sentimentnational security
▸ Full transcript
I'm Ed Lodlow, live in San Francisco, and this is Bloomberg Tech. Every weekday only on Bloomberg Television. We're at the epicenter of a global realignment on a scale not seen for decades. At the intersection between markets, economics, and geopolitics, a forum for sophisticated conversation. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. Join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, tech, and climate. More than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about. In 2AI right now, it's intense. Anthropic has built this really loyal following. There are some people who just love what they stand for, but there have also been protests right outside their office. There's a lot of anxiety, a lot of confusion. There's some real anger right now about what's happening, and it actually feels like it's escalating. Artificial intelligence is the next industrial revolution. Oh. If you look at the data, people are more concerned than excited about what's going on. They think the risks outweigh the benefits, and the truth is, if you talk to the...
Analysis

Anthropic's Mythos has raised significant concerns regarding cybersecurity vulnerabilities, with implications for national security and the balance of power in AI technology. The company faces protests and growing public anxiety as it navigates the ethical dilemmas of its powerful AI tools, indicating a shift in sentiment from excitement to concern among stakeholders.

Smart money should note that the escalating public backlash against AI technologies could lead to increased regulatory scrutiny, potentially stifling innovation in the sector. Additionally, the dichotomy between private sector advancements and government oversight presents a unique investment landscape, where companies like Anthropic may face challenges in maintaining their competitive edge amidst calls for nationalization and regulation.

15:46
PDT
The White House is contemplating stricter regulations on AI technology.
White HouseMythosSilicon ValleyAIMarie HoudurUSDCNH
– There is a growing concern about the national security implications of AI projects like Mythos.
– Silicon Valley's response to regulation is shifting from anti-regulatory to calls for government intervention.
– A balanced approach to AI regulation is being advocated to foster innovation while addressing risks.
– The debate highlights the tension between technological advancement and regulatory oversight.
AI regulationnational securityinnovation risk
▸ Full transcript
We believe that excessive regulation of the AI sector could kill a transformative industry just as it's taking off. But with Mythos and its national security implications proving hard to ignore, the White House now seems to want to gatekeep the world's most powerful AI. It's very funny to me how there's a particular group of people in the tech world in Silicon Valley with a position of like, you know, even having transparency around this technology, even export control, you know, this is all, you know, just totally, it'll apocalyptically destroy our potential to create the technology. It'll kill innovation. And then as soon as they see the first real danger, which I've been expecting all along, there's all this talk of like nationalization and the government should just seize it. Come on folks here, you're yo-yoing from like, the most extreme anti-regulatory, if you look at us the wrong way, are destroying the industry to, you know, this completely communist, the government should grab it all. We need a more sensible, moderate approach. That's the one we've been favoring all along because we've understood the power of this technology. We're not panicking. We're not denying it. We see the smooth exponential and we're responding to it appropriately. Coming up to the minute, geopolitical news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Anne-Marie Houdur in Beijing, China and next.
Analysis

The White House is considering tighter regulations on AI technology, particularly in light of national security concerns surrounding the Mythos project. This shift from a hands-off approach to potential government control reflects the growing recognition of AI's transformative power and associated risks.

Smart money should note the volatility in regulatory sentiment, which could impact investment strategies in the tech sector. The juxtaposition of calls for innovation against fears of nationalization suggests a complex landscape where companies must navigate both opportunity and risk.

15:44
PDT
Anthropic is prioritizing caution in AI releases due to past trade-offs.
AnthropicClaudePalantirMavenSmartNational Security AdministrationPentagonU.S. militaryIranGPSAI
– The company acknowledges the risks of private control over powerful technologies.
– Military applications of AI raise ethical and operational concerns.
– Cybersecurity vulnerabilities identified by Mythos could impact financial institutions.
– Government intervention in AI development remains a significant concern.
AI regulationmilitary technologycybersecurity risks
▸ Full transcript
This has hurt us enormously commercially. Have you had to make trade-offs already that you're not entirely comfortable with? Throughout the entire history of Anthropic, there have been trade-offs, right? In some ideal world, you would prefer to, before you released the first chatbot, to spend years studying every possible thing that could go wrong with it. Now we did delay. We did delay the initial release of Claude, but we did it for a few months. So everything is a trade-off. Now that we're in what I would describe as a commercially leading position, we can afford to move the dial even further towards being careful. That's what the Mythos release was about. It's very hard to do something like that if you're not the leading player. There's this argument: why wouldn't the government take you over? Why would they let a private company control technology that's so powerful? So I think, I actually think that's a very serious question, and I share those concerns. I don't think the government should outright take us over. Every previous powerful technology we've seen in history was either built by the government or originated with the government. So nuclear weapons, obviously, initially built by the government. The internet, GPS, cell phones. AI is the first technology that's been built in the private sector and where government has not really had a serious role and is coming in late to the game. I think that's actually a dangerous and unstable situation.
Analysis

Anthropic's CEO highlighted the trade-offs made in releasing AI technologies, emphasizing the need for caution as the company holds a leading position in the market. The discussion also raised concerns about the concentration of power in private hands, particularly regarding AI's military applications and cybersecurity vulnerabilities.

Smart money should note that the balance of power in AI development is shifting towards private companies, which may lead to regulatory scrutiny and potential government intervention. The implications of AI in military operations and cybersecurity could create both opportunities and risks for investors in tech and defense sectors.

15:42
PDT
Mythos exposes major cybersecurity vulnerabilities across operating systems.
AnthropicMythosNational Security AdministrationPentagonProject GlasswingFEDFUNDS
– Concerns about Mythos include its potential to hack banks and critical infrastructure.
– Federal agencies, including the NSA, are eager to access Mythos despite its risks.
– The debate over access to powerful cybersecurity tools raises ethical questions.
– The ongoing arms race in cybersecurity emphasizes the need for superior defensive technologies.
cybersecurity riskAI regulationgovernment contracts
▸ Full transcript
Mythos identified thousands of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, exposing potential flaws in every major operating system. Anthropics signaled that if fully released, Mythos could hack banks, pry open state secrets, and cripple critical infrastructure. I think the thing that surprised me most about it was the models had been climbing in their ability to find vulnerabilities. It was a particularly large jump. Some of the early companies that we gave this to said things like, 'This is a super weapon. You should have to own a gun license to use it. Please don't release this.' In an initiative called Project Glasswing, Anthropoc gave select organizations access to Mythos. Even federal agencies like the National Security Administration clamored to use it, despite Anthropoc's blacklisting by the Pentagon. I think the future is this kind of cat-and-mouse game, where we need to make sure that the good guys have the tools that they need to defend. And then at some point, the bad guys will have a tool too, and at that point, we have to make sure the good guys have an even better model so they can be ready for this. Is it possible to stay ahead of the bad guys? Really though? That's what we hope. The criticism is you're effectively deciding who gets access and who doesn't. Why should anyone be comfortable with that kind of concentration of power? It wasn't like, 'Oh, it's so powerful and let's decide who gets the power.' It was a very specific concern around cybersecurity.
Analysis

Anthropic's Mythos has revealed thousands of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, raising alarms about its potential to disrupt critical infrastructure and financial systems. The technology's rapid advancement has led to concerns about its misuse, prompting calls for regulation akin to gun licensing for its use.

The initiative to selectively grant access to Mythos, particularly to federal agencies, highlights a significant concentration of power in cybersecurity. This cat-and-mouse dynamic suggests that while the 'good guys' may currently have the upper hand, the potential for misuse by adversaries remains a critical risk that investors should monitor closely.

15:39
PDT
Amadei advocates for human oversight in AI military applications.
Dario AmadeiAnthropicPalantirOpenAIXAIGooglePentagonU.S. militaryChinaICECBPNicolas Maduro
– Concerns over AI technology being used in warfare are increasing.
– Export controls on AI chips to China are a priority for Amadei.
– Anthropic is facing pressure from the Pentagon regarding AI usage.
– The ethical debate around AI could influence regulatory frameworks.
AI ethicsmilitary applicationsgeopolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
This role on the battlefield raises difficult questions, even for a company willing to debate the ethical dilemmas of its own technology. It's a conversation Amadei seems eager to have in public. How do you handle the pressure? I try very hard to communicate and always be straightforward and honest. I get up in front of the company every two weeks and just talk for an hour about just what's on my mind, what's going on in the industry, what's going on in the outside world. Totally uncensored and not only does it build trust, it's very freeing for me where I feel that.
Analysis

Dario Amadei of Anthropic is openly discussing the ethical implications of AI technology in military applications, emphasizing the importance of human oversight in decision-making. His stance on export controls for AI chips to China highlights a growing concern over the geopolitical ramifications of AI advancements.

Smart money should note that the ongoing debate around AI's role in warfare could lead to stricter regulations and potential limitations on technology exports, impacting companies involved in AI development. The tension between military needs and ethical considerations may create volatility in the tech sector, particularly for firms like Anthropic and its competitors.

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