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17:56
PDT
Inolite is expanding production capacity in Thailand.
InoliteChinaThailandBloomberg IntelligenceSean ChenIPOAIHong KongBloomberg Intelligence TechnologyUSDCNHPRIVATE
– China's optical transceiver exports decreased in 2025.
– Sales mix from China has dropped significantly.
– IPO proceeds will fund capacity expansion.
– Market dynamics are shifting away from China.
geographical diversificationoptical transceiver marketsupply chain dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Its capacity outside China, mostly to Thailand. One important macro data point I want to bring up is the export of China's optical transceivers. It actually decreased in 2025, despite triple-digit growth by major players in the sector, indicating that major players, including Inolite, are moving the production away. And actually, one of the main uses of proceeds for Inolite's Hong Kong IPO is to accelerate the capacity expansion in Thailand. The sales mix in China actually reduced from 20 percent several years ago to a single-digit percentage last year. This will also help ease the sensitivity of the business. Bloomberg Intelligence Technology analyst Sean Chen there. Let's look ahead in terms of how the sessions across Taiwan, Hong Kong, Manila, and China are shaping up. We are seeing a little bit of upside when it comes to Hong Kong tech. They're going into the open, perhaps further pressure for Taiwan. We're watching the AI space, of course, moonshot there in focus. Start your search for JPMorgan in Cam ETFs.
Analysis

Inolite is shifting its production capacity outside of China, primarily to Thailand, as evidenced by a decrease in China's optical transceiver exports in 2025 despite growth from major players. This strategic move is aimed at easing business sensitivity and is supported by the company's IPO proceeds intended for capacity expansion in Thailand.

The significant reduction in the sales mix from China, dropping from 20% to single digits, signals a critical shift in market dynamics that could impact pricing and competition in the optical transceiver sector. Smart investors should note the implications of this geographical diversification on Inolite's market positioning and potential resilience against regulatory pressures in China.

17:54
PDT
Inolite's projected discount is 12%, tighter than peers.
InoliteAIHong KongUSDCNH
– The average discount for tech hardware stocks is 43%.
– Inolite leads in optical transceivers for AI data centers.
– Market conditions show a wide range of discount rates.
– Scarcity of AI optics in Hong Kong supports Inolite's valuation.
AI infrastructuremarket valuation
▸ Full transcript
The debut is actually driven largely by the relative value. We saw a large pullback in its A-share performance this week, which has substantially narrowed the discount cushion for the company. With that being said, we do believe the company can trade at a tighter discount in the Hong Kong market compared with its technology hardware peers. In fact, based on its great market price, that would put the discount to about 12%, making it the third-tightest stock among dual-listed tech hardware companies in China. Why is that? Well, I think while the medium or the average discount of technology hardware stocks in Hong Kong versus their mainland shares is substantial at a medium of 43 percent as of close price yesterday, let's not forget the range is also extremely wide, from a discount as deep as 70% to a premium of as much as 12%. We believe Inolite merits a tighter or slimmer discount versus its peer group because of its leading market share, as well as the scarcity of AI optics in Hong Kong. The company is the leading maker of optical transceivers for AI data centers, a critical component for the AI buildup. There's simply no comparable stocks in Hong Kong of similar scale, and also because of its leading market position, we think montage.
Analysis

Inolite's stock is expected to trade at a tighter discount in the Hong Kong market compared to its technology hardware peers, with a projected discount of about 12%. This is attributed to its leading market share in optical transceivers for AI data centers, which positions it uniquely in a market where comparable stocks are scarce.

The significant disparity in discount rates among technology hardware stocks highlights the potential for Inolite to outperform its peers. Smart investors should note the company's critical role in the AI infrastructure buildup, which could drive future demand and valuation upward.

17:51
PDT
Blackstone's earnings exceeded expectations.
BlackstoneT-MobileOracleMetaAmazonMicrosoftGoogleBloombergJPMStrategic Allocation ActiveBloomberg MoneyWall Street WeekPRIVATEMETAAMZNMSFTGOOGL
– FinTech units are showing substantial profitability growth.
– Urban affluent market demand remains resilient.
– Regulatory uncertainties could impact market sentiment.
– Consumer psychology is a critical factor for future growth.
FinTech growthconsumer resilienceregulatory impact
▸ Full transcript
JPM's Strategic Allocation Active ETFs. The burning story has been so powerful. Bloomberg is first to break the numbers. Blackstone is reporting a larger than expected jump. All right guys, I want to go to T-Mobile. We're keeping an eye on those earnings out of Oracle. Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, Google. With the smartest insights. We have seen a consumer that has been and continues to be resilient. There's a lot of reasonable belief that there's still a huge, huge amount of growth here. Continuing coverage on Bloomberg. Good morning. This is Bloomberg. Welcome back to the booming trade. It's Bloomberg Money. This is the Asia trade. This is Wall Street Week. Welcome to Balance of Power. You're watching Bloomberg dealing. Welcome to Bloomberg this weekend. This is Bloomberg Television.
Analysis

Blackstone reported a larger than expected jump in earnings, indicating strong performance amidst a resilient consumer environment. The emergence of FinTech units and urban affluent market demand are key growth drivers, despite regulatory uncertainties and macroeconomic challenges.

Investors should note the significant growth in FinTech profitability, which is five times higher than last year, suggesting a robust opportunity in under-penetrated financial services. Additionally, the resilience of urban affluent consumers may provide a buffer against broader economic volatility.

17:48
PDT
FinTech user growth at 30% YoY.
FinTechQ2GTVGTV
– Transaction volume increased by 90% YoY.
– Lending book quality is being closely monitored.
– Company remains optimistic about future growth.
– Regulatory environment remains a concern.
FinTech growthrisk management
▸ Full transcript
2.7% berjalan di dalam masa minggu depan. Selepas kita melihat proses perjalanan. Saya nak bercakap tentang perjalanan FinTech. Apa yang awak lihat untuk perjalanan perjalanan perniagaan 2026? Macam mana awak melihat perjalanan perniagaan? Ya. Perniagaan ini telah mengalami momentum untuk sejauh dan sejauh. We're really seeing it break through. The number of users is up a year, 30% and number of transactions is up 90% a year. The GTV is up 90% a year. Loan book is up significantly and so it's really, really gaining momentum. The first thing that I want to convey is that we're very, very, very, very vigilant on risk. We publish the quality of our lending book. Dan sejauh ini, kami dapat menghubungi kualiti kecepatan. Sejauh ini, kami akan terus bergerak. Saya perlu berkata juga bahawa dalam Q2 kami telah mengambil beberapa kecepatan. Jadi kami sangat menghubungi. Kami menjadi lebih keras dengan beberapa kualiti kecepatan yang lebih kecil kami. Sebenarnya, perniagaan masih bergerak dengan sangat-sangat hempir. Dan sejauh sejauh kita melihat bahawa kredit kursus berlainan dan dikontrol, saya percaya perniagaan akan terus berkembang dan berkembang.
Analysis

The FinTech business is experiencing significant momentum, with user numbers up 30% and transaction volume up 90% year-over-year. The company is vigilant on risk management, indicating a focus on maintaining the quality of its lending book while continuing to grow.

17:46
PDT
Regulatory uncertainty is impacting stock prices.
Go-ToSanaa TakahichiGaro RitiBloomberg
– Go-To shares have stabilized at 50 Rupiah.
– Company believes long-term fundamentals will prevail.
– Consumer sentiment remains resilient despite challenges.
– Clarity on regulations is needed for market recovery.
regulatory impactconsumer sentimentmarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
Critical indicator of how the overall sentiment goes. The second is that probably we need a bit more clarity around some of the new regulations that are coming into play. And so I think between these two things, if we see positive momentum, we suspect that the overall consumer psyche will remain to be where they are today. It's interesting you mentioned some of the challenges when it comes to the stock market; the 50 Rupiah minimum rule seems to be impacting Go-To shares since about May. Give us your thoughts on this, and would you potentially consider any sort of corporate action to deal with it? Yes, so we've spent a lot of time thinking and talking about this. I'll give you the short version: look, it was really a roller coaster ride for us. We announced our Q1 results on April 28, and the market reacted positively. We went up from 51.52 Rupiah up to 58 Rupiah. However, then there came some regulatory uncertainty with the announcement of the 8% commission cap, and between that and the overall market sentiment, that brought us down to 50 Rupiah and has stayed there since. So we do not believe that this reflects the fundamental value of the company, and we believe that our results that we are showing over the long run will prove themselves. We have, though, to your point, looked at.
Analysis

The overall market sentiment is being influenced by regulatory uncertainties, particularly the 8% commission cap, which has negatively impacted stock prices, notably bringing Go-To shares down to 50 Rupiah. Despite this, the company believes that their long-term results will reflect their fundamental value, indicating potential for recovery if market conditions stabilize.

Smart money should note that the consumer psyche remains resilient despite macroeconomic challenges, but clarity on new regulations is crucial for restoring confidence. The company's strong performance in Q1 suggests that underlying fundamentals may not be accurately reflected in current stock prices, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

17:44
PDT
FinTech unit profitability has increased 5x year-over-year.
FinTech unitHeidiurban affluent marketOur Fin
– Urban affluent customer base shows resilient demand.
– Concerns exist regarding consumer psychology and potential downside risks.
– Overall growth outlook remains bullish despite macroeconomic volatility.
– Market conditions may affect consumer spending behavior.
FinTech growthconsumer psychology
▸ Full transcript
Great to have you with us. So talk us through these numbers and do you think the momentum can be sustained given that the broader macroeconomic and consumer environment does remain challenging? Yeah, hi Heidi, yes. So we are quite bullish about prospects for this year. We will take a look at it. Indeed there are some concerns and volatility around the macroeconomic situation. However, I think we've got two things that are going for us. So one is really the emergence of our FinTech unit. Our FinTech unit posted profitability that is 5x what it was a year ago and that is really growing very nicely. And in this particular market where lending and financial services are still relatively under-penetrated, we feel that this will continue to be a strong engine for growth. The second thing that is helping us is that we have a fairly good chunk of our customers coming perhaps a bit more from the urban affluent market and their demand tends to be a little bit more resilient. So I think with these two things we believe that we still have some runway to grow this year even in spite of the existing conditions. Can you talk about some of the risks then particularly when it comes to the psychology of the consumer? Do you see downside risks at all in your outlook? Yeah. Yeah, so I think there are two parts. One is that there is perhaps some concern around, for example, the...
Analysis

The emergence of a profitable FinTech unit is expected to drive growth despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. Additionally, a resilient demand from urban affluent customers provides further optimism for sustained performance this year.

However, there are concerns regarding consumer psychology that could pose downside risks, indicating that while growth is anticipated, external factors may still impact overall market sentiment.

17:39
PDT
Takaiichi's approval ratings are high but under pressure.
Sanaa TakahichiJapanBloombergGaro RitiShinzo AbeJunichiro KoizumiPrime MinisterPrime Minister TakahichiPRIVATE
– Inflation is the top concern for Japanese voters.
– The recent earthquake has compounded political challenges.
– Takaiichi needs to prioritize voter issues to maintain support.
– Historical trends indicate potential instability for her premiership.
political stabilityinflation concernsnatural disaster impact
▸ Full transcript
Very high, only extremely successful prime ministers such as Shinzo Abe and Junichiro Koizumi had polling numbers this good, this long into a premiership. At the same time, we do need to be conscious of the fact that Japanese leaders tend to be short-lived. And it's whether Takahichi can be an exception to that or not, I think is really the key here. And I think what she needs to do is, you know, as we go into what I assume will be an extraordinary diet session in the autumn, she really needs to start focusing on the issues that the voters really care about. And basically, the number one issue that voters care about right now is inflation. Obviously, the Prime Minister is limited in what she can actually do, but she needs to be making the right noises, I think, about what she's doing. Bloomberg opinion columnist Garo Riti there, as we have also seen Prime Minister Takahichi dealing with a massive earthquake recently here in Japan. Soldiers and emergency crews are continuing the search for earthquake survivors in sweltering weather in southwestern Japan. The 7.1 magnitude quake on Tuesday killed at least 18 people, with another 62 injured. At least three died in a suspected gas explosion at an Aon shopping mall, while another five were killed when a paper mill chimney collapsed. Prime Minister Takahichi has pledged full support for rescue and relief efforts. We have more ahead.
Analysis

Prime Minister Takaiichi's approval ratings remain high, but she faces pressure to address inflation as Japan's economy grapples with a recent 7.1 magnitude earthquake that has resulted in casualties and damage. The political landscape is shifting, and Takaiichi must prioritize voter concerns to maintain her position amidst potential challenges from within her party.

Smart money should note that while Takaiichi's current approval ratings are strong, historical trends suggest Japanese leaders often have short tenures. The focus on inflation and effective communication of her growth strategy will be critical in navigating the upcoming diet session and maintaining public support.

17:37
PDT
Takahichi's approval ratings are declining but still show majority support.
Sanaa TakahichiJapanPrime Minister Takahichi
– Political opponents are looking for openings as elections approach.
– Long-term growth strategies may not align with immediate voter needs.
– Recent legislation has focused on less critical issues for the public.
– The political landscape is becoming increasingly complex.
political riskvoter sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Opponents within the party are certainly looking for an opening. You know, Prime Minister Takahichi is the person who has to lead people into the next election, and anytime an election is coming up, people start to get a little bit concerned about whether they're going to keep their jobs or not. Approval ratings are actually one factor; they're quite an important factor. Despite the numbers being big, they are coming down from a very high place, and most polls still show her with a majority of people supporting her, which is quite unusual for this stage in the premiership. So what's the issue then right now? Is it about having to reorder her political priorities? That would be my take on it, yes. In the first Diet session, she has focused on her growth strategy. I am in favor of her growth strategy; I think it focuses on the right things, but it's a very long-term vision. The thing about a long-term vision is that it's going to take a while to pay off before people actually see an improvement in their lives. The rest of the Diet session has been focused, or at least shall we say, the headlines have focused on legislation that isn't really important for people's day-to-day lives. There's legislation on expanding the imperial household, another bill for banning desecration of the Japanese flag, and most recently, this bill on setting up a backup.
Analysis

Prime Minister Sanaa Takahichi faces political pressure as her approval ratings decline, raising concerns about her leadership ahead of upcoming elections. Despite a drop in support, she still maintains a majority in polls, indicating a complex political landscape where long-term strategies may not resonate with immediate voter concerns.

The focus on long-term growth strategies may alienate voters who prioritize immediate issues, suggesting a potential misalignment between political priorities and public sentiment. This disconnect could impact her ability to maintain support as the election approaches, highlighting the importance of addressing pressing voter concerns.

17:35
PDT
U.S. military strikes against Iran confirmed.
U.S.IranPresident TrumpEuropean natural gasAlpimbegMichael HeathSamsungHynixHong KongTaiwanJapanSanaa TakahichiPRIVATE
– European natural gas prices have increased.
– Retail investor sentiment is fragile after recent losses.
– Aggressive pricing on debt and equities noted.
– Samsung's performance may influence Asian tech stocks.
geopolitical riskIPO demandenergy pricestech sector performance
▸ Full transcript
How that trades in Hong Kong today. And you raise a good point, right? Like it's the calendar of ECM and DCM capital raising is extremely robust. But now we are getting a kind of a question on the demand picture, the results picture of these stocks that are already listed. So what that does to the calendar in the weeks and months to come is going to be very interesting. This pricing move, pricing has been quite aggressive here on the debt side, especially. But equities as well, you saw some really good gains from IPOs; does that trend continue? And does retail, having taken these huge losses across the U.S., across Japan, across Taiwan, across Korea, and Hong Kong, does retail continue to buy these IPOs and chase the AI upside? That's going to be a huge question in the back end of the year. Market reporter Anthony Stevens there with the latest on the tech world and, of course, digesting all of those earnings and exciting public debuts also coming up. Here in Japan, watching politics, the prime minister, Sanaa Takahichi, facing her first real political test with sliding poll numbers, raising questions about whether she is focusing on the issues that voters really care about. Bloomberg opinion columnist, Garou Riti, joins us.
Analysis

U.S. forces have begun launching strikes against Iran, marking a significant escalation in tensions following recent Iranian attacks on U.S. military bases. This geopolitical development has led to a spike in European natural gas prices and raises questions about the stability of energy supplies moving forward.

The demand picture for IPOs in Asia is under scrutiny as retail investors face substantial losses across multiple markets. The aggressive pricing on the debt side and the performance of tech stocks, particularly Samsung, will be critical in determining whether retail investors continue to chase AI-related opportunities in the latter half of the year.

17:33
PDT
30-year U.S. treasury yield sees largest jump in almost 20 years.
SamsungAustraliaHong KongTaiwanU.S.30-year treasuryIPOMXAPIn AustraliaAnthony Stevens
– Samsung's strong earnings may support Asian tech stocks.
– Australia's market shows modest downside amid earnings season.
– Hong Kong is preparing for a significant IPO.
– Taiwan is facing sharp margin drawdowns.
treasury yieldsAsian tech stabilityearnings season volatility
▸ Full transcript
Classic catch a falling knife situation there. We also have some pretty robust Samsung numbers for investors to pour over as well. In Australia, modest downside of about half a percent is about heavy earnings season here starting to get underway there as well. The real story, I suppose, is really what we're seeing when it comes to treasuries at the longer end, that 30-year yield jumping the most in almost two decades. When it comes to tech though, Samsung may provide some support for Asian tech names today. Sentiment clearly remains fragile. Hong Kong is waiting for a big IPO. Taiwan is seeing sharp margin drawdowns. Stakes are very high. Let's get back to our markets reporter Anthony Stevens in Hong Kong. So thin ice or tiptoes. What are we doing here after what has really been an extraordinary first half of the week? In context, today seems like a relaxed day. And that's quite an amazing statement given that Hynix is still down pretty sharply again today after results. Samsung is really helping to draw kind of the line under that pretty solid result. The market is taking it well. So you know, kind of normalcy returns, you get a good result and you get a stock trading higher. And that is going to calm some nerves, especially given how big Samsung is as part of the MX AP. But under the hood, there continues to be this big single name, idiosyncratic risk of round results. We had that in Europe, we had that in the U.S., and we're going to come back to that in the Japan trading session as well. You continue to see this kind of...
Analysis

U.S. treasuries are experiencing significant movement, with the 30-year yield jumping the most in nearly two decades, while Samsung's robust earnings provide a potential support for Asian tech stocks. Despite a modest downside in Australia and ongoing fragility in market sentiment, Samsung's performance is helping to stabilize investor nerves amidst a heavy earnings season.

17:30
PDT
Rate hikes are anticipated in September.
BloombergEuropean Central BankU.S. Federal ReserveDaybreak EuropeBloomberg TelevisionPRIVATE
– Market reaction indicates concerns over the committee's credibility.
– Increased volatility expected in equity markets.
– Smart money should reassess positions based on central bank signals.
– Future communications from the committee may be more cautious.
central bank policymarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
We'll walk you through what you need to know to kickstart Europe's trading day. Live from our European headquarters, we bring you the day's top market-moving stories, unmatched expert analysis, and on-the-ground reporting from across the continent. Tune in to Daybreak Europe only on Bloomberg Television. Context changes everything. The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. Get ahead of tomorrow's trading with the close. Days on Bloomberg. Context changes everything. To give us a sense of what did the core of the committee actually think? I also think many people on the board are leaning towards a rate hike as well. We've already gotten a lot of indication of that, and so I do think we will get rate hikes in September. I actually think today would have been better. The market reaction speaks very clearly that now we need to talk about what is the credibility of the committee because it cannot.
Analysis

The European trading day is set to be influenced by indications of potential rate hikes from the central bank, with many board members leaning towards action in September. The market reaction suggests a growing concern over the committee's credibility regarding its monetary policy decisions.

Smart money should note that the current sentiment around rate hikes could lead to increased volatility in equity markets, as investors reassess their positions based on central bank signals. Additionally, the emphasis on credibility may prompt a more cautious approach from the committee, impacting future communications and market expectations.

17:28
PDT
Samsung expects continued memory shortages to drive demand.
SamsungSK HynixMicrosoftAzurePresident TrumpIranU.S.European natural gasAsia TradeMarie HoudurUSDCNHPRIVATE
– Microsoft's Azure unit grew 43%, exceeding expectations.
– AI product adoption is accelerating, with 365 Co-Pilot reaching 30 million paid seats.
– SK Hynix's results did not meet high investor expectations.
– Geopolitical tensions may influence energy markets.
semiconductor demandAI growthgeopolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
Mit diesen Strecken in Irak. Es sieht aus, dass wir jetzt ein bisschen Zeit haben. Ich bin hier in der Asia Trade. Das ist Bloomberg. Und auch immer, und wo es passiert. Ich bin Ann-Marie Houdur in Beijing, China, und das ist Bloomberg.
Analysis

Samsung is optimistic about robust demand for memory products in the second half of the year, anticipating ongoing shortages that will benefit their bottom line. Meanwhile, Microsoft reported strong growth in its Azure cloud unit and significant increases in AI product adoption, signaling a positive outlook for future spending despite adjustments in capital expenditure expectations.

Investors should note the contrasting market reactions to tech earnings, particularly with SK Hynix's results falling short of lofty expectations, which may indicate a cautious sentiment in the sector. Additionally, the geopolitical tensions surrounding U.S. strikes on Iran could impact energy markets and investor sentiment, particularly in relation to natural gas prices in Europe.

17:26
PDT
U.S. military strikes against Iran confirmed.
U.S.IranPresident TrumpIslamic Revolutionary Guard CorpsJordanIRGCMiddle EastMichael Heath
– European natural gas prices increased following threats.
– Tensions between U.S. and Iran escalating.
– Market volatility expected in energy sectors.
– President Trump's energy supply stabilization efforts challenged.
geopolitical riskenergy market volatility
▸ Full transcript
Those gains that we've seen over the past couple of days. Also, President Trump vowing to hit Iran. We're also seeing U.S. stockpiles slumping as well. But at the moment, we are getting confirmation that U.S. forces have begun launching strikes against Iran at 8 p.m. Eastern time today. And that is a confirmation from the U.S. that we're getting at the moment. The U.S. forces have begun launching these strikes. A powerful response, I quote, to yesterday's attempt at Iranian attacks on U.S. forces based in the Middle East. We're also watching European natural gas prices. They've taken a bit of a jump after those comments from President Trump renewing threats against Iran. He says that they will strike back after yesterday's attack that targeted a military base in Jordan. Let's get the latest with Alpimbeg editor Michael Heath. So certainly an off-ramp inside it seems. No, I mean, you know, we're sort of back to tit for tat. And it's really interesting because it looks like, you know, at the end of last week that the U.S. paused these, you know, strikes and now that the Islamic, you know, the IRGC has taken up the mantle and sort of tried to provoke the U.S. with this attack. Now they say they were actually responding to a U.S. measure but there have been no reporting of that. So it almost looks like this sort of the harder line side in Iran is sort of, you know, wanting to keep the whole process going which makes life very, very difficult for President Trump because he was obviously, you know, he's pretty keen to extract himself from this and, you know, find a way to get energy supplies flowing again. So yeah, really interesting.
Analysis

U.S. forces have begun launching strikes against Iran in response to recent attacks on U.S. military bases, marking a significant escalation in tensions. European natural gas prices have jumped following President Trump's renewed threats against Iran, indicating potential market volatility ahead.

The ongoing tit-for-tat between the U.S. and Iran complicates President Trump's efforts to stabilize energy supplies, which could lead to increased geopolitical risk premiums in energy markets. Investors should closely monitor the implications of these military actions on global energy prices and supply chains, particularly in natural gas.

17:24
PDT
Samsung's chip profit surged significantly, driven by AI memory shortages.
SamsungSK HynixMicrosoftAzureBloombergBloomberg SurveillanceMichael McPRIVATE
– Investor sentiment is mixed, with concerns about AI demand impacting stock performance.
– SK Hynix's results emphasize the volatility and high expectations in the semiconductor sector.
– Microsoft's Azure unit growth indicates strong demand for AI services.
– Changes in Microsoft's capital expenditure expectations reflect a strategic shift rather than reduced investment.
semiconductor volatilityAI demandcapital expenditure strategy
▸ Full transcript
between the rhetoric and the action, bringing you market-moving guests and original reporting. This is Bloomberg Surveillance. The most important news and financial information whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Michael McKee on the Mexican border and this is Bloomberg.
Analysis

Samsung's chip profit soared over 250-fold due to AI memory shortages, with operating income reaching $62 billion for the June quarter, beating estimates. However, investor sentiment remains cautious amid broader concerns about AI demand and significant capital expenditures in the sector.

SK Hynix's results, despite being record-breaking, fell short of lofty expectations, highlighting the volatility in the semiconductor market. Microsoft's Azure unit showed robust growth, with annual revenue surpassing $100 billion, indicating strong demand for AI-related services, but a shift in capital expenditure expectations may signal a longer-term strategy rather than reduced investment.

17:22
PDT
Azure grew 43% in the quarter, exceeding expectations.
MicrosoftAzureMicrosoft 365 Co-PilotAIMSFT
– Microsoft's annual Azure revenue topped $100 billion for the first time.
– Capital expenditures rose 70% year-on-year to $41 billion.
– 2026 capex expectations lowered to $175 billion due to accounting changes.
– Microsoft 365 Co-Pilot now has over 30 million paid seats.
cloud computing growthAI investment strategy
▸ Full transcript
Azure, the cloud computing unit, grew 43% in the quarter. That's its fastest pace since 2022, well ahead of expectations. We got a figure for Azure annual revenue, topping $100 billion for the first time. They looked as well outside of financials. So think about how the AI products are doing? Microsoft said that 365 Co-Pilot now has more than 30 million paid seats, up from 20 million three months ago in the March quarter, a beat on the top line, a beat on the bottom line. But the clarity on spending bit on a quarterly basis, capital expenditures, $41 billion. That represents a jump of 70% year on year. An accounting nuance, Microsoft lowered its calendar 2026 capex expectations to $175 billion from about $190 billion. But stressed that this does not represent a lower investment. It stems from extending the useful life of data centers and office buildings from 15 years to 25 years. And what that does is it shifts more future data center leases from finance leases to operating leases. Essentially, net net, the spending and investment expectation that Microsoft has is exactly the same. That communication was really cheered by investors in the after-hours. Also, perhaps the strongest signal on the AI future spending, Microsoft.
Analysis

Microsoft's Azure cloud computing unit reported a 43% growth in the quarter, surpassing expectations and achieving annual revenue of over $100 billion for the first time. The company also revealed a significant 70% year-on-year increase in capital expenditures to $41 billion, while adjusting its 2026 capex expectations downwards due to accounting changes without reducing overall investment plans.

Investors should note that the adjustment in capex expectations stems from extending the useful life of assets, indicating a strategic shift rather than a reduction in growth ambitions. The strong performance of Azure and the increase in paid seats for Microsoft 365 Co-Pilot signal robust demand for AI-related products, which could drive future revenue growth despite broader market uncertainties.

17:19
PDT
Samsung anticipates continued robust demand for chips in H2 2023.
SamsungSK HynixKat BartonSKAIPRIVATE
– SK Hynix's results did not meet high expectations, leading to market volatility.
– Memory shortages are expected to persist, benefiting Samsung's bottom line.
– The mobile sector is experiencing weakness due to memory shortages.
– Investors are questioning the sustainability of the AI trade.
semiconductor demandAI investment sentiment
▸ Full transcript
So doing so outlandishly well that it's carrying the whole company at this stage. We'll have to see, as you say, how investors respond. Obviously, yesterday SK Hynix was less positive. I mean, even though they were also record results, they didn't meet expectations, very lofty expectations. So there was this, you know, we had a circuit breaker yesterday, and let's hope that today we might have a slightly calmer trading day on the cost beat. We'll have to see. Yeah, I mean, it was interesting SK Hynix was also emphasizing the fact that they had multi-year contracts in order to really emphasize the stability for their company. What did we hear from Samsung? Samsung is similarly very positive. They're emphasizing that they really see robust demand for the second half of the year. They anticipate that these shortages are going to continue, the memory shortages, and for their bottom line, that's obviously incredibly good news. So they are very positive, and they're emphasizing the stability of this demand longer term. But whether investors are impressed by that amid obviously much broader questioning of AI, the AI trade, I think what remains to be seen. Bloomberg's sole bureau chief, Kat Barton, there with the latest on Samsung. And of course, Kat also mentioned the fact that we had a little bit of weakness when it comes to the mobile sector; we have seen the shortages of memory really hitting that sector.
Analysis

Samsung reported robust demand for chips in the second half of the year, emphasizing the ongoing memory shortages that bode well for their bottom line. In contrast, SK Hynix's results fell short of lofty expectations, leading to a circuit breaker and a cautious market response.

Investors should note the contrasting narratives between Samsung's optimism and SK Hynix's struggles, which highlight the volatility in the semiconductor sector. The emphasis on multi-year contracts by SK Hynix suggests a strategic approach to stabilize revenue amidst fluctuating demand, a factor that could influence investor sentiment moving forward.

17:17
PDT
Samsung's chip operating income beat estimates significantly.
SamsungSK HynixKaxiaBloombergCFOAISKWatch Chief Future OfficerBloomberg CryptoPRIVATESKHINIX
– Concerns persist about the sustainability of chip demand.
– Retail-driven sell-off in the Korean market affects major players.
– SK Hynix shares dropped 6.6% amid market volatility.
– Potential for increased shareholder returns for Kaxia.
semiconductor demandAI technology impact
▸ Full transcript
That is what kind of builds out being a successful CFO. Watch Chief Future Officer only on Bloomberg. Welcome to the world of decentralized finance. Bloomberg is covering all things crypto, the people, the transactions, and the technology. Bloomberg Crypto, Tuesdays only on Bloomberg. Take a look at what we're watching when it comes to the reaction to these Samsung numbers, right? Seeing robust chip demand in the second half. These numbers, of course, coming amidst really something of an existential crisis where investors are really questioning the huge amount of capital spending and investment that's gone into some of these names versus potentially signs of waning demand. Chip profit for Samsung soaring over 250-fold on the back of these AI memory shortages. The chip operating income coming in at $62 billion for the June quarter. That was a beat on estimates. We are watching pretty much a downside picture for that stock. SK Hynix also lowered by 6.6%. This afternoon we've seen that 16% retail-driven sell-off in the Korean market, Kaxia, trading lower by 1%. There are some hopes that this is going to spark some stepped-up shareholder returns for that stock. Let's get some more on these.
Analysis

Samsung's chip profit surged over 250-fold to $62 billion for the June quarter, driven by AI memory shortages, despite concerns over waning demand and high capital expenditures. The Korean market saw a 16% retail-driven sell-off, impacting SK Hynix and Kaxia, raising questions about future shareholder returns.

The significant profit increase for Samsung highlights the volatility in the semiconductor market, where demand can spike dramatically due to specific technological needs like AI. However, the retail sell-off suggests that investors are cautious about the sustainability of this demand, indicating potential overvaluation in the sector.

17:15
PDT
End-use efficiency is often perceived as too expensive or difficult.
Bloomberg EconomicsKevin WalshAnna WongEast Brain InvestmentsJapanTaiwanDRAMNANDAIFed
– There is a need for education on existing solutions for efficiency.
– Investors should focus on companies that are innovating in efficiency technologies.
– Overcoming mental models can unlock new market opportunities.
– The potential for significant returns exists in the efficiency sector.
efficiency technologiesinvestment opportunities
▸ Full transcript
The human side of this overcoming people's mental models, let's say, end-use efficiency is too expensive. It's too hard. These are all wrong. And so we've got to show them how to do these things because they exist and they're possible today.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the need to overcome mental barriers regarding end-use efficiency in various sectors, emphasizing that solutions are available and feasible today. This insight suggests that there is a significant opportunity for innovation and investment in efficiency technologies that could yield substantial returns.

17:11
PDT
Fed holds rates, easing AI capex concerns.
JapanTaiwanFedhyperscalerstraditional companiesAIMiddle EasternFEDFUNDSCL=F
– Market awaits guidance on AI spending trends.
– Rising oil prices may impact component manufacturing.
– Semiconductor and memory sectors face long-term challenges.
– Excess capacity expected in the semiconductor market by 2027.
AI capital expendituresFed policyoil market impactsemiconductor sector outlook
▸ Full transcript
Japan and Taiwan are key areas when we talk about electronic component makers. The fact is that the competition for electronic components, especially amongst global competitors, is definitely not as heavy as what we see with semiconductors as well as with memory. Now, ultimately speaking, when we look at what's happening with central bank policies, I think specifically what's happened with the Fed earlier today in terms of not raising interest rates does help because there was a notion that if the Fed was going to raise interest rates, that would have an impact in terms of potential AI capex decline as a result of a rise in interest rates. So at least we get that out the door in terms of while the Fed is on hold at least for one more time. So potentially, you know, we might not necessarily see the weakness. I think more importantly, what's going to be important is more guidance from companies, not necessarily just from hyperscalers, but also from traditional companies. And overall, in terms of their second half and that more importantly into 2027, what's going to happen with their AI capex as well? Because we know that hyperscalers and other tech companies do spend quite a bit when it comes to AI capex, but generally speaking traditional companies are also spending quite a bit now on their AI capex and it's going to be interesting to see specifically with what we're seeing whether or not we're going to also see some potential pullback in terms of AI capex from traditional companies. Can how big is the oil variable in markets like Japan where they're very dependent on Middle Eastern oil but not just oil we're talking about petroleum byproducts as well that go into all of these factories, including of course, component makers. Yeah, and that is going to be something that we're going to have to carefully keep an eye on.
Analysis

The Fed's decision to hold interest rates steady alleviates immediate concerns about potential declines in AI capital expenditures, particularly among hyperscalers and traditional companies. However, the market is keenly awaiting further guidance on AI spending trends as we approach 2027, especially in light of rising oil prices impacting component manufacturing in Japan and Taiwan.

Smart money should note that while the Fed's pause may stabilize short-term sentiment, the long-term outlook for semiconductor and memory sectors remains cautious due to anticipated excess capacity and weakening margins. Additionally, the interplay between oil prices and manufacturing costs could create volatility in the electronic components market, particularly for companies reliant on Middle Eastern oil.

17:09
PDT
Electronic component makers are expected to outperform due to reduced competition.
AsiaJALDRAMNANDhyperscalersAI
– Semiconductors and memory sectors are viewed as weakening over time.
– Excess capacity in the semiconductor market is projected for 2027.
– Current memory price increases may not sustain long-term.
– Hyperscalers may reduce AI capex, impacting memory demand.
semiconductor outlookmemory pricinginvestment strategy
▸ Full transcript
But generally speaking for us when we're looking at the Asia tech market as a whole, we feel that the electronic component makers still do have better opportunities. When we look at going forward, whether it be ASPs or specifically margins because of a lack of competition for electronic components, there are going to be pockets in areas where we would expect some investors to really start to bottom-fish and look for some opportunities, especially given the correction that we've seen so far in July. But you're actually underweight when it comes to semiconductors and memory. Why? The fact is that we've been underweight semiconductor as well as memory now for the last six months. Overall, in our view, we think that electronic components are actually the better way to go because generally speaking, when we look at the average sales price, or specifically when we expect for overall margins, we expect things within the semiconductor as well as especially within the memory space to gradually start to weaken. The fact is that there is going to be a lot more excess capacity out in the marketplace, especially in 2027. Yes, while we are continuing to see a rise in, for instance, DRAM or NAND memory prices, generally speaking, when we look at the change in terms of the overall rise in prices in memory, especially into 2027, that is probably going to soften a bit more. And this is why you're seeing that sell-off right now in particular for JAL, especially when hyperscalers are potentially going to have to reduce specifically some of their AI capex in 2027.
Analysis

The Asia tech market is seeing a shift in focus towards electronic component makers, with expectations of better opportunities due to reduced competition. However, there is a cautious outlook on semiconductors and memory, as excess capacity is anticipated to weaken margins and prices by 2027.

Smart money should note that while there is a current rise in memory prices, the long-term outlook suggests a potential softening, particularly as hyperscalers may cut back on AI capital expenditures. This indicates a need for selective investment strategies within the tech sector, especially in light of the anticipated market corrections.

17:07
PDT
New tariffs expected to raise effective rate by only 0.1%.
Kevin WarshFedCPIBloombergAnna WongEast Brain InvestmentsAYPABloomberg Economics ChiefEconomist Anna WongKen WongFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– Current effective tariff rate is approximately 10%.
– Most inflationary impacts from tariffs are already absorbed.
– Fed's communication on rate hikes lacks clarity.
– Long end of the bond market reacted negatively to Fed's pause.
tariff impactsFed communicationbond market volatility
▸ Full transcript
In terms of the new tariff war, our trade team estimated that the new section through R1 and 338 will only boost the effective tariff rate by 0.1%. So that's basically an effective tariff rate of roughly 10%. That's still lower than before the AYPA ruling or than last year. Our team has looked at the tariff pass-through and we estimated that most of it is already over, and looking forward, whatever inflationary impulse remains in CPI is not really attributed to the tariff. I think the Fed was correct to keep on hold today. I think the mistake is that Kevin Warsh didn't really explain very well why he paused. Furthermore, he didn't explain what the criteria for the Fed to hike in September are, and as a result, the long end of the bond market just revolted. Bloomberg Economics Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong there with the latest on the Fed. That's bringing Ken Wong, Asian equity portfolio specialist at East Brain Investments. Really great to have you with us. I mean, we saw the volatility in the U.S. market, not only reacting to what the Fed did, but also.
Analysis

The new tariff war is expected to raise the effective tariff rate by only 0.1%, resulting in a rate of approximately 10%, which is still lower than previous levels. The Fed's decision to hold rates was deemed correct, but the lack of clarity from Kevin Warsh regarding future rate hikes has led to unrest in the long end of the bond market.

Smart money should note that most inflationary impacts from tariffs have already been absorbed, indicating limited future pressure on CPI from this front. The market's reaction suggests a growing impatience with the Fed's communication strategy, which could lead to increased volatility if clarity is not provided before the September meeting.

17:05
PDT
Fed remains committed to price stability.
Kevin WarshBureau of Economic AnalysisFed ReserveUSPCEFed Reserve Chairman KevinBloomberg Economics ChiefEconomist Anna WongEconomic AnalysisFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– No rate hike decided; focus on September meeting.
– Key inflation revisions expected from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
– Market reaction suggests cautious sentiment.
– Potential for increased volatility leading up to September.
Fed policyinflation managementmarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
Despite that decision to hold, Fed Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has reiterated that the Fed remains committed to delivering price stability. Let me reiterate, there is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch. Bloomberg Economics Chief US Economist Anna Wong joins us now from more. So I guess the question is the dedication to price stability, the dissenting of those, the concern over the anchored inflationary expectations, what we're seeing in the Treasury markets. Cleave reflects on those investor concerns. So why didn't they just move at this meeting? Yes, so I think that Kevin Warsh ultimately decided he will not favor a hike today, basically because he's waiting for the task force assessments of how one should think about inflation. He had several times expressed frustrations about the current status of inflation measures. And for example, the Bureau of Economic Analysis is due to announce some major revisions to core PCE deflator come September. So I think Kevin Warsh basically wants to wait until September. And so September will be definitely a live meeting for a rate hike. And I think the market's reaction today is basically.
Analysis

Fed Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability, indicating no soft inflation target under the current committee's watch. He opted against a rate hike at this meeting, awaiting key inflation revisions due in September, suggesting that the next meeting will be critical for potential policy changes.

Smart money should note that Warsh's decision reflects a cautious approach to inflation management, highlighting the importance of upcoming economic data. The market's reaction today indicates a wait-and-see sentiment, which could lead to increased volatility as investors adjust expectations ahead of the September meeting.

17:02
PDT
Samsung's earnings exceeded expectations, showing resilience.
SamsungSK HynixSouth KoreaU.S.FOMCFedSKSouth KoreanFEDFUNDS
– SK Hynix's stock fell despite significant profit growth, indicating market volatility.
– The Fed's dissent suggests a potential rate hike in September.
– The 30-year yield has reached levels not seen in nearly 20 years.
– South Korea's market is experiencing unprecedented volatility.
market volatilityFed policybond market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Your supplying companies like Samsung and SK Hynix, of course, their capex affects how they sell this year. We just got Samsung earnings, and the results were broadly to the upside, beating expectations. But remember, expectations are so high already that you saw SK Hynix with that six-fold jump in profit, and then you saw the stock plunge. In fact, even in today's session, it's down more than 2%. Samsung is seeing a 1% gain, and this stock has been so volatile. I mean, it's up about 70% this year, but it's just crashed since the June peak. It's not just Samsung and SK Hynix; this really has an impact on the broader South Korean market. The cost has triggered two consecutive circuit breakers, which has been unprecedented for South Korea. So there's a lot of alarm within the country right now regarding what to do with this volatility. When it comes to the Treasury space, there's an argument that what we're seeing from the Fed, the level of dissent, and the expectations now being set up for the next meeting are really setting up the broader U.S. bond market for further rallies. But certainly, none of that is more evident than when you take a look at the long end of the curve, with the 30-year yield soaring to the highest since 2007. So almost 20 years ago, we saw these levels, with rates swaps reflecting roughly a 60% probability that FOMC officials will boost rates at the September meeting.
Analysis

Samsung's earnings beat expectations, but SK Hynix's stock plunged despite a six-fold profit increase, highlighting volatility in the South Korean market. The Fed's dissent signals potential for further U.S. bond market rallies, with the 30-year yield reaching its highest since 2007, indicating rising borrowing costs ahead.

17:00
PDT
FOMC holds rates steady, three dissenters call for a hike.
FOMCBank of JapanSouth KoreaIranJapanBOJScarlett FooPRIVATE
– Increased foreign selling in South Korea raises market concerns.
– Japan's inflation pressures are being closely monitored.
– Tech earnings continue to impact market sentiment.
– Geopolitical tensions, particularly with Iran, remain a key focus.
central bank policygeopolitical tensionstech earnings
▸ Full transcript
The latest business news wherever and whenever it happens. I'm Scarlett Foo, reporting from America's biggest military shipyard. This is Bloomberg. This is the Asia trade war counting down to Asia's major market opens and Heidi seems the narrative hasn't changed this week. We're still watching central banks a little bit more clarity coming from the U.S. with the FOMC holding for the fifth straight meeting. But they have three dissenters that wanted a hike. And of course, we continue digesting tech earnings, not to mention the latest Iran-U.S. tensions. The themes are the same, but certainly the intensity has really ratcheted up, right? Whether you take a look at this reignition of hostilities and the war, these questions over potential policy missteps were certainly dissent at the fair. But also, when it comes to these Asian markets, particularly for Korea, where to next after the faster viewer selling of the past two days? Yeah, lawmakers in South Korea are calling the country a casino now. But take a look at how Japan is coming online first, because we are headed now towards the Bank of Japan policy decision. We have the FOMC out of the way right now. The expectation is for a hold for the BOJ. Of course, we continue to digest more inflation numbers in Japan as well. We're seeing some price pressures. We will be watching the.
Analysis

The Asia trade narrative remains focused on central banks, with the FOMC holding rates steady for the fifth consecutive meeting, despite dissenting voices advocating for a hike. As South Korea faces increased foreign selling pressures, the market's reaction to tech earnings and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, adds complexity to the outlook.

Smart money should note the potential for continued volatility in Asian markets, especially in Korea, as lawmakers express concerns over market conditions. The Bank of Japan's upcoming policy decision could further influence regional sentiment, particularly amid rising inflation pressures in Japan.

16:58
PDT
Samsung's chip operating profit surpassed expectations at 89.2 trillion won.
SamsungSK HynixKorean wonBloombergLockheed MartinGeneral DynamicsHuntington IngallsMoonshot AIKimi K-3Bank of JapanFOMCDMSPRIVATE
– Mobile networks reported an operating loss of 700 billion won.
– Sales from chip division were 127.5 trillion won, while mobile network sales were 33.2 trillion won.
– Foreign selling in the Korean market slowed, with only $600 million in sales.
– Market futures indicate potential downside despite Samsung's strong earnings.
semiconductor performanceforeign investment dynamicsdefense contractstech valuations
▸ Full transcript
More from your execution management system. Bloomberg Trey DMS. In case you missed it, on Bloomberg Surveillance. The relax row, which is in economy, is I think one of the coolest things we've done in a long time. A blocked middle seat in coach is just another example. Scott, have you had that idea for a long time? In fairness, Aaron New Zealand is one that came up with it and I've wanted to do it ever since they did it. Of all the stuff we've done, I personally think it is one of the coolest things we've done. I love the idea of the relax row. When I was a teenager, young in my 20s flying, when I saw an empty row of three seats and the plane taking off, I'd never been more excited. And as soon as you got up to about 35,000 feet, I was on it, trying to lie down and move the armrest to make this work. I spent a number of trips when I was young and non-revving, doing the same thing. When you're the same, you spot those three seats, that's mine, and you see someone else and I get up, it's not a chance. Yeah, yeah, it actually happened with my younger son. Don't miss Bloomberg Surveillance live every weekday.
Analysis

Samsung's second quarter results showed a net profit of 71.2 trillion won, beating estimates, while operating profit reached 89.49 trillion won. Despite the positive earnings, futures indicate potential pressure in the Korean market, particularly for semiconductor stocks amid recent volatility.

16:56
PDT
Samsung's net profit beat estimates at 71.2 trillion won.
SamsungSK Heineck'sBank of JapanNikkeiFOMCUSSKNikkei FuturesPRIVATEDXY
– Chip division profits significantly contributed to overall earnings.
– SK Heineck's stock fell despite a six-fold surge in quarterly profit.
– Market sentiment remains cautious with expectations of downside pressure.
– Nikkei Futures indicate potential declines in the Japanese market.
semiconductor volatilityearnings expectationscurrency stability
▸ Full transcript
Samsung's second quarter results showed a net profit of 71.2 trillion won, with a significant portion coming from their chip operating profit. The chip side of things accounted for 62 billion US dollars, leading to overall profits being several times more than the June quarter a year ago. Samsung expects chip demand to remain strong in the second half and anticipates overall earnings growth as well. However, SK Heineck's, despite a six-fold surge in quarterly profit, saw its stock plunge in the previous session, indicating potential downside in today's market. Nikkei Futures are pointing to some downside today, while the yen stabilizes near multi-decade lows ahead of the Bank of Japan policy decision. This follows a busy week with the FOMC holding rates steady for the fifth straight meeting, as the market digests big tech earnings.
Analysis

Samsung's second quarter results showed a net profit of 71.2 trillion won, driven primarily by a strong performance in its chip division, which accounted for a significant portion of overall earnings. Despite this, the market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued downside pressure following SK Heineck's recent stock plunge and broader market volatility.

Smart money should note that while Samsung anticipates strong chip demand in the second half, the recent sell-off in semiconductor stocks indicates a potential disconnect between earnings expectations and market sentiment. The stabilization of the yen near multi-decade lows and the upcoming Bank of Japan policy decision could further influence market dynamics in the region.

16:53
PDT
Pentagon contracts total nearly $135 billion.
Lockheed MartinGeneral DynamicsHuntington IngallsMoonshot AIKimi K-3PentagonTrump administrationIGVAIDowning StreetAndy BurnhamPrime MinisterPRIVATEDXY
– Lockheed Martin awarded $59 billion for missile production.
– General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls receive $76 billion for submarines.
– Moonshot AI valued at $35 billion after $3.5 billion funding.
– AI sector continues to attract significant investment.
defense spendingAI investmentgeopolitical tensions
▸ Full transcript
Another, you know, the IGV zagging in the other corner, so you've had this cancellation broadly on the index volatility side. But we've continued to say, you know, you have a guy who's limboing and the limbo stick is 12 inches off the ground. How much further lower can we go for a lot of these metrics like correlation before we see a reflation? Don't miss Bloomberg brief live every weekday. When news breaks, in comes the car into Downing Street. Bloomberg has you covered. Andy Burnham arriving. For all the context and clarity you need. A broad vision here from the new Prime Minister. Here at first on Bloomberg. The latest from the corporate front now on the Pentagon has awarded major defense contracts with billions of dollars as the Trump administration works to boost weapons stockpiles drained by the Iran war. Lockheed Martin won a $59 billion deal to sharply expand patriot missile production. General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls secured contracts worth close to $76 billion for nuclear submarines and upgrading shipyard infrastructure. Moonshot AI has secured a $35 billion valuation after raising $3.5 billion in a financing round. Sources say that's far more than the Beijing-based startup was aiming for as it rides in the success of its breakthrough Kimi K-3 model.
Analysis

The Pentagon has awarded significant defense contracts, including a $59 billion deal to Lockheed Martin for expanding patriot missile production and nearly $76 billion to General Dynamics and Huntington Ingalls for nuclear submarines and shipyard upgrades. Additionally, Moonshot AI has achieved a $35 billion valuation after raising $3.5 billion, exceeding expectations due to the success of its Kimi K-3 model.

Smart investors should note the increasing defense spending amid geopolitical tensions, which could signal a sustained demand for defense contractors. Furthermore, the substantial valuation of Moonshot AI highlights the growing interest in AI technologies, suggesting potential investment opportunities in the tech sector as it continues to attract significant capital inflows.

16:50
PDT
Samsung's net profit missed expectations, while operating profit exceeded forecasts.
SamsungSK HynixSouth KoreaAnthony StevensBloombergSKPRIVATE
– Futures indicate continued pressure in the South Korean market despite earnings beat.
– Foreign selling slowed to around $600 million, suggesting cautious investor sentiment.
– The semiconductor sector remains under scrutiny amid ongoing volatility.
– Leveraged ETFs are contributing to market swings, raising regulatory concerns.
semiconductor volatilityforeign investment dynamics
▸ Full transcript
In terms of return, that is going to be very interesting. Lastly, we're going into a day where retail has taken a big bath, right? So will foreigners come in to buy this result? Is another question. We saw the Korean won bounce quite hard yesterday, actually, as foreign selling kind of slowed into what was a very deep downturn. So you saw foreign selling only coming in around $600 million, which for the size of the selling is not that big. So we'll be very interested to see the floor dynamics and the details of the reporting in this number. Yeah, Anthony Stevens, there our market reporter as we're getting those details had Anthony mentioned. Let's break it down. Second quarter chip operating profit coming in at 89.2 trillion won, which is also surpassing expectations when it comes to the second quarter mobile networks operating loss. And remember here we had seen some weakness when it comes to the mobile side of things of 700 billion won. The sales number of chips sales is 127.5 trillion won, mobile network sales is 33.2 trillion won. So, we'll continue to get these lines from Samsung, but suffice it to say that when it comes to the net, we have beat a little bit to the upside, but futures going into the market opens in South Korea are still pointing to a little bit of pressure. Of course, not surprising given that we saw that market reaction to SK Hynix's results as well. This is Bloomberg.
Analysis

Samsung's second-quarter results showed a net profit of 71.2 trillion won, slightly below expectations, while operating profit came in at 89.49 trillion won, surpassing forecasts. Despite the earnings beat, futures indicate continued pressure in the South Korean market, reflecting broader volatility and concerns over the semiconductor sector's performance.

The market's reaction to Samsung's results highlights the fragility of investor sentiment in a concentrated market like South Korea, where foreign selling has slowed but remains significant. The mixed performance of Samsung and SK Hynix underscores the risks associated with leveraged ETFs in this environment, as they may exacerbate volatility in an already turbulent market landscape.

16:48
PDT
Samsung's net profit missed estimates.
SamsungSK HynixARMASM InternationalAnthonyHe Su-liASMHBMSKAnd Anthony
– Operating profit was slightly better than expected.
– Sales figures indicate potential weakness in memory and smartphone segments.
– Volatility in semiconductor stocks remains a concern.
– Investors face high stakes in the Korean semiconductor market.
semiconductor volatilityearnings performanceKorean market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
So for example, ARM, ASM International, and other kinds of things. And Anthony, let me just interrupt you for a second, because you're mentioning those earnings, and I'm getting them right now on Samsung's second-quarter results. When it comes to their net, it's actually a beat, 71.2 trillion won. The estimate was for around 78 trillion won. We're also talking about their operating profit coming in at 89.49 trillion won. Now these are the full results. Remember we were expecting them after their preliminary quarterly operating profit came in and broadly these lines, so we're sort of holding steady with sales coming in as 171.5 trillion won. We want to see a little bit more breakout from here when it comes to the divisions, but we will be very much focused on the memory profitability, the HBM demand, and even perhaps a little bit of their smartphone business because we have seen the weakness there. But returning to Anthony as we get more lines from Samsung dropping at the moment. I mean, I mentioned it earlier, but this has been a stock that has soared with the Korean market, but at the same time, it's plunged as well. Right? I mean, how high are the stakes for these investors going into these Korean semiconductor makers when we also saw the volatility immense in SK Hynix.
Analysis

Samsung's second-quarter results showed a net profit of 71.2 trillion won, falling short of the estimated 78 trillion won, while operating profit was reported at 89.49 trillion won. The company's sales reached 171.5 trillion won, but concerns linger over memory profitability and weakness in the smartphone sector.

Investors should note the volatility surrounding Korean semiconductor stocks, particularly as Samsung's performance reflects broader market trends. The significant fluctuations in SK Hynix and Samsung highlight the risks associated with concentrated investments in the semiconductor sector amid changing demand dynamics.

16:46
PDT
Samsung and SK Hynix earnings disappoint despite previous gains.
SamsungSK HynixPhiladelphia semiconductor indexFOMCGovernor WalshSouth KoreaAICapExSKBloomberg Deputy Seoul BureauChief He SuWall StreetFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– Philadelphia semiconductor index down over 5%, indicating sector weakness.
– Fed's pause in rate hikes leads to market self-adjustment.
– Investors face uncertainty in semiconductor capital expenditures.
– Increased scrutiny on leveraged ETFs in South Korea.
semiconductor volatilityFed policy impactleveraged ETF scrutiny
▸ Full transcript
Bloomberg Deputy Seoul Bureau Chief He Su-li there with the latest in the volatility in the South Korea market, which a lawmaker there has called South Korea becoming essentially a casino. Of course, we talked about those market fluctuations; a big deal to do with the earning results from SK Hynix and Samsung. We're expecting Samsung today; I mean this talk too. It rallied 70% this year, but it came really down from that peak in June, and SK Hynix, despite the fact that we saw their six-fold surge in quarterly profit, we continue to see the downside pressure. And of course, in the overnight session, we also had a sell-off when it came to Wall Street; chip makers, a Philadelphia semiconductor index down more than 5%. AI, CapEx, and momentum trades in focus today. A semiconductor witness continued, despite the fact that the Fed actually paused. More now with our market reporter Anthony Stevens, and Anthony, I'm talking about the FOMC, a fifth-straight pause for what investors are considering potentially a more live meeting than others, and yet we saw the incredible downside pressure for chips. Yeah, it was a very interesting kind of tone to the meeting, right? Governor Walsh is basically asking the market to do the job of tightening for itself until he is very sure about what to do. It's a very data-dependent Fed, and he's asking the market to bear the burden of adjustment. Well, the market bore the burden of adjustment, and the first adjustment was a big move in the long end. The 30-year moved above 5.
Analysis

South Korea's market is experiencing significant volatility, driven by disappointing earnings from major players like Samsung and SK Hynix, despite a strong rally earlier this year. The Philadelphia semiconductor index has also seen a notable decline, reflecting broader concerns in the chip sector amidst a cautious Fed stance on monetary policy.

The market's reaction to the Fed's pause indicates a fragile balance, with investors now tasked with tightening conditions themselves. This dynamic suggests that the semiconductor sector may face continued pressure as the market adjusts to these new monetary conditions, potentially impacting future capital expenditures in AI and technology.

16:44
PDT
South Korean market down 40% from June peak.
Samsung ElectronicsSK HynixSouth KorealawmakersregulatorsSK
– Circuit breakers triggered for two consecutive days.
– Regulators targeting single-stock leveraged ETFs.
– Market heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix.
– Controversy over riskiness of approved financial products.
market volatilityregulatory risk
▸ Full transcript
So the immediate trigger was an extraordinary market sell-off. The cost fee has fallen roughly 40% from its June peak, and the market has hit circuit breakers for two consecutive days as of yesterday. Lawmakers and regulators increasingly concluded that newly introduced single-stock leveraged ETFs amplified volatility, particularly because they were heavily concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. The government now says these products contributed to excessive market swings and is responding with additional restrictions aimed at reducing speculative retail trading. Give us a little bit of history as to why these leveraged ETFs, particularly when we talk about the single stock ones, right, have become so controversial. Right. So the controversy isn't just about investors losing money. It's about whether regulators approved products that were inherently too risky for South Korea's market structure. Unlike more diversified markets, Korea's stock market is heavily dominated by a handful of companies, especially like I said, Samsung and SK Hynix. One of the opposition party lawmakers yesterday said that allowing two times leveraged products on individual stocks in such a concentrated market.
Analysis

The South Korean market experienced a significant sell-off, with costs dropping approximately 40% from their June peak, prompting circuit breakers to activate for two consecutive days. Lawmakers are now responding to the volatility attributed to newly introduced single-stock leveraged ETFs, particularly those concentrated in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, by implementing additional restrictions on speculative retail trading.

The controversy surrounding leveraged ETFs in South Korea highlights the risks posed by a market heavily dominated by a few companies. Smart money should note that regulatory actions could reshape trading dynamics and investor behavior in a concentrated market, potentially leading to increased volatility and a reassessment of risk in similar products globally.

16:40
PDT
NVIDIA's investments are crucial for U.S. AI competitiveness.
NVIDIASoftBankAdvanced TestSonyIvan FiennesTigris FinancialCIOAIIvan FiennFrom SonyNVDA
– SoftBank faces challenges due to declines in its investment arm.
– Advanced Test raised its forecast, indicating strong AI demand.
– The smartphone industry is currently sluggish.
– AI-related investments are becoming a focal point for market participants.
AI investment trendsTech sector performanceData center demand
▸ Full transcript
Look at the investment that he's made in NVIDIA and other data center infrastructure. So this is a very powerful competition that the U.S., I believe, will win. Ivan Fienn said, really good to have you with us, CIO, Tigris Financial. And take a look at some of the stocks that we're watching when Japan opened shortly. SoftBank will be in the spotlight, in part because of its exposure to the A.I. trade and also because its biggest investment arm holdings saw big declines in after-hours trading. The chip design company's results point to sluggishness in the smartphone industry, overshadowing a lucrative push into data center technology. Also watch chip testing equipment maker, Advanced Test, who saw its ADRs rise in the U.S. session after it raised its full-year forecast well above market estimates, the company touting continued strong demand from the AI boom. From Sony. So we'll be watching that very closely. The approach reportedly was made back in January, we haven't...
Analysis

NVIDIA and other data center infrastructure investments are seen as pivotal in the U.S. competition for AI dominance, with significant implications for companies like SoftBank and Advanced Test. The sluggishness in the smartphone industry is overshadowed by a lucrative push into data center technology, indicating a shift in market focus towards AI-related investments.

Investors should note the rising demand for AI-driven data center capacity, which may lead to increased competition among chip manufacturers. The recent performance of Advanced Test, which raised its full-year forecast, suggests that companies with strong AI demand are likely to outperform despite broader market challenges.

16:37
PDT
NVIDIA is on track with new processor developments.
NVIDIASamsungOpenAIAnthropicAINVDA
– Increased competition from Chinese AI models raises concerns but also boosts demand for data centers.
– Memory prices have surged but are expected to decline with increased volume.
– Samsung's upcoming earnings may impact market sentiment on memory pricing.
– Investors should monitor the balance between competition and demand in the AI space.
AI competitionsemiconductor pricingdata center demand
▸ Full transcript
Revenue growth of NVIDIA alone is impressive, and they're on track for their newest processor, the Blackwell, and eventually the Feynman. They continue to roll out new processors that are faster, more powerful, and use less power, while struggling to meet demand. When it comes to new Chinese AI models, the fact that they're more efficient raises concerns of increased competition, but the creation of more models and data will only increase the demand for data center capacity and processor capacity. Regarding the chip side of things, we continue to discuss the memory shortage and pricing issues. Broadly, I would like to see a pickup in volume, which should lead to a decrease in memory prices. We need to see prices come down because they have skyrocketed over the past year and a half or so.
Analysis

NVIDIA continues to roll out new processors that are faster, more powerful, and energy-efficient, which is crucial as demand for data center capacity rises. Despite concerns over increased competition from new Chinese AI models, the overall demand for data center and processor capacity is expected to grow, indicating a positive outlook for NVIDIA's revenue growth.

Smart money should note that the memory pricing issues are still a significant concern, with expectations for prices to come down as volume picks up. This could signal a potential shift in the Asian semiconductor market, particularly with Samsung's earnings report on the horizon, which may provide further insights into pricing trends and demand dynamics.

16:35
PDT
Meta's advertising revenue concerns impact AI investment confidence.
MetaMicrosoftBlackRockNew YorkAIMETAMSFT
– Microsoft's Azure cloud revenue growth signals strong AI potential.
– Financing fatigue is emerging in the AI debt space.
– New York's moratorium on data centers could hinder AI infrastructure expansion.
– Investor expectations for tech companies are at an all-time high.
AI investment outlookfinancing challengesdata center regulation
▸ Full transcript
Investments will actually pay off. Why do investors think that for Meta, that might not necessarily be the case as fast as it is for Microsoft? Well, because Meta, they depend on Meta's advertising revenue to invest in their AI infrastructure. And the quarter said the revenue was a little soft. But I mean, I think that you have to look beyond that and look for the opportunities that they are creating, that will eventually AI will drive increased advertising revenue. Of course, we're also watching the AI debt space, right? I mean, what does it tell you the fact that we are starting to see financing fatigue, perhaps even when it comes to Meta and their Texas data center, BlackRock selling that debt to finance it, and that just coming in at 1.6 times the deal size, which is the lowest cover for these major AI projects. Does this give you an indication that right now we're not in the competition for technology as we are for financing and who wins? Well, there's recently been a lot of controversy over data centers. As much as we need them, there's been pushback on where we can put them. New York just declared a moratorium on new data centers, which I think was really economically negative to the state. And then you have controversy that we may not need as much or as large data centers as predicted because the processing power will...
Analysis

Meta's reliance on advertising revenue for AI investment is causing investor skepticism, especially after a soft revenue quarter. In contrast, Microsoft is experiencing growth in Azure cloud revenue, indicating a more favorable outlook for its AI investments.

The financing fatigue observed in AI projects, particularly with Meta's Texas data center, suggests a shift in focus from technology competition to financing capabilities. The recent moratorium on new data centers in New York may further complicate the landscape for AI infrastructure development.

16:33
PDT
Microsoft's Azure revenue growth at 43% is the fastest in four years.
MicrosoftMetaIvan FiennesTigris FinancialAICIOMSFTMETA
– Meta's guidance disappointment reflects investor concerns about advertising growth.
– High expectations for tech stocks create buying opportunities on weakness.
– Investors are focusing on sustainable growth in AI investments.
– Capital spending for Microsoft is projected at $175 billion this year.
AI investment trendstech stock performancecapital expenditure
▸ Full transcript
For sentiment going forward, we had some more signals coming from big tech earnings. Microsoft, the results beating, Azure cloud revenue growing 43%, the fastest pace in four years. Capital spending likely landing at roughly $175 billion this year. Investors, though, punished Meta's guidance, disappointed by their concerns that advertising growth may not finance its AI spending. They narrowed their full-year capital expenditure guidance as well. Let's discuss everything to do with the AI ecosystem. Joining us now is Ivan Fiennes, CIO at Tigris Financial. Ivan, great to have you with us. Of course, a very key week when it comes to gauging the market sentiment around artificial intelligence and what all of these hyperscalers are doing. What's really at the core of this divide when it comes to Meta and Microsoft and the investor reaction? Well, I mean, everybody's looking for perfection because these stocks have had great run-ups and there's a lot of expectations, but I think that any weakness in these stocks is a buying opportunity. They continue to invest in AI.
Analysis

Microsoft's earnings beat expectations with Azure cloud revenue growing 43%, while Meta's guidance disappointed investors due to concerns over advertising growth and AI spending. This divergence highlights the high expectations placed on tech stocks, where any sign of weakness is viewed as a buying opportunity, particularly in the AI sector.

The market's reaction to Meta's guidance suggests that investors are increasingly discerning about capital allocation in AI, indicating a potential shift in sentiment towards companies that can demonstrate sustainable growth. The contrasting performances of Microsoft and Meta may signal a broader trend where only those firms delivering consistent results will thrive in the current environment.

16:31
PDT
Market reacted positively to dovish Fed signals.
Federal ReserveWallerFOMCBloomberg Real YieldPRIVATEFEDFUNDS
– Increased speculation on September rate hikes.
– Fed's credibility is now under scrutiny.
– Dissent within FOMC may impact future decisions.
– Long bond yields are reacting negatively to Fed's stance.
Fed policyinterest ratesmarket credibility
▸ Full transcript
Get your fixed income fix; watch Bloomberg Real Yield every Thursday at 12 p.m. Eastern right here on Bloomberg. Context changes everything. Well, I think Waller was a little bit more dovish than people expected, which is why you're seeing a rally on the two-year, and the long bond doesn't like it. The long bond doesn't like that they're not fighting inflation. I'm going to be looking for, you know, eventually the next speech by Waller because that's going to give us a sense of what the core of the committee actually thinks. I also think many people on the board are leaning towards a rate hike as well. We've already gotten a lot of indication of that. So I do think we will get rate hikes in September. I actually think today would have been better. The market reaction speaks very clearly that now we need to talk about the credibility of the committee because it cannot only be talk; they will eventually have to follow through. That's why the probability, given this market reaction now, has gone up quite significantly that they will have to move at the next meeting. Some of our guests are reacting to the Fed's decision to hold rates steady. So there is this question right here as to whether this impacts the credibility of the Fed, whether there's a sense of inertia. What the meaningful implications are, given the level of dissent in this FOMC meeting, does that really get baked into expectations for the next meeting as well? And if so, the question is why didn't they just move at this meeting?
Analysis

The market reacted positively to a more dovish stance from the Fed, particularly impacting the two-year bond yields, while the long bond showed discontent with the Fed's approach to inflation. There is increasing speculation about potential rate hikes in September, as the credibility of the Fed is now under scrutiny following their decision to hold rates steady despite dissent within the committee.

Smart money should note that the market's reaction indicates a heightened probability of a rate hike in the next meeting, reflecting concerns over the Fed's credibility and the potential inertia in their decision-making process. The dissent within the FOMC may influence expectations for future meetings, suggesting that the Fed may need to act decisively to maintain its credibility.

16:24
PDT
Fed's treatment of supply shocks could lead to persistent inflation.
FedIranBrown UniversitySevnim Kalemni OzkanBloombergGovernor WarshFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– Current inflation rates are influenced by past supply chain issues.
– Geopolitical tensions, like the Iran situation, add to inflationary pressures.
– Market participants are concerned about the Fed's communication strategy.
– Long-term yields are reacting to inflation concerns.
inflation riskFed policygeopolitical tensions
▸ Full transcript
Under the assumption that the Fed looks through inflation, I do agree with Governor Warsh that inflation is a choice, and the Fed is going to determine if these supply shocks are going to be inflationary or not in the end. Unfortunately, if the Fed does look through and treats these as level shocks, meaning a one-time increase in the price level, this applies to both tariffs and hormones, then they are going to create persistent inflation even if they disappear. Even if we saw the entire Iran issue resolved by tomorrow, there would still be persistent inflation coming from that, resulting in permanently higher inflation if the Fed looks through, thinking this is just a one-off shock. The current over 4% headline inflation and over 3% core inflation has a lot to do with the persistence of that inflation, which is significantly influenced by the shocks from last year. Sevnim, always great to chat with you. Sevnim Kalemni Ozkan, who is a professor of international economics at Brown University. Much more will come here on the Asia trade. This is Bloomberg.
Analysis

The Fed's approach to inflation is under scrutiny, with concerns that viewing supply shocks as one-off events could lead to persistent inflation. Current inflation rates are significantly influenced by last year's supply chain disruptions and tariffs, indicating a deeper issue than transient shocks.

Smart money should note that if the Fed continues to treat these shocks lightly, it risks entrenching higher inflation expectations, which could have lasting effects on monetary policy and market dynamics. The interplay between geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures suggests a complex landscape for investors navigating fixed income and equities.

16:22
PDT
Renewed US airstrikes against Iran are escalating geopolitical tensions.
IranPresident TrumpFederal ReserveStrait of HormuzUSMiddle EastFEDFUNDS
– The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global trade.
– The Federal Reserve is limiting communication and dropping forward guidance.
– Inflation risks are deemed persistent rather than transitory.
– Market participants are concerned about the implications of tariffs and supply shocks.
geopolitical riskinflation persistenceFed policy communication
▸ Full transcript
They do admit inflation is a problem; when are they going to hike? Or if they are not going to hike, how are they going to deal with this problem? So the market is trying to parse this out. Of course, the first reaction should have been long-term yields, and that's what happened. So that's not surprising. But I think we really have to watch what is going to happen in the next few days in terms of how the market really tries to parse this new Fed information coming from this new Fed that really limits communication and also drops forward guidance. As we speak, the backdrop is that even at the moment, we're hearing reports of renewed US airstrikes against Iran, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, and other key trading paths remain contentious as well across the Middle East. President Trump is trying to rebuild his tariff war as well. So if you take a look at those factors, I guess, what does your research tell us about the enduring stickiness of this type of inflation risk? Indeed, this type of inflation is persistent. And that's the overarching conclusion and headline result coming from our research, because our research is based on global networks. We try to understand the propagation of supply shocks such as tariffs, such as Hormuz closure, such as pandemics, such as the energy shock.
Analysis

The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly with renewed US airstrikes against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, are contributing to persistent inflation risks. Market participants are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's communication strategy as it shifts away from forward guidance, raising questions about future interest rate hikes.

Smart money should note that the inflation being observed is not merely transitory but rather persistent, driven by complex global supply chain dynamics. The interplay of geopolitical tensions and economic policy will likely keep inflation elevated, impacting long-term yields and market sentiment.

16:20
PDT
Markets are concerned about enduring inflation despite Fed's view on temporary supply shocks.
Fedmarketsinflation30-year yieldsThe FedFEDFUNDS
– Disagreement within the Fed and between the Fed and markets highlights uncertainty in inflation models.
– 30-year yields reflect market anxiety regarding inflation persistence.
– Timing of supply shock resolution remains a critical point of contention.
– Investors may be adjusting strategies in response to inflation concerns.
inflation uncertaintyFed policy divergence
▸ Full transcript
There is more of a disagreement between the markets and the Fed and also within the Fed, which brings us back to this good family fight. One important point here though, that is put and framed by markets and also within today's development as a disagreement between the hulks and those. I wouldn't frame it like that because I think that framing tells you inflation is elevated due to supply shocks, but this is one-off. So they will go away on their own, so the Fed can look through. So all we are disagreeing about is the timing, about when they are going to disappear and what their impact is going to be. I think this is not the right framing. I think the right framing is the real disagreement is about the model and how shocks propagate. And that is the big unknown here. And you can see that worry in 30-year yields, right, in terms of where they're sitting at. Does that tell you how concerned markets are, particularly at the longer end there, worried about enduring inflation? Yes. Markets are clearly concerned about inflation. The Fed is concerned too; it's just that markets are trying to make sense of this new fact, right? So we heard.
Analysis

There is a growing disagreement between the markets and the Fed regarding inflation, particularly concerning the timing and impact of supply shocks. This divergence reflects a deeper uncertainty about how inflationary pressures will evolve, as evidenced by the concern seen in 30-year yields.

Smart money should note that while the Fed may believe inflation is temporary, market signals indicate a persistent worry about enduring inflation. This suggests that investors are recalibrating their expectations and may be positioning for a longer-term inflation scenario.

16:18
PDT
Rising oil prices are causing bond yields to increase globally.
U.S.IranTrumpBenjamin NetanyahuBloombergCAPEXEMSBloomberg TradeKevin WalshPRIVATE
– Geopolitical tensions, especially with Iran, are contributing to market volatility.
– Equity markets may experience sudden drops due to bond market influences.
– Public sentiment is increasingly opposed to military actions in Iran.
– CAPEX increases are being made in anticipation of future growth despite uncertain supply-side effects.
geopolitical riskinflation concerns
▸ Full transcript
The trade that will make your number. And with next generation speed, automation, and integration, this is the new fixed income EMS that will make sure you win it. Expect more from your execution management system. Bloomberg Trade EMS. In for decades at the intersection between markets, economics, and geopolitics, a forum for sophisticated conversation, this is Bloomberg surveillance. Let me reiterate, there is no soft inflation target. There is no soft implicit target, not on this committee's watch. CAPEX is preparing the ground for future growth. Nonetheless, the precise timing and magnitude of effects on the supply side remain hard to predict. I asked for a good family fight and I got one. I heard a lot of commonality on the questions. Were there different leans on the answers? You bet there was. In the high mountain air in Jackson, Wyoming, I'd like to also frame the big questions. There is a tendency, especially with the proliferation of meetings and press conferences, to get caught up in the myopic. Had your reserve chairman Kevin Walsh there speaking after policymakers held right saddy, but of course referring to those dissenting votes.
Analysis

The market is reacting negatively to the prospect of sustained high oil prices, with rising bond yields indicating a defensive stance against inflation. This situation is exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, particularly involving the U.S. and Iran, which could lead to further volatility in equity markets as fixed income influences trading behavior.

Investors should note the potential for a negative feedback loop where rising yields in the bond market could trigger sudden drops in equities. The lack of a clear resolution in geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, adds uncertainty to market conditions, suggesting that traders should brace for increased volatility ahead.

16:16
PDT
Meta continues to lose money on metaverse investments, with projected losses of $20 billion.
MetaIranU.S.TrumpFox NewsSaudi ArabiaJordanBenjamin NetanyahuNihauFederal Reserve
– Oil prices have spiked above $91 a barrel amid escalating U.S.-Iran tensions.
– Bond yields are rising globally as markets react defensively to inflation concerns.
– Public sentiment is increasingly opposed to U.S. military actions in Iran.
– Geopolitical instability is likely to drive volatility in both equity and fixed income markets.
geopolitical riskenergy pricesbond market dynamicsequity market volatility
▸ Full transcript
Das ist Brunberg. Active ETFs.
Analysis

Meta's lack of a clear AI monetization strategy and ongoing losses in the metaverse are contributing to market uncertainty, reflected in negative investor reactions. The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, are exacerbating market volatility, with oil prices spiking and bond yields rising as investors brace for potential conflict escalation.

Smart money should note that the bond market's influence on equities is growing, leading to increased volatility in stock prices. The rising oil prices and geopolitical instability could create a negative feedback loop affecting both energy and equity markets, suggesting a cautious approach to investments in these sectors.

16:14
PDT
Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions complicate Trump's foreign policy.
TrumpIranBenjamin NetanyahuU.S.Strait of HormuzPresident TrumpWhite HouseCL=F
– Iran retains significant leverage over global oil markets.
– Public opposition to military action against Iran is growing.
– Market volatility is likely as geopolitical risks increase.
– Investors should monitor oil price movements closely.
geopolitical riskoil market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
If we have his presumption of hostilities, how much harder is that off-ramp for President Trump? It has always seemed throughout the course of even the last round of negotiations that Tehran has been quite willing to stay patient given that it retains that leverage when it comes to the global oil market. Yes, this is, you know, Iran has showed incredible resilience both in being willing to continue fighting as well as continuing to have control over the Strait of Hormuz and be able to put that pressure on the global economy. We've seen here, if the U.S. is indeed striking back, that this is looking like we are headed down a road of attacks continuing to build up here rather than the resolution towards peace, making this very, very difficult for Trump to get a handle on this. We've reported that Trump is growing increasingly frustrated with this war, a war that he started at the urging of Benjamin Netanyahu. But this is now where we're seeing a lot of this breakdown. Netanyahu was at the White House just earlier this week and had a conversation with Trump. It was after that meeting that we saw some of these hostilities pick up. This is going to be a very, very difficult situation for Trump to navigate here because there's just no clear off-road.
Analysis

The ongoing hostilities between the U.S. and Iran are escalating, complicating President Trump's ability to navigate the situation as tensions rise and attacks continue. Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and its resilience in the conflict are exerting pressure on the global oil market, indicating a challenging path ahead for U.S. foreign policy.

Smart money should note that the lack of a clear off-ramp for Trump amidst rising public opposition to military action could lead to increased volatility in oil prices and broader market instability. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, which may impact investor sentiment and asset allocation strategies.

16:12
PDT
60% of Americans oppose increased attacks on Iran.
TrumpIranSaudi ArabiaU.S.AlphabetMicrosoftMetaFOMCBloombergCOSPRed SeaRepublican PartyGOOGL
– Rising bond yields signal market skepticism about Fed policy.
– Tech earnings reactions indicate uncertainty in growth outlook.
– Geopolitical tensions could impact energy prices and market stability.
– Investors should brace for volatility in equity markets.
geopolitical riskmarket volatilitytech earningspublic sentiment
▸ Full transcript
If this is now extending into the Red Sea, extending into Saudi Arabia and other sides, this just means it becomes a multi-headed, multi-pronged monster that the U.S. is going to have to wrangle in order to stop fighting in all of these different places. This, of course, is what Trump is staring down the barrel of the midterms. And his Republican Party is set to lose seats in Congress. They have less than 100 days until those elections. A new poll out today just showed that 60 percent of Americans are opposed to increasing attacks on Iran, while only 34% supported. That's the biggest ratio we've seen of opposition towards this conflict so far, really suggesting that Americans are growing tired of this war when there's really no solution on how to end it. And Mandib, of course, we're headed towards Asia Open right now and we're watching what the implications will be from those big tech earnings. What will you be watching out for in the supply chain, especially when we hear from these hyperscalers? We're of course not done yet this week. That perspective, you know, there was this hope that because of the component price increases, everyone has to raise capex, which Alphabet did last week.
Analysis

The geopolitical tensions involving the U.S. and Iran are escalating, with a significant portion of the American public opposing increased military action. This growing discontent could impact U.S. foreign policy and market sentiment as the midterms approach, with Republicans facing potential losses in Congress.

Investors should note the rising bond yields and falling dollar, indicating skepticism about the Fed's control over inflation. The market's reaction to tech earnings, particularly from hyperscalers, suggests a cautious outlook on growth and capital expenditures amid ongoing supply chain challenges.

16:09
PDT
Oil prices are expected to remain elevated, impacting inflation expectations.
U.S.IranFederal ReserveTreasuryequity marketsbond marketsenergy marketsAIFEDFUNDSDXYCL=F
– Rising bond yields are creating a defensive market sentiment.
– Tensions between the U.S. and Iran are contributing to energy supply concerns.
– Equity markets may experience increased volatility due to bond market dynamics.
– Investors should prepare for sudden market jolts.
oil price volatilitybond market dynamicsgeopolitical riskinflation concerns
▸ Full transcript
Well, you can see that the market has decided that it doesn't like the idea that oil prices might stay in the $90 to $100 range for an extended period. That's why you've got bond yields around the world rising. And that was even before we had the Fed meeting yesterday. The bond market was already getting very defensive about the idea of an extended upward push on inflation. So, if we have no end in sight to what's going on between the U.S. and Iran, there's going to be no relief at all from the energy markets. We're also talking about shortages in some of the products which will keep energy supplies tight, especially at the retail end. Investors, public are not going to like that sort of thing. That's going to be a negative feedback loop into bond markets around the world, not just in Treasury as a world. Traders can see that very clearly. And once you get a sustained period of people pushing yields higher in those markets, it will feed back into equities as well. We're going to get more days when you see sudden drops in equity markets as you saw overnight in the U.S. That's going to feed through to Asia and Europe. We're going to have to brace ourselves for these sudden jolts in markets and it will be the fixed income market that will be driving it. And that's a very uncomfortable situation. Equity markets just like to focus on earnings and where the next theme is going to come from in terms of whether it's AI or something else, but when you got the bond market driving the equity market, that is something that nobody likes; it's a negative situation all around and if the dollar.
Analysis

The market is reacting negatively to the prospect of sustained oil prices in the $90 to $100 range, leading to rising bond yields globally. This situation is exacerbated by ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which are expected to keep energy supplies tight and negatively impact equity markets as bond yields rise.

Smart money should note that the bond market's influence on equities is becoming increasingly pronounced, creating a feedback loop that could lead to sudden drops in stock prices. The current environment suggests that investors should brace for volatility as fixed income markets dictate equity performance, rather than earnings or growth themes.

16:07
PDT
Meta faces challenges in monetizing AI investments.
MetaIranU.S.TrumpJordanSaudi ArabiaoilWashingtonAIFox NewsCL=FMETA
– Continued losses in the metaverse raise investor concerns.
– Geopolitical tensions are escalating with potential U.S. military action against Iran.
– Oil prices have spiked above $91 a barrel.
– Conflicting signals from U.S. leadership may increase market volatility.
geopolitical risktech sector challenges
▸ Full transcript
You know the models that are at the frontier, and Meta seems to lack a strategy in terms of how to monetize its investments in AI infrastructure, so there's more uncertainty, and that's why you see that negative reaction. On top of that, they continue to lose money on the metaverse; I mean, with all the investments, the fact that they will be losing another $20 billion on metaverse reality labs investments is surprising to me that they are not using that as an offset. Laura, when it comes to the geopolitical situation, it feels like we're at a bit of a crossroads, right? Anything could potentially happen. What's the rhetoric from Washington sounding like in terms of what steps come next? Yeah, the music from Washington is really quite dark and gloomy. Trump told Fox News earlier today that he would be hitting Iran really hard and that it was, quote, the U.S. has turned to go ahead and hit them after some surprise strikes yesterday from Iran to some U.S. bases in Jordan, as well as some sites in Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally. You know, this, of course, comes a day before he said that he saw the possibility of a deal coming together and didn't necessarily want to escalate the war. So we're getting some conflicting signs from the president here, but we saw, with oil markets, oil spiking back up to above $91 a barrel.
Analysis

Meta's ongoing struggles with monetizing its AI investments and continued losses in its metaverse division are causing investor concern, leading to a negative market reaction. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions are escalating as conflicting signals emerge from Washington regarding U.S. military action against Iran, contributing to rising oil prices above $91 a barrel.

Smart money should note that Meta's significant losses in the metaverse, projected at $20 billion, are not being leveraged as offsets, indicating a lack of strategic direction. Additionally, the dark rhetoric from Washington could lead to further volatility in oil markets, impacting broader market sentiment.

16:05
PDT
Rising yields and falling dollar indicate market skepticism.
MicrosoftMetaTreasuryCOSPAsiaMiddle EastAIROIDXYMSFTMETA
– Hyperscalers are raising significant funds, impacting the bond market.
– Tech earnings reactions show a focus on AI ROI.
– Market volatility expected in Asia due to reopening measures.
– Investors should reassess growth expectations in tech.
market volatilitybond market dysfunctiontech earningsAI investment
▸ Full transcript
Yields rising and the dollar falling at the same time. That's a very quick thumbs down from the market to say we don't think much of your policy outlook. We don't think you have any control over inflation, and we're going to do the job for you. So that is something which is very quickly going to translate across the G10, across Asia. That's a cross-asset negative for markets to digest, and they won't be very happy to hear that. Particularly at the same time as you've got these hyperscalers raising huge amounts of money, especially in the long end of the Treasury curve, that will add weight to the bond market as well. When the bond market gets dysfunctional, that is not good across the asset class. And of course, even before we get to that, we've got the reopening of the COSP today. How far down would it go? How volatile? How will people respond to these new measures on ETFs as well? There is going to be another very choppy, erratic trading day going on in Asia. And we may even get some more headlines out of the Middle East. It's yet another day when people will be on the edge of their seat throughout the trading session. So let's get to the tech earnings first then, Mandi, because we are now seeing this sort of diverging reaction to the results of big hyperscalers like Microsoft and Meta and how they're taking their AI capex at this point. What stood out to you? Yeah, I think the market is measuring both Meta and Microsoft in terms of the ROI.
Analysis

Yields are rising while the dollar is falling, signaling market skepticism towards the policy outlook and inflation control. This situation is compounded by significant fundraising by hyperscalers in the long end of the Treasury curve, which may further destabilize the bond market.

The market's reaction to tech earnings from major players like Microsoft and Meta indicates a focus on return on investment from AI capital expenditures. This divergence in performance highlights the need for investors to reassess their expectations regarding growth and profitability in the tech sector amidst broader market volatility.

16:02
PDT
Korean stocks down 16% in two days.
Korean stocksNasdaq 100FOMCU.S.IranBloombergFetcher WarshNLIFEThe NasdaqBloomberg Intelligence Global HeadTechnology ResearchMandy SinghFEDFUNDSCL=FPRIVATE
– Nasdaq 100 declines over 2%.
– FOMC decision impacts market sentiment.
– Inflation remains above the Fed's target.
– Oil prices rise amid geopolitical tensions.
market volatilityFed policygeopolitical tensions
▸ Full transcript
We have seen that Korean stocks plunged 16% over two days, largely driven by an outburst of retail selling, with stocks cratering on Wednesday. The Nasdaq 100 is down by over 2%, indicating heavy pressure on the tech space. Chicago indicate futures are looking like a rare upside in the day's session. We are, of course, focusing on how the impact of the FOMC decision is going to play through as well. Take a listen to what we heard from Fetcher Warsh, particularly regarding his concerns about inertia at the central bank. Even with recent shocks, the trends are positive and reveal solid growth. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Inflation remains elevated relative to the committee's 2% goal. The committee remains resolute. There is no shortage of market catalysts today as investors digest the Fed's latest decision and a fresh wave of tech earnings, with oil also jumping as the U.S. and Iran resume hostilities. Let's get to our team. Bloomberg's NLIFE strategy smart Cranfield is in Singapore. Bloomberg Intelligence Global Head of Technology Research, Mandy Singh, joins us from New York, and politics editor Laura Davison is with us from Washington.
Analysis

Korean stocks have plunged 16% over two days, primarily due to a surge in retail selling, with the Nasdaq 100 also down over 2%. The FOMC's recent decision is under scrutiny as inflation remains elevated, and job gains continue to align with workforce growth, indicating a complex economic landscape.

Smart money should note the potential for continued volatility in tech stocks as the market reacts to both the Fed's stance and geopolitical tensions, particularly with oil prices rising amid U.S.-Iran hostilities. The mixed signals from the labor market and inflation metrics suggest that investors need to be cautious about the sustainability of growth in the current environment.

15:58
PDT
Chipotle is entering the Mexican market with a locally sourced strategy.
Chipotle Mexican GrillMexicoWestern EuropePRIVATE
– The menu will remain consistent with offerings in Western Europe.
– Local sourcing may reduce supply chain risks.
– Expansion into Mexico is a key milestone for Chipotle's global strategy.
– Adapting to local culinary traditions could enhance customer loyalty.
global expansionlocal sourcingsupply chain management
▸ Full transcript
In case you missed it, on the close. You're entering into Mexico, your first store there, a big one out there in the Monterey region. Why do you think you can make that work? We believe Mexico is a really important milestone for our great brand as we continue to lean into our global strategy. It's an important country for us. We recognize and admire the culinary heritage. There's a little bit of irony when it comes to the fact that Chipotle Mexican Grill is opening up, expanding into Mexico. And with that in mind, what changes do you have planned for Mexico? We'll locally source as much of the product we bring over the border today as it relates to avocados and tomatoes and peppers, but it'll be the same menu we've launched in Western Europe, the same menu we launched in the...
Analysis

Chipotle Mexican Grill is expanding into Mexico, marking a significant milestone in its global strategy. The company plans to locally source ingredients like avocados, tomatoes, and peppers while maintaining the same menu as in Western Europe.

The move into Mexico highlights Chipotle's commitment to adapting to local culinary traditions, which could enhance brand loyalty and customer engagement. This strategy may also mitigate supply chain risks associated with cross-border sourcing, positioning Chipotle favorably in a competitive market.

15:54
PDT
Mini grids serve smaller areas, providing electricity to remote communities.
Husk PowerWorld BankNigeriaUSThis NigerianIn AfricaDXY
– Husk Power is a key player in Nigeria's solar mini grid installations.
– Mission 300 aims to invest billions in Africa's electrification.
– Historical parallels exist between U.S. rural electrification and current African initiatives.
– Local businesses benefit from improved electricity access.
renewable energyinfrastructure investmentemerging markets
▸ Full transcript
They are called mini grids because they are much smaller than what typical grids are. Where a traditional grid can cover thousands of square miles, a mini grid typically serves a much smaller area, like a small island or a village. This Nigerian village is beyond the reach of the main grid, creating an opportunity for private companies to bring electricity piecemeal. Averagely, mini grids are about 400 community members. Husk Power has installed dozens of solar mini grids across Nigeria. Our mini grids run for 24 hours. Us hoads use our electricity to power up their appliances like fans and TVs. Children cannot come back home and do their homework at night. Electricity helps local businesses too by powering all manner of machines that help residents earn more income, like this rice milling machine. All right, it might be a far cry from a multi-billion dollar data center, but every grid has to start somewhere. In the US in the 1930s, the government spent billions electrifying rural areas, extending the grid across the continent and helping the US to become the richest country on earth. In Africa, a similar project is starting, a program called Mission 300, backed by the World Bank, aims to invest billions of dollars.
Analysis

Mini grids are emerging as a solution for electricity access in remote areas, with companies like Husk Power installing solar mini grids in Nigeria to serve communities beyond the main grid's reach. This initiative mirrors historical efforts in the U.S. during the 1930s, highlighting the potential for similar investments in Africa through programs like Mission 300 backed by the World Bank.

The shift towards mini grids represents a significant opportunity for private companies to tap into underserved markets, potentially transforming local economies. Investors should note that as demand for reliable electricity grows, the mini grid sector could attract substantial funding and support, similar to past electrification efforts in developed nations.

15:52
PDT
Spain's blackout was linked to insufficient grid inertia due to offline solar plants.
SpainStarcraftEuropean power companysolar plantsparliamentGreat Vines
– Synchronous compensators could provide necessary inertia without fossil fuels.
– Regulatory changes in Spain may facilitate the adoption of stabilizing technologies.
– Investment in grid stability technologies is likely to increase.
– The transition to renewables requires careful management of grid dynamics.
renewable energy integrationgrid stabilityenergy infrastructure
▸ Full transcript
Directly into electricity, meaning no spinning generator and no inertia. In the past five years, Spain has tripled the amount of solar it has added to the grid. When a couple of solar plants suddenly went offline, there wasn't enough inertia to restore the balance and... lights out. As we get more renewables on the grid, we are going to need inertia. We at Starcraft were very much thinking about this problem, which brings us back to this silly mush cogitator. Synchronous compensator. Sorry, a synchronous compensator. It's just like a spinning device you'd find in a coal or gas plant, but without the coal or gas. Add enough of these, and your grid will have all the inertia it needs, even with no fossil fuel power. It's providing inertia to the grid, enabling the grid to run with more renewables. While we're here on the Great Vines, Spain is possibly going to do similar things. Almost immediately after the blackout happened, the parliament passed regulations that would allow for more types of devices like synchronous compensators to participate in stabilizing the grid. Making the necessary upgrades won't be cheap for Spain. But they'll probably result in more reliable and abundant electricity, exactly what rich countries need to keep up with rising demand.
Analysis

Spain's recent blackout highlighted the critical need for grid stability as the country integrates more renewable energy sources. The failure of solar plants to provide necessary inertia during the outage underscores the importance of synchronous compensators to maintain balance in a renewable-heavy grid.

Smart money should note that Spain's parliament is moving quickly to implement regulations for synchronous compensators, indicating a shift towards more reliable energy infrastructure. This could lead to increased investment opportunities in technologies that enhance grid stability and support the transition to renewables.

15:48
PDT
Spain's blackout cost 400 million euros in economic losses.
La CachaSpainStatkraftsolar power
– Solar power's rapid growth is straining grid stability.
– Renewables are not to blame; they performed as expected.
– The incident signals potential vulnerabilities in energy infrastructure.
– Investors should monitor the impact of renewable integration on grid reliability.
grid stabilityrenewable energy integration
▸ Full transcript
Shops and supermarkets couldn't operate because payment systems were down. Spain's largest bank, La Cacha, calculated that 400 million euros were wiped out of the Spanish economy. For most, life without electricity was inconvenient. Within about 18 hours, the power was back. But a blackout of this scale usually points to a larger problem, and this one has raised concerns about the very structure of the modern grid. For now, what we know is that there was instability coming from some solar farms in southern Spain. Spain has added a lot of solar power in recent years because solar has a lot of advantages for a grid. It's clean, cheap, and versatile, and as a result, it's growing exponentially, helping grids to keep up with rising power demand. But solar does seem to have played some role in the Spanish blackout. Not the sheep, though; the sheep are innocent. A lot of people blamed renewables for the Spanish situation, but renewables did exactly what they were told to do, exactly what it said on the tin. When you look back, it was a perfectly foreseeable car crash.
Analysis

Spain's recent blackout resulted in an estimated 400 million euros lost, raising concerns about the stability of the modern power grid. The incident highlights the challenges posed by the rapid integration of solar power, which, while beneficial, may have contributed to the grid's instability during peak demand.

15:46
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CFOs must balance operational focus with market awareness.
BloombergMichael McKeeWashingtonIGVCFOWall StreetBloomberg SurveillanceMichael McPRIVATEIGV
– Current market volatility presents both risks and opportunities.
– The potential for reflation could impact investment strategies.
– Understanding policy impacts on Wall Street is crucial.
– Volatility metrics may indicate a market bottom.
market volatilityCFO strategyreflation potential
▸ Full transcript
With the senior management team and the board having your head down is one thing as a finance person, but keeping your ears open is super important as well. I think that all of that is what kind of builds out being a successful CFO. What's chief future officer only on Bloomberg? In case you missed it on Bloomberg brief, you have semi-zicking in one corner, but another, you know, the IGV zagging in the other corner. So you've had this cancellation broadly on the index volatility side, but we've continued to say, you know, you have a guy who's limboing and the limbo stick is 12 inches off the ground. How much further lower can we go for a lot of these metrics like correlation before we see a reflation? Don't miss Bloomberg brief live every weekday. At a time when policy in Washington is driving Wall Street, we draw a distinction between the rhetoric and the action, bringing you market-moving guests and original reporting. This is Bloomberg Surveillance, bringing you the most important news and financial information whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Michael McKee on the Mexican border, and this is Bloomberg. I was like any day, opening the store a little bit, making the box, everything with normality, and suddenly at one point it went all night.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the importance of staying informed as a CFO amidst market volatility, emphasizing the need for strategic foresight in financial leadership. Additionally, the commentary on the current market conditions suggests that while there is significant index volatility, the potential for a reflationary environment remains a key consideration for investors.

15:44
PDT
Veer is targeting the electric utility market with innovative superconducting cables.
VeerMicrosoftMSFT
– The company has significant backing from major investors like Microsoft.
– Utilities' conservative nature may slow adoption of new technologies.
– Superconducting cables could enhance power density and efficiency in energy transmission.
– The need for liquid nitrogen and vacuum tubes may increase costs.
energy infrastructuretechnology adoptionelectric utilities
▸ Full transcript
The real spinning and spinning so fast. A lot of the manual things we're doing right now are going to be automated, and yeah, it will be a much faster process. Do you think about a future of these cables stretching across America, stretching across the world? I hope so, I really hope so. Veer has raised a little over $100 million so far from investors, including Microsoft, and it says it aims to have its first cables on the grid within a couple of years. But none of this is easy or cheap. The system needs vacuum tubes and a continuous supply of liquid nitrogen, which could add a price premium over conventional cables. And there's another issue. Veer's potential customers, electric utilities, aren't known for their high-tech risk-taking. It just can't be denied that utilities are conservative businesses. When you're worried about providing power 100% of the time, you're going to be very cautious about trying something new. I don't know if we'll ever see superconductors be the only choice in this field, but I expect that the power density that they can achieve will allow them to increasingly dominate conversations around future transmission systems. So will better cables moving more energy be enough to power the future? Well, even with better hardware, we still have to keep the grids.
Analysis

Veer has raised over $100 million from investors, including Microsoft, and aims to deploy its superconducting cables on the grid within a couple of years. However, the high-tech nature of these cables poses challenges, as electric utilities are typically conservative and risk-averse when it comes to new technologies.

15:41
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Superconducting cables can carry more power with less infrastructure.
VierChinaGEEV
– Maintaining low temperatures is crucial for superconducting cable functionality.
– Increased electricity demand from AI and EVs drives innovation in power transmission.
– Potential reduction in infrastructure costs with superconducting technology.
– Companies in cooling technology may benefit from this advancement.
energy infrastructuresuperconducting technologyelectricity demand
▸ Full transcript
Energy gets lost along the way. Plastic has a lot of resistance, making it a bad conductor. That's why it's used for insulation. Copper and aluminum have low resistance, making them pretty good conductors. So we use them for most power cables today. Vier's cables, on the other hand, are made of this stuff. So I'm holding here a sample of the superconducting material. It's a really special class of materials that in certain operating conditions, no longer have resistance. So when you can operate a material that doesn't have resistance, we can carry a lot more power in a very, very compact space. Cables that can carry more power could be a big upgrade for the grid, helping move a lot of electricity to the data centers, homes, and EV chargers that need it. They could also mean we don't have to build as much new infrastructure, since one superconducting cable carries much power as several conventional cables. But first, Vier needs to figure some things out, like how to keep its cables extremely cold. Yeah, so the cable, we have it in this test bed full of liquid nitrogen. The liquid nitrogen is like 77 Kelvin, which is very cold. In fact, it's somewhere between the temperature of space and the dark side of the moon. The cable's got to be that cold to get into its superconducting state.
Analysis

The development of superconducting cables could significantly enhance the efficiency of power transmission, allowing for greater electricity flow in a compact form. This innovation may reduce the need for extensive new infrastructure, as a single superconducting cable can carry the power of multiple conventional cables.

Smart money should note that the successful implementation of these cables hinges on maintaining extremely low temperatures, which presents both a technical challenge and an opportunity for companies specializing in cooling technologies. As demand for electricity surges, particularly from data centers and electric vehicles, advancements in superconducting materials could position early adopters favorably in the evolving energy landscape.

15:38
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China's power generation has increased significantly, supporting ongoing economic growth.
ChinaU.S.BloombergEd LudlowSan FranciscoBloomberg TechBloomberg TelevisionIn ChinaGOOGLUSDCNHPRIVATE
– The U.S. has seen little to no growth in power generation, indicating potential infrastructure challenges.
– Emerging technologies like AI and EVs will drive future electricity demand.
– Investment in energy infrastructure is crucial for economic competitiveness.
– The disparity in energy infrastructure development between China and the U.S. could impact global market dynamics.
energy infrastructureeconomic growthAI demandglobal competitiveness
▸ Full transcript
has shifted from science fiction to reshaping human capability. We need someone who left Google's DeepMind to bridge that gap between digital brains and automation. A lot of people sit in the office with their own computers. Is that really the natural form for humans to work? Politics reshaping global tech markets. I'm Ed Ludlow live in San Francisco and this is Bloomberg Tech, weekday only on Bloomberg Television. China's been building its grid in real time. It's basically gone non-stop since the 1990s. So they still have a heavily employed skilled labor pool that they can pull from, and they have a supply chain that's mature and ready to grow as the needs are growing. All that's been happening because it's had to. China does a lot of the manufacturing that Western countries mostly stopped doing, and the grid has had to keep up. In China, you still have pretty rapid economic growth. A bad year here is 5% growth, which is much higher than you normally see in developed economies like the U.S. and Europe. So whereas the U.S. has barely seen an uptick in power generation, in China, power generation has gone up seven times since 2000.
Analysis

China's rapid power generation growth, increasing sevenfold since 2000, contrasts sharply with stagnation in the U.S. This divergence highlights the critical role of infrastructure in sustaining economic expansion, particularly in emerging markets.

Smart money should note that China's ability to scale its grid in tandem with manufacturing growth presents a significant competitive advantage. As AI and electric vehicle sectors expand, the demand for energy will surge, necessitating robust infrastructure investments, particularly in regions lagging behind.

15:36
PDT
Electricity demand is rising again after two decades of stagnation.
ChinaGEAir New ZealandGDPAICL=F
– Transition to electric vehicles and AI is driving increased energy consumption.
– AI could boost global GDP by 15% but will require massive energy resources.
– Investment in grid infrastructure is essential to meet future energy needs.
– Countries with advanced grid systems may have competitive advantages.
energy transitionAI growthinfrastructure investment
▸ Full transcript
At the same time, rich countries started doing less manufacturing and more office work, which used less energy. By the early 2000s, we really began to see some flattening of electric growth. In fact, in Western economies, for the last two decades, electricity demand was either flat or declining. So the grid, which had been growing non-stop for 100 years, suddenly didn't have to grow anymore. And that was kind of nice while it lasted. GDP kept growing while we used the same amount of electricity. But lately, energy demand isn't looking so flat anymore. Now we're actually beginning to see a growth in demand and consumption again. It really is a three-part contributor. It's moving from gasoline cars to electric cars, moving from oil furnaces and gas boilers to heat pumps, and of course the growth of artificial intelligence, which is powered by data centers that consume a lot of electricity. Those industries could add a lot of economic growth, but they absolutely guzzle electricity. According to one estimate, AI could boost the global economy as much as 15% over the next decade, but it could also use as much power as the entire country of Japan by 2030. So meeting all that new electricity demand requires the entire grid to become bigger. And because...
Analysis

Electricity demand is experiencing a resurgence, driven by the transition to electric vehicles, heat pumps, and the growth of artificial intelligence, which heavily relies on data centers. This shift indicates a potential for significant economic growth, but it also poses challenges for energy infrastructure as demand could rival that of entire countries like Japan by 2030.

The flattening of electricity demand in Western economies over the past two decades is reversing, suggesting that traditional energy consumption patterns are changing. Investors should note that the evolving grid infrastructure will require substantial investment, creating opportunities in energy sectors and technologies that support this transition.

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