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13:57
PDT

Live Golf has filed for bankruptcy.

Live Golf PGA Tour Bloomberg John Ternes Chewy Jersey Mike's President Trump Dallas Balanced of Power Bloomberg Senior Sports Randall Williams Jersey Mike AAPL PRIVATE

– PGA Tour has quickly recovered financially.

– Investor sentiment may shift towards traditional sports leagues.

– The competitive landscape in sports is evolving.

– Future investments in alternative sports leagues may be scrutinized.

sports franchise valuationinvestor sentimentalternative sports leagues

▸ Full transcript

There will be a lot of people who return. But there also might be some people who stick around and might want to stick through what Live is going through, but we'll have to see. All right, Bloomberg Senior Sports reporter, Randall Williams, there on the news: Live Golf officially filing for bankruptcy as he closed out here on the close on this Tuesday afternoon. Push it out tomorrow, keep an eye on some earnings out of Chewy as well as Jersey Mike's. And we're going to have special coverage starting at 3 p.m. of John Ternes' first major product launch at Apple. We'll have that coverage starting here at 3 p.m. right here on the close. We do appreciate you joining us then. Meanwhile, for all your political coverage, stick around. The team of Balanced of Power, they're coming up at the top of the hour. And Will, they got a lot to talk about with President Trump set to head to Dallas for the first-ever national Republican midterm convention. This is Bloomberg. Your favorite game, connect points. For you, data is not just data. You are the whole thing, only good done. This is for those who have to recognize in all aspects. This is for the craft of finance. Room to the locker room, a place for bold ideas, powerful insights, and high-impact conversations. Every sport.

Analysis

Live Golf has officially filed for bankruptcy, raising questions about its financial viability after significant investments. The PGA Tour's quick recovery and access to substantial funds highlight the competitive dynamics in the golf industry.

The bankruptcy filing suggests potential shifts in investor sentiment towards alternative sports leagues, especially as traditional entities like the PGA Tour demonstrate resilience. Smart money should consider the implications of this event on future investments in sports franchises and leagues, particularly those reliant on external funding.

13:55
PDT

Saudis pulled funding from live golf amid profitability concerns.

Saudis live golf PGA Tour PGA

– PGA Tour accessed $3 billion, demonstrating strong financial recovery.

– Investment in sports ventures may face increased scrutiny.

– Market perception of profitability is critical for continued funding.

– Established organizations may outperform newer entrants in crisis.

sports investment volatilityentertainment sector scrutiny

▸ Full transcript

And there is an astronomical difference to when the Saudis are funding this and when they weren't. This isn't a surprise at all. So yeah, and that's kind of the key phrase here. It doesn't seem like they're really funding; as they're providing a little bit of a bridge here for the bankruptcy process. But do you have any sense as to why they couldn't have found a way to sort of make this work? I mean, what was sort of the real tripping point? I think the optics are that the Saudis were pushing live golf with a $5 billion rocket ship. And when you pull the plug on that and say, okay, we haven't made money, now of course they pulled the plug a lot earlier than live golf executives anticipated. But at that point, if you're going out there to the market and saying we have not been able to turn over a profit and yet $5 billion have been invested in you, then it's going to raise a lot of questions from people who you have conversations with. I remember when this started, there was a lot of head scratching, but then you saw the talent that they got. You know, obviously they spent a lot for that talent. Of course. But they got some big talent there, and it was a little bit of a looser game. The crowd was a little more fun. And for those of us, I mean, I'm a big golfer. And I don't like the state nature of golf. I was at a club this weekend. And it was very like dress code and everything. Yeah, it was very, the title was fine. But the idea was that this would draw more people. And I do wonder why it didn't gain a little bit more traction because it seemed like people were hungry for this. I think that the PGA Tour recovered very, very quickly. I mean, they sort of had the PGA Tour enterprises and up to $3 billion that they were able to access through that. And then you combine that with how long the history is.

Analysis

The Saudis' funding strategy for live golf has shifted dramatically, raising questions about profitability after a significant investment of $5 billion. The PGA Tour's quick recovery and access to $3 billion through its enterprises highlight the competitive resilience of established golf organizations.

Smart money should note the potential volatility in sports investments, particularly when large sums are involved without clear profitability. The rapid pivot from heavy investment to questioning viability suggests a cautious approach to future funding in similar ventures, especially in entertainment sectors reliant on public engagement.

13:53
PDT

Private credit managers are doubling requests for higher frequency valuations.

Crowl CrowdStrike Cisco G2 Patel Kroll Steps Zone Steps AI

– Increased transparency may lead to greater trading activity and volatility.

– The retailification of private markets is a growing trend.

– Many organizations are not prepared for AI-related security risks.

– The focus on governance and scrutiny is intensifying in private credit.

private credit marketAI security riskstransparency in valuations

▸ Full transcript

A little bit more evaluation of these and more transparent valuation, I should say, more frequent to the idea as more individual investors start to move into this space. Financial advisors, does that sort of counterintuitively maybe create more volatility in this space? I mean, you know, I know everyone criticizes, "Oh, well, we only get a mark, you know, every quarter or whatever." But if we can see some sort of a real-time valuation on a day-to-day basis, does that maybe increase the trading activity and increase the potential for volatility? Well, it increases liquidity, it increases transparency. And what we've seen actually is that many private credit managers are focused on increasing the frequency of their valuations. We saw a nearly doubling in requests for higher frequency in terms of our own valuation business by the managers. Oh, wow. To give you a sense of what people are focused on. And that's a combination of heightened focus on scrutiny and governance, the growth of the market, and to your earlier point, the retailification of the private markets, which is absolutely a trend that we see continuing to grow. I do want to ask you just about AI security. Obviously, Crowl does a lot more than just the private market valuations. I saw that you had joined the CrowdStrike's AI security coalition earlier this year, and we were just talking with Jitsu and a couple others about the concerns here as this AI build-out goes on, whether we're actually prepared for the security risk that comes with it. Where do we stand on that right now? The reality is that many companies and many systemically important organizations are not prepared.

Analysis

The private credit market is experiencing increased transparency and liquidity as managers focus on more frequent valuations, potentially leading to greater volatility. Additionally, many organizations remain unprepared for the security risks associated with AI advancements, highlighting a critical gap in readiness.

13:51
PDT

Private credit market shows stability and growth.

Cisco Open AI Anthropic Kroll Steps Kroll Steps Zone FEDFUNDS

– New payment-in-kind tracking feature enhances transparency.

– Fundamental credit metrics like leverage and interest coverage are positive.

– Rising interest rates may impact refinancing but good businesses will adapt.

– Focus on data governance is increasing among private credit managers.

private credit marketinterest rate impactdata governance

▸ Full transcript

With regards to that though, then does that mean we're seeing maybe a little bit less activity when it comes to payment in kind and some of these sort of extended pretend, forget my phrasing, that we saw or at least that was talked about a lot I should say, you know, early this year and of course all of last year? Yeah, it's a great question. And actually on the point of payment in kind, we are about to launch an enhancement to the Kroll Steps Zone private credit benchmarks, which is actually a pick tracking feature, payment and kind tracking feature, to be able to observe credit quality as evidenced by the usage of pick in the private credit landscape. In fact, what we're seeing is fundamental credit statistics and risk parameters in the private credit space are actually pretty good. Leverage is still relatively low. Interest coverage is reasonably constructive and positive. And margins have actually been holding in there, notwithstanding all of the focus and scrutiny on this market. Well, there is a kind of a big kind of refinancing calendar coming up ahead and that calendar is of course crashing head first into a Fed that most people think is going to start raising rates here. Is that kind of the improvement, I should say, that we've seen in private markets? Does that maybe change if we start to get a material increase in interest rates? At the end of the day, good businesses will be able to refinance. The private credit market and the credit market more broadly will support good businesses. Well, but hang on for a second. I mean, anybody can refund. Fine. It's.

Analysis

The private credit market is stabilizing and maturing, with a focus on data and governance, as evidenced by the launch of a new payment-in-kind tracking feature. Despite concerns over rising interest rates, fundamental credit statistics remain strong, suggesting that good businesses will still find refinancing support.

13:49
PDT

Private credit market is stable and growing.

Kroll Steps private credit market Kroll Steps Zone Private DXY

– Focus on data and governance is increasing among credit managers.

– Kroll Steps Zone benchmark tracks 30,000 positions.

– Benchmark aims to enhance transparency in private credit.

– Institutional interest may rise due to improved valuation clarity.

private credit growthdata governancemarket transparency

▸ Full transcript

Talked about this idea of some of the concerns that were out there, some of the growing pains. Has anything changed from the last time we talked, you know, four or five months ago to now? Great question. As I've been saying, the private credit market is actually stable, it's growing, and it's growing up. It's part of that growing up process, that maturity curve. There's a focus on data and governance. In fact, we're seeing that in the activities of private credit managers focused on actually being more frequent in their valuations and embracing facts, which is why a year ago, as you point out, we launched the Kroll Steps Zone Private Credit benchmark with our great partners at Steps. How many assets are you actually looking at in this? Yeah, so at this point, we believe we are the largest benchmark focused on the private credit market at this point in time, and it's growing every day. We have about 30,000 positions that we are valuing that represent well over a trillion dollars of capital that has been put to work and that is valued every day. That's a combination of both new issuance and time series regular way existing holds. Well, give me a sense, are you seeing a significant gap in what you're valuing and kind of, you know, what's actually the carry value of the loans themselves? Well, the whole purpose of the benchmark itself is to actually shine a light of truth, the transparency, and what has historically been a rather opaque market. In fact, what we're seeing is that great in-class private credit managers who we work with every day are actually very focused on.

Analysis

The private credit market is stabilizing and maturing, with a focus on data and governance as private credit managers increase the frequency of their valuations. The Kroll Steps Zone Private Credit benchmark, which tracks around 30,000 positions valued at over a trillion dollars, aims to enhance transparency in this historically opaque market.

Smart money should note that the benchmark's purpose is to provide clarity in valuation, which could lead to better investment decisions in private credit. The emphasis on transparency and governance may attract more institutional investors seeking reliable data in their investment strategies.

13:47
PDT

Cisco is merging security functions with networking hardware.

Cisco G2 Patel

– Smart switches will enhance real-time threat detection.

– The integration aims to reduce latency in security responses.

– This shift could lead to increased market share for Cisco.

– Investors should monitor the evolving cybersecurity landscape.

cybersecurity integrationnetwork securityreal-time threat detection

▸ Full transcript

If you take a step back, the architectural shift that is happening right now is that security is getting fused into the network. What that means is, you know, you had these things in the past, which was there was a firewall, and then there was a switch that actually moved your traffic around. One of the things forwarded the packets for the network, and the other one was the one that inspected the packets. What we are now starting to see happen is these two are fusing together and do these things called smart switches, which includes a firewall. What's the benefit of this? Why am I geeking out so much? It's because the reason for this is you want to make sure that the latency at which you can go out and detect something going wrong and then being able to stop it happens almost at near real time. Every millisecond counts, and the more performance you can eke out of the system, the more secure you're going to be. That's where Cisco has a huge advantage because we can take security and networking and fuse it together so that the network that you run on is a secure network. There is no such thing as an insecure network because if you're connected by Cisco, you will be protected. All right, G2, we got to catch up obviously an important conversation. G2 Patel, Cisco's president and chief product officer there, we do want to stay in the tech space here and take a look at it from the lens here of actually kind of what's investing and financing it, particularly in the private sector. There's been a lot of fears of the SaaS Pocalypse making waves across the software sector, but that has a...

Analysis

Cisco is integrating security into its networking infrastructure by fusing firewalls with smart switches, enabling near real-time threat detection and response. This architectural shift positions Cisco to enhance network security significantly, leveraging its existing telemetry capabilities.

The move towards smart switches indicates a broader trend in cybersecurity where speed and performance are paramount. Investors should note that as cyber threats evolve, companies that can provide integrated security solutions will likely see increased demand and market share.

13:44
PDT

Cisco stresses the importance of AI in combating sophisticated cyber threats.

Cisco G2 Patel Open AI Anthropic AI

– Lateral movement of attackers is a key focus area for network security.

– Cisco's telemetry data gives it a competitive advantage in cybersecurity.

– The cybersecurity landscape is shifting towards AI-driven solutions.

– Traditional security measures may be inadequate against modern threats.

cybersecurityAI integrationlateral movement prevention

▸ Full transcript

Your defenses also have to be machine scale. So it's a counterintuitive thing, but if you don't use AI, you're going to be less secure because there's no way for humans by themselves to be able to combat machine scale attacks that are going to happen in a more and more sophisticated manner as these models get more and more prominent and capable. Well, give me an idea where Cisco sits in that pipeline because when we talk about these attacks or the attempts, is that something that can be sort of captured or detected along that networking route, forgive the lack of the pedestrian phrasing here, but along that pipeline before it actually gets to the actual server or the end user? That's actually quite impressive, Romain. And so let me actually just break it down for you the way this happens, because what you have to assume in this world right now is that these adversaries, the bad actors, have already broken into your system. And the name of the game is what they call, in technical terms, preventing lateral movement. What is lateral movement? Lateral movement means that these attackers that have gotten into your network, if they wanted to steal credit card information from your credit card database, they don't go directly to your credit card database. They actually come in through an email spam attack. And then they kind of sit for a while, and they just hop from system to system. And so that's what they call lateral movement. So you have to prevent lateral movement. Where does lateral movement happen? It happens on the network. Who has the most monetary telemetry about the network? Cisco does.

Analysis

Cisco emphasizes the necessity of AI in cybersecurity, stating that without it, organizations will be less secure against increasingly sophisticated machine-scale attacks. The company highlights its unique position in preventing lateral movement of attackers within networks, leveraging its extensive telemetry data to enhance security measures.

Smart money should note that as cyber threats evolve, companies like Cisco that integrate AI into their security frameworks may gain a competitive edge. The focus on preventing lateral movement indicates a shift in cybersecurity strategies, suggesting that traditional defenses may no longer suffice in the face of advanced persistent threats.

13:39
PDT

Qualcomm's deal with Amazon targets $60 billion in revenue over 10 years.

Qualcomm Amazon Apple Ilya Espinode Morota Panama Canal China U.S.AI AAPL

– The company is diversifying into AI-centric data center solutions.

– High memory costs are impacting edge devices in the consumer market.

– Qualcomm is confident in achieving its 2027 revenue forecast.

– The transition to AI solutions may offset smartphone market risks.

AI integrationdata center growthsmartphone market dynamics

▸ Full transcript

Obviously, you guys still get a lot of money from the smartphone space. We're expected to have a relatively big event tomorrow from Apple announcing new smartphones. Can you just give us a sense overall? You don't need to comment specifically on Apple, but just kind of where we are in this smartphone cycle and how accretive you expect that business to be going forward as you sort of make this bridge into a more AI-centric data center business? Yeah, we're excited about devices at the edge as well. I think we've seen some impact due to the high memory cost and supply constraints on edge devices, especially in the consumer area. But as we look forward, I think because of AI, we're going to see these devices.

Analysis

Qualcomm's recent deal with Amazon to supply data center chips is expected to generate $60 billion in revenue over the next decade, boosting confidence in their 2027 revenue forecast. The company is diversifying into AI-centric data center solutions while navigating challenges in the smartphone market due to high memory costs and supply constraints.

The shift towards AI and data center solutions indicates a strategic pivot for Qualcomm, positioning them to capitalize on the growing demand for high-performance, low-power chips. This transition may mitigate risks associated with the smartphone cycle, suggesting a potential for sustained growth in a competitive landscape.

13:36
PDT

Qualcomm's focus on low power, high performance solutions is critical as data center demands evolve.

Qualcomm Amazon Humane Meta U.S. administration Panama Canal Ilya Espinode Morota China Russia Ukraine LNG CFO AMZN META

– The partnership with Amazon and engagement with another hyperscaler highlight Qualcomm's growing influence in the data center space.

– The unique HBC technology positions Qualcomm to address key challenges in AI acceleration.

– Issuing warrants against the Amazon deal reflects a strategic approach to capitalizing on future revenue potential.

– Qualcomm's diverse customer base enhances its market resilience.

data center growthAI chip innovationgeopolitical neutrality

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Because of the Russia-Ukraine war, we are seeing LNG coming back to the canal, which is good news. Bulk carriers suffer more from draft restrictions, but the market is slowly recovering. We do not like these dry years, but we are making the best of it by adjusting our reservation system to be more flexible, ensuring everyone gets a chance to transit the canal. We are also continuing with our net zero slot initiative, which benefits greener vessels by allowing them a reservation each week. We regularly communicate with our clients to adjust our reservation system to maximize cargo with each transit, aiming for efficiency. Regarding the gas pipeline project, I am curious about your relationship with the U.S. administration. Are they involved at all, or have they pressured you to ensure U.S. companies are involved? I must point out that President Trump's rhetoric has been pointed, discussing taking back the canal. Your president has stated that this dispute has been resolved, but it has become a political issue on our side of the border. How do you navigate a project that is still years away amidst this political noise? The canal is not a political entity; all diplomatic issues are handled by the government. We are an autonomous, project-driven entity. Despite the political noise, the canal has remained competitive under Panamanian administration for 25 years. We are committed to ensuring that world commerce can move through the Panama Canal efficiently, which guarantees our neutrality. We comply with the neutrality treaty and have had more countries subscribe to it, which has worked beautifully for 25 years. Since opening the new locks in 2016, we have doubled the cargo capacity through the canal. Thank you for your time today, and congratulations on your new job as the administrator of the Panama Canal, Ilya Espinode Morota. We want to reset after a day where stocks were down following the Labor Day holiday, but we saw strong bids in the tech space, with companies like Core Weave, Intel, and Qualcomm seeing gains. Qualcomm shares closed up over 3% after landing Amazon as a data center chip customer. The CFO of Qualcomm is here to discuss this new deal, which involves supplying multiple generations of optical connectivity solutions to Amazon. We are looking at a long-term target of $60 billion in revenue over the next 10 years and are issuing warrants against it. We are excited about this opportunity to develop our data center business and are confident in achieving our 2027 revenue forecast and delivering strong growth in 2028. Can you explain why you chose to issue warrants against this deal? We believe this structure is attractive for our shareholders and allows us to diversify into a new area. The net economics of this transaction are favorable for our shareholders. We see significant potential upside in both the top and bottom lines, especially as the AI chip space evolves rapidly.

Analysis

Qualcomm is positioning itself as a significant player in the data center market by developing a broad portfolio of custom chips, AI accelerators, and connectivity solutions, emphasizing high performance at low power. The company has secured partnerships with major players like Amazon and is engaged with another global hyperscaler, indicating strong demand for its innovative technology, particularly in AI acceleration.

13:34
PDT

Qualcomm targets $60 billion in revenue over 10 years from new optical connectivity solutions.

Qualcomm Amazon Ilya Espinode Morota Panama Canal Russia-Ukraine war AI

– Warrants issued against the deal indicate confidence in long-term growth.

– The strategy aims to diversify Qualcomm's business into new areas.

– Strong growth is anticipated for 2027 and beyond.

– The AI chip market is evolving rapidly, presenting new opportunities.

AI chip marketdata center growthlong-term revenue strategy

▸ Full transcript

to supply multiple generations of optical connectivity solutions to them. As a part of this, we're looking at a transaction that is a long-term target of $60 billion in revenue over the next 10 years, and we're issuing warrants against it. So, very excited that this is going to be one of the ways we're going to develop our data center business. It gives us very high confidence in achieving the 2027 revenue forecast that we put in front of investors a couple of months ago and also delivering strong growth in 2028 beyond what we had previously expected. So overall, a great day for us and a great opportunity for us. Just real quickly though, give me a sense here of why you chose to sort of issue the warrants against it. What was the thinking behind that? Yeah, I think we're looking at the value that this deal is going to bring to Qualcomm. Obviously, it's a very large transaction. I think it allows us to diversify into a new area. This is a structure that has been adopted by few players in the industry. And when we look at the net economics of this transaction to our shareholders, we think it's very attractive for them. And that was the consideration we entered into this transaction. So we talk about maybe the potential upside here to obviously the top and bottom line here. Give me some sense as to how much runway you think is going. We talk about the AI chip space and it's evolving and it's evolving fast. We're already sort of moving away from just, you know, sort of the basics to.

Analysis

Qualcomm is set to supply multiple generations of optical connectivity solutions, targeting $60 billion in revenue over the next decade, which boosts confidence in their 2027 revenue forecast. The issuance of warrants against this deal indicates a strategic move to diversify and enhance shareholder value, reflecting a strong belief in the transaction's potential upside.

The decision to issue warrants is a notable strategy that few industry players have adopted, suggesting Qualcomm is positioning itself for significant growth in the evolving AI chip market. This move not only diversifies their portfolio but also aligns with the increasing demand for advanced data center solutions, which could reshape their revenue trajectory in the coming years.

13:32
PDT

Panama Canal reducing daily transit slots from 36 to 34, aiming for 32.

Panama Canal Ilya Espinode Morota Core Weave Intel Qualcomm Amazon CFO Labor Day AMZN

– Recent rainfall has allowed for the postponement of further draft restrictions.

– Long-term projects are in place to enhance hydro security by 2031.

– Revenue forecast for 2027 is $5.5 billion, up from $5.2 billion in 2026.

– LNG traffic is returning to the canal, indicating a recovery in certain shipping sectors.

shipping logisticsgeopolitical neutralityinfrastructure investment

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World commerce can move through the Panama Canal in as efficient a way as possible, which is a way to guarantee that neutrality treaty. We're very conscious about it and we make sure that we comply with it; whatever was agreed, we follow. We also had a few more countries that have subscribed to the neutrality treaty. We think it's really great because it's worked beautifully for these 25 years. We can see how the cargo that the canal has moved since we opened the new locks in 2016 has doubled the capacity of cargo going through the canal. So I think that's evidence, that's proof of what we can accomplish by being neutral, by being professional, and by doing the job that we're here to do, which is facilitate world commerce to everybody. All right, administrator, really appreciate you taking time for us today and congratulations on the new job. The administrator of the Panama Canal, Ilya Espinode Morota. All right, we do want to reset just a little bit here as we come off a day where we saw stocks down in the red here coming off of the Labor Day holiday, but we did see some pretty strong bids in the tech space. We saw names like Core Weave and Intel getting strong bids. And so too did Qualcomm. In fact, those shares closed up over 3%. This was after landing Amazon as a data center chip customer, and the investor joining us right now to talk a little bit more about this new deal is the CFO of Qualcomm.

Analysis

The Panama Canal is adjusting transit slots from 36 to 34, with a forecast to eventually reach 32, while maintaining a 48-foot draft due to recent rainfall. The canal's management is optimistic about maintaining operations without severe restrictions, thanks to improved water levels and long-term projects aimed at enhancing hydro security by 2031.

Smart money should note that the canal's ability to adapt to weather conditions and maintain neutrality amidst geopolitical pressures positions it as a resilient player in global trade. The ongoing projects and adjustments in transit slots reflect a proactive approach to managing both water resources and shipping demands, which could stabilize revenue streams in the coming years.

13:30
PDT

Panama Canal revenue forecast for 2027 is $5.5 billion.

Ilya Espino de Morota Panama Canal Panamanian president U.S.China Russia Ukraine President Trump USDCNH META

– Current transit levels are being adjusted from 36 to 34 and potentially to 32 due to rainfall patterns.

– Long-term water-saving measures are in place to mitigate drought impacts.

– The canal remains politically neutral despite external pressures from the U.S. and China.

– LNG traffic is returning to the canal, indicating a recovery in that sector.

geopolitical riskinfrastructure investmentshipping industry dynamics

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I do just have to point out, I mean Trump's rhetoric, the President Trump's rhetoric has been pretty pointed. He's talked about taking back the canal. I know your president, the Panamanian president has said that this dispute has been resolved. But it gets to this idea that this has become a political football on our side of the border. How do you navigate a project that's still years away and ensure that it can get done on that timetable with some of the politics surrounding it? Well, the canal is not a very political entity. So actually all of the diplomatic issues are handled by government. We are a very autonomous entity, project driven. So I know there's a lot of noise in the news, but really the canal has remained as competitive as ever in these 25 years of Panamanian administration. We are a very open and neutral canal. So I understand that there's some noise politically wise, but the canal keeps running every day, the way we've been doing it for the last 25 years. And just final, and I just want not to keep harping this, but I want to make sure that neutrality, that you can assure folks that that neutrality is there. You go back to the 70s when that treaty was signed, but we talk about whether it's a pressure on the U.S. on Panama, but the pressure on the U.S. on China, China's pressure on you as well. How do you make sure that you can stand up to that neutrality when you have the two biggest economies in the world, the two biggest military superpowers in the world leaning on you?

Analysis

The new administrator of the Panama Canal, Ilya Espino de Morota, indicated that while the canal is currently under pressure from rainfall patterns and geopolitical tensions, it is still generating record revenue. The forecast for 2027 anticipates $5.5 billion in revenue, reflecting a recovery in LNG traffic despite ongoing draft restrictions affecting bulk carriers.

The canal's management is proactively addressing potential drought conditions with long-term water-saving measures, including the development of a new reservoir. This strategic approach not only aims to maintain transit levels but also ensures the canal's neutrality amidst geopolitical pressures from the U.S. and China, which could influence its operations and revenue streams.

13:28
PDT

Panama Canal may reduce daily transits from 34 to 32 due to drought.

Panama Canal Ilya Espino de Morota Financial Times U.S. administration LNG White House

– Recent rainfall has temporarily eased restrictions.

– Projected revenue for 2027 is $5.5 billion.

– LNG traffic is returning to the canal.

– The canal is adapting its reservation system for greener vessels.

shipping logisticsenergy marketsenvironmental sustainability

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Because of the Russia-Ukraine war, we are seeing LNG coming back to the canal, which is good news. However, bulk carriers suffer more when we have draft restrictions, so that market is recovering slowly. We do not like these dry years, but we make the best we can by not defining the industry and making the reservation system a little more flexible, ensuring everyone gets a chance to transit the canal. We are also continuing with our net zero slot, which is a perk for vessels that are going greener, allowing them to get a reservation a week. We regularly communicate with our clients and adjust our reservation system to ensure everyone gets a chance to transit and maximize cargo with each transit, aiming to avoid penalties from insufficient reservations. As we embark on these projects, particularly with the gas pipeline, I am curious about your relationship with the U.S. administration. Are they involved at all, or have they made any bids to get that gas pipeline up and running? Has there been any pressure from the White House to ensure that U.S. or U.S.-led companies and consortiums are involved?

Analysis

The Panama Canal is facing potential transit cuts due to ongoing drought conditions, with forecasts indicating a reduction from 34 to 32 daily transits. However, recent rainfall has temporarily alleviated some restrictions, allowing the canal to maintain current operations while preparing for long-term water management solutions.

Smart money should note that the canal's revenue is projected to increase to $5.5 billion in 2027, reflecting a recovery in LNG traffic and a strategic shift towards accommodating greener vessels. The ongoing adjustments in transit slots and reservation systems indicate a proactive approach to managing shipping demand amidst environmental challenges.

13:26
PDT

New lake project aims for long-term hydro security by 2031.

Panama Canal Ilya Espino de Morota El Ni

– Current revenue forecast for 2027 is $5.5 billion.

– Canal management is proactively adjusting transit numbers to balance water supply and shipping demands.

– Rainfall patterns are being closely monitored to inform operational adjustments.

– The canal supports over two million people with drinking water, highlighting its dual role.

infrastructure investmentwater managementshipping logistics

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It becomes permanent if we are not doing something long-term about it, but because we are already working on the El Niño Lake, which is a new lake and reservoir to store that rainfall that we get in the rainy months when we don't have El Niño, that will allow us to maintain our 36 transits with a 50-foot draft long term. This project definitely is going to not be ready until 2031, but it's a long-term measure that gives us 50 years of hydro security for the canal. Remember that more than two and a half million people consume drinking water from the canal lakes. So basically, we have two activities that compete against each other, and the new lake will give us the ability to handle both without restricting either, because we cannot restrict drinking water, but that's why we adjust the number of transits. Well, give me a sense of what the bridge is until we get to 2031. Obviously, it's going to take a lot to get these projects done. I was looking at your revenue numbers for the current year so far. I think you said in the past you were going to top $5.2 billion for fiscal 2026. I mean, what are we looking at for 2027 and for the years between now and 2031? Okay, year 2027. We already presented the budget to the cabinet and it's been approved, and we're following now with the assembly. It's a 5.5 billion forecast.

Analysis

The Panama Canal is implementing long-term measures to ensure hydro security and maintain transit levels despite competing demands for water. Revenue forecasts for fiscal 2027 are set at $5.5 billion, indicating a positive outlook for the canal's financial performance.

13:24
PDT

Panama Canal maintains 34 daily transits for now.

Panama Canal Ilya Espino de Morota El Ni

– Forecasting a potential reduction to 32 transits.

– Recent rainfall has improved conditions, delaying further restrictions.

– Proactive water-saving measures are in place.

– Better lake conditions compared to 2023 suggest resilience.

shipping logisticsclimate resilience

▸ Full transcript

We also reduce two slots from 36 dailies to 34 and eventually we'll go to 32. The good news is that in the last few days, we've had a little bit of rainfall that has allowed us to postpone the further draft restriction. So we maintain that 34 transits, we maintain the 48-foot draft. We evaluate on a weekly basis how the weather is behaving, how shipping is behaving, and we notify the industry well in advance about what the adjustments are going to be. Right now we're forecasting 32 transits farther down the road. But if rains improve between now and December, we still have the rest of September, October, and November, which are the rainiest months of the year, even with El Niño. So hopefully we'll be able to maintain that. Well, I'm curious, what if the rain, what if things get worse here? Are we going to go back to kind of what we saw in 2023 with the drought when we saw those trends drop to about 22 a day? No, we're not forecasting that at all because we had a very wet dry season. We started water-saving measures quite a bit before, knowing that El Niño was coming. So the lakes right now are in a better position than they were back in 2023. Therefore, that's why we dropped from 36 dailies to 34 and eventually to 32, to try to maintain that type of level during the dry season. So we're really preparing.

Analysis

The Panama Canal is currently maintaining 34 daily transits and a 48-foot draft due to recent rainfall, postponing further draft restrictions. The canal's administrator forecasts a potential reduction to 32 transits in the future, but improved rainfall could stabilize operations through the rainy season.

Smart money should note that the canal's proactive water-saving measures and better lake conditions compared to 2023 position it to avoid severe transit drops. This indicates a more resilient operational strategy amidst climate variability, which could impact global shipping logistics and costs.

13:22
PDT

Ilya Espino de Morota is the new administrator of the Panama Canal.

Ilya Espino de Morota Panama Canal Financial Times Iran Bloomberg Insight Bloomberg Power Players New York Ilya Espino PRIVATE

– The canal is experiencing record revenue despite environmental and geopolitical pressures.

– Potential transit cuts could arise from adverse rainfall patterns.

– The leadership change may lead to new operational strategies.

– Global shipping routes could be affected by these developments.

global shippinggeopolitical tensionsenvironmental impact

▸ Full transcript

Boardroom to the locker room, a place for bold ideas, powerful insights, and high-impact conversations. Every sport grounded in Bloomberg Insight. Join us, Bloomberg Power Players, New York, September 10th, 2026. Further strains could be in store around global shipping. The new head of the Panama Canal, warning of possible transit cuts, told the Financial Times earlier that they represent a worst-case scenario based on rainfall patterns. This, as the waterway is already under pressure from the conflict in Iran. Joining us right now is Ilya Espino de Morota, the new administrator of the Panama Canal. Before we get to the nitty-gritty, you were just sworn in, I think, less than 48 hours ago. But I mean, you've been there a long time. I mean, 40 years ago, riding that train up in Cologne as a temporary hire, the only woman engineer out there in the canal shipyard. And now you're running the whole thing. It's gotta feel good, Ilya, doesn't it? Yes, it does feel good. I'm excited, super excited with this new challenge. Well, let's talk about some of those challenges. I mean, on the plus side, the canal is taking in record revenue.

Analysis

The new head of the Panama Canal, Ilya Espino de Morota, has taken on the challenge of managing the canal amidst pressures from rainfall patterns and geopolitical conflicts. Despite these challenges, the canal is currently generating record revenue, indicating strong demand for its services.

Smart investors should note the potential for transit cuts due to environmental factors, which could impact global shipping routes and costs. The leadership change at the canal may also signal a shift in operational strategies that could affect shipping logistics and trade flows.

13:20
PDT

Mexico's capital markets need more international investor participation.

Maria Arisa Beva Stock Exchange USMCA Mexico Bolsa Biva

– Regulatory changes are aimed at making IPO processes easier.

– Private debt is currently dominating the capital markets over public equities.

– Infrastructure and energy sectors are highlighted as key investment opportunities.

– Biva has increased market liquidity and company listings since its inception.

capital market developmentforeign investmentinfrastructure opportunities

▸ Full transcript

Andere nur Details sehen, erkennst du die Möglichkeiten. Das ist für alle, die aus kleinen Insights einen großen Unterschied machen. Das ist for the craft of finance.

Analysis

Mexico's financial leaders are pushing for local companies to raise capital in domestic markets rather than seeking funds from U.S. investors. The Beva Stock Exchange is working to enhance market liquidity and attract foreign investment, particularly in infrastructure and energy sectors.

Despite a robust private equity landscape, the Mexican public equity market is underperforming, with regulatory changes aimed at facilitating IPOs. The need for deeper market engagement and the potential for new investor layers present significant opportunities for growth in Mexico's capital markets.

13:18
PDT

Biva has raised market liquidity by 70%.

Biva Bolsa Mexico U.S.Trump SEAL Bombardier Does Biva

– Over 50 new companies have entered the Mexican market.

– Regulatory changes are ongoing to support market growth.

– Many Mexican companies are still institutionalizing.

– Attracting international investors is crucial for market depth.

market liquiditycapital marketsinternational investmentregulatory changes

▸ Full transcript

Also, we've seen, like I said, there just aren't enough companies going public. So it raises the question: why do we need both? Does Biva and Bolsa need to exist? I know there's been some talk about Biva being up for sale. Are you still sort of fielding offers? Yes. And actually, I know, and I think we've done our job, and fees are now half of it. We have basically raised the volume by 70% since we started operations, so liquidity is better for Mexican companies, and we have now reached more than 50 new companies in the Mexican market. So we have done our work; of course, there's much needed to do. We changed it; we helped be part of the changing regulation, and we're pushing onto this new investor layer opportunity. But I think things are good for us; we're looking for the Mexican market. Since there are many companies, I want to change the concept; there are many Mexican companies that can get into the market. They're on their way to do it. They're in their way of institutionalization. And I think we can actually be a real option for financing those companies. So opportunities are there. We need a deeper market.

Analysis

Biva has successfully increased market liquidity by 70% since its inception, facilitating over 50 new companies entering the Mexican market. However, the need for a deeper market remains critical as many Mexican companies are still in the process of institutionalization and seeking financing options.

Smart investors should note that while Biva has improved conditions for local companies, the ongoing regulatory changes and the push for a more integrated financial market could present significant opportunities for growth in Mexico's capital markets. The focus on attracting international investors is essential for sustaining this momentum and enhancing market depth.

13:16
PDT

Mexican companies prefer U.S. markets for capital.

Beva Stock Exchange Mexico U.S.USMCA Romaine Royne

– Regulatory changes aim to ease IPO processes in Mexico.

– Private debt dominates current capital market activity.

– Fiscal incentives are being introduced to boost IPOs.

– Liquidity in public markets remains a critical issue.

capital market dynamicsforeign investmentIPO activityprivate equity

▸ Full transcript

The main stock exchange there is outpacing actual listings. When a Mexican company wants to go public or seeks capital, it looks to the U.S. I know you guys, a couple of years ago, kind of loosened your securities laws a little bit to make that process easier. Yes. When did we start to see the results of that? I think, Royne, it's starting to happen. We needed the regulation to be easier and more efficient for companies to come in; it isn't in the U.S. And we needed a deeper, liquid market as it's needed in the U.S. So the valuations for companies make sense. We're trying to work on that. We're actually moving on a fiscal incentive in Mexico for IPOs as well. I think since we are pushing new companies and trying to develop a layer of new investors with fiscal incentives, the local markets have a huge opportunity. Of course, we need foreign investors to come in and push that up. Well, I didn't see, though, that the debt side is doing pretty well. I saw something like 150 billion pesos in private placements through the first six months of the year. But that seems to suggest that right now your capital markets are much more driven by private debt than they are public equities. I mean, we have a very deep private equity world. But our markets are record high. 2025, 2026, we're record high in...

Analysis

Mexican companies are increasingly looking to the U.S. for capital, as local regulations are being adjusted to facilitate IPOs and attract foreign investment. The current focus on private debt suggests a shift in capital market dynamics, with a need for deeper liquidity in public equities to enhance valuations and investor interest.

Smart money should note the ongoing fiscal incentives for IPOs in Mexico, which could signal a potential uptick in public market activity. Additionally, the reliance on private debt indicates a gap in public equity engagement that could present opportunities for investors willing to navigate the evolving landscape.

13:14
PDT

10-year yield up 1 basis point to ~4.79%.

Qualcomm Amazon Core Weave Intel Striker Corp Iran Brent crude Bloom Energy S&P 500 Nevada Newcore Bombardier

– Two-year yield increased by 3 basis points.

– Brent crude oil prices rose to $99 per barrel.

– Bloom Energy shares up 10% ahead of S&P 500 inclusion.

– Striker Corp shares down 9% due to cybersecurity concerns.

trade tensionsfinancial integrationinvestment opportunitiesgeopolitical risks

▸ Full transcript

40% of the GDP. So capital, local capital is very profound. But we need international investors to come in and to co-invest with the local managers so that we can really deploy capital into these underserved markets that are still there. Infrastructure, for example, is a huge opportunity, energy, electricity, manufacturing. So there are great rare opportunities and so investment can come in and growth can flow. Well, I'm curious about that too because when we talk, I mean even before USMCA and we go back to NAFTA and just some of the other trade relationships that the US and Mexico have had, that's been much more focused on manufacturing and that sort of side of the economy, basically the supply chain, if you will. You didn't see as much financial integration over the years and I'm wondering why we were not seeing a little bit more cross-border integration of our financial markets in a way that would not only help Mexico but maybe even to a certain extent help the U.S. No, and that's exactly what we need and we are trying to focus on that. We are very integrated and we have a very solid and supervised financial system in Mexico. But we need our local market to be liquid and to be dynamic so that also we have new American investors come in and see the activity and the assets that we offer and the pushing. So it's a two-way.

Analysis

Yields have seen a slight increase, with the 10-year yield up one basis point to approximately 4.79%, while the two-year yield rose by three basis points. The ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, along with elevated oil prices and potential Fed rate hikes, are creating strains in financial markets, impacting investor sentiment.

13:12
PDT

Intel up 9% on price increase report and upgrade.

Intel Amgen DigiTimes Northland Securities Mexico USMCA Maria Arisa Beva Stock Exchange CEO New York Investment Week

– Amgen down over 10% due to heart drug trial failure.

– Mexico's investment climate impacted by USMCA negotiations.

– Local markets need to attract investors away from U.S. markets.

– Geopolitical stability is critical for investment strategies.

geopolitical riskinvestment climatetrade negotiations

▸ Full transcript

Change leaders still need to find ways to get Mexico's great companies to raise money on local public markets rather than going to New York or to U.S.-based private equity deal makers. Joining us right now in New York in studio two is Maria Arisa. She's the CEO of the Beva Stock Exchange, one of the organizers of Mexico's Investment Week, which is being held here in New York. Great to see you here. Thank you, Romaine. Thank you for your time. You and Beva have been doing this now for about seven years. Yes, the climate wasn't a whole lot different back then. I think you were dealing with trade issues and geopolitical issues back then. But the same things have kind of taken a little bit of a turn over the last few months. And I am curious, does that complicate your pitch to investors here in New York this week? Thank you. Thank you for your time. It's been seven years since we started. And I think the conversation, it's always important for both sides to sit down and talk about the things that move things and move the needle and the investors always have these questions or suggestions as for them to be ready to invest in Mexico. And for our local markets, we need the investors to come in. So this same with the year and right now at this point in time, as you said, we are in the midst of the negotiations of the Russians of the USMCA. So for Mexico, it's crucial that we sit down.

Analysis

Intel has rallied approximately 9% following a positive report from DigiTimes indicating potential price increases and an upgrade from Northland Securities, which set a price target of $120. Conversely, Amgen has dropped over 10% due to negative news regarding its heart drug, which analysts believe signals trouble for its ongoing projects.

The ongoing negotiations surrounding the USMCA treaty are crucial for Mexico's investment climate, as local companies seek to attract capital without relying on U.S. markets. This highlights the importance of geopolitical stability and trade relations in shaping investment strategies in the region.

13:09
PDT

Intel gained 9% on positive news and an upgrade.

Intel Bloom Energy Striker Corp Iran Brent crude Canada Bombardier U.S.Mexico Northland Securities DigiTimes SEAL S&P 500 FEDFUNDS PRIVATE CL=F

– Bloom Energy rose 10% ahead of S&P 500 inclusion.

– Striker Corp fell 9% due to cybersecurity concerns.

– Brent crude prices increased to $99 amid geopolitical tensions.

– Trade tensions are negatively impacting Canadian stocks.

geopolitical risktrade tensionstech sector volatilityoil price impact

▸ Full transcript

and that was primarily in the tech space with Core Weave having a phenomenal day, Intel up about 9% as well. But the concerns about whether it's cybersecurity, which actually took Striker Corp down about 9% on this day, or some of the issues going on right now. In Iran, a headline just crossing the Bloomberg Terminal a while ago suggested the U.S. has increased its strikes on Iran, particularly around some of those key C.C.R.G. Island storage facilities that pushed Brent crude back up to 99 bucks a barrel here in the new session that is trading overnight. One of the bright spots out there though was Bloom Energy, up about 10% on the day ahead of its addition into the S&P 500 in about a week and a half. Meanwhile, Nevada's taken a huge lay down, its ADRs having their worst days since they were listed here in the U.S. back in 1995. And keep an eye on Newcore. Those trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada are taking SEAL stocks down a notch on the day and also taking down Canadian stocks as well, including Bombardier, the primary plane maker there in Canada. And that does bring us to our top story here for the hour. That is the increasing strains on financial markets amid a lot of the wild currency swings, the elevated oil prices, and the likely potential for Fed rate hikes. Now you add in the escalation of the trade flap between the U.S. and its two nearest neighbors and two biggest trading partners, Mexico and Canada. A fourth round of renegotiation of the USMCA treaty that Trump ushered in during his first term. Well, that was the...

Analysis

Intel surged approximately 9% following a positive report from DigiTimes regarding potential price increases and an upgrade from Northland Securities. Meanwhile, Bloom Energy rose about 10% ahead of its upcoming addition to the S&P 500, indicating strong investor interest in the stock.

The market is reacting to geopolitical tensions, particularly increased U.S. strikes on Iran, which have pushed Brent crude prices back up to $99 a barrel. Additionally, the ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada are impacting Canadian stocks, suggesting that investors should be cautious about sector exposure amid these developments.

13:08
PDT

S&P 500 closed down 45 points, or 0.6%.

S&P 500 Amgen Intel DigiTimes Northland Security Novartis Pella Carson Bloom Energy Ever Pure D-Wave Reggetti Computing US diesel prices

– Amgen fell over 10% due to negative trial results.

– Intel rose 9% on positive price expectations and an upgrade.

– Most sectors in the S&P 500 were lower, with tech being a major decliner.

– Energy stocks saw modest gains amid rising oil prices.

biotech sector concernsoil price inflationtech sector divergence

▸ Full transcript

Risikoprofil wählen und fertig. JPM's Strategic Allocation Active ETFs. Von The Home of Active ETFs. Wir schämen die Politik, wir holen die Innovation, wir protekten die digitale Ordnung.

Analysis

The S&P 500 hit session lows as oil futures spiked, closing down roughly 45 points or about 0.6%. Most US stocks were in the red, with September historically being the weakest month for equities.

Smart money should note the significant decline in Amgen, down over 10% due to negative news regarding its heart drug, which could signal broader concerns in the biotech sector. Additionally, Intel's 9% rally, driven by a price increase expectation and an upgrade, highlights a divergence in sector performance amidst overall market weakness.

13:03
PDT

Intel up 9% on price increase report and upgrade.

Intel Amgen DigiTimes Northland Securities Novartis Baird Pella Carson S&P 500 NASDAQ 100

– Amgen down over 10% due to failed heart drug trial.

– Market shows confidence in semiconductor pricing power.

– Biotech sector remains sensitive to clinical trial results.

– Overall market volatility persists amid geopolitical tensions.

semiconductor pricing powerbiotech trial risksmarket volatilitysector rotation

▸ Full transcript

6.6% Reggetti gain also in today's session. D-Wave you can see kind of bouncing around off its recent highs, but nonetheless up six and a half percent higher in Reggetti computing. We also saw, I believe, some gains in that one as well. So some excitement in that area. Intel, gotta talk about that one. I believe, let me just check my boards. Your number two gainer in the S&P 500, and if I look at the NASDAQ 100, we see it also your number three gainer. Intel rallying up about 9% here. A couple of things. First, higher falling report from DigiTimes that the company's expected to raise prices. The report cited supply chain sources. Northland Securities upgraded the chipmaker to outperform from market perform. And they've got a price target set to 120, implying a 25% increase from the last price. So a couple of things going on that report about raising prices. And then you also had an upgrade from Northland Securities. So investors, Tim, moving into that one. All right, what are they moving out of today? I want to start with the second worst for a 180 percentage basis in the S&P 500 today, that would be Amgen down more than 10%, a double dose of bad news for the company. It's working on a heart drug, and that's why it fell today, because Novartis said its potential blockbuster heart medication, Pella Carson, failed in a final stage study. The analyst over at Baird says that the Novartis trial failure is a negative signal for Amgen's alpacerin, which it's working on as well. down today, Amgen, down about 10%. It wasn't just.

Analysis

Intel saw a significant rally, gaining about 9% following a positive report from DigiTimes regarding potential price increases and an upgrade from Northland Securities. Conversely, Amgen faced a sharp decline of over 10% due to negative news surrounding its heart drug development, which analysts believe signals trouble for its pipeline.

The market's reaction to Intel's news highlights a growing confidence in semiconductor pricing power, while Amgen's drop underscores the risks associated with biotech drug trials. Investors should note the contrasting fortunes of these sectors, as the semiconductor space appears to be gaining momentum amid supply chain adjustments, while biotech remains vulnerable to clinical trial outcomes.

13:01
PDT

S&P 500 closed down 45 points, or 0.6%.

S&P 500 Dow NASDAQ Russell 2000 Bloom Energy Ever Pure U.S.Iran US The Dow Dow Jones NASDAQ CL=F

– Dow lost about 600 points, or 1.2%.

– NASDAQ down 0.3%, Russell 2000 down 0.5%.

– Energy stocks gained modestly amid rising oil prices.

– September historically weak for stocks.

geopolitical riskoil pricesmarket volatility

▸ Full transcript

Top down in today at about $99.46. The head dropped back below $97, but on the back of that headline, spiking back up now just a smidge below $99.00 a barrel. That's a headline that also sent the S&P to session lows on the day. It's going to close just off those session lows, down roughly about 45 points or about 0.6%. The Dow losing about 600 points or 1.2%. The NASDAQ down about 0.3% and the Russell 2000 down 15 points or 0.5% to close out this Tuesday afternoon. Just remember, September is historically the weakest month for stocks. So, I'm just going to point that out there with so much coming at us. As for the Tuesday trade, most names in the S&P 500 were lower, remaining 357 to the downside, 146 to the upside. Absolutely. And we talk about the sectors that actually moved on the day. Well, you're going to have to look long and hard to find them. Tech, of course, one of the big decliners on the day and no surprise there. Energy stocks getting a bit, a modest bit, we should say here on this Tuesday afternoon as a lot of people start to price in, not just higher oil prices, but remember it's a lot of those refined products, US diesel prices on average now at a record high. Alright guys, let's go to, wow, a lot of red there. So let's see what my gainers hold true here. Let's talk a little bit about Bloom Energy and Ever Pure. Both stocks rising. Bloom Energy up 9.6 percent, Ever Pure up about 1.6 percent. This is rising after S&P Dow Jones' indices said late.

Analysis

Oil prices spiked back up to just below $99 a barrel following headlines about U.S. actions against Iranian targets, which also pushed the S&P 500 to session lows, closing down roughly 45 points. September is historically the weakest month for stocks, and today saw most S&P 500 names decline, with tech being a significant laggard while energy stocks saw modest gains due to rising oil prices.

12:59
PDT

S&P 500 reached session lows due to oil price spikes.

Nelson Alliance Bernstein S&P 500 Brent crude RBC Amy Wolf Silverman Bloomberg Carol Masser Tim Stenevick Iran Karg Island US S&P 500 PRIVATE CL=F GC=F

– Geopolitical tensions are increasing market volatility.

– AI stocks show a strong correlation with U.S. equities.

– International markets are performing independently of U.S. trends.

– Healthcare and industrials are gaining traction amid uncertainty.

geopolitical riskoil price volatilityAI investment trends

▸ Full transcript

Conversation. Hope to have you back. Nelson, you head of equities over at Alliance Bernstein, counting this down to the closing bells with the S&P 500 hitting session lows on the back of the headline that sent oil futures spiking back up. A full breakdown of all of today's market action starts now. The closing bell. Bloomberg's comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the US market close starts right now. And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day. Romain Vostick here to take you through the closing bell with a global simulcast. We're joined now by Carol Masser and Tim Stenevick. Welcome to our audiences across all of our Bloomberg platforms: television, radio, our partnership with YouTube here on a day where most of the US stocks are in the red. All of the indices are in the red. And Carol Masser is looking tan as heck. Where you been, Carol? Out on the water. It's been really nice to be away. I did miss you guys and I followed from afar, but nice to be out in the fresh air in the sun, getting a little bit of vitamin D. We are glad to have you back, Carol. Thank you. Uh, you know, and I just want to know, is that maize or yellow, your suit? Ooh, wow, I like maize, I don't know what that means. Yeah, maize, you know, like corn. Oh, okay, yeah, sure. You missed me, right? I thought it was more gold. Hey, you believe what you need to believe. I like to believe. All right, okay? I'm gonna get a little bit more. Can I get away now? Get us on track. We're waiting for staff.

Analysis

The S&P 500 hit session lows following a headline that caused oil futures to spike, indicating heightened market volatility. Investors are grappling with geopolitical tensions and their impact on oil prices, which are contributing to uncertainty in the market direction.

Smart money should note the strong correlation between AI stocks and the broader U.S. equity market, suggesting that volatility in geopolitical events could disproportionately affect these sectors. Additionally, the divergence in performance between U.S. and international markets may present opportunities for diversification amidst rising volatility.

12:57
PDT

U.S. strikes on Iranian targets caused immediate market reactions.

Nelson Alliance Bernstein U.S.Iran Karg Island A.I.Asian emerging markets Korea Taiwan Europe Japan Latin America S&P 500 PRIVATE CL=F

– Oil futures spiked while the S&P 500 fell towards session lows.

– AI stocks show a strong correlation with U.S. equity markets.

– Emerging markets in Asia are also highly correlated with U.S. equities.

– European, Japanese, and Latin American markets are less affected by AI trends.

geopolitical riskmarket volatilityAI investment trends

▸ Full transcript

We can actively reduce volatility. We can go through each of those strategies in terms of how we're advising our clients. Well, let's talk about that volatility. I do just want to bring to our viewers' attention right now. We're in conversation with Nelson, head of equities over at Alliance Bernstein, a redhead crossing the Bloomberg terminal. This on U.S. officials telling Fox News that the U.S. has hit Iranian targets near Karg Island. We don't have a lot more information other than that right now, but the knee-jerk reaction was a spike in oil futures and a downward spike in the S&P 500 back towards session lows. And Nelson, this gets to this idea here without really knowing a lot of the details, the idea that these are the type of headlines that investors are going to have to contend with, you know, at least for the foreseeable future. And that creates a lot of volatility, which maybe creates what for markets? Look, I think, again, what the market, if you look at the markets today, if you look at the U.S. equity markets, you look at a basket of A.I. stocks and you look at its correlation to the U.S. equity market. That's a nearly perfect correlation running at about 0.9. If you look at Asian emerging markets, also very high correlation given what we know about Korea and Taiwan. But there are other places across the market where you haven't seen that type of correlation: Europe, Japan, even Latin America. You've seen where these markets are running independent of this A.I. trade. And so I think as this volatility spikes up, we can look for these natural places of diversification that can give you both returns and reduce your volatility.

Analysis

U.S. officials reported strikes on Iranian targets near Karg Island, leading to a spike in oil futures and a drop in the S&P 500. This highlights the ongoing volatility investors face due to geopolitical tensions, which could impact market stability in the near term.

The correlation between AI stocks and U.S. equity markets remains strong, suggesting that fluctuations in geopolitical events could disproportionately affect tech-heavy indices. However, markets in Europe, Japan, and Latin America are showing independence from this trend, indicating potential diversification opportunities for investors seeking to mitigate risk amidst rising volatility.

12:55
PDT

Healthcare and industrial sectors are currently performing well.

Westwood BlackRock Dallas Nelson Alliance Bernstein Brent crude AI RBC DXY

– Concerns are rising about the slowing growth rate of AI-related capital expenditures.

– Market confidence is shifting as hyperscaler investments slow down.

– The rate of growth for capital expenditures has been around 70% over the last three years.

– Investors should consider the implications of potentially baked-in valuations for AI-related stocks.

AI investment trendsmarket broadeningeconomic sensitivity

▸ Full transcript

Particularly with all of the economic and macroeconomic issues kind of out there, because a lot of those stocks are probably a little bit more economically sensitive. Yeah, we've been starting to see that change. I'd say really over the last six weeks, what we've seen is a broadening of the market. And we've seen other themes start to play out. You see healthcare really getting a bid, but we also see other places in the market, industrials, they've been doing well. And what I would say is just as this uncertainty around are these hyperscalers going to continue to invest in that CapEx and we're seeing the rate of investments start to slow down and that actually has given software a bit because more confidence has been around, you know, whether or not how quickly we're gonna get to that disruption. Well, I guess at this idea too we talk about how long that goes on. I mean most forecasts now are basically saying basically about a trillion dollars in AI-related CapEx each year, at least through 2030. That seems to be kind of the base case amongst a lot. Give or take, you know, a couple hundred billion here or there. If that is so true, my question is, hasn't it already been baked into a lot of these stock prices? Or can there be more upside, assuming that that CapEx number does not rise any further than those estimates? I guess when we look at our forecast for continued CapEx spending or the rate of growth of CapEx, we're already getting into that second derivative where the rate of growth is slowing down. It's been running for the last three years at about 70% growth. Our fourth.

Analysis

The market is experiencing a broadening trend, with healthcare and industrials gaining traction amid economic uncertainties. Despite a projected trillion dollars in AI-related capital expenditures annually through 2030, concerns about the slowing rate of investment growth could impact stock valuations.

12:53
PDT

Geopolitical issues and inflation are becoming dominant concerns for investors.

Nelson Alliance Bernstein AI oil inflation geopolitical risks Labor Day CL=F

– Recent earnings seasons have been resilient, supporting stock market highs.

– Growth has been primarily driven by AI-related capital expenditures.

– Investor anxiety is rising due to uncertainty in interest rates and oil prices.

– The market's future direction may hinge on the resolution of geopolitical risks.

geopolitical risksAI investmentmarket uncertainty

▸ Full transcript

Nelson, head of equities over at Alliance Bernstein, joins us here in studio to count us down to the closing bells. Nelson, great to see you. It's kind of, I guess, apropos that I would come back after the Labor Day holiday and all of a sudden all of this hits us at once. And I guess the question starts with this idea of resiliency. That's right. You look at the first seven, eight months of this year, all of the things we're about to talk about for the next three and a half months or so, we've been talking about all year long. That's right. A couple of earnings seasons that were, if not resilient, spectacular, and that really did put a floor underneath stocks and helped us get to record highs. Can that still be the case going forward, or are some of these geopolitical issues, interest rate issues, and inflation issues going to become more dominant? Yeah, look, it's really interesting. When we started the year, one of the things we talked about was really the three scarcities that we have: the scarcity of growth, scarcity of capital, scarcity of certainty. I think the last two have really played out. And especially today, as you're talking about what the tariffs and not understanding when these geopolitical risks are going to end and raising oil prices, that's certainly raising investor worries about uncertainty in terms of direction of rates and direction of inflation. Growth has been surprising to the upside. But I think one of the things that we've come to realize is a lot of that growth was really driven by this narrative around AI capex. And actually, that's what the market rewarded. And when you see a lot of the earnings rewards, it's really interesting. You see the market returns. The market really.

Analysis

The market is facing significant challenges as geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns rise, potentially overshadowing earlier growth driven by AI capital expenditures. Despite a resilient earnings season that supported record highs, uncertainty around interest rates and oil prices is creating investor anxiety.

Smart money should note that while growth has been surprising, it has largely been fueled by AI narratives, which may not sustain if geopolitical risks escalate. The interplay between growth, capital scarcity, and uncertainty will be crucial in determining market direction in the coming months.

12:51
PDT

Dow down over 1%

Amy Wolf Silverman RBC Dow S&P 500 Brent crude S&P 500 CL=F

– S&P 500 down 0.5%

– Brent crude at $98.69, peaked at $100

– Geopolitical and trade concerns resurfacing

– Market volatility expected to continue

oil market volatilitygeopolitical riskseconomic uncertainty

▸ Full transcript

Seasonally in September, Amy Wolf Silverman over at RBC kicking us off to the close just about 50 minutes ago here on a holiday short week, I guess the unofficial end of summer as a lot of people now have to get back to work. More importantly, a lot of investors now have to confront a lot of the big catalysts out there that could bat stocks around in any direction. Today's direction, though, is decidedly to the downside with the Dow down by more than a percentage point, the S&P 500 down by half a percentage point. But a lot of talk right now about what we're seeing in the oil markets. Brent crude right now at 98.69, at one point it traded up at about a hundred bucks a barrel. And of course, geopolitical and trade concerns are back at the forefront.

Analysis

The market is experiencing a downturn, with the Dow down over a percentage point and the S&P 500 down by half a percentage point. Oil prices are also in focus, with Brent crude trading at 98.69 after briefly reaching around $100 per barrel, amid renewed geopolitical and trade concerns.

Investors should note that the current market volatility is influenced by external factors, particularly in the oil sector, which could have broader implications for inflation and economic stability. The shift in oil prices may signal a need for strategic adjustments in energy-related investments as geopolitical tensions escalate.

12:49
PDT

Westwood's new ETF PWRX focuses on power generation infrastructure.

Bloomberg Westwood Brian Casey Texas Stock Exchange S&P New York Dallas Alliance Bernstein Bloomberg Insight Bloomberg Power Players New PRIVATE

– Texas is becoming a hub for financial services, surpassing New York in finance job growth.

– The ETF market is rapidly growing, with Westwood aiming for $1 billion in assets within a year.

– The information technology sector is currently 37% of the S&P, while utilities represent only 2%.

– Investors are encouraged to look for value creation in emerging sectors.

ETF growthTexas financial hubenergy infrastructure

▸ Full transcript

Conversations with the voices shaping the future of sports and business, where game changers connect from the boardroom to the locker room, a place for bold ideas, powerful insights, and high-impact conversations. Every sport is grounded in Bloomberg Insight. Join us, Bloomberg Power Players New York, September 10th, 2026.

Analysis

Bloomberg Power Players event scheduled for September 10th, 2026, highlights the intersection of sports and business, emphasizing bold ideas and impactful conversations. The CEO of Westwood, Brian Casey, discusses the launch of a new power-related ETF, PWRX, on the Texas Stock Exchange, indicating a strategic shift towards Texas for financial services.

12:47
PDT

Westwood aims for $1 billion in ETF assets within a year.

Westwood Brian Casey Texas Stock Exchange PWRX BlackRock Dallas New York NYSE ETF CEO Bloomberg Style Manual Alliance Bernstein PRIVATE DXY

– Texas is becoming a significant financial services hub.

– PWRX ETF launch targets the energy sector.

– Westwood's ETF portfolio is currently over $400 million.

– Major financial firms are relocating to Dallas.

ETF growthTexas financial hubenergy sector investment

▸ Full transcript

I mean your own stock Westwood trades on the NYSE. Would you ever consider moving that to Texas if this maybe works out? Okay, all right. That's a great non-answer. In all seriousness though, I mean your ETF book now, I think you're over $400 million or something like that. You know, obviously that's growth. I was surrounding error for a company like BlackRock. What is your ambition for the ETF side of this business? Well, it is one of the fastest growing parts of the asset management business and we are going to continue to invest in it. We've made some key hires and we would hope to be a billion dollars in our ETF portfolio a year from now. Do you think all of this will continue to be based in Texas? I mean, there have been a lot of stats saying there are more finance jobs in Texas now than there are in New York. That is true. Yeah. And in fact, everything around us is absolutely blowing up. We have all the major financial services companies that are moving to Dallas. You know, if you read Lawyer's Poker back in the day, you know, if you got assigned equities in Dallas, that was like you had been banished. And now people actually want to move to Dallas. You know when I got hired here, my boss gave me two books. It was Bloomberg Style Manual and Lawyer's Poker. And then a theme. It was actually three books. Brian, great to have you. Brian Casey there, the CEO of Westwood. Going to launch next week a new power-related ETF, PWRX on the Texas Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, back here in New York, we count you down to the closing bells. Nelson, you head of equities at Alliance Bernstein. Join us after the break.

Analysis

Westwood's CEO, Brian Casey, indicated ambitions to grow their ETF portfolio to a billion dollars within a year, highlighting the rapid growth of this segment in asset management. The shift of financial services to Texas is notable, with more finance jobs now reported in Texas than in New York, signaling a potential long-term trend in the industry.

Smart money should recognize the strategic importance of Texas as a burgeoning financial hub, which could influence investment decisions and talent acquisition in the sector. Additionally, the launch of the new power-related ETF, PWRX, on the Texas Stock Exchange reflects a targeted approach to capitalize on emerging energy market opportunities.

12:45
PDT

Westwood is listing on the Texas Stock Exchange to align with its energy management strategy.

Westwood Brian Casey Texas Stock Exchange Ticker PWRX S&P CEO PWRX ETF AI Hey Brian New York Why Texas PWRX

– Ticker PWRX aims to capitalize on the value created by expanding AI compute power.

– The firm believes energy infrastructure will see significant value creation in the next decade.

– Information technology currently dominates the S&P, while utilities remain a minor segment.

– Westwood's strategy reflects a shift towards sectors with anticipated growth.

energy infrastructureAI technologyETF investment strategy

▸ Full transcript

Brian Casey, the CEO of Westwood, joins us right now. Hey Brian. Hey, how are you? You could have listed this here in New York. Why Texas? I mean, that stock exchange has only been around for a couple of months. Well, it is. It really aligns with our values in Texas. Our energy team is in Houston, and they manage about three and a half billion of public energy securities, and it just made a lot of sense for us to try the Texas Stock Exchange. We have other ETFs that are on the New York Stock Exchange and the NASDAQ, so we thought we'd try the Texas Stock Exchange. What can an investor get from Ticker PWRX that they couldn't get from a conventional energy or utilities ETF? Well, it's an interesting concept because I think for the last three years, the market has really been trying to figure out who can make the fastest chip. And every time you add AI compute power, it drags a lot of things behind it. So all of the infrastructure, all of the stuff that is needed to generate power is where we think there is a lot of value that will be created over the next decade. Well, I'm curious, has your team actually seen this pricing in the market for some of this stuff now that can sort of be either captured or exploited in some way by the ETF? Yeah, well, I think the information technology is about 37% of the S&P right now. And if you look down at utilities, which is only a small portion of what we'll have in this portfolio, that's 2%. So usually the index is telling you where value has been created, and we want to invest where we think value will be created. Do you expect any?

Analysis

Westwood's CEO Brian Casey announced their decision to list on the Texas Stock Exchange, aligning with their values and energy management strategy. The firm aims to leverage the growing value in energy infrastructure as AI compute power expands, positioning their ETF, Ticker PWRX, to capture this trend.

Investors should note that while traditional utilities represent a small portion of the S&P, Westwood is focusing on sectors where they anticipate significant value creation over the next decade. This strategic pivot towards energy infrastructure amidst the AI boom could yield substantial returns as the market evolves.

12:43
PDT

Bloomberg Power Players event scheduled for September 10th, 2026.

Bloomberg New York September 10th, 2026 Bloomberg Insight Bloomberg Power Players New PRIVATE

– Focus on the intersection of sports and business.

– Key topics include economy, media, trade, and geopolitics.

– Event aims to foster bold ideas and powerful insights.

– Potential for emerging trends that could influence investment strategies.

sports business integrationgeopolitical impactmedia trends

▸ Full transcript

The film is set in tightrope conversations with the voices shaping the future of sports and business, where game changers connect from the boardroom to the locker room, a place for bold ideas, powerful insights, and high-impact conversations. Every sport is grounded in Bloomberg Insight. Join us, Bloomberg Power Players New York, September 10th, 2026. He touches on everything that we care about: the economy, media and information, markets, trade, and geopolitics, which changes everything.

Analysis

The upcoming Bloomberg Power Players event on September 10th, 2026, will focus on the intersection of sports and business, highlighting key conversations that shape the future of these sectors. This gathering aims to address critical issues such as the economy, media, trade, and geopolitics, which are increasingly interconnected and influential in today's market landscape.

Smart investors should note the emphasis on the evolving dynamics between sports and business, as these sectors are becoming more intertwined. The discussions at this event could reveal emerging trends and opportunities that may impact investment strategies across various industries.

12:41
PDT

Marquis Brands acquires Roots, emphasizing authenticity and consumer loyalty.

Marquis Brands Keith Golden Roots Martha Stewart Roberto Cavalli BCBG Joe Membran Skechers Dein Lieblingsspiel

– The company adopts an asset-light model to mitigate geopolitical risks.

– Strong e-commerce performance is noted across global markets.

– Partnerships with local operators are key to brand expansion.

– Martha Stewart's brand continues to grow internationally, with new retail stores opening.

brand managemente-commerce growthasset-light model

▸ Full transcript

Ein bisschen mehr nach dem Verbrechen. Das ist Wunder. Dein Lieblingsspiel. Punkte verbenden. Denn für dich sind Daten nicht einfach nur Daten. Sie sind das große Ganze nur gut getan. Das ist für die, die in allem ein Muster erkennen. Das ist, für die Kraft der Finanz. Das ist das Schwerste, das du mit Geld wirst. Was sollst du eigentlich machen? Ist das nur für die richen? Wie wirst du es zu gewinnen? Wir bekommen viele smarte Leute zusammen. Wir analysieren alle die Statue. Wir machen die Forschung. Wir holen alle das zusammen, um zu denken, was heute der beste Investition ist, der Geld in den Zukunft machen wird. Investieren wie die Zukunft, die sie sehen.

Analysis

Marquis Brands, led by CEO Keith Golden, is expanding its portfolio with the acquisition of Roots, a brand known for its authenticity and consumer loyalty. This move is part of a broader strategy to leverage partnerships and an asset-light model to navigate geopolitical challenges and expand into new markets.

The focus on brand management and operational partnerships positions Marquis to thrive in a fragmented media landscape. The emphasis on e-commerce and international growth, particularly for brands like Martha Stewart and Roberto Cavalli, highlights a shift towards a more flexible and resilient business model.

12:38
PDT

Martha Stewart brand is growing rapidly internationally.

Marquis Brands Keith Golden Martha Stewart Roberto Cavalli Skechers iHeart Netflix TV So Martha And Martha North America Martha Stewart Collection DXY

– Marquis Brands has opened retail stores in Dubai for Martha Stewart.

– The company employs a flexible brand management model.

– Roberto Cavalli acquisition addresses operational issues, not desirability.

– Partnerships are key to navigating geopolitical and tariff challenges.

brand managementinternational expansionpartnership strategy

▸ Full transcript

An iconic person. And we should point out someone who's in her 80s and probably won't be here. How do you sort of ensure that you can carry that brand on for another 20, 30, 40 years after she's presumably gone? So Martha is an incredible partner. She's very much with us. She's the image of health. I just left her at her office where she was- Can you tell her to come on the show? Leave in your room for people. Oh, I love her. But you can come with me at four o'clock. We're going down to a big event downtown. We've now announced our podcast with Netflix. So she has a thriving podcast with iHeart that now is a podcast available on Netflix. So please watch it. I'm happy to put in a good word and do my best. But so one, Martha's going to be with us for a really long time. No one works harder than Martha. And Martha sees around corners better than anyone I know. But the brand is a billion dollar plus brand. The brand is growing faster internationally than it ever has before in its life. We opened the first retail stores in the history of that brand in Dubai. With our partner, Skechers, now the second largest footwear brand in North America, third largest in the world, we're in over 40 countries with the Martha Stewart Collection, which is their top performing capsule collection. So that brand is wanted by consumers around the world. Our Martha Stewart TV shows are on five continents and with the top performers on the platforms. Well, I can tell you another question about how you leverage these brands beyond whatever the initial product was. Obviously, Martha Stewart has been a master that long before she came under the marquee umbrella, But then I look at something like Cavalli, some of the real estate-type partnerships that you've had. Is that kind of the future of?

Analysis

Marquis Brands is experiencing significant growth, particularly with the Martha Stewart brand, which is expanding internationally and has opened its first retail stores in Dubai. The company is leveraging partnerships and a flexible brand management model to navigate geopolitical challenges and operational issues in the luxury sector, particularly with brands like Roberto Cavalli.

Smart investors should note the strategic focus on timeless brands with strong consumer loyalty, as well as the potential for growth in international markets. The partnership model allows Marquis to mitigate risks associated with tariffs and operational challenges, positioning them well for future expansion.

12:36
PDT

Marquis Brands focuses on acquiring brands with strong consumer loyalty and authenticity.

Marquis Brands Roberto Cavalli BCBG Joe Membran

– The company employs a flexible operational model to adapt to market challenges.

– Roberto Cavalli's acquisition is seen as an opportunity to address operational issues rather than desirability.

– Marquis has a vast network of over 340 partners to enhance brand strategy and execution.

– The brand management model allows for expansion while mitigating risks associated with tariffs.

brand managementluxury sector resilience

▸ Full transcript

I'm curious just about the whole model. It's kind of a brand accelerator type company, Marquis, Authentic, and some of your other competitors. And I'm specifically interested in the whole Roberto Cavalli deal, because you kind of bought that right in sort of the middle of what was clearly a luxury downturn. And I've heard some of your public comments before saying that it wasn't a desirability issue; it was an operational issue with the company. But on that, I mean, what do you as a company bring to the table for a brand like that that does have those operational issues? What exactly are you injecting into that? We really pride ourselves on our ability to build the healthiest ecosystem, and that requires a core operating partner. So in Cavalli, you need to be great at fashion, great at handbags, great at footwear, great at home. So we are really good; we have an incredible Rolodex. We have 340 plus partners around the world, so we take the best of the best by category, by geography, trend rate, price rate, quality, right? Bring them to bear. And then we dictate the strategy that we all adopt so that when it shows up in a retail store and merchandise together, it looks like one team did that. That is really an art that we are expert in. So we're taking it out of whatever operational channels it had, putting it in the hands of the partners with a great strategy that we're dictating from the top down. And then we're bringing the retailers the best retailers to be our partners as well. BCBG is a great example. So wonderful brand, if you had to meet a woman who hasn't had a great night in a BCBG dress. And it stands for...

Analysis

Marquis Brands is strategically acquiring timeless brands, with a focus on operational excellence to revitalize brands like Roberto Cavalli amidst a luxury downturn. Their model emphasizes flexibility and partnership, allowing them to navigate geopolitical challenges while expanding brand presence globally.

The emphasis on a brand accelerator model highlights the importance of operational partnerships and strategic direction in enhancing brand performance. This approach may insulate Marquis from broader market volatility, suggesting a resilient investment strategy in the luxury sector.

12:34
PDT

Brand management model accounts for over $60 billion in retail sales.

Roots Joe Membran Canada Taiwan JMA

– Roots acquisition aims to leverage its Canadian heritage while expanding globally.

– Focus on partnerships allows for flexibility in navigating tariffs.

– E-commerce sales are a significant growth driver for the brand.

– Asset-light model reduces exposure to traditional retail risks.

tariff impactbrand managementglobal expansion

▸ Full transcript

And having to deal with whatever the heck is going on with the guards to trade and tariffs? Great question. And this is the beauty of our model. We're a leader in the brand management space, which together with our peers, we account for over 60 billion in retail sales and growing quickly. Our model is so flexible. It really thrives in a complicated, geopolitically, media fragmented world. So we didn't take over the brand. We did it in partnership with a Canadian operator. So the brand is still rooted in Canada. Stay rooted in Canada with incredible partner, Joe Membran, who will grow it and nurture it, and the brand will always stand for Canada, and then that's where we come in and do what we do best, which is to help expand it by category and by geography around the world. So that means a more asset-light model, right? You're more focusing on the licensing versus those brick-and-mortar stores. So does that insulate you from the tariffs that Romain's asking about? So we can't stick our head in the sand in it, right? We want all of our partners to thrive. We consider ourselves the conductor of ecosystems. So we need the ecosystem to be well. We want stores open for each of our brands. Joe and JMA, our partner in Canada, will continue to keep their 100 plus stores in Canada open. Our partners in Taiwan will continue to keep their 100 plus stores open there. But they're on the front lines dealing with those tariff issues and we're able to flex the model and bring in other partners as dictated by whatever's happening in the world. Well, when we think about tariffs as a global picture, I know you've spoken about expanding routes. So where's next? What's the next market and what's your realistic timeline when you're dealing with some of these headwinds?

Analysis

The brand management model is thriving in a complex geopolitical landscape, with a focus on flexibility and partnerships to navigate challenges like tariffs. The acquisition of Roots is positioned as a strategic move to leverage its strong Canadian presence while expanding globally through an asset-light model.

Smart investors should note that the emphasis on partnerships and licensing can mitigate risks associated with tariffs and market fluctuations. The ability to adapt and expand in various markets, especially with a strong e-commerce presence, positions the company favorably in a fragmented retail environment.

12:32
PDT

Marquis Brands has acquired Roots, a brand with strong consumer loyalty.

Marquis Brands Keith Golden Martha Stewart Roberto Cavalli Ben Sherman BCBG Roots CEO For Marquis The Roots Why Roots And Roots GC=F

– Roots is performing well in Canada and has a growing presence in the U.S. and Taiwan.

– The acquisition strategy targets timeless brands with authenticity.

– E-commerce sales are a key growth area for Roots.

– The brand's adaptability in a fragmented media world is crucial for its revival.

brand acquisitione-commerce growthconsumer loyalty

▸ Full transcript

For Marquis, whose portfolio includes Martha Stewart, Roberto Cavalli, Ben Sherman, BCBG, and quite a few others, joining us right now is the CEO of Marquis Brands, Keith Golden. Keith, great to have you here. Thanks so much, Bob. You've actually had probably one of the more consequential few months in this company. You saw three big acquisitions. The Roots deal is big, and I am curious just kind of how that sort of folds in because it seems like it's being structured in a way that may be a little bit different than the others. Why Roots? Well, there's one red thread that runs through our entire portfolio of what will soon be 24 brands, which is we acquire timeless brands, brands that come with incredible authenticity, high consumer awareness, and consumer love and permission to grow both by category and by geography. And Roots has that in spades as well as our other brands. So I view it as right up the fairway for us, and we couldn't be more excited about it. Well, give me a sense as to what the playbook is because I remember, you know, some years back, I mean, Roots was all the rage, particularly when Canada hosted the Olympics, and it was everywhere, and I know that its star has fallen a little bit. Is this sort of a revival story, or is there already enough of a customer base there? We're coming out of the gate. This is already pretty accretive. No, I mean, Roots is a wonderfully healthy business today, thriving in Canada, has a nice American business, a wonderful Taiwanese business, and if you look at the e-commerce sales globally, great permission in other markets around the world. Maybe even a little less active in America, so you might see less of it in a fragmented media world, but it's thriving.

Analysis

Marquis Brands CEO Keith Golden discussed the recent acquisition of Roots, emphasizing its strong brand authenticity and consumer loyalty. He noted that Roots is thriving in Canada and has a solid presence in the U.S. and Taiwan, indicating a healthy business outlook despite its past challenges.

The acquisition strategy focuses on timeless brands with high consumer awareness, suggesting a potential for growth in both existing and new markets. Smart investors should note the emphasis on e-commerce sales and the brand's ability to adapt in a fragmented media landscape, which could signal future expansion opportunities.

12:30
PDT

Apple's price target increased to $304 ahead of new product launch.

Apple Moth at Nathus Lululemon Al O Peloton Macy's Guggenheim

– Lululemon faces brand saturation issues as consumer preferences shift.

– Off-price retailers are generally outperforming traditional retailers.

– Macy's maintains significant revenue despite retail challenges.

– Market share dynamics are critical in the current retail environment.

retail dynamicsbrand saturationconsumer preferencesmarket share

▸ Full transcript

How do you know what to choose? We get a lot of smart people together. We're analyzing all of the data. We're doing research. And we're pulling all that together to think about what would be the best investment today that will make money in the future. Invest like the future is watching. It touches on everything that we care about: the economy, media and information, markets, freight, and transportation, markets, trade, and geopolitics.

Analysis

Moth at Nathus raised its price target for Apple to $304 ahead of the foldable iPhone launch, despite signaling a potential slowdown in computer trends after ten quarters of growth. Lululemon's recent struggles highlight the risks of brand saturation, as consumers shift preferences towards competitors like Al O, indicating a changing landscape in retail dynamics.

The retail sector is experiencing a dichotomy, with off-price retailers generally performing well while others falter. Macy's, despite challenges, still boasts over $20 billion in revenue, suggesting resilience in its business model amidst evolving consumer behaviors.

12:26
PDT

Off-price retailers are performing well, but not uniformly across the sector.

Macy's Mar-Max Burlington Ross Stores Bloomberg Simi and Siegel Guggenheim COVID

– Macy's continues to generate significant revenue despite market challenges.

– Consumer trade-down behavior is influencing retail dynamics.

– Market share dynamics are critical in the current retail environment.

– There is a noticeable divergence in performance among retailers.

retail dynamicsconsumer behaviormarket share

▸ Full transcript

Consumer ladder, but for off-price it seems to just keep going. So that's a great question. I think what's amazing is retail is so easily accessible for us, right? I mean, you guys talk about very smart things all day, I talk about clothing all day. And so the reality is it becomes so accessible, but it's not necessarily, sometimes that makes the stories too easy to grab onto. I will tell you there are companies winning and losing at every strata of the income segment, and there's companies losing at everyone. And so off-price has been doing great, but not all of them. There's a dichotomy happening right now. You watch Ross Stores sell more units, you watch Mar-Max and Burlington not. And so I think what's important here is there is certainly the notion of trade-down. We are watching off-price generally as like the leave to win in any environment. And we've had a lot of really fun conversations about this. Yeah. But I think what is important is you have to realize in a real world in COVID, there were winners, everyone clustered, everyone lost and everyone won. In a real environment, it's market share takers, it's market share givers. And that's what you want to see. We only have about a minute left, but we have to talk about Macy's. I mean, it seemed like the last couple of quarters, they were kind of getting things back on track. You were seeing pretty decent same-store sales growth. A lot of discussion about where do department stores even fit in the current retail landscape. What are your expectations? So first of all, we only have a minute left. Either you're shortening my time or I'm not living up to the expectations. No, you always live up to our expectations. So there's a clock. What I would say is, I think it's the same. I think they're both connecting questions. You have a company like Macy's, which by the way, still despite all the negativity has over $20 billion in revenue. Macy sells a lot of things to a lot of people. I think when you have something like...

Analysis

Retail dynamics are shifting, with off-price retailers gaining traction while traditional department stores like Macy's face challenges. The market is witnessing a trade-down effect, where consumers are opting for lower-priced options amidst economic uncertainty.

Macy's, despite its revenue of over $20 billion, is navigating a complex retail landscape where market share dynamics are crucial. The performance of off-price retailers indicates a bifurcation in consumer spending, suggesting that not all segments are equally resilient in the current environment.

12:24
PDT

Lululemon faces brand saturation issues.

Lululemon Al O Peloton Apple Macy's Guggenheim AAPL DXY

– Consumer preference is shifting towards competitors.

– Market cap growth can lead to loss of uniqueness.

– Retail sector shows mixed performance ahead of Macy's earnings.

– Analysts are cautious about future growth trends.

brand saturationconsumer trendsretail performance

▸ Full transcript

But it does flag a potential slowdown in computer trends after 10 quarters of growth. Those shares are on a five-week, 24% slide, including 1.2% today. We do want to stick in the retail space and look ahead to Macy's, the department store set to report earnings before the bell on Thursday. One of the last retailers to report in a season marked with winners and losers in that space. Simi and Siegel, senior analysts of retail and e-commerce at Guggenheim, joins us right now. And before we get to Macy's, I do want to start with the loser. I was off when Lululemon reported, but woof, what the heck is going on there? So good to see you. As you and I talked about this, there are brands that get too large. They're good brands. It's not to say it's a bad brand, but I told you, my team had done that work, three to four billion dollars, you stretch above it, you stop being special, you stop being special, ultimately, you're gonna see pressure. I think that's what we're seeing. What gets them special? And I was just, maybe this is just a little bit of a, you know, recency bias, but I was walking down the street today and it seemed like every woman I saw had on Al O. And it felt like, you know, a few years ago, they would always be Lululemon. Hey, we've just moved on to the next thing. Well, just to be clear, you were walking down the street in Manhattan. I was. Not in random city across the random world. Like there's a lot of places. I think that's the problem. I think we think about these bubbles. You talked about Peloton. By the way, I haven't seen Peloton and Apple back to back in a very long time. That used to be something. The story with Peloton was the same story. We saw the same van, five vans down every street. The problem was they were down our streets and not every street. And so I think there's that problem where you have to account for the fact that when you and I see things around here, it's very helpful and it's very...

Analysis

Lululemon's recent performance indicates a potential brand saturation, as it struggles to maintain its appeal after reaching a market cap of three to four billion dollars. Analysts suggest that as brands grow too large, they risk losing their uniqueness, which could lead to declining sales and market presence.

The shift in consumer preference towards competitors like Al O highlights the importance of brand perception and market positioning. Smart money should consider the implications of brand fatigue and the need for innovation in maintaining consumer loyalty in a crowded retail landscape.

12:22
PDT

Canada's tariffs range from 15% to 50% on U.S. goods.

Canada U.S.Mark Carney Andrew DeCaprio Canadian Chamber of Commerce China India Trans Mountain Pipeline ETF IQ Bloomberg Power Players New York PRIVATE AAPL DXY

– Doubling of steel tariffs to 50% indicates escalating trade tensions.

– Potential 30% drop in Canadian exports to the U.S. could impact GDP.

– Canada is diversifying export markets to Asia and Europe.

– Two-thirds of Canadian exporters rely exclusively on the U.S. market.

trade tensionsexport diversification

▸ Full transcript

Bloomberg Power Players returns to New York. Powered by Bloomberg's award-winning journalists, front row conversations with the voices shaping the future of sports and business where game changers connect from the board room to the locker room, a place for bold ideas, powerful insights, and high-impact conversations. Every sport grounded in Bloomberg Insight. Join us, Bloomberg Power Players New York September 10th, 2026. Trade live every weekday. Good morning. Good morning. This is Bloomberg surveillance. Welcome back to the opening trade. It's Bloomberg Money. This is the Asia trade. This is Wall Street Week. Welcome to Balance of Power. You're watching Bloomberg Deal. Welcome to Bloomberg This Weekend. This is Bloomberg Television. It's a multi-trillion dollar industry. We'll show you what's happening in ETFs like no one else. ETF IQ Mondays on Bloomberg. Time now for our top calls. Calls the big movers on the back of analyst recommendations. Let's start off with the Big Apple. Moth at Nathus and boosting its price target to $304, up from $270 ahead of the company's foldable iPhone launch tomorrow. The phone is full.

Analysis

Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of U.S. products, doubling the tax on steel goods to 50%. This escalation in trade tensions could lead to a 30% drop in Canadian exports to the U.S. and risk up to 4% of Canada's GDP if negotiations do not resume soon.

The Canadian government is focusing on stability and confidence to attract global investors, while also seeking to diversify its export markets beyond the U.S. This strategy may mitigate some economic pain, but the reliance on U.S. exports remains significant, with two-thirds of Canadian businesses exporting solely to the U.S.

12:20
PDT

Canada's tariffs range from 15% to 50% on U.S. goods.

Canada U.S.Andrew DeCaprio Canadian Chamber of Commerce Macy's Department of Transportation USTR TV CEO Treasury Secretary Andrew De Canadian Chamber USDCNH PRIVATE

– Potential 30% drop in Canadian exports to the U.S. modeled.

– Canada is seeking to diversify crude oil markets.

– Two-thirds of Canadian exporters rely exclusively on the U.S.

– The Canadian government is preparing for economic pain.

trade tensionstariff impactsexport diversification

▸ Full transcript

What are the red lines? We've seen the USTR on TV, the Treasury Secretary. There have been some telling signs in terms of what may be on the table there, but we do need to get back to it and hopefully we can. All right, always appreciate your candor, Andrew. And unfortunately, I guess we are going to have to talk again as this doesn't seem to be an issue that's going to be resolved anytime soon. Andrew DeCaprio, the principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, as we continue to keep our eye on the trade situation here and abroad, and headlines crossing the wire just a moment ago, this on forward with those shares now dropping to session lows after the Department of Transportation Secretary criticizes the CEO for some of its partnerships with China. All right, when we come back, we're going to focus a little bit more on the retail sector with Macy's earnings just a couple of days away that's coming up next year on The Close, right here on Bloomberg. Your favorite game, connect points. For you, the data is not just data. They are the whole thing, well done. This is for those who recognize all the insights. This is for the craft of finance.

Analysis

Canada has imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products, raising steel tariffs to 50%, which could risk 4% of its GDP if trade relations worsen. The Canadian government aims to project stability and confidence to investors while preparing for potential economic pain ahead due to these trade tensions.

Smart money should note that Canada is diversifying its crude oil exports to markets like China and India, which could mitigate some risks from U.S. dependency. However, with two-thirds of Canadian exporters relying solely on the U.S. market, the long-term economic impact could be significant if negotiations do not resume.

12:18
PDT

Canada is preparing for potential economic pain due to U.S. trade tensions.

Canada Prime Minister U.S.Bloomberg The Prime Minister United States PRIVATE FEDFUNDS

– The government aims to project stability and confidence to attract global investors.

– Two-thirds of Canadian exporters rely solely on the U.S. market.

– Diversification efforts may not fully mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs.

– Infrastructure development is seen as key to strengthening Canada's economy.

trade tensionseconomic diversificationCanadian exportsinfrastructure development

▸ Full transcript

And I think there needs to be a realistic approach from the Canadian government to get back to the table, of course. But I think that the key message from the federal government, as I look at it, is we want to project a couple of things to investors in the global community. One is stability, that you will find stability in the Canadian market, and confidence. We had investments coming up in about a week. There are many different projects on the table. So if we can build infrastructure east-west, diversify, and build a strong economy, we can then approach these negotiations from a position of strength. But at the same time, we are going to feel some pain. The Prime Minister and his message today to Canadians is, listen, we may need to buckle up for some pain ahead to give optionality to push back against the United States. If there isn't a resolution, and we've crunched the numbers here at Bloomberg, Tyler read them at the start here, the potential hit to the Canadian economy. As you look longer term, can there be a way to sort of fill that void with stronger relationships with non-U.S. nations? Maybe some products, not all products. You know, there are 45,000 Canadian businesses that export to the United States; two-thirds of those businesses only export to the United States.

Analysis

The Canadian government is emphasizing the need for stability and confidence in the market while preparing for potential economic pain due to ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. Prime Minister's message indicates that Canada may need to endure short-term challenges to strengthen its negotiating position against the U.S.

Smart money should note that while Canada seeks to diversify its trade relationships, a significant portion of Canadian businesses still rely heavily on the U.S. market. This dependency could limit the effectiveness of diversification efforts and prolong economic vulnerabilities amidst trade disputes.

12:16
PDT

Canada imposes retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods.

Canada U.S.Prime Minister Mark Carney Trans Mountain Pipeline China India Now Canada United States USDCNH GC=F META CL=F

– Potential 30% drop in Canadian exports to the U.S.

– Canada diversifying crude oil exports to Asia and Europe.

– Auto sector remains highly integrated and vulnerable.

– Record prices in precious metals benefiting Canada.

trade tensionsexport diversificationcommodity prices

▸ Full transcript

When steel and aluminum tariffs were imposed on most countries, many countries retaliated. Now Canada seems to be one of the outliers and is now in focus for the President. The U.S. is the largest buyer of Canadian crude. We have reporting that Canada is courting other export markets when it comes to this, including China and India. I am curious if diversifying away from the U.S. economy sort of serves as another point of retaliation in a way? Well, you rightly point out that we are a significant supply of crude oil to the U.S. market. We've seen with the Trans Mountain Pipeline expansion off the west coast of Canada, we've been able to sell our crude oil and even natural gas to other markets in Asia and Europe. There is significant demand for our natural resources. So we've seen a lot of success in that. Of course, we want to continue to sell to the United States as well. Some products are not as easily diversifiable, right? Autos is a little bit more integrated and is at the center of this trade war. We've seen some success on aluminum and of course precious metals with gold being at record prices. Canada has been able to benefit from that as well. So we're not having a very strong economic year, but we've been chugging along and we're seeing some green shoots that allow us to buffer some of this blow from the U.S.

Analysis

Canada is retaliating against U.S. tariffs by imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on hundreds of U.S. products, including doubling the tax on steel goods. This escalation in trade tensions could lead to significant economic repercussions for Canada, with potential exports to the U.S. dropping by 30% and risking 4% of the country's GDP if relations worsen.

Smart money should note that Canada is diversifying its crude oil exports to markets like China and India, which may serve as a strategic counter to U.S. tariffs. The integration of the auto sector complicates this dynamic, but Canada is finding success in other commodities, indicating resilience amid trade challenges.

12:13
PDT

Canada imposes tariffs of 15% to 50% on U.S. goods.

Canada U.S.Mark Carney Andrew DeCapio Canadian Chamber of Commerce Bloomberg Economics GDP Andrew De Canadian Chamber Prime Minister Mark Carney Prime Minister PRIVATE DXY

– Steel tariffs increased from 25% to 50%.

– Potential 30% drop in Canadian exports to the U.S.

– 4% of Canada's GDP at risk if trade relations worsen.

– No current talks to restart U.S.-Canada trade negotiations.

trade tensionstariff impactseconomic vulnerability

▸ Full transcript

Canada is fighting back in the latest tit-for-tat on trade, imposing retaliatory tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on hundreds of U.S. products today and doubling the tax on steel goods to 50% from 25%. But what happens if the relationship gets worse? Bloomberg Economics modeled that Canada could see exports to the U.S. drop about 30 percent, and as much as 4 percent of the country's GDP could be at risk if Canada leaves the U.S. M.C.A. or Mexico raises its tariffs to match the U.S. and Canada. Joining us live is Andrew DeCapio, principal economist at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce. Andrew, thanks so much for being here. At first, we had heard from Prime Minister Mark Carney saying that maybe Canada wanted to go dollar for dollar, but then ultimately that's what happened with this retaliation. Senior U.S. officials tell me that there aren't talks right now to try to get a date on the books to restart these negotiations. So just put it into context for me. What can be the long-term sustained damage to Canada's economy if at one point we had the Prime Minister saying that this type of retaliation wasn't supposed to be economically feasible?

Analysis

Canada has retaliated against the U.S. by imposing tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on hundreds of U.S. products, doubling the tax on steel goods to 50%. This escalation could lead to a significant drop in Canadian exports to the U.S., potentially risking 4% of Canada's GDP if trade relations deteriorate further.

Smart money should note that the lack of ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Canada could exacerbate economic vulnerabilities, particularly as the Canadian economy may not be prepared for such a drastic shift in trade dynamics. The potential for a 30% drop in exports highlights the fragility of Canada's economic reliance on the U.S. market, which could lead to broader implications for sectors tied to trade.

12:11
PDT

Upcoming CPI report is critical for Fed policy direction.

RBC Capital Markets Amy Wood-Silverman FOMC CPI NASDAQ S&P Agenta GAI Die Tapp

– Equity markets may face resistance if rate hikes occur.

– Investors are looking for inexpensive hedges amid macro uncertainty.

– AI developments are influencing market sentiment and strategies.

– Current market dynamics may differ from historical patterns.

Fed policymarket volatilityhedging strategiesAI influence

▸ Full transcript

großen Unterschied machen. Das ist für die Kraft der Finanz. Als kleine Geschäftsführer brauche ich meinen Pämpfungsschaffung, um es zu funktionieren. Die Tapp-Pay-Ein-Iphone ist einfach zu nutzen. Ich kann alle Kontakte auf mein iPhone aufnehmen. Was ist das Coolste, was du mit Geld dazugehst? Was soll ich eigentlich tun? Ist das nur für dünne Menschen? Wie wissen Sie, was zu wählen? Wir haben viele smartere Leute zusammen. Wir analysieren alle die Statue. Wir machen eine Recherche. Wir holen alle das zusammen, um zu denken, was das sein soll.

Analysis

The discussion highlighted the significant macroeconomic events ahead, including the upcoming CPI report and the potential for Fed rate hikes, which could impact equity markets. There is a growing sentiment that the current market dynamics may be different this time due to the influence of AI and other macro factors, suggesting a need for protective strategies among investors.

Smart money should note the increasing interest in inexpensive hedges as clients prepare for potential volatility driven by macroeconomic catalysts. The conversation indicates a shift towards a more cautious approach, with a focus on protecting gains rather than pursuing aggressive trades.

12:09
PDT

S&P down approximately 0.5%, Brent crude near $100.

S&P Brent crude John Malkovich Amy Woo Silverman RBC Capital Markets Bloomberg FOMC CPI NFP Agenta GAI BCBG Martha Stewart AMZN

– Inflation concerns are heightened ahead of CPI report.

– Earnings season may provide a buffer for market volatility.

– Investors are looking at inexpensive downside options.

– Macro events ahead could influence market direction.

market volatilityinflation concernsearnings seasonmacro events

▸ Full transcript

To the corporate earnings picture that might actually be the buffer for all of those things that you just talked about. And do you know what I when I have these conversations with investors, the approach I take is actually not necessarily that I think this is a trade that unwinds. It's just simply that the asymmetry given how much we've gone up is very much to the left, meaning you have very inexpensive downside optionality and you've just had a stock market that's run. So it's more about protecting what you have than necessarily saying, I think this is a left tail that will occur. That said, I think what has slightly changed is you've had more policies in doubt there, essentially saying like, let's look at a moratorium or let's do a one-year hold. But these are things that are incrementally new that as you get to midterms become something that is a little bit louder. So it's the type of thing that I think is more macro correlation picking up in nature than it was before. All right, Amy, always great conversation. Amy Woo Silverman, head of derivative strategy at RBC Capital Markets kicking us off to the close here on this Tuesday afternoon when we come back, we're gonna talk to the CEO of the brand powerhouse behind BCBG, Martha Stewart, Dackeen, and quite a few others. We're gonna talk about the state of the consumer, the state of inflation, and of course the state of trade and tariffs. Plus from consumer concerns to canal transit cuts, the next administrator of the Panama Canal will join live to discuss navigating trade bottlenecks and the geopolitical landscape. And a multi-generational collaboration and Amazon. We're going to catch up with Qualcomm.

Analysis

The market is experiencing volatility as the summer lull ends, with the S&P down about half a percent and Brent crude prices nearing $100 a barrel. Concerns about inflation and upcoming economic indicators, particularly the CPI report, are influencing investor sentiment and positioning ahead of the Fed's policy meeting.

12:07
PDT

Anti-AI sentiment is rising, potentially affecting market dynamics.

NASDAQ S&P CPI FOMC Israeli elections midterms Agenta GAI AI GAI NASDAQ S&P

– Upcoming macro events include CPI, FOMC, and midterm elections.

– Investors are considering hedging strategies in NASDAQ and S&P.

– The novelty of AI discussions may lead to unique market reactions.

– Volatility is expected as significant events approach.

AI sentimentmidterm electionsmarket volatilityhedging strategies

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This anti-AI sentiment that I hear more and more about, whether it be NIMBYism or I don't want this data center here, that rhetoric as you head into midterms, I think is the type of thing that's very macro in nature, but it's also very qualitative in nature, but has the ability to pick up that correlation in a way that idiosyncratic stories don't. We're starting to see that march in terms of term structure. You're starting to see a little steepness, and we're starting to see people say, 'Hey, let's look at maybe NASDAQ hedges, put spreads, or S&P. Let's pick up something when things are still relatively cheap because there's a lot of optionality around what could happen as we head into those midterms.' Well, with regards to those midterms, I mean, I feel like in the past, I'm always told that elections don't really matter. Yeah, there's some short-term knee-jerk reactions around it, but ultimately the trajectory is the same. Is there a sense among you and your team that this might actually be a little bit different given how many things are on the table this time, that probably are of a lot more consequence to markets? Yeah, and you know, look, it's one of those things where you always hate to be the person to say, 'I think this time is different.' Yeah. But it feels that way. It feels that way for several reasons. One, if you just look at the timeline of events ahead, everything from CPI to September FOMC to Israeli elections to midterms, they're meaningful macro events ahead. But two, we've never had this conversation before because AI is so new, because it is so novel. You know, you have news out there that Agenta GAI is already here. So I think things are moving very.

Analysis

The discussion highlights a growing anti-AI sentiment that could impact market dynamics as midterm elections approach, suggesting a potential shift in investor sentiment. The upcoming macro events, including CPI and the FOMC meeting, are seen as significant catalysts that could influence market behavior, particularly in relation to AI and technology stocks.

Smart money should note that the current environment is unique due to the novelty of AI discussions and the consequential nature of upcoming events. This could lead to increased volatility and opportunities for hedging strategies, particularly in the NASDAQ and S&P sectors, as investors prepare for potential market shifts.

12:05
PDT

Earnings season is causing significant stock dispersion.

Bloomberg Economics CPI NFP PRIVATE

– Investors are preparing for potential volatility ahead of CPI.

– Current hedges are inexpensive, indicating cautious positioning.

– CPI report could lead to substantial market reactions.

– Inflation expectations are a key focus for traders.

market volatilityinflation expectationshedging strategies

▸ Full transcript

You think that's going to reverse? Yeah, you know, and part of that is always, when you have earning season, you have some stocks up 17%, but other stocks down 15%. You get that nice paddling duck again, right? You get that dispersion. I love your paddling duck. And that keeps, you know, it just keeps quacking. When does the paddling duck go away? Can I just get a serene swan or something going through? I have been trying to change this analogy, remain for two years, and the correlation levels just won't let me, because it just continues to be apt to describe the dispersion one that we have in the market and this correlation. But look, if we're gonna get some sort of pickup, I think this is the time of the year when it typically does happen. And then the other thing I would say is we kind of came into this September with pretty inexpensive hedges, but I do see some inkling that clients are starting to look at those hatches in particular because of the macro that's coming up. So if we zoom in on that macro, what are people buying ahead of CPI? And I'm curious about the asymmetry here. What would be more market moving? a miss or a beat come Friday, Bloomberg Economics right now, 0.4% for headline inflation, 0.2% for core. Yeah, so it's interesting. The first thing I would say is prior to NFP, when you looked at the break events that options were pricing, it was basically pricing NFP as sort of a nothing burger in the sense that the average implied move around that was actually pretty average, but it was always pricing CPI as more of a big deal. So to get back to your question, I actually what I think it is, is if either extreme happens outside of that normal straddle breakeven pricing, then you're going to get.

Analysis

The market is experiencing significant dispersion in stock performance as earnings season progresses, with some stocks up 17% while others are down 15%. This volatility is expected to continue, especially with the upcoming CPI report, which could lead to further market movement depending on whether inflation beats or misses expectations.

Smart money should note that the current hedging strategies are relatively inexpensive, indicating that investors are preparing for potential volatility. The focus on CPI suggests that any deviation from expected inflation rates could trigger substantial market reactions, highlighting the importance of macroeconomic indicators in current trading strategies.

12:03
PDT

Inflationary pressures are rising with record diesel prices.

Federal Reserve Consumer Price Index diesel crude oil FOMC US RBC Last Friday Amy Wood Capital Markets FEDFUNDS

– Upcoming CPI report will influence Fed's rate decisions.

– Strong payroll data suggests potential rate hikes.

– Equities may face resistance amid macroeconomic challenges.

– Earnings performance will be crucial for market direction.

inflationary pressuresFed policyenergy pricesequity market volatility

▸ Full transcript

As well as added inflationary pressures. And I do say added because let's face it, those concerns were already out there. And well, they're gonna get another official read on those inflationary pressures this Friday. Consumer price index print that will determine whether the FOMC hikes or holds in September. Last Friday, strong payrolls report, reinforcing that sense that the Fed rates, they're just gonna have to go up when we get to next week's policy meeting, particularly amid that energy price pass through with average diesel prices at US pumps at a record $5.85 a gallon and print crude now back towards $100 a barrel again. Once a Fed moves, if it goes, then the market's immediately gonna turn its attention to is a series of hikes, how many hikes. And that's when you do potentially get some resistance for equities. Now, the earning story is still gonna be key. If earnings is strong, the macro backdrop is constructive, then we think equities can at least get beyond these challenges ahead but we do think that the next couple of months are likely to be pretty rocky with only modest gains to be heard for the rest of the year. Let's kick things off with Amy Wood-Silverman, head of derivative strategy at RBC Capital Markets, and Amy this gets to the idea of exactly how folks are trying to position heading into the next few weeks. Yeah look you know we kind of came into the summer lots of good news and we're a little bit in an idiosyncratic vacuum right now. A lot of macro catalysts ahead. So far if you hear the headlines you were just speaking of.

Analysis

Inflationary pressures are intensifying, with diesel prices hitting a record $5.85 per gallon and crude oil nearing $100 a barrel. The upcoming Consumer Price Index report will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, with expectations leaning towards hikes due to strong payroll data.

Smart money should note that while earnings remain a key focus, the macroeconomic backdrop is becoming increasingly challenging, suggesting that equities may face resistance in the coming months. The market's reaction to the Fed's decisions will be critical, as any series of rate hikes could lead to volatility and modest gains for the rest of the year.

12:01
PDT

S&P down approximately 0.5% amid volatility.

S&P Brent crude John Malkovich Bloomberg Tyler Kendall Romain Bostic TV US AI From Studio New York PRIVATE S&P

– Brent crude prices settled below $99 after nearing $100.

– Concerns about market catalysts are increasing.

– S&P remains 1% below record high, indicating resistance.

– Summer volatility is expected to impact market dynamics.

market volatilityoil pricesAI investmentsgeopolitical risks

▸ Full transcript

If you're sticking on TV, the close starts now. Bringing you up to the minute geopolitical news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Tyler Kendall in Geneva, Switzerland, and this is Bloomberg. The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. This is the close. Summer is officially over, but the volatility of seasonality, well, that's officially here. From Studio 2 here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York, I'm Romain Bostic. And I'm Tyler Kendall. We're kicking you off to the closing bell here in the US. And we start off with a somewhat volatile day, even if the price action does look a bit muted. The summer lull is over in this holiday, short and weak. And a lot of concerns right now about the catalyst that could actually battle this market around. The S&P down fractionally on the day, by about a half a percent, Brent crude prices, flirting at one point on the day with 100 bucks a barrel now settling in right below 99 and then keep an eye on what's been going on with some of the auto makers in a big bid right now to the AI trade, particularly when it comes to core weave. We do want to start with that last point because a show me the money earnings period did just that and it helped to keep a floor underneath this stock market. The S&P holding roughly 1% below its record high, but that ceiling it's starting to drop to the point where even John Malkovich is starting to feel squeezed, breast narrows and the next record.

Analysis

The market experienced a volatile day with the S&P down about half a percent, while Brent crude prices flirted with the $100 mark before settling just below it. Concerns about market catalysts are rising as the summer lull ends, indicating potential challenges ahead for investors.

Despite the muted price action, the S&P remains roughly 1% below its record high, suggesting that while there is upward pressure, the market may be facing increasing resistance. This could signal a tightening environment for equities as investors reassess their positions in light of geopolitical and economic uncertainties.

11:58
PDT

Constellation Brands (STZ) reported weak August sales for take-home alcohol.

Constellation Brands Heineken Maggie Timonny US Open ticker STZ STZ US CEO NA World Cup On Friday Molly Smith STZ

– Higher gas and diesel prices are impacting consumer spending on alcohol.

– Heineken is focusing on non-alcoholic beer as a growth strategy.

– The World Cup boosted bar sales but not home consumption for Constellation.

– Consumer preferences are shifting, affecting traditional alcohol sales.

consumer spending pressureshift to non-alcoholic beverages

▸ Full transcript

They don't know who did it right. They are still under investigation. They say they believe there's no further intrusion in their systems, but they just have to keep rebooting everything, getting all of those systems, especially the shipment and delivery ones, running again. Welcome to twenty-six, everybody. Okay, maybe we all need a drink. Nice. Well done. There's your segue. Well, the problem for Constellation Brands (ticker STZ) is not enough talking at the Barclays consumer conference today. They said the sales for the World Cup were great in bars, not so great for take-home. This is the company that distributes Corona and Modelo in the US. They said the whole month of August was pretty lackluster. Was the language their consumers are their family? So no major house parties and like, is that what they expected? And I guess it didn't happen? Well, the money that would go to those house parties is going to higher gas prices, higher diesel prices. There's just a lot of pressure on consumers. It's been the case for alcohol for a while now, but the war in Iran is piling on more pressure. On Friday, Carol, Molly Smith, and I spoke to Maggie Timonny. She's the US CEO of Heineken. She came on at the top of our program from the US Open. Heineken, a major sponsor of the US Open, has been doing this for more than 30 years. All Maggie wanted to talk about was non-alcoholic beer. She brought non-alcoholic beer. Exclusive like the conversation was like exclusively about Heineken NA, or Heineken 00 as they call it, they're doing a big part.

Analysis

Constellation Brands (STZ) reported disappointing sales figures for August, particularly in take-home alcohol, attributing the decline to higher gas prices and consumer pressure. The company's performance during the World Cup was strong in bars but failed to translate to home consumption, indicating a shift in consumer spending habits.

The focus on non-alcoholic beer by Heineken's US CEO suggests a strategic pivot in response to changing consumer preferences, which could impact traditional alcohol sales. This trend may signal a broader market shift that investors should monitor, particularly in the beverage sector where consumer spending is under pressure.

11:56
PDT

Qualcomm stock rose 2.9% following Amazon partnership.

Qualcomm Amazon Amazon Web Services Matthew BSX AI AMZN BSX DXY

– Amazon can buy up to $4 billion in Qualcomm stock.

– Deal focuses on custom AI semiconductors for AWS.

– Qualcomm diversifying beyond smartphone market.

– Stock volatility indicates strong market interest.

AI semiconductor growthtech partnershipsstock financing strategies

▸ Full transcript

Now after they signed Amazon up as a customer for their effort to expand into data center gear, there are several elements of that deal. The notable ones are that they're going to develop custom AI semiconductors for Amazon Web Services, and in return, Amazon gets the right to buy up to four billion dollars of Qualcomm stock. So this company has been trying to expand out of the smartphone market, which is the stock. You mean stock means chips or stock means stock? No, stock means Amazon can buy Qualcomm stock in addition to these chips. So that draws comparisons to some of these circular financing deals, but actually is a pretty common playbook for Amazon. They've done this with their suppliers in the logistics business as well, so this is a real vote of confidence for that effort by Qualcomm to expand into some higher growth areas, kind of putting the game. And I think that's really the key to the game. And really supporting them as pretty wild stock was up at its highs a lot. More significant, almost nine percent at its highs today, but still with the two point nine percent gain. Where shall we go now? Can you do you have a good segue here? I don't have a good segue. Matthew has a good segue for us, so well we got next we can keep talking technology, maybe the dark side of technology with that ticker BSX down 5.7% today. We knew there was gonna be some.

Analysis

Qualcomm's stock gained 2.9% after signing a deal with Amazon to develop custom AI semiconductors for Amazon Web Services, allowing Amazon to purchase up to $4 billion in Qualcomm stock. This partnership signals Qualcomm's strategic shift from smartphones to higher-growth areas, reflecting Amazon's confidence in Qualcomm's capabilities.

The deal illustrates a common financing strategy employed by Amazon, which could indicate a trend where tech companies leverage stock purchases to solidify partnerships. Investors should note that Qualcomm's stock volatility, peaking at nearly 9% during the day, suggests strong market interest and potential for further growth in AI-related sectors.

11:54
PDT

U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations have stalled.

Iran U.S.Israel UN Security Council Russia China JCPOA Chris Wright Mark Champion Bloomberg AI Bloomberg Business Week Daily PRIVATE DXY

– Focus has shifted to the Strait of Hormuz as a critical geopolitical point.

– Military actions may escalate tensions further.

– Iran's nuclear capabilities remain a concern.

– Potential for a regional arms race is heightened.

geopolitical risknuclear proliferationoil market volatility

▸ Full transcript

We're pushing the envelope of technology in multiple directions. Software, hardware, chemistry, physics. The cable is very cold. And more CEOs that can nail the photo shoot. Hundreds and hundreds of billions of dollars are at stake. While the problems are economic, the solutions are too. And yes, we will be talking about AI. There is a lot of humanoid hype out there. But our future doesn't run on hype; it runs on innovation. Watch season two on all these lovely channels. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveck on Bloomberg Radio and Television. All right, everybody, just about an hour to go until we wrap up trading on this first trading day of the week. Of course, it's Tuesday, September 8th, 2026. Happy fall, everybody. Is it? Yeah. No, no, no, no. I know. It's not technically what. No, Charlie always corrects us, and he's right. I get it, but you know you have... We have a couple more weeks. It's the 21st of September. You hit September. Come on, hit September. Oh, it is. The tone is different. It's pleasant outside right now. It's beautiful. Extremely pleasant here in the New York City area. But you know, just last week it was really hot, so I think it could get hot again. I'm just saying the mind-sick. Yeah, yeah. It's like... Yeah, it's pumpkin spice latte time.

Analysis

The discussion highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's nuclear program and the implications of U.S. military actions in the region. The focus has shifted from nuclear negotiations to managing the strategic Strait of Hormuz, indicating a potential escalation in conflict and economic ramifications.

Smart money should note that the failure of diplomatic efforts and the U.S. military's current strategy could lead to increased volatility in oil markets and broader geopolitical instability. The lack of inspectors and the potential for Iran to pursue nuclear capabilities could trigger a regional arms race, impacting global markets significantly.

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