bloomberg-live Transcript

286 segs ← CIO Feed

Full Transcript

Showing latest 53 of 286 segments. Ads filtered. Auto-refreshes 90 s.
13:56
PDT
CPI report due tomorrow at 8:30 a.m. could influence Fed's decision.
CPIFederal ReserveUniversity of MichiganBloomberg TelevisionCantor FitzgeraldKyle LutnickEdie LutnickCEOJoe MatthewChapel HillNorth CarolinaCharity DayFEDFUNDSPRIVATECL=F
– University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers released at 10 a.m. Eastern.
– 25th anniversary of 9/11 may impact market sentiment and trading volumes.
– Increased focus on inflation and consumer behavior ahead of Fed meeting.
– Potential volatility in markets as investors react to upcoming data.
inflation indicatorsconsumer sentimentmarket volatilityFed policy
▸ Full transcript
Bringing you up to the minute news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Joe Matthew in Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and this is Blue. Let's set you up for what to watch over the next 24 hours, and it's no surprise. All eyes will be on that CPI report, the consumer price report, the last one before the Fed's big decision next Wednesday. It comes tomorrow morning at 8:30 a.m. We're also going to get a read on the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers. That's coming out at 10 a.m. Eastern time. And a programming note, all day tomorrow, right here on Bloomberg Television, we will be reflecting on the 25th anniversary of the worst terrorist attacks on U.S. soil in modern history. We're going to start the day in addition to our moments of silence, back once again at Cantor Fitzgerald's annual Charity Day. We're going to hear from the chairman, Kyle Lutnick, excuse me, Kyle Lutnick, brother. We're also going to hear from the co-CEO of Cantor as well as Edie Lutnick, who has been running their charity now for years. Most of the guests that we're going to have on this program and across Bloomberg all day long also have special connections to that tragic day. We're going to get their reflections not only on.
Analysis

The upcoming CPI report is critical as it precedes the Federal Reserve's decision next Wednesday, with expectations high for its impact on monetary policy. Additionally, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment numbers will provide further insights into consumer behavior, which is essential for market forecasting.

Smart money should note the heightened focus on inflation indicators and consumer sentiment as they could influence Fed actions and market volatility. The juxtaposition of these reports against the backdrop of the 25th anniversary of the 9/11 attacks may also affect market sentiment and trading volumes as investors reflect on broader economic stability.

13:52
PDT
Fanatics aims to enhance the fan experience through integrated services.
FanaticsMatt KingDraftKingsFanDuelCal-ChiPoly MarketCEOFanatics Betting
– The company sees potential in merging betting with commerce and collectibles.
– CEO emphasizes brand loyalty as a key driver for growth.
– Fanatics is leveraging its brand recognition to gain a competitive advantage.
– The focus on ecosystem benefits may lead to increased user engagement.
digital sports platformsfan engagementmarket competition
▸ Full transcript
When you look at what Fanatics has become overall, it raises a lot of questions as to whether you think that the betting business itself will just be a betting business or if there are ambitions for it to morph into something else, like a media company. What do you want to do beyond what you're doing now, if at all? If you look at the through line of what Fanatics does, we only get into businesses where we think we can actively make the fan experience better for somebody. In each of the individual businesses that we've launched, whether it's commerce giving you deeper access to merchandise and easier access to higher quality merchandise at a good value, whether it's the collectibles business and the incredible innovation that that team has done, or the gaming business where it was about how to create a better proposition, all three of those businesses are about making the fan experience better. As we've added more businesses, the other benefit is you start to see the ecosystem benefit of fans doing things in multiple verticals, which unlocks better experiences and more rewards. For the first time, fans are starting to experience a single digital sports platform where they can do everything around their fandom, which makes their fan experience better. The beauty of that is, if we can make the fan experience better, people already love sports. In making that experience better, we become a beloved brand. All right, Matt, we're going to leave it there. I really appreciate you stopping by. Matt King, he's the CEO of Fanatics Betting and Gaming. When we come back after the break, we're going to set you up for what to watch.
Analysis

Fanatics is positioning itself as a comprehensive digital sports platform, enhancing the fan experience across various verticals, including betting, commerce, and collectibles. The CEO emphasized that their strategy focuses on creating better propositions for fans, which could lead to increased brand loyalty and engagement.

Smart money should note that Fanatics' approach to integrating multiple services under one platform could disrupt traditional betting markets and create a competitive edge. The emphasis on improving fan experience suggests a long-term growth strategy that may attract more users and increase market share in a crowded space.

13:50
PDT
DraftKings expects growth across all products, especially in prediction markets.
DraftKingsJason RobbinsFanaticsMatt KingFanDuelCal-ChiPoly MarketSupreme CourtNinth CircuitFEDFUNDS
– The Supreme Court's decision could clarify legal uncertainties in online sports betting.
– Fanatics aims to enhance customer experience while managing advertising volume.
– Competition for customer acquisition is increasing among sportsbooks and prediction markets.
– Responsible marketing practices are becoming essential in the betting industry.
sports betting growthregulatory claritycustomer acquisitionresponsible marketing
▸ Full transcript
About 2015, and so I learned a lot of lessons then that we're frankly applying today. I would say a couple of things. One is we are very responsible in how we market and what we say. We talk about it as an entertainment product. We're very clear about the tools you have around responsible gaming and things like that. I would say the second thing is we're just conscious of the volume of advertising. Like you have to, you know, at some point, no matter how good your creative is, if you run enough ads, people will get annoyed. And you never want to be in a place where you were an annoyance in the context of something that people love like football. And so for us, it's really about the proper positioning as well as being conscious of how we position ourselves and frankly just making sure that we avoid making promises that you can't keep. With the structure of your business though, how do you navigate the idea that you're basically running a legal state-by-state tax, traditional sports books business? And now what I'm told in quotation marks is a federally regulated prediction markets business and not to mention all the lawsuits flying back and forth that now appears to have finally reached the Supreme Court. Do you think that a Supreme Court decision on the case that just came out of the Ninth Circuit could provide a little bit more clarity for you and your peers when it happens? I think a Supreme Court decision will certainly provide more clarity. It may raise more questions, but I think, and I'm optimistic, that it'll provide clarity. And I think in the meantime, if you take out, if you turn down the volume some of the lawsuits that are going back and forth. Prediction markets and gambling.
Analysis

DraftKings anticipates significant growth this fall, particularly in the prediction markets segment, as it launches its sports product nationwide. CEO Jason Robbins emphasizes the importance of clarity from the Supreme Court regarding legal online sports betting, which could impact investor confidence and stock performance.

The competitive landscape for customer acquisition in the betting market is intensifying, with companies like Fanatics leveraging their brand recognition to gain an edge. The focus on responsible marketing and avoiding over-saturation in advertising is crucial for maintaining customer engagement in a crowded market.

13:48
PDT
DraftKings expects growth across all products, with a focus on prediction markets.
DraftKingsJason RobbinsFanaticsMatt KingCal-ChiPoly MarketFanDuelTVFair PlayWorld CupDXY
– Fanatics aims to differentiate itself through brand trust and customer experience.
– Competition in the sports betting market is intensifying with new entrants.
– DraftKings is optimistic about future performance despite current stock challenges.
– Fanatics prioritizes customer incentives over marketing spend.
sports betting competitioncustomer acquisition strategies
▸ Full transcript
Things like giving fan cash on every bet. We innovated a policy called Fair Play, which is all about injury protection. Fundamentally, like everything we do is done through the lens of how do we enhance the fan experience. What is the cost though to sort of acquire new customers now? Because I look at the competition and it's not just when we talk about you, Fanatics, FanDuel, and DraftKings, but now of course you have the actual prediction markets like Cal-Chi and Poly Market doing their thing. You have other traditional sportsbooks now trying to sort of get into this space. And I would think that just the competition over customers, over fans, has gotten more intense. It's certainly gotten more intense. I think we can all speak to, we've all seen a lot of ads probably starting with the World Cup all the way through now. I'd say a couple of things. One is we have a massive advantage because we have the Fanatics brand. It is a brand that most sports fans know, they trust it. And frankly, there is an aspect of that brand where people want to do more things with Fanatics. So when we started the business, we went out and said, hey, would you use a sportsbook done by Fanatics? And they said, absolutely. And so we have a massive advantage in the Fanatics brand. We also have a massive advantage in the sense that we are a second mover. And so we're able to kind of look and find the places where we can see value in terms of spending marketing dollars. But our fundamental mantra is I would always rather put a dollar back in a customer's pocket than spend it on a TV ad. And that's the way we build the business.
Analysis

DraftKings anticipates significant growth this fall, particularly in the prediction market segment, as they launch their offerings nationwide. CEO Jason Robbins expressed confidence in their ability to adapt and compete, despite investor concerns about stock performance and market competition.

Fanatics is leveraging its strong brand recognition to gain a competitive edge in the crowded sports betting market, emphasizing customer-centric strategies over traditional advertising. Their approach to customer acquisition focuses on enhancing the fan experience, which could lead to a more sustainable growth model in the long term.

13:46
PDT
DraftKings expects growth in prediction markets as a key revenue driver.
DraftKingsJason RobbinsFanaticsMatt KingVanduulCEO
– Robbins is optimistic about demonstrating results to investors in upcoming quarters.
– Fanatics is combining multiple gaming offerings into one app, increasing competitive pressure.
– Investors are currently cautious due to market transitions in betting and predictions.
– The clarity from upcoming Supreme Court decisions on betting regulations is crucial.
sports betting growthprediction marketsregulatory clarity
▸ Full transcript
It can go either way. It can be a huge opportunity, or companies cannot perform and not adapt, and bad things can happen. So I think that's a lot of the way investors might look at it. But we believe we have a very strong track record of repeatedly launching different products and competing in them. And we've been successful in doing that for many, many years now. So we have a very strong level of conviction that not only is our existing business healthy and growing, but the predictions are going to represent a big incremental opportunity for us, and we're out there executing against that in a disciplined way. So, you know, when will that become apparent more to investors? I don't know. I'm hoping in the next couple of quarters, you know, we really can post some data showing that. It is a bit of a proven story for sure. I can say it all I want, but I think people want to see the results, and we're happy to, you know, go out there and put our money where our mouth is. Jason Robbins there, the founder and CEO over at DraftKings. And we actually want to stay in the world of betting and prediction markets. And we'll talk Fanatics. Fanatics, combining in sports book, casino, and prediction market offerings into one app just last week, joining us live in studio here is Fanatics betting and gaming CEO Matt King. Talk a little bit more about that. We should point out, before we get to the app and all that, I do just kind of want to talk about where Fanatics stands right now in this space. I mean, obviously DraftKings and Vanduul, your former employer, that you basically built up. I mean that was the duop.
Analysis

DraftKings CEO Jason Robbins expressed confidence in the company's ability to adapt and grow, particularly in the prediction markets, which he sees as a significant opportunity for incremental revenue. He acknowledged that while investors are cautious, he anticipates showing positive results in the coming quarters to validate this growth narrative.

Fanatics is consolidating its offerings in the betting and gaming space, which could intensify competition against established players like DraftKings and FanDuel. The integration of sports betting, casino, and prediction markets into a single app may streamline user experience and attract a broader customer base, potentially reshaping market dynamics.

13:44
PDT
The company is not participating in Supreme Court cases related to online sports betting.
Supreme Courtsports bettingprediction marketsinvestors
– Clarity in regulations is crucial for the company's operational strategy.
– The stock has underperformed, remaining below its 200-day moving average for almost a year.
– Investors are looking for signs of revenue and profitability improvement.
– The transition in the betting and prediction markets is a significant concern for investors.
regulatory clarityinvestor sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Are you prepared right now to actually file an amicus brief to the Supreme Court on this issue? And if so, what side are you taking? Well, we're not involved in any of these things. So we're going to stay on the sidelines. We're obviously an interested party in seeing what the outcomes are, but we've chosen to operate in states that do not have legal online sports betting that we are licensed to do. And we have not been involved in any of the court cases and will continue to take that position. Can you tell me what you want the outcome of the Supreme Court case to be? You know, I think the most important thing is that there's clarity. I think, you know, unlikely, but obviously an unfortunate outcome would be one that's not totally clear and results in additional litigation. It would be nice to just get a, you know, clear answer and understand what the rules of the road are. And we're happy to operate under whatever that clear answer might be. We just need to understand what that is and hopefully we'll get there. There has been some concern amongst investors though that the transition that's been happening in the betting slash prediction markets has been a huge overhang. Your stock has been below its 200-day moving average for almost a full year now. I am curious as to when you can start to see a material improvement both in terms of revenue growth, profitability growth, but also some additional value to this company that investors I guess would pin a higher price tag on. You know, it's a very good question that you're asking and...
Analysis

The CEO of a sports betting company confirmed their decision to remain uninvolved in ongoing Supreme Court cases regarding online sports betting, emphasizing the need for clarity in regulations. Investors are concerned about the company's stock performance, which has remained below its 200-day moving average for nearly a year, indicating a lack of confidence in revenue and profitability growth.

13:42
PDT
Nationwide availability of sports product expected to drive growth.
Jason RobbinsNFLiGamingsports bettingCEO
– Prediction markets anticipated to be a major growth area this season.
– iGaming and sportsbook segments also showing healthy growth.
– First-time depositors expected to increase alongside overall wagering.
– Overall positive sentiment for the upcoming sports season.
sports betting growthprediction marketsiGaming trends
▸ Full transcript
Jason Robbins is the CEO of a sports betting business and is now trying to embrace prediction markets. Here's what he had to say: "Now, you know, in the fall, we have all four major sports going at once coming up in just a short while. And so this is really kind of the kickoff of it with college football, of course, starting and then NFL kicking off last night. And really just excited that the season's here. It's going to be a huge season for us. I think we have now our sports product available nationwide, which is the first time we've really been able to do that. So I'm pretty excited to see what that brings." So, I mean, comparing, I know we're just kind of starting the fall here, but as you look to your numbers from last year, are you anticipating meaningful growth year over year in all of those key metrics, both in terms of the handled growth, the share of wagering that's occurring live as well as some first-time depositors? "Yeah, I mean, I think that our expectation is absolutely that we see growth across all of our products, but I think the biggest growth is going to come from the prediction space. Sportsbook is growing nicely though, definitely seeing great growth there, iGaming is growing, so still seeing very healthy strong growth there, but predictions, this is the first NFL season that for the whole season, we've had our offering available on a broader basis. So I think that's going to be a huge part of this fall story." I am curious just about kind of the balance.
Analysis

Jason Robbins, CEO of a sports betting company, expressed optimism about the upcoming sports season, highlighting the nationwide availability of their sports product and the anticipated growth in prediction markets. He expects significant year-over-year growth across all key metrics, particularly in the prediction space, which is newly available for the entire NFL season.

13:38
PDT
Adobe shares spiked post-earnings but are now in the red.
AdobeOracleConstance Schwartz-MariniSMAC EntertainmentSMACCEOCFOAlright ConstanceConstance SchwartzPRIVATE
– Oracle shares rose 7% after earnings and are holding gains.
– Market reactions indicate volatility in tech stock performance.
– Earnings quality and guidance are critical for investor sentiment.
– Divergence in tech stock performance may signal broader market trends.
tech earnings volatilityinvestor sentimentwomen in sports
▸ Full transcript
Their own league and there's a few extensions that we'll be getting involved in as well, but it's really so refreshing as someone I wish I could go back and tell my 22-year-old self, like just wait to see what's going to happen 30 plus years later for women in sports. Yeah, I think it's a lot we would like to go back and tell our 22-year-old selves. I do want to end it; I mean, so I said, yeah, I think you found 20 or so, it's been like 14 years or so, 15 years you started. I mean, kind of where does SMAC go in terms of its own growth? I mean, is this kind of where you want to be now, do you have ambitions to be much broader than what you are doing? Well, the fact that we have verticals in management and production and brand building and now podcasting, I don't know what yet is to come, but so far we're just happy about amplifying everything we have and continuing to raise the profiles of all of our clients. Alright Constance, so it's great to meet you. Thank you, nice to meet you. Absolutely, we'll talk again soon. I'm sure Constance Schwartz-Brady, co-founder CEO of SMAC Entertainment. We do want to take a quick look at the after-hour straight as we wait for those conference calls to start from Adobe and Oracle. Adobe shares have got a bit of a spike out of the gate on the back of its earnings, now in the red. Oracle, which spiked higher by about 7% immediately after its earnings report, is holding those gains into the top of the hour. Well, we're going to hear from the CEO and CFO. This is the close on Bloomberg.
Analysis

Adobe shares initially spiked following its earnings report but have since turned negative, while Oracle's shares rose by about 7% after its earnings and are maintaining those gains. The contrasting performance of these tech giants highlights the volatility in the sector and the varying market reactions to earnings results.

Smart money should note the potential for continued divergence in tech stock performance based on earnings quality and guidance. The market's reaction to these earnings reports may signal broader trends in investor sentiment towards tech valuations and growth prospects.

13:36
PDT
Athletes are transitioning from endorsers to equity holders in their ventures.
MichaelSmack EntertainmentAnt MediaBloombergChristian JanetskySeth MeyerJanice HendersonBut MichaelWild West
– The tech sector's share in investment-grade benchmarks is expected to rise to 20%.
– Artificial intelligence presents both opportunities and risks for athletes' revenue.
– The landscape for athlete branding is evolving with a focus on personal equity.
– Women in sports are gaining more attention and opportunities.
athlete entrepreneurshipartificial intelligenceequity ownershipwomen in sports
▸ Full transcript
The shiny new toy, but that was a choice that I had made to be behind the scenes. But Michael specifically was like, there are so many people trying to do what we're doing and you're really one of the first people to do it. And a female, he's got daughters. He's like, you have to come out in front. But you're owning the platform. The distribution and ad sales is going through Ant Media, partisan clear. I mean, I guess it might be a dumb question, but why did you want to own rather than maybe offloading some of that risk to just having partnerships or whatever? I believe it's the same reason you were asking me about why a lot of our clients want to have equity and not just be an endorser. And sometimes it works. Sometimes there are times with a client that it makes sense to just have a brand deal and be an ambassador. But when you can have equity and sweat equity and help build and all the things, it makes sense. And that's how strongly Michael, myself and everyone at Smack felt about our podcast specifically because we wanted to give a place for people like me who've been the behind-the-scenes person to come out with their business partner. I do want to talk about just the idea of the use of artificial intelligence, likeness rights, and whether that's become an opportunity for your clients or a risk to their long-term revenue generation. I would say it's a little of both. You know, there are some instances where this is fantastic and there are other instances because it's like the Wild West when the internet first launched that there aren't rules and copyright yet. So we're figuring it out as we go, but as of now we're tapping into where we can use it. What about women in sports? We talk a lot on this program about all the professional women's leagues.
Analysis

The conversation highlights a shift in the sports industry where athletes are increasingly becoming entrepreneurs rather than mere endorsers, with a focus on equity ownership in their ventures. This trend reflects a broader change in capital markets, where asset-heavy businesses are gaining traction, potentially reshaping investment strategies in the tech sector and beyond.

Smart money should note the dual nature of artificial intelligence in sports, presenting both opportunities and risks for athletes' revenue streams. As the landscape evolves without clear regulations, those who adapt quickly to leverage AI while safeguarding their rights may gain a competitive edge.

13:34
PDT
Michael Strahan exemplifies successful athlete transitions into media.
Michael StrahanKelly RipaGiantsHustle Like Your BrokePro Football Hall
– Not all athletes possess the capacity for such a pivot; it's rare.
– Success requires a combination of talent, work ethic, and a strong team.
– The market for athlete-led ventures may be selective.
– Supportive infrastructure is crucial for athlete entrepreneurs.
athlete brandingmedia transition
▸ Full transcript
But they have to have their success at their main thing, whether it's the broadcasting or on field or on court, and then we go from there and launch. Let's talk about Strahan, because I was definitely one of the haters when he made that pivot away from sports. I didn't understand. No, but that's great. But it kind of worked. You saw him on what he was doing, the Kelly Ripa thing. And I was like, oh, this guy's engaging. And then of course, he ended up going to the morning shows. And now it's just really expanded even beyond that. Not everybody, though, can do that. That's the key. Yeah, every key. And I do wonder, is he, and I know you mentioned, obviously you got a much bigger roster than just him, but just using him as a focal point, is he like the unicorn, or are there really just a plethora of these people out there who might have that capacity? He's a unicorn. I mean, first of all, you have to have a natural God-given talent. I mean, that's first and foremost. But then you have to add the work ethic, and then you have to have a great team around you that's going to help architect and steer you in the right direction. We have a company, Mantra, Hustle Like Your Broke, which, I mean, we'll learn more about that later, But that's because you can't just rely on the one thing. And that's good for some people. Some people are happy to ride off into the sunset and be a scratch golfer and move on from there. But for Michael especially, he knows he can do more. I mean, we joke about it, but after he was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, you went to the Giants game and they inducted you there as well. And I overheard some of the Giants sponsors on the field with us. A wife said, what is the guy from live with Kelly and Michael doing, getting inducted here? And everyone thought I was gonna be upset and freak out, and I was like.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the unique success of athletes transitioning into media and entertainment, with Michael Strahan being a prime example of this trend. His journey illustrates that not all athletes can replicate this success, emphasizing the rarity of such talent and the importance of a supportive team.

Smart money should note that while Strahan is considered a 'unicorn' in this space, the underlying factors for success include natural talent, work ethic, and strategic guidance. This suggests that the market for athlete-led ventures may be selective, favoring those with a unique combination of skills and support.

13:32
PDT
Athletes are increasingly viewed as enterprises rather than just endorsers.
FandleChristian JanetskyBloombergConstance Schwartz-MariniSmack EntertainmentCEOBloomberg Power Players SummitConstance SchwartzHoly GrailPRIVATE
– The criteria for athlete success now includes their capacity to engage consumers.
– The shift reflects a broader trend in sports marketing towards personal branding.
– Tools and information are being provided to help consumers manage their entertainment budgets.
– The business of sports is evolving with a focus on licensing and intellectual property.
athlete brandingsports marketingconsumer engagement
▸ Full transcript
Our value proposition for customers is not to put your money into Fandle and watch it grow. It's to have a good time in adding to the experience of a game. We provide a lot of tools and information that we steer our customers towards, which is to consider this part of your entertainment budget, make a budget, figure out how much you're comfortable playing with, and stick within those limits. We give a lot of tools and a lot of information on that. Christian Janetsky, the president of Fandle, spoke upstairs at the Bloomberg Power Players Summit, an event showcasing the business of sports. Fresh off that stage right now here in studio 2 is Constance Schwartz-Marini, the co-founder and CEO of Smack Entertainment, one of the architects of the modern athlete as an enterprise model, which includes fame, owned media, consumer brands, licensing revenue, and intellectual property. Great to have you here. Thank you for having me. I want to start with that because every time we talk about the business of sports here, at least certainly over the last few years, it's been specifically about this idea of the athlete becoming the enterprise rather than just the endorser. I think we're in an age where we remember that for athletes, the Holy Grail was just getting a Nike deal or a Wheaties deal, and that was it. You got paid, you did your commercials. That's changed a lot, and obviously you founded Smack in 2011 or so, which basically leaned into that. What's the criteria that you look for where you think that an athlete has the capacity to be more than just an endorser? We call them the multi-hyphen.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the evolving role of athletes as enterprises, moving beyond traditional endorsements to become multi-faceted brands. This shift indicates a significant change in how athletes leverage their fame and intellectual property for revenue generation.

Smart money should note that the criteria for identifying athletes with enterprise potential are shifting, focusing on their ability to engage with consumers and create diverse revenue streams. This trend could reshape the sports marketing landscape, emphasizing the importance of personal branding and direct consumer engagement.

13:30
PDT
Oracle's downgrade raises concerns about capital raising in the tech sector.
BloombergJP MorganOracleMicrosoftAlphabetJanice HendersonSeth MeyerAIBloomberg Power PlayersNew YorkBloomberg InsightPRIVATEDXY
– Projected capital expenditures from hyper-scalers could reach $1.5 trillion.
– Bifurcation in credit quality expected as strong and weak players emerge.
– Tech sector's share of investment-grade benchmarks could rise to 20%.
– Demand-supply imbalance in capital markets likely to persist.
capital raisingcredit qualityinvestment-grade benchmarkscapital expenditures
▸ Full transcript
Bloomberg Power Players returns to New York. Powered by Bloomberg's award-winning journalists, front row conversations with the voices shaping the future of sports and business, where game changers connect from the boardroom to the locker room, a place for bold ideas, powerful insights, and high-impact conversations. Every sport grounded in Bloomberg Insight. Join us. Bloomberg Power Players, New York, September 10th, 2026. Some see heroes. Others only egos. We see the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some. The future of money to others. We see cryptos' trillion-dollar swings. The end of jobs. Or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the growing concern over capital raising among companies, particularly in the tech sector, as firms like Oracle face downgrades and rising credit default swaps. The anticipated capital expenditures from hyper-scalers are projected to reach $1.4 to $1.5 trillion, indicating a significant shift in the investment landscape towards asset-heavy models.

Smart money should note the potential for a bifurcation in credit quality as companies with strong balance sheets continue to thrive while weaker players may struggle under the weight of increased borrowing. The tech sector's share of investment-grade benchmarks is expected to rise dramatically, reflecting a fundamental shift in capital market dynamics that could reshape investment strategies moving forward.

13:27
PDT
Tech sector moving towards asset-heavy models.
NVIDIAOracleAdobeSeth MeyerJanice HendersonAlphabetMicrosoftRBC Capital MarketsJP MorganGisec GlobalIGHey SethIGGOOGL
– Potential increase in tech's share of investment-grade benchmarks to 20%.
– Demand for capital exceeds supply in the tech sector.
– Two-year yield rises to 4.58%, highest in recent times.
– Concerns about capital costs and market dynamics are growing.
capital marketsinvestment-grade benchmarks
▸ Full transcript
Markets have changed because we've kind of gone from where sort of asset-light models were rewarded both in equity markets and to a certain extent in debt markets, and now these are basically asset-heavy businesses. But I wonder, is that actually better to a certain extent? Because at least you actually have physical collateral or something there that could back some of these debt deals? From a debt holder's perspective, you'd say yes, but at the end of the day, lending money to an asset-light Alphabet, you're lending against that free cash flow stream. And I think you and I could agree that for a very long period of time, that free cash flow stream is solid. Even if we weren't doing this, there was no buildout. I think you're touching on a bigger question. We are fundamentally changing the way people think about capital and capital markets. The tech sector as a whole, just thinking about what that will represent as a percentage of investment-grade benchmarks, it could eventually equal that of banking, which is 20 percent of the investment-grade category. So this was a sector that just a couple of years ago was 6%, 7% of IG, that is now going to be upwards of 20%. So yeah, you're already seeing sort of the push and pull of kind of just balancing these benchmarks. Hey Seth, got to leave it there. Always appreciated. Seth Meyer, global head of client portfolio management over at Janice Henderson, and actually a redhead crossing the wire that would have been a perfect question for him. This is involving a two-year yield that is now continuing to rise up 15 basis points right now, hitting 4.58% while we're in conversation. That's the highest level going back.
Analysis

The tech sector is experiencing a shift from asset-light models to asset-heavy businesses, which may provide more collateral for debt holders. This change could significantly increase the tech sector's representation in investment-grade benchmarks, potentially reaching 20%, up from 6-7%.

Smart money should note that the demand for capital is outpacing supply, particularly in the tech sector, indicating a potential imbalance that could affect future financing conditions. The rising two-year yield, now at 4.58%, reflects growing concerns about capital costs and market dynamics.

13:25
PDT
Oracle delivered 850 megawatts, below the expected one gigawatt.
OracleNVIDIAAdobeRBC Capital MarketsJanice HendersonMicrosoftAlphabetUSGDPIGSPVDXY
– Concerns exist over Oracle's ability to raise capital and manage component price inflation.
– The AI trade shows strong enterprise demand with no slowdown in CapEx.
– Hyper-scalers' total CapEx budgets are projected between $1.4 trillion and $1.5 trillion.
– Imbalance between supply and demand in the data center market is expected to persist.
capital marketsAI trade dynamicssupply-demand imbalance
▸ Full transcript
It just seems feels a little bit more opaque as to exactly what the quality is, what the collateral is, and more importantly, who is actually liable for it if something does go wrong. I mean ultimately you see creative structures when there's a need for capital, right, and I think that's what you're getting at. Just total quantum of that, run me what you think next year, total CapEx budgets, if you just add the hyper-scalers together somewhere between 1.4 trillion and 1.5 trillion dollars. I mean just putting that in perspective relative to the US GDP or any of those types of metrics, it's astronomical. Assume 40% of that's going to end up in the corporate bond market in IG, there'll be some portion that falls in the high yield and some portion that falls into SPV vehicles. I think ultimately it's your ability to underwrite that risk and understanding who ultimately is on the hook for or in the event that something were to happen, in the event that the data center is not being utilized to the degree that we ultimately believe. Ultimately right now though, it's not a matter of that. It's not a matter of demand keeping up. It's the supply trying to match that demand. We've got that imbalance that we expect to have for multiple periods as we kind of move forward from here. So I don't know if that's, if what you're asking is tomorrow's story where you really have to dig in and understand it, but it is an understanding of look right now that at the end of the day, enterprise is just starting, consumers really even haven't started. So the demand window when you think about.
Analysis

Oracle's recent performance showed a delivery of 850 megawatts in the quarter, falling short of the expected one gigawatt capacity, raising concerns about its ability to scale operations amid capital and component price inflation. Despite a high OCI number, the company's long-term profitability remains uncertain due to underinvestment in key areas, suggesting that the current revenue boost may not be sustainable.

The overall AI trade appears more durable than the market anticipates, with strong enterprise demand and no slowdown in capital expenditures. However, the significant capital needs across the sector, particularly among hyper-scalers, indicate a potential imbalance between supply and demand that could impact future market dynamics.

13:23
PDT
Oracle's capital raising efforts are raising concerns about its financial stability.
OracleMicrosoftAlphabetSeth MeyerJanice HendersonAICDSABSWhen MicrosoftMSFTGOOGL
– The market is differentiating between strong and weak players based on balance sheet strength.
– $20 billion of equity issuance this quarter indicates heightened capital needs across sectors.
– Investor sentiment may shift towards companies with weaker balance sheets amid AI financing.
– Concerns about Oracle's credit ratings and CDS levels are notable.
AI financingcapital marketscredit ratingsbalance sheet strength
▸ Full transcript
Particularly for Oracle, a lot of that has to do with its cost of capital. Seth Meyer, global head of client portfolio management and portfolio manager at Janice Henderson, joins us right now. And I do want to start there because when we started to see companies finance this AI build-out, a lot of it was cash off the balance sheet and everybody was like, oh, that's good. Then we started to see a lot of companies borrow. You know what? When Microsoft borrows, Alphabet borrows, nobody really doubts their ability to make good on all that. But when you start to go down the line and see a company like Oracle, which has been downgraded, which is seeing the CDS start to blow out just a little bit, does it raise concern? Yeah, I think in any event when you're raising this much capital, regardless of who the entity is, it raises concern. Obviously, as balance sheets become a little bit more stressed in any sector, you end up having the strong players and then the weaker players. Clearly, it does raise some of that angst or consternation. The question is whether or not it is ultimately something that really forces an Oracle call into an area of high yield or those type of environments. We just don't see that happening actually. If you look at the past quarter, I think there's $20 billion of equity issuance this quarter. So there is some level of acknowledgement that the capital need is more in excess than just what you can do in unsecured markets or even ABS markets or even going through some of the vendor financing and special purpose vehicles that we've seen. So the quantum of that alone is a lot and clearly you're going to have winners and losers as far as strength of balance sheets. I mean, it is interesting when you sort of unpack just credit ratings.
Analysis

Oracle's recent capital raising efforts have raised concerns about its financial stability, especially as it faces downgrades and widening credit default swaps. The market is differentiating between strong and weak players, with Oracle's situation highlighting the stress on balance sheets across sectors.

Smart money should note that while Oracle's capital needs are significant, the overall market has seen a $20 billion equity issuance this quarter, indicating a broader acknowledgment of capital requirements beyond traditional financing methods. This could signal a shift in investor sentiment towards companies with weaker balance sheets as they navigate the AI build-out.

13:19
PDT
Oracle's adjusted revenue rose 30% YoY to $19.35 billion.
OracleRishi JalluriaRBC Capital MarketsAdobeNVIDIAAIRBCRichard JulloriaCapital Markets OracleNVDA
– Cloud infrastructure revenue doubled to $7.4 billion, beating estimates.
– Concerns remain about application software revenue and capital management.
– Overall AI demand appears strong, with no slowdown in CapEx.
– Oracle shares rose approximately 7% following the earnings report.
AI trade durabilityCapEx trendscloud infrastructure growth
▸ Full transcript
and NVIDIA, now we got Oracle and I guess the earnings season basically starts right back up in about three or four weeks' time. But I mean, just kind of great overall in terms of, did it meet your expectations? And more importantly, with the forecast and the long-term outlooks that you heard from some of these companies, does it give you confidence overall in the durability of the AI trade? Yeah, absolutely. Look, if I were to say, and you're exactly right, it feels like software and AI earnings are just never-ending so good to just put a wrap on it now temporarily. But I think you're exactly right. Like look my perspective is the earnings season came in better than feared. We're seeing real enterprise AI demand. We're seeing no slowdown in CapEx which is obviously fueling the entire AI trade. And we're starting to see green shoots of AI outside of just hardware and semis and infrastructure into infrastructure into cybersecurity into database and even into applications. And that tells me that you know the overall AI trade regardless of where it follows is probably more durable than the market is giving credit for right now. Alright, Richard Julloria, managing director of software equity research over at RBC Capital Markets Oracle shares up about 7% as we await the start of that conference call Adobe shares oscillating between gains and losses as we wait its conference call at the start of the hour. We're going to talk a little bit more about AI spending when we come back after the break because a lot of people were coming into today's earnings report for Oracle less concerned about the revenue and profitability in a little bit.
Analysis

Oracle's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with adjusted revenue rising 30% year-over-year to $19.35 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubling to $7.4 billion. Despite concerns about application software revenue and capital issues, the overall performance suggests a resilient demand for AI and enterprise solutions.

Smart money should note that while Oracle's cloud revenue growth is impressive, there are underlying risks related to application software performance and the company's ability to manage debt amid rising capital expenditures. The market's perception of AI's durability may be overly optimistic, as Oracle's long-term growth could be hampered by its historical underinvestment in key areas.

13:17
PDT
Oracle's adjusted revenue rose 30% year-over-year.
OracleRishi JalluriaRBC Capital MarketsOCIAI
– Cloud infrastructure revenue doubled to $7.4 billion, beating estimates.
– Concerns exist about capacity coming online and capital management.
– Legacy software revenue showed signs of weakness.
– Long-term growth may not be sustainable due to underinvestment.
cloud infrastructure growthcapital managementAI integration
▸ Full transcript
I think from what it looks like they delivered 850 megawatts in the quarter versus one gigawatt of capacity that was expected. So even with the high OCI number, there are concerns about how quickly some of that capacity can come online and their ability to raise funds for it, especially as we see component price inflation, be it memory, power, or whatever other input have you. Yeah. And they do talk a little bit about some of the capital issues, saying right now there is no incremental impact on its plans to raise capital, which I guess is a sort of fancy way of saying that all that money we already said we were going to borrow is already in the can. Who knows whether that changes or not? Where do you think though that Oracle will fit in long term in this story? And I'm not necessarily betting on whether it's a winner or a loser, but it's clearly sort of, you know, trying to use its legacy bona fides out as a database software company and apply that to what is still effectively, and with AI era, a database era to one extent or another. Yeah, absolutely. Look, I think the ambitions of the company are obviously not leverages infrastructure, but have those workloads move up the stack, have AI database and analytics and coding. In my opinion, just given where they've under-invested in a lot of these areas, otherwise, it really feels like this is more going to be a temporary benefit that they'll see this massive scaling up of OCI revenue, but it may not be durable and it may not come at real margins that contribute to the bottom line and profitability, which is ultimately what matters, you know, I think in the long term.
Analysis

Oracle's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with adjusted revenue up 30% year-over-year to $19.35 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubling to $7.4 billion. However, concerns linger about the company's ability to bring capacity online and manage capital amid rising component prices.

The market should note that while Oracle's OCI revenue is scaling up, the long-term durability of this growth may be questionable due to underinvestment in key areas. The potential for margin compression raises concerns about profitability, which could impact investor sentiment moving forward.

13:15
PDT
Oracle's adjusted revenue rose 30% year-over-year.
OracleRishi JalluriaRBC Capital MarketsNVIDIAMetaAdobeFigmaRBCRPOOCICapital MarketsRPOOCI
– Cloud infrastructure revenue exceeded expectations, reaching $7.4 billion.
– Concerns persist regarding application software revenue weakness.
– Raised guidance may temporarily alleviate financing concerns.
– Stock performance is heavily influenced by cloud offerings and revenue backlog.
cloud infrastructure growthsoftware revenue challenges
▸ Full transcript
Rishi Jalluria joins us right now, managing director of software equity research at RBC Capital Markets. Anything here that you equip with Rishi with regards to some of these headline numbers? Yeah, look, and thanks so much for having me. Always a pleasure to be here. Look, I think the numbers across the board were definitely better than feared. There were concerns around financing, concerns around the timeline of being able to turn the backlog that's sitting in RPO into revenue, clearly with the overachievement on OCI in the quarter and the raised guide. I think that some of those worries might be temporarily put to rest. If I were to say, what am I poking at here? Probably it's the app's revenue. There has already been weakness in their application software and some of their traditional software. And now you have maybe potentially the impact of rifts layering on that. So we might see further deceleration in that line. But I think very clear right now, the stock trades almost entirely on OCI and RPO at these levels? Well, I am curious. I mean, you've had a sector perform on the stock for at least a couple of years or maybe even more than that. Give me a sense here as to sort of what any potential upside is. I mean, this stock hit a record high, believe it or not, on this day one year ago and of course hasn't been anywhere near that record high since. Yeah, look, I think part of my skepticism and why I've been on the sidelines even at the peak of the large Stargate deal was really around kind of the durability of growth. I we definitely expected that.
Analysis

Oracle's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with adjusted revenue up 30% year-over-year to $19.35 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubling to $7.4 billion. However, there are concerns regarding potential deceleration in application software revenue amidst ongoing market pressures.

The market is currently fixated on Oracle's cloud offerings and revenue backlog, which may overshadow weaknesses in traditional software segments. Investors should note the raised guidance and overachievement in cloud infrastructure as indicators of resilience, but remain cautious about the sustainability of growth in application software.

13:13
PDT
Oracle's adjusted revenue rose 30% year-over-year.
OracleAnne-Marie HoudurBloombergNVIDIAAdobeClaudeChadGBTGeminiFigmaAlphabetAIEPSPRIVATEUSDCNHDXY
– Cloud infrastructure revenue doubled to $7.4 billion, beating estimates.
– Operating income reached $8.15 billion with a 42% operating margin.
– Adjusted EPS was $1.92, also exceeding expectations.
– Legacy software revenue was $5.55 billion, slightly below street estimates.
AI market positioningcloud infrastructure growthlegacy software challenges
▸ Full transcript
What do you actually do? Is this just for rich people? How do you know what to choose? We get a lot of smart people together. We're analyzing all of the data. We're doing research. And we're pulling all that together to think about what would be the best investment today that will make money in the future. Invest like the future is watching. Watch season two on all these lovely channels. Bringing you up to the minute geopolitical news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Anne-Marie Houdur in Beijing, China, and this is Bloomberg. Oracle's quarterly results are out and they are a beat. Adjusted revenue in the most recent quarter is up about 30% year over year to 19.35 billion. But that all-important cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubled to 7.4 billion dollars and that beats street estimates, which were expecting it to come in at about $7.2 billion. That is the main headline. As we talk about a company that is now really trying to grab the horns of this AI trade. I'm going to walk you through some of the other numbers for the fiscal first quarter that just came in. Operating income is about $8.15 billion. That's a beat. Operating margin is 42%. That's a beat. Adjusted EPS is $1.92 a share. That is also a beat. And even when we talk about some of the legacy businesses here, one Q software revenue is 5.55 billion, still strong, but a little bit shy of what the street was looking for.
Analysis

Oracle's quarterly results exceeded expectations, with adjusted revenue up 30% year-over-year to $19.35 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue more than doubling to $7.4 billion. This strong performance highlights Oracle's strategic positioning in the AI market, despite some legacy software revenue falling short of estimates.

The significant growth in cloud infrastructure revenue suggests that Oracle is effectively capitalizing on the AI trend, which could lead to further market share gains. However, the slight miss in legacy software revenue indicates potential challenges in maintaining its traditional business segments amidst rapid technological changes.

13:10
PDT
Oracle's debt levels are concerning given its capital expenditures.
OracleAdobeMetaNVIDIAAlphabetCoreWeaveFigmaClaudeChadGBTGeminiHonorogTom Giles
– Market sentiment is mixed regarding spending levels among major tech players.
– Investors are increasingly defensive, seeking downside protection.
– The upcoming earnings report will be critical for Oracle's outlook.
– There is uncertainty about Oracle's ability to generate sufficient cash flow.
debt managementcapital expendituresmarket sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Cloud and, you know, CoreWeave did quite well. So, dubious to put Oracle with like everyone else; they seem to have overextended themselves, and now the question is can they dig out quick enough, and that's kind of where I'm standing there. Tom, as we await Oracle, Honorog told us earlier today that data center build-out is expected to come up; that is going to be a focal point as they try to actually build out this infrastructure. What are you watching for in terms of how much of a risk that could really be moving forward? As we know, there is just so much capital at the moment being waited to be deployed. There's this schizophrenia in the market right now about whether you're overspending or underspending. And sometimes these big players get punished because they're putting out numbers that are too low. Hey, they're not spending enough. Are they really going to capture it? But the challenge with Oracle again is just does it have the cash flow to actually protect itself against these big spending outlays and the debt that it's taking on? Oracle is a big consumer of debt. And that's where it really starts to hit home for them. All right, guys. Got to leave it there. Thanks there. Two Tom Giles. That leads our tech coverage from San Francisco and Michael Ball, who helps to lead our macro coverage here in New York. We're going to take a quick break. But don't go anywhere; we come back those results from Oracle.
Analysis

Oracle's ability to manage its debt amid significant capital expenditures is under scrutiny as it prepares for earnings. The market is grappling with whether major players like Oracle are overspending or underspending, which could impact their cash flow and overall financial health.

Smart money should note that Oracle's reliance on debt could pose risks if cash flow does not keep pace with spending. The current market sentiment reflects a cautious approach, with investors weighing the implications of high capital outlays against potential revenue growth.

13:08
PDT
Adobe's earnings slightly beat expectations but highlight concerns about its AI competitiveness.
AdobeOracleFigmaLarry EllisonMichael BallTom GilesBloomberg NewsAICEOCDS
– The new CEO must quickly establish a clear strategy to address market challenges.
– Oracle's earnings are expected to show an 11% move, indicating significant market anticipation.
– The CDS market is pricing in more risk, contrasting with equity market euphoria.
– Investors are increasingly seeking downside protection, indicating a shift towards defensiveness.
AI competitiondebt riskleadership strategy
▸ Full transcript
Wants to see are your product, are you putting out the products that are going to equip you to compete in this arena where the AI is able to create these alternatives much, much more cheaply. This is why they went after Figma and of course they weren't able to go after Figma. They weren't able to achieve that in the end. Figma went public and you've seen even Figma suffer as a result of people wondering if even Figma is well enough equipped in the age of generative AI. Adobe just named a new CEO last week. They take the helm in December. How are what we are seeing in the earnings today sort of laying the groundwork and the narrative that they're going to be inheriting as we look ahead to next year? This just shows you the tall order that's ahead for leadership at Adobe and is the person, he's really gonna have to send a signal that this is the plan, this is how I'm going to attack this even though he's only been in place for a very, very short amount of time. This is what I'm inheriting. And these are the steps that I'm going to take. People are going to want to see concrete signs of what the plan of attack is. Michael, I want to bring you back into this conversation. And this gets back to the debt question and the idea of some of the moves that we've seen with regards to the CDS market, which seems is starting to finally price in a little bit more risk. It seems to be kind of a little bit disconnected from some of the euphoria that we still see amongst equity traders, not necessarily for Oracle specifically, but for the broader AI trade. Well, Oracle, that's pricing an 11% move off the earnings. Adobe was 7%.
Analysis

Adobe's earnings report indicates a slight beat on EPS but raises concerns about its relevance in the AI landscape, especially with competitors offering cheaper alternatives. The new CEO faces a significant challenge in demonstrating a clear strategy to adapt to the rapidly evolving market, particularly after the failed acquisition of Figma.

The CDS market is beginning to reflect increased risk, diverging from the optimism seen in equity markets. This disconnect suggests that while equity traders remain bullish on AI, credit markets are starting to price in potential vulnerabilities, particularly for companies like Oracle and Adobe that are heavily leveraged.

13:06
PDT
Adobe's Q3 revenue met estimates, but growth outlook is cautious.
AdobeOracleMetaNVIDIAAlphabetLarry EllisonBloombergTylerTom GilesEPSHey TomWall StreetMETANVDAGOOGL
– EPS slightly beat expectations, indicating some operational stability.
– Concerns about Adobe's adaptability to AI competition are rising.
– Market reaction suggests a shift towards companies with strong innovation.
– Investors are increasingly defensive, seeking downside protection.
AI competitiontech sector performancedebt sustainabilityinvestor sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Around that free cash flow and their ability to withstand the debt and pay it down is going to be in their favor. Well, I am, Todd, is this all going to be a winner-take-all thing? Because one of the reasons why these companies seem to be spending, at least in theory, is that they do feel like this is a winner-take-all. That's why Meta blows out. That's why NVIDIA blows out. That's why Oracle and everybody else who has the ability to either put out the cash or borrow the cash is doing it. And how long can you withstand being cash flow and how long can you withstand that and how much can you rely on your other businesses? One of the poster children for a success story that people often point to is Alphabet because they have these other businesses that they can fall back on that online advertising. Huge cash cow. Yeah. Where do you turn? Yeah. Hey Tom, hold that thought for one second. Adobe earnings crossing the wire right now. The knee-jerk reaction of the shares is to the downside. Adjusted revenue for the most recent quarter, basically in line with estimates about $6.76 billion, EPS at about $6.13. The street was looking for $6.08, so a slight beat there. Your forecast going forward right now is that for the current quarter, the fiscal fourth quarter revenue will be in a range of $6.8 to $6.85 billion. The top end of that range is the average of Wall Street estimates. Tom, I want to bring you back here into the conversation. I know you haven't had a chance at the time to parse these numbers, but it gets to this idea that a company that's basically coming in line with the most recent quarter.
Analysis

Adobe's earnings report showed adjusted revenue in line with estimates at $6.76 billion, with EPS slightly beating expectations at $6.13. However, the forecast for the current quarter suggests only modest growth, indicating potential challenges in adapting to the AI landscape.

The market's reaction to Adobe's earnings highlights a growing concern about its relevance in the AI age, as competitors are emerging with more user-friendly and cost-effective alternatives. This could signal a shift in investor sentiment towards companies that can innovate and adapt quickly in a rapidly evolving tech environment.

13:04
PDT
Investors are buying more puts for downside protection.
OracleAdobeClaudeChatGPTGeminimid-journeyS&P 500NASDAQVIXAISPXUISPXNASDAQ
– Oracle and Adobe are both under pressure ahead of earnings.
– Adobe's relevance in the AI space is being questioned.
– Market sentiment is shifting towards defensiveness.
– Higher energy costs and interest rates are impacting growth narratives.
market defensivenessAI competitioncorporate earnings
▸ Full transcript
The AI story has been found to be more secular and not as tied to the actual growth story of the moment, which was affected by higher energy costs and higher interest rates. This trend worked again last week but has started to come off today, and subsequently, we will see if people want to wholly de-risk. I've noticed that people are starting to buy more puts or downside protection on the index level, whereas before there was a lot of single stock activity that was holding up the S&P nicely in this range for a couple of months. We're now at the bottom of that range. People are getting more defensive, going long the VIX, and shorting the SPX, even the NASDAQ, which is now seeing a little more pressure on some of these semiconductors. Tom, just as we await Oracle and Adobe earnings, both of these stocks are down on the year, but for opposite reasons. Oracle is spending too much, while Adobe is not growing fast enough. Just an overview as we're minutes away: which one do you think has the better setup going into earnings today? The problem with Adobe has been the question of how well adapted they are to the AI age. Have they updated their UI? Have they updated those products? The complaint from users of Adobe is that it's the same product suite they've had forever. Now you have Claude, ChatGPT, and Gemini creating alternative mid-journey products, making them accessible, user-friendly, and cheaper. The question is, is Adobe still relevant for the AI?
Analysis

Market participants are increasingly defensive, as evidenced by a rise in put buying and downside protection on indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ. This shift comes amid concerns over corporate earnings, particularly for companies like Oracle and Adobe, with Oracle facing scrutiny over spending and Adobe questioned on its relevance in the AI landscape.

Smart money should note the growing trend of investors hedging against market downturns, indicating a potential shift in sentiment. Additionally, the competitive landscape for Adobe is tightening, with emerging AI-driven alternatives posing a significant threat to its traditional product suite, which may impact its growth trajectory.

13:01
PDT
Two-year treasury yield up 15-16 basis points.
Jeannie SunCity WealthConrad DeQuattrosOracleAdobeAlteraIntelTylerMichael BallTom GilesAppleAIS&P 500NASDAQ
– 70% probability of Fed rate hike next week.
– Corporate profit margins at all-time highs.
– Equities under pressure from rising yields.
– Quality stocks may outperform in current environment.
interest rate riskcorporate earnings resiliencemarket volatilityinvestment quality
▸ Full transcript
into this idea, not just about are they overspending, but well, are they over borrowing, particularly in a rate environment that has changed pretty dramatically from a year ago. Right now, we're looking at treasury yields, your two-year treasury yield at four, five, six, and that 10-year yield continues to flirt with 5%. Yeah, yeah. These are the weaker links to the Oracle and some of the Neal Clouds because of the leverage there that gets more expensive to borrow in the future. And the free cash flow is not recouping fast enough to balance that out. Then you see the debt gets stressed. We know they're right above junk level, that could have some implications for capital costs later on as we move forward in this, because this is a multi-year story, right? So they're going to be on the front line here as sort of gauging that. Well, give me an idea of what that correlation of higher yields means for equities. As you look at a Dow Jones industrial average down 300 points or six tenths of a percent on the day, the S&P 500 down six tenths of a percent on a day, a fourth straight day of losses, the NASDAQ down six tenths of a percent on the day, the Russell 2000 down a percent on the the day and well that's the day but these indexes have been in a bit of a downtrend for the last few days, quite frankly the last couple of weeks. Yeah I mean so the story really was the last couple of months rotation one area was getting hit another area would pick up the slack we saw sort of the AI cap x beneficiaries really doing well and I was to the energy sector doing well the last few sessions today was a little different with PPI. We saw the two year kind of explode higher in yields and all of a sudden sort of there was nowhere to hide out so really where you want to look at now is like the quality factor where guys that don't have a lot of exposure to interest rates, but stuff that does, like small caps and some of these more cyclical names that maybe have more leverage on their balance sheet.
Analysis

The two-year treasury yield has risen by 15 to 16 basis points, reflecting a more than 70% probability that the Fed will hike rates at its upcoming meeting. Despite concerns around inflation and geopolitical risks, corporate profit margins remain steady at all-time highs, indicating no immediate signs of a downturn in the economy.

Smart money should note that while higher yields are pressuring equities, particularly those with high leverage, the resilience in corporate earnings suggests that the market may still find opportunities amidst the volatility. The current environment may favor quality stocks with less exposure to interest rate fluctuations, as small caps and cyclical names face more risk due to their leverage.

12:59
PDT
Oracle and Adobe shares are down ahead of earnings reports.
OracleAdobeAlteraIntelAnthropicOpenAILarry EllisonMichael BallTom GilesBloombergIPOAIAAPLPRIVATE
– Altera is preparing for an IPO, indicating a busy year for new listings.
– Increased IPO activity may create both opportunities and risks in the tech sector.
– Market sentiment is cautious as tech stocks face pressure.
– Investors should monitor the impact of new IPOs on existing tech valuations.
IPO activityAI infrastructuretech stock volatility
▸ Full transcript
All right, Jeannie, got to leave it there. Jeannie, it's great to have you here, head of portfolio advisory over at City Wealth. We do want to take a look at tech stocks right now with Oracle and Adobe set to report after the bell. Both shares down. And a redhead crossing the Bloomberg terminal just a little while ago, this involved Altera. Of course, this was the chip programming spinoff from Intel. We're now learning, based on a report from Reuters, that it is preparing for an IPO as early as this year. Tyler, a lot of people are preparing for IPOs this year, potentially Anthropic, maybe OpenAI gets its act together. But of course, that's adding both maybe opportunity to this market, but also maybe a little bit added digestion risk. Yeah. All right, we've moved closer to the closing bells just two minutes away. We want to bring into this conversation Michael Ball, our macro strategist here at Bloomberg News. He's here with us on set in studio 2 and also Tom Giles. He's our executive editor of tech over at Bloomberg News. He's way out there in San Francisco. I know you've been busy, Tom, of course yesterday with the Apple announcement but today Oracle maybe could be just as consequential for this market. What's kind of the general backdrop given this is a stock that a year ago everybody was raving about and it's been a year since its last had a record high? Oh my gosh, last year was a great year for them. If you're a shareholder in Oracle rising to a record, there was a lot of optimism surrounding Oracle and their role in the AI infrastructure buildout. Larry Ellison.
Analysis

Tech stocks are under pressure as Oracle and Adobe prepare to report earnings, with both shares currently down. Altera, a chip programming spinoff from Intel, is reportedly preparing for an IPO this year, indicating a potential influx of new opportunities in the market but also raising concerns about digestion risk for investors.

The strong interest in IPOs, including potential listings from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, suggests a competitive landscape that could impact existing tech valuations. Smart money should note that while optimism around AI infrastructure remains, the market's digestion of new entrants could lead to volatility in established tech stocks like Oracle.

12:57
PDT
Corporate earnings are strong, indicating stability.
BloombergFrancine LacquaJeannie SunConrad DeQuattrosAIS&P 500NASDAQUS stock indexesdata centersprivate sector
– Investment in data centers is expected to continue despite pushback.
– Consumer sentiment is negative, but spending remains resilient.
– Political uncertainties may impact market perceptions.
– Tactical trading opportunities may arise from current volatility.
corporate earningsdata center investmentconsumer sentimentpolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
Where we sit is we're definitely closely watching things. We want to hear kind of how different candidates are positioned on policy recommendations. But at the end of the day, when you go back to where corporate earnings are, that remains strong. And for now, there isn't anything to suggest that the tide is turning there. Can you talk a little bit more about balancing the valuation premiums of growth equities and the AI-driven themes against this increasingly volatile fixed income and physical commodity landscape and also maybe tie in if I keep on the politics theme, the idea that we are getting data center pushback? We are getting data center pushback, but I think a lot of it is looking under the hood. Where is the investment still going to eventually happen? Right, you're seeing it at the state level and there's certainly, again, I think about this as corollary to some extent to that consumer sentiment versus spending comment made earlier. At the end of the day, when we think about just where some of the stickiness might be on all of these things, a lot of that is feeding into a lot of negative feelings by voters and you know at the end of the day kind of like where you're hearing politicians show up. But for us when you come out to the other side we do know that there's strong impulse on the private sector side to continue investing, to continue finding places where it's going to have those data centers.
Analysis

Corporate earnings remain strong, indicating no immediate signs of a market downturn despite rising volatility in fixed income and commodities. The private sector shows a strong impulse to continue investing, particularly in data centers, which may counteract negative voter sentiment and political uncertainties.

Smart money should note that while there is pushback on data centers, investment is still expected to flow at the state level, suggesting resilience in certain sectors. The disconnect between consumer sentiment and spending could present opportunities for tactical traders amidst broader market concerns.

12:55
PDT
Corporate profit margins are at all-time highs.
Conrad DeQuattrosDemocratic PartyConrad De
– Consumer spending remains resilient despite economic uncertainties.
– Midterm elections could significantly impact market dynamics.
– Market risks related to policy changes are not fully priced in.
– Higher gasoline prices are affecting consumer sentiment.
corporate profit marginsmidterm electionsconsumer resiliencemarket risks
▸ Full transcript
So our economist Conrad DeQuattros has laid this out really nicely for us because what you really want to look at, right, is the canary in the coal mine. There's been a lot of people calling for a turn in the cycle and hoping for, you know, a soft landing as the best scenario, but for us, what he looks at is actually corporate profit margins, and that I think is the trigger to a lot of behaviors that lead to recessions. You know, you have companies pulling back on hiring, even laying off people, you have pullbacks on capex, and right now corporate profit margins are steady at all-time highs, right? And so from that perspective, there isn't a signal to us that there's anything on the horizon that should change behaviors that would trigger us into a turn in the cycle, and so the economy for now remains strong. You know, we look underneath the hood, it's not just capex spending; there's certainly a huge amount of that, and it continues to, you know, be resilient, but the consumer has remained also incredibly resilient in light of things like higher gasoline prices and increased uncertainty. And we know that there's been a big mismatch between consumer spending and consumer sentiment. Well, speaking about gasoline prices, what's on the horizon? That also includes the midterms. And I'm wondering how you're thinking about that and what might be the most underappreciated market risk at this moment as we head into November. For example, are the markets pricing in that we could see a Democratic sweep, that both chambers could flip? And what would that look like? So, you know, for us, what we're really looking at is where the policy could potentially become reality. And right now,
Analysis

Corporate profit margins remain steady at all-time highs, indicating no immediate signals for a downturn in the economic cycle. Despite concerns over inflation and geopolitical risks, both corporate and consumer resilience suggest a strong economy for now.

The potential impact of the upcoming midterm elections on market sentiment is underappreciated, particularly regarding the possibility of a Democratic sweep. This could lead to significant policy changes that markets may not be fully pricing in at this moment.

12:52
PDT
Two-year yield up 15-16 basis points.
Jeannie SunCity WealthFederal ReserveAIFEDFUNDS
– Over 70% probability of Fed rate hike next week.
– Earnings and economy remain strong despite concerns.
– Market volatility is considered normal.
– Long-term investors should seek opportunities.
Fed policyinflation concernsmarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
Excuse me, your two-year yield is up about 15 to 16 basis points right now as traders start to price in a more than 70% probability that the Fed will hike rates at its meeting next week. Joining us here on this Thursday afternoon to count us down to the closing bells is Jeannie Sun, head of portfolio advisory at City Wealth. I do want to talk about this backdrop that we are in, which some people think is going to broaden with regard to a higher rate environment, a higher inflationary environment, and persistent uncertainty around energy, geopolitics, etc. I can understand why a tactical trader might look at all this and probably be flicking their chops, but for longer-term investors, is this a time to be worried or is this a time to also maybe look for those opportunities? Yeah, thanks for those questions. Great to be here. Look, when we take a step back, there's been all year an incredible wall of worry to climb. We have AI concerns, too much market concentration, geopolitical concerns, and rates on top of that. For us, when we take a step back, earnings remain strong, the economy remains strong, and there is no reason to pull back yet. There's definitely been a little bit of under the surface market cycles and many rotations. We're seeing some of that also in recent days. But for us, a lot of this volatility is normal still. It hasn't been outsized in any way. On a day-by-day basis, you can tie it to something, but when we think about rates as one of those impulses, we've had persistent inflation all year.
Analysis

The two-year yield has risen by about 15 to 16 basis points as traders price in a greater than 70% probability of a Fed rate hike at next week's meeting. Despite concerns over inflation and geopolitical issues, earnings and the economy remain strong, suggesting that long-term investors should not pull back yet.

The current market volatility is seen as normal, with underlying cycles and rotations occurring. Smart money should recognize that while there are significant worries, the fundamentals still support a resilient market environment.

12:50
PDT
S&P 500 down 0.6%, NASDAQ down 1%.
S&P 500NASDAQTylerJennifer ZappasajaBloombergFOMOUSFrancine LacroixBloomberg TelevisionHazlinda AnandSouth AfricaS&P 500NASDAQPRIVATECL=F
– Fourth straight day of losses for S&P 500.
– Rising oil prices impacting market sentiment.
– Concerns over interest rate outlook contributing to declines.
– Market movement reflects macroeconomic pressures.
market downturnoil price impactinterest rate concerns
▸ Full transcript
You don't want to be setting strategy in the middle of a transaction, that's for sure. Do it for the right reasons. Don't do it because of FOMO. We'll also learn lessons which we can apply to our work and daily lives. Tune into the podcast version of Leaders with Francine Lacroix. Listen and watch on Bloomberg Television or wherever you get your podcasts. She investors, top executives, global innovators. Join me for in-depth conversations with the biggest newsmakers on the day's top stories. Insight with Hazlinda Anand only on Bloomberg. Bringing you up to the minute economic news whenever and wherever it happens, I'm Jennifer Zappasaja in Mokopane, South Africa and this is Bloomberg. 10 minutes to go, we get to those closing bells and Tyler, it looks like we're headed for a fourth straight day of losses for the S&P 500. Actually, it hasn't happened since late June and obviously a lot of that you see on those first two lines of the screen tied to the bottom two lines on the screen. Right, we're seeing down across the board US stock indexes S&P 500 down now six tenths of one percent tech had been NASDAQ as well down now one percent but of course this really has to deal with those higher oil prices and the rate outlook that is way.
Analysis

The S&P 500 is on track for its fourth consecutive day of losses, a trend not seen since late June, primarily driven by rising oil prices and concerns over interest rate outlooks. This downward movement is reflected across US stock indexes, with the S&P 500 down 0.6% and the NASDAQ down 1%.

Smart money should note that the current market sentiment is heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors rather than individual company performance. The interplay between oil prices and interest rates is creating a challenging environment for equities, suggesting a cautious approach may be warranted in the near term.

12:44
PDT
Adobe has medium disruption risk from free AI tools.
AdobeOracleOpenAINew MexicoAI
– Enterprise product suite remains robust despite competition.
– Adobe is quickly rolling out its own AI tools.
– Macro concerns are overshadowing AI disruption fears.
– Regulatory issues may affect data center capacity for Oracle.
AI disruptiondata center capacityregulatory challenges
▸ Full transcript
Are just going to eat the lunch. Is that the case still? Because it seemed like some investors are now trying to bet against that. Yeah, so, Romain, when you look at Adobe, we think of them as a company with some medium risk of disruption, not either high or low. But what it is, is on the lower end of the spectrum, they will lose some users to free AI tools. But on the enterprise side, I think they have a good product suite because one of the things is, you are not letting companies go out and do their creative work. For that matter, a lot of their marketing software and other things with AI tools, free AI tools. And on top of that, Adobe has been extremely fast in rolling out its own AI package out there for people to use. Now, there are slowdown concerns, but I think that is more to do with macro than it is to do with AI disruption. I wanted to ask you about some of the political pushback when it comes to data centers. And what your expectation is at this point about whether or not we'll hear about it today, as I know that one of OpenAI's facilities, I believe in New Mexico, that Oracle provides the computing power for has faced some pretty significant pushback. Yeah, I think that is going to be the center of call today is how soon can you get some data center capacity? Are there any bottlenecks? Do you have enough financing to take care of that? I think as we just discussed, there is no shortage of demand, but the big question is, do you have the supply as well as the regulatory and other issues all squared up.
Analysis

Adobe faces medium disruption risk from free AI tools, but its enterprise product suite remains strong. The company is rapidly rolling out its own AI offerings, which may mitigate user losses despite macroeconomic slowdown concerns.

The key insight is that while Adobe may lose some users to free alternatives, its established enterprise solutions and swift AI integration could sustain its market position. Investors should monitor regulatory challenges affecting data center capacity, as these could impact Oracle's ability to meet demand amidst strong market interest.

12:42
PDT
PMI is adjusting its consumer value proposition without changing prices.
Philip Morris InternationalFDAIQOSJapanOracleAdobeBloombergPMICEOAIUnited StatesYatso GolchukPRIVATE
– IQOS remains a significant growth driver for PMI despite regulatory challenges.
– The company is focusing on marketing its products as lower-risk alternatives.
– PMI emphasizes dividends as a primary method of returning cash to shareholders.
– There is cautious optimism about growth in the smoke-free product category.
smoke-free productsdividend strategymarket dynamics
▸ Full transcript
and back on the growth. So I'm very optimistic about this and potential this year and beyond. We're adjusting obviously the value proposition to the consumers. We're going from a 15 to 20, not adjusting the price per can. So there is extra value to the consumers, but also reacting to the current market dynamics and market situations. Let's remember when we bought with this match four years ago. Zin was essentially the only or a lone player in the category. I mean, today you have other market participants, so you need to adjust your commercial and marketing strategy. But again, I think this is one of the best acquisitions PMI has done in its history. On the marketing strategy, is there any, I saw that the FDA has actually given in that modified risk order to kind of basically legally tell potential buyers that this is a lower risk nicotine product. Are you going to highlight that in your campaigns? Because I was taking a look at, you know, some of the, when it clicks, which just seems to be more lifestyle based, doesn't really get into some of the health issues. Is there a deliberate reason why you're not leaning more into trying to sell maybe the relative health differences of these smokeless products relative to cigarettes? Yeah, I guess you know it's irrelevant information obviously to smokers, not the questions, you know, through each channels and etc. You want to deliver this. I mean, I think also it's have normalization of the new category and the further incentive for those who very much you know using still combustible products to consider and try and move to this category. So give me a sense here about IQOS. It has done pretty well overseas. This is obviously the heated tobacco product. But there's still some concerns about how the excise tax is and some of the increasing regulation on some of those products might affect sales both internationally as well as any potential rollout here in the United States. Yes, so, you know, I cause is obviously today the growth engine of our smoke free propositions. I mean, it's a key contributor to us achieving more than a 40, 42% of revenues coming from a smoke free. Continuous growth in the majority of geographies. We have a particular situation this year in Japan and there was quite a heavy, if you like, excise increase, which obviously followed by the price increase. So category has temporary slowdown. It's growth, I guess, return it, sure. But so far, so good. And I believe once we put the 26 behind us, we're going to 27. I guess we'll resume. It's a past strong growth. Give me a sense here as to what you're waiting for to hear from the FDA to either be able to sell alumna here or... is for the dividends. And I think we have demonstrated since 2008 when we become the independent company that dividends is for us the most important avenue of generating returns to investors. Now, obviously it is a highly cash-generated business with the very high attractive gross margins and the net margin. So obviously once your balance sheet is into, you know, comfortable space. I mean, absence of ideas of how to allocate the capital and the buy-back is, you know, becoming a point on the agenda. But as I said, I mean, for us, the most preferred way of returning cash to shareholders for the division. Yatso Golchuk there, the group CEO for Philip Morris International, talking about that company's continued expansion. Now while that stock is up there are some two big catalysts coming up after the bell tonight. Oracle and Adobe expectations are high but as you can see the stocks are low. We're going to catch up with Ana Rock-Brona when we come back after the break as part of our stock of the hour and to set you up for that earnings report. This is Bloomberg. from the home of Active ETFs. in Bloomberg Insight. Join us. Bloomberg Power Players New York, September 10th, 2026. Some see heroes. Others only egos. We see the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some, the future of money to others. We see cryptos trillion dollar swings. The end of jobs, or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money.
Analysis

Philip Morris International (PMI) is optimistic about growth, adjusting its value proposition to consumers without changing can prices, reflecting a response to market dynamics. The company highlights the importance of its smoke-free products, particularly IQOS, which is a key revenue driver despite regulatory challenges in certain markets like Japan.

Smart money should note PMI's strategic focus on marketing its products as lower-risk alternatives to combustible tobacco, which could attract smokers looking for healthier options. Additionally, the company's commitment to returning cash to shareholders through dividends indicates a strong cash-generating business model, positioning it favorably in the current market environment.

12:40
PDT
PMI sees significant growth potential in the U.S. market post-Swedish Match acquisition.
Philip Morris InternationalSwedish MatchZINFDAJapanOracleAdobeBloombergAIBloomberg InsightBloomberg Power Players NewPRIVATEDXY
– The company is adjusting its product offerings to enhance consumer value.
– ZIN's modified risk status may boost its market appeal.
– PMI emphasizes dividends as a primary method of returning cash to shareholders.
– Regulatory challenges in international markets, particularly Japan, could impact growth.
smokeless productsU.S. market expansiondividend strategyregulatory challenges
▸ Full transcript
in Bloomberg Insight. Join us. Bloomberg Power Players New York, September 10th, 2026. Some see heroes. Others only egos. We see the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some, the future of money to others. We see cryptos trillion dollar swings. The end of jobs, or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money.
Analysis

Philip Morris International's acquisition of Swedish Match is positioning the company as a leader in the U.S. oral nicotine pouch market, which is rapidly expanding. The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, particularly with the introduction of larger pouch cans that enhance consumer value without increasing prices.

The shift towards smokeless products is gaining traction, and the FDA's modified risk order for ZIN could further legitimize this category. As PMI navigates regulatory challenges and market dynamics, its focus on dividends and shareholder returns remains a key strategy, indicating strong cash generation potential.

12:38
PDT
Philip Morris prioritizes dividends for shareholder returns.
Philip Morris InternationalYatso GolchukOracleAdobeBloombergCEOAna RockPRIVATE
– The company is expanding its market presence in the U.S. post-Swedish Match acquisition.
– Upcoming earnings reports from Oracle and Adobe could influence market dynamics.
– Current stock prices for Oracle and Adobe are low despite high expectations.
– Market sentiment may shift based on the performance of these tech giants.
dividend strategymarket expansionearnings volatility
▸ Full transcript
Dividends are for us the most important avenue of generating returns to investors. Since 2008, when we became an independent company, we have demonstrated this commitment. It is a highly cash-generative business with very high attractive gross margins and net margins. Once your balance sheet is in a comfortable space, the absence of ideas on how to allocate capital and the buyback becomes a point on the agenda. For us, the most preferred way of returning cash to shareholders is through dividends. Yatso Golchuk, the group CEO for Philip Morris International, is talking about the company's continued expansion. While that stock is up, there are two big catalysts coming up after the bell tonight: Oracle and Adobe. Expectations are high, but as you can see, the stocks are low. We will catch up with Ana Rock-Brona when we come back after the break as part of our stock of the hour and to set you up for that earnings report. This is Bloomberg, from the home of Active ETFs.
Analysis

Philip Morris International emphasizes dividends as the primary method for returning cash to shareholders, highlighting their strong cash generation and attractive margins. The company is also focused on expansion, particularly following the acquisition of Swedish Match, which positions them well in the U.S. market.

Smart money should note that while the stock is currently up, upcoming earnings reports from Oracle and Adobe could impact market sentiment, especially given the low stock prices despite high expectations. This juxtaposition may present a buying opportunity or signal caution depending on the results.

12:36
PDT
PMI's acquisition of Swedish Match enhances its position in the U.S. oral nicotine market.
Philip Morris InternationalSwedish MatchFDAIQOSJapanUnited States
– IQOS is a significant growth driver for PMI's smoke-free revenue segment.
– Regulatory challenges, including excise tax increases, are impacting sales in international markets.
– PMI is adjusting its product offerings to provide more value to consumers.
– The FDA's decisions on product approvals will be crucial for PMI's U.S. market strategy.
smoke-free productsregulatory challengesmarket dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Have normalization of the new category and the further incentive for those who are still using combustible products to consider and try and move to this category. So give me a sense here about IQOS. It has done pretty well overseas. This is obviously the heated tobacco product. But there are still some concerns about how the excise tax and some of the increasing regulation on those products might affect sales both internationally as well as any potential rollout here in the United States. Yes, so, you know, IQOS is obviously today the growth engine of our smoke-free propositions. I mean, it's a key contributor to us achieving more than 40-42% of revenues coming from smoke-free. Continuous growth in the majority of geographies. We have a particular situation this year in Japan, and there was quite a heavy, if you like, excise increase, which was obviously followed by a price increase. So the category has seen a temporary slowdown. Its growth, I guess, will return, sure. But so far, so good. And I believe once we put 2026 behind us, we're going to 2027. I guess we'll resume its past strong growth. Give me a sense here as to what you're waiting for to hear from the FDA to either be able to sell alumna here or...
Analysis

Philip Morris International's acquisition of Swedish Match is positioning the company to capitalize on the growing oral nicotine pouch market in the U.S., with a focus on expanding its portfolio and market leadership. Despite facing regulatory challenges and excise tax increases in international markets, PMI remains optimistic about resuming strong growth in its smoke-free product segment, particularly with IQOS as a key growth driver.

Smart money should note that PMI's strategy to adjust its product offerings and marketing in response to market dynamics could enhance its competitive edge. The company's ability to navigate regulatory hurdles while promoting lower-risk alternatives may attract a new consumer base, potentially reshaping market share in the nicotine product landscape.

12:34
PDT
PMI is optimistic about growth post-Swedish Match acquisition.
Philip Morris InternationalSwedish MatchFDAZINPMI
– Product offerings are being adjusted to provide more value without price increases.
– The oral nicotine category is becoming more competitive.
– PMI plans to adapt marketing strategies to highlight lower risk products.
– FDA's modified risk order for ZIN could enhance product appeal.
market strategy adjustmentregulatory impactconsumer value proposition
▸ Full transcript
and back on the growth. So I'm very optimistic about this and potential this year and beyond. We're adjusting obviously the value proposition to the consumers. We're going from a 15 to 20, not adjusting the price per can. So there is extra value to the consumers, but also reacting to the current market dynamics and market situations. Let's remember when we bought Swedish Match four years ago. ZIN was essentially the only or a lone player in the category. I mean, today you have other market participants, so you need to adjust your commercial and marketing strategy. But again, I think this is one of the best acquisitions PMI has done in its history. On the marketing strategy, is there any, I saw that the FDA has actually given ZIN that modified risk order to kind of basically legally tell potential buyers that this is a lower risk nicotine product. Are you going to highlight that in your campaigns? Because I was taking a look at, you know, some of the, when it clicks, which just seems to be more lifestyle based, doesn't really get into some of the health issues. Is there a deliberate reason why you're not leaning more into trying to sell maybe the relative health differences of these smokeless products relative to cigarettes? Yeah, I guess you know it's irrelevant information obviously to smokers, not the questions, you know, through each channels and etc. You want to deliver this. I mean, I think also it's.
Analysis

Philip Morris International (PMI) is optimistic about growth following its acquisition of Swedish Match, adjusting its product offerings to enhance consumer value without increasing prices. The company is also navigating a competitive landscape in the oral nicotine category, emphasizing the importance of adapting marketing strategies to highlight the lower risk of its products compared to traditional cigarettes.

Smart money should note that PMI's strategic adjustments in product value and marketing could position it favorably against competitors in the evolving nicotine market. The FDA's modified risk order for ZIN presents an opportunity for PMI to differentiate its products, potentially attracting health-conscious consumers and expanding market share.

12:32
PDT
Philip Morris is expanding its presence in the U.S. market through Swedish Match acquisition.
Philip Morris InternationalSwedish MatchZINYatsik Olcek
– Focus on cotton pouches as a leading product in the oral category.
– Market share targets for ZIN are optimistic despite past inventory issues.
– Larger pouch sizes may enhance revenue and margins.
– The shift towards alternatives to cigarettes reflects changing consumer preferences.
market expansionproduct innovation
▸ Full transcript
How the U.S. now is becoming the biggest opportunity for the company, primarily on the back of that acquisition of Swedish Match, which brought all of those in pouches that you see scattered around everywhere. Here's part of that conversation with Yatsik Olcek that happened a little bit earlier. A big bulk of, you know, Philip Morris International's business is international, excluding the U.S. The U.S. is the addition to our territory. We're very pleased with the acquisition of Swedish Match; not only does it allow us to reenter, if you like, the U.S. market, but also, very importantly, allows us to play the leading role in the oral category in the new cotton pouches. So the acquisition in the U.S. was all about the new cotton pouches. The category is developing very well. We're expanding our portfolio. We are the market leader. I think it's another alternative which allows people who still smoke cigarettes to migrate from cigarettes to much better alternatives. With some of the inventory issues that we saw with ZIN earlier, I mean, obviously, it's been a runaway phenomenon, but you ran into some inventory issues. I know that's sort of been addressed here, but give me a sense as to what your year-end market share target is for ZIN and whether adding larger cans with 15 to 20 pouches actually helps on the revenue side but also on the margin side. We just better recently open up our...
Analysis

Philip Morris International is positioning itself to capitalize on the U.S. market following its acquisition of Swedish Match, focusing on the growing oral category with cotton pouches. The company aims to lead in this segment, providing alternatives for smokers transitioning from traditional cigarettes.

Despite recent inventory challenges with ZIN, the company is optimistic about its market share targets and the potential revenue and margin benefits from introducing larger pouch sizes. This strategic pivot highlights the company's adaptability in a competitive landscape, which could attract investor interest.

12:30
PDT
Meta upgraded to overweight by JP Morgan.
MetaJP MorganSynopsisWells FargoAmerican EagleMorgan StanleyMacy'sRossWalmartBloomingdale'sBlue MercuryNordstromPRIVATEDXY
– Macy's projects a Q3 loss of 20 cents, below expectations.
– Wells Fargo upgrades Synopsis on improving AI demand.
– American Eagle's price target trimmed by Morgan Stanley.
– Macy's struggles with market share against discount retailers.
AI demandretail sector challengesdepartment store competition
▸ Full transcript
Equity indices built on opinions? That's the old way. The new way is Bloomberg equity indices built using transparent rules-based methodologies that are more responsive to changes in the markets, powered by 450 billion daily data points and backed by research from hundreds of global experts, delivering benchmarks driven by the markets, not opinions. Bloomberg equity indices get evolved benchmarks for today's equity markets. Excellent reporting. I'm Danny Burger and this is Bloomberg Deals. Every Wednesday at 5 p.m. London time. Only on Bloomberg Television. It's a multi-trillion dollar industry. We'll show you what's happening in ETFs like no one else. ETF IQ Mondays on Bloomberg at 3:30 p.m. here in New York. This is the countdown to the close. I'm Romaine Bostic. And I'm Tyler Kendall. The majority of S&P stocks are in the red for a fourth.
Analysis

Meta received an upgrade to overweight from JP Morgan following the launch of its new AI assistant, although shares are down about 1%. Meanwhile, Macy's is facing challenges with a projected loss in Q3, leading to a downward revision in its outlook, which reflects broader concerns about the department store sector's competitiveness.

12:26
PDT
Macy's is projected to earn about $2.20 this year.
Macy'sBloomingdale'sTony SpringRossTargetSACsNeiman MarcusNordstromPE
– The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 10 times.
– Bloomingdale's is performing well and contributing positively to Macy's competitiveness.
– Macy's is attempting to preserve market share through increased marketing and price cuts.
– Investor sentiment towards department stores remains low.
retail sector challengesdepartment store valuation
▸ Full transcript
We'll kind of have to take the company's word for that because unfortunately Macy's doesn't give us a lot of financial information on Bloomingdale's. But we do know that it's been doing really well in the last few years. I think it has benefited from the problems at SACs and Neiman Marcus in that luxury space. Nobody's really opening any new luxury department stores anymore. Nordstrom has downsized and nobody else is opening new ones either. So it is kind of a stable part of the business. I think it is a growing part of the business and it does help Macy's to be more competitive against discount stores like Ross and Target and others that really have taken so much share from the company. And that's really part of Tony Spring's plan here is to make Macy's more of a standout rather than just another apparel retailer. Well, he seems to be doing that if we're going to be objective and fair about it. But I am curious to go back to where we started, which is why aren't we seeing a little bit more of this reflected in the stock prices? I know it's had a pretty decent run up. I assume it's pricing in a lot of what's already happened. But why aren't we seeing a little bit more of a pop, given there definitely seems to be legs to what he's put in place? I think investors just really have a very low opinion of department stores overall. You know, the company right now, Macy's is gonna earn about $2.20 this year. So the stock is trading into the PE of about 10 times. And you know, I do think it's a bit undervalued. My fair buy estimates around $25.50. Yeah. the reality is people just don't want to pay a big price for department store companies. And I think because of that I think.
Analysis

Macy's is struggling to reflect its operational improvements in stock prices, despite a solid performance from Bloomingdale's and efforts to enhance competitiveness against discount retailers. Investors remain skeptical about department store valuations, leading to a low price-to-earnings ratio, which may indicate an undervaluation of Macy's stock.

12:24
PDT
Macy's beat earnings estimates but lowered guidance for Q3.
Macy'sRossWalmartDavid SwartzMorningstarUSSo MacyBlue Mercury
– Projected loss of 20 cents in Q3 raises concerns.
– Increased marketing spend and price cuts are strategies to maintain market share.
– Macy's faces stiff competition from discount retailers.
– Long-term viability is uncertain amid ongoing market share losses.
retail competitionconsumer spendingearnings guidance
▸ Full transcript
David Swartz joins us right now, seeing your equity analyst over at Morningstar. You've got a hold in a $25.50 price target, a stock right now trading right around $20.50. And it gets to this idea, David, as to what investors want to see, six straight quarters of comp sales growth, something this company hasn't seen in years yet a lot of questions about macro conditions. What's going to happen next? Yeah, I think that is the concern. Macy's, as you mentioned, beat the estimates for the quarter but people were focused on I think the outlook for the third quarter. Macy's is projected to have a loss in the third quarter of about 20 cents and it was expected to be around break even. So Macy's did kind of guide down the third quarter based on expenses. I think that what Macy's is doing right now is trying to preserve sales by spending a little bit more on marketing and also cutting some prices to try to make sure that Macy's can hold its market share. This is certainly a big problem for Macy's because realistically Macy's, like other US department stores, has been losing market share for many years to stores like Ross and Walmart and many others. And so any kind of economic downturn really affects Macy's more than others because Macy's is just in a weak competitive position to begin with. I wanted to ask what your view is on the long-term viability when we see the company's growth heavily supported by Bloomingdale's and Blue Mercury. You also have some of these higher...
Analysis

Macy's reported earnings that beat estimates, but the outlook for the third quarter is concerning, projecting a loss of 20 cents instead of break-even. The company is attempting to preserve market share by increasing marketing spend and cutting prices, but it faces significant competition from discount retailers.

The long-term viability of Macy's is questionable as it continues to lose market share to competitors like Ross and Walmart. The economic downturn could exacerbate these challenges, highlighting the need for strategic adjustments to regain competitive positioning.

12:22
PDT
Meta upgraded to overweight by JP Morgan; shares down 1%.
MetaJP MorganSynopsisWells FargoAmerican EagleMorgan StanleyJPAIJennifer ZabasajaSouth AfricaWall StreetPRIVATEMETA
– Synopsis upgraded to overweight by Wells Fargo; price target raised to $475.
– American Eagle's price target trimmed by Morgan Stanley to $17 after disappointing sales.
– Synopsis shares up for a second straight day.
– Meta's AI assistant launch not boosting stock as expected.
AI advancementsTech sector dynamicsRetail earnings pressure
▸ Full transcript
2026 make news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja in Mokopane, South Africa, and this is Bloomberg. Time now for our top calls, the big movers on the back of analysts' recommendations. We start off with Meta; JP Morgan upgraded to overweight after the launch of Meta's new AI assistant news. The analysis frontier models at the core of Meta's product and monetization pipeline. The shares are down about one percent. Nevertheless, next up, Synopsis; Wells Fargo upgraded the chip design company to overweight on the back of improving AI demand. The price target goes to $475 from $450. The shares are up for a second straight day. And last up, American Eagle; Morgan Stanley trimmed its price target to $17 after the apparel firm's second quarter comp sales growth came in a touch shy of Wall Street estimates. Those shares had an awful day.
Analysis

Meta's shares are down about one percent despite JP Morgan upgrading the stock to overweight following the launch of its new AI assistant. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo upgraded Synopsis to overweight, raising the price target to $475 due to improving AI demand, resulting in a second consecutive day of gains for the shares.

The market's reaction to Meta's upgrade indicates skepticism about the immediate impact of AI advancements on its monetization pipeline. Conversely, the positive sentiment around Synopsis suggests a growing confidence in AI's role in driving demand for chip design, which could signal a broader trend in tech investments.

12:19
PDT
Dated Brent crude prices have risen above $120 per barrel.
BrentChinaKevin CrowleyBloomberg NewsMacy'sCEOCL=FPRIVATEDXY
– Increased demand from China is contributing to price spikes.
– Global oil storage levels have decreased, heightening market sensitivity.
– Physical market prices are rising faster than futures prices.
– Potential for demand destruction if prices continue to rise.
oil market dynamicsgeopolitical risksinflationary pressures
▸ Full transcript
Since when we talk about oil, we're mostly talking about the futures price. That's right. Yeah. It's been quite an interesting sort of dynamic really. And we have seen the price that the price that refineries are paying for physical cargo of crude is also on the rise. Is it what's called dated Brent actually tops one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel today? So as you say, normally when we talk about oil, we're talking about futures, which represents kind of a trader view of the world, but now we're seeing an even greater spike really in the physical markets, which suggests some real-world tightness. Now those dated Brent numbers actually rose to about one hundred forty dollars a barrel earlier on this year, so we're not quite at those highs yet, but the trend is certainly quite concerning these last couple of days. All right, Kevin Crowley, senior U.S. oil reporter at Bloomberg News. Kevin, thanks so much. And coming up, shares of Macy's falling after earnings; we will break down the retailer's report. Romain spoke to the CEO earlier today. This is the close on Bloomberg.
Analysis

Oil prices are experiencing significant upward pressure, with dated Brent crude reaching over $120 a barrel, indicating real-world tightness in the market. This spike is attributed to increased demand from China and reduced global oil storage, which has left the market vulnerable to price fluctuations.

The current dynamics suggest that the oil market is less buffered against shocks, making it more sensitive to geopolitical events. Investors should be cautious as high prices could lead to demand destruction, impacting consumption patterns and potentially slowing economic growth.

12:17
PDT
Oil prices are fluctuating between $80 and under $80 a barrel.
Saudi ArabiaChinaKevinMiddle EastCL=FUSDCNHDXY
– Increased attacks in the Straits and Saudi production cuts are impacting the market.
– Global oil storage has significantly decreased, reducing market buffers.
– China's renewed oil purchases are contributing to price increases.
– Demand destruction may limit further price hikes if consumers reduce consumption.
geopolitical riskoil market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
But let's talk about what's happening right now because oil is traded within that band of $80 to under $80 a barrel at this point for the last few months. So what's different this time is that the uptick in attacks in the Straits and Saudi Arabia with its production cuts. What's really happening in the market? Yes, really there's three things that have changed. As you see, the conflict has intensified on the ground is the first thing. But secondly, we've drawn down a lot of the oil that was in storage around the world in the early days of the war. So that means the pantry, if you will, is not well stocked, which means the market is starting to respond quite aggressively to any news because it doesn't have the buffers that were in place a few months ago. Another change is we're starting to see China buy oil again, which is helping to bid up prices. China had pulled back from the market previously, which acted kind of as a relief valve. So those three things really are combining to see the spikes that we've seen in the last couple of days. I mean, you understand the mechanics of this market, Kevin. I mean, barring an end to the situation in the Middle East and for that matter of the situation in Ukraine, what actually arrests this price increase? Well, the obvious thing is demand destruction and prices just get too high for people to pay and so people stop pulling back on their consumption.
Analysis

Oil prices are currently fluctuating between $80 and under $80 a barrel, influenced by increased attacks in the Straits and Saudi Arabia's production cuts. The market is responding aggressively to news due to a significant drawdown in global oil storage, coupled with renewed demand from China.

Smart money should note that the lack of storage buffers means any geopolitical tensions can lead to rapid price spikes. Additionally, the potential for demand destruction could limit price increases if consumers pull back due to high costs, indicating a delicate balance in the market.

12:13
PDT
Debt management through growth is essential.
Cam HarveyDuke UniversityPhilip Morris InternationalConstance SchwartzSMAC EntertainmentJason RobbinsDraftKingsMatt KingFanaticsPMICEOSMACPRIVATE
– Current spending is viewed as future investment.
– AI advancements are expected to drive significant growth.
– Concerns over fiscal prudence may be overstated.
– The U.S. is in a prime position to benefit from growth opportunities.
debt managementgrowth investmentAI advancementscorporate yields
▸ Full transcript
And given the difficulty of cutting spending, and given that nobody wants to increase taxes, one simple way out to reduce our debt is to increase growth. And this spending is the investment in the future that is necessary to participate in this upside opportunity. Cam, I always appreciate it. I always appreciate your honesty, your candor, and more importantly, your well-researched opinions. It's Cam Harvey, professor of finance over at Duke University kicking us off to the close when we come back. We're going to take a pivot here. We're going to actually talk about a smoke-free future for the tobacco industry. PMI, of course, a company formerly known as Philip Morris International, well, they see big opportunity in that. We had a chance to catch up with the CEO. He'll be on in just a second. Plus, from reshaping business to scaling it, Constance Schwartz, Marini co-founder and CEO of SMAC Entertainment joins us live to talk turning pro-athletes' personal brands into growing ventures. The big deal looking forward to that interview as the power player summit in Bloomberg continues upstairs but right downstairs will have Constance we're also gonna have Jason Robbins the CEO of DraftKings and Matt King the CEO of Fanatics all that and more coming up in a bit right here on the close right here on Bloomberg.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted the necessity of increasing growth to manage the $40 trillion debt, emphasizing that current spending is an investment in future opportunities. Despite concerns over fiscal prudence, the U.S. is positioned to capitalize on growth, particularly through advancements in AI and corporate investments.

12:11
PDT
U.S. investments in AI could lead to substantial growth opportunities.
U.S.Research AffiliateAI
– Concerns exist about the prudence of spending, with some funds potentially wasted.
– Half of current capital expenditures may not contribute to new growth.
– Historical trends show the U.S. has successfully taken risks for growth.
– The narrative around growth expectations is shifting positively.
AI investmentcapital expenditureseconomic growth
▸ Full transcript
Similar then, not necessarily to the negative effects that I think some people are predicting. Does it worry you at all that the spending is there, but it may not be done in a prudent and wise way? So there will be some of these investments that don't turn out. However, this is a historic opportunity. And the U.S. is in the lead. And the U.S. could be the prime beneficiary for a surge in growth. So this is the time to take some risk. The rewards are very substantial. So we could take the position of other countries and underinvest in AI, but we would pay the price of lower growth. I'm not saying that a good outcome is guaranteed. What I am saying is that if you want growth, you need to take some risk. The U.S. has been very good at that historically, and they're certainly all in right now. And that's exactly, in my opinion, the position that we should be in if we want to capitalize on the growth opportunities. Are we conflating, though, at times, activity, capital market activities with actual growth? I didn't even cite research from Research Affiliate that talked about all of this CapEx spending, but said about half of that is just going to replace obsolete hardware rather than the investment.
Analysis

The U.S. is positioned to capitalize on a surge in growth through strategic investments in AI, despite concerns over prudent spending. While some capital expenditures may merely replace obsolete hardware, the potential for significant growth remains if risks are embraced.

12:09
PDT
S&P 500 down 0.6%, Nasdaq down 0.9%.
BloombergOracleSaudi ArabiaChristine LagardeU.S.Federal ReserveBrent crudeAICOVID
– 30-year Treasury yield up 7 basis points, highest since 2007.
– Brent crude oil at $107 per barrel, highest since May.
– Corporate yields rising due to increased debt supply.
– Expectations for economic growth are on the rise.
interest rateseconomic growthAI advancementsdebt supply
▸ Full transcript
Just pay the interest on debt. But if you look more fundamentally, growth has not been that impressive, but the expectation is that it will be more impressive. Unemployment is low. The long-term interest rate that we're talking about today is back to where it was pre-global financial crisis. And that's important. The rate today is not abnormal. It is not remarkable. What was remarkable was when the yields went down so dramatically, given the global financial crisis, given COVID, and things like that. Those were remarkable events. Where we are today is not abnormal. So at low unemployment, inflation is above the target, but it's not hugely above the target. We've got a record high stock market. So you put all that together. It looks pretty good to me. And you asked for data points, what we're talking about is the expectations of growth. So if you look at surveys of economic growth, they are on the upward trajectory. So we're about to see some of these promise gains from AI. And you also mentioned the pressure on corporate yields. And we have seen corporate yields go up purely because there's a big supply of debt to finance.
Analysis

U.S. stock indices are down, with the S&P 500 falling about six-tenths of a percent and the Nasdaq down nine-tenths, as inflation and rate outlook concerns weigh heavily on the market. Rising yields, particularly on the long end, have reached levels not seen since 2007, driven by inflation pressures and a shrinking buyer base in the bond market.

Despite the negative sentiment surrounding inflation and debt levels, the current long-term interest rates are not abnormal compared to historical standards. The expectation of growth, particularly from AI advancements, is gaining traction, suggesting that the market may be pricing in a more optimistic economic outlook than the prevailing narrative indicates.

12:07
PDT
Long-term interest rates are influenced by growth expectations.
U.S.AIFederal ReserveRBCOracleFreeport-McMoRanSouthern CopperTeck ResourcesAero-CopperCapstone-CopperBrentChristine Lagarde
– Break-even inflation remains stable at 2.4%.
– Analysts predict significant growth in the next two quarters.
– Current debt levels are concerning but not driving interest rates.
– Market sentiment may shift towards growth-oriented investments.
debt levelsgrowth expectationsAI productivityinflation concerns
▸ Full transcript
Foreigners, a logical thing to do would be to inflate. That would be kind of a technical default. However, we do not see that expectation of inflation in the break-even inflation. So the 2.4% break-even, as I said, is relatively constant. Even though I agree with you, $40 trillion is a lot. We often look at that relative to our GDP, which is a mistake, because the debt should be compared to the wealth of the U.S. rather than the income of the U.S. Nevertheless, it is large, it is worrisome, but that's not where the action is coming from in terms of the long-term interest rates today. Again, to emphasize, in my opinion, this is purely a growth story. We've had growth that's been unimpressive for the last few quarters. People are waiting for the AI productivity gain; the next two quarters, I believe, will be dramatically different and print growth that could be double or triple what we've seen over the last few quarters. I was going to follow on the debt, but maybe I'll go to growth instead. Is there a data point that would change your mind when it comes to the projections and growth in this country? What are you watching for that could actually paint a different story?
Analysis

Long-term interest rates are currently driven by growth expectations rather than inflation concerns, despite the significant $40 trillion U.S. debt. Analysts anticipate that upcoming quarters may show substantial growth, potentially doubling or tripling recent performance metrics.

The stability of the break-even inflation rate at 2.4% suggests that market participants are not pricing in inflation risks, indicating a focus on real growth potential. This could signal a shift in investor sentiment towards growth-oriented assets as productivity gains from AI materialize.

12:05
PDT
Break-even rate stable at 2.4%, indicating focus on real rates.
CamIranU.S. TreasuryGDPTIPS
– Rising rates may reflect growth expectations rather than inflation fears.
– $40 trillion debt figure may not directly correlate with negative market sentiment.
– Market dynamics suggest a potential shift in economic outlook.
– Investors should reassess the implications of real rate increases.
real ratesGDP growth expectationsfiscal policy
▸ Full transcript
Look at the Treasury nominal yields and the TIPS; we get something called the break-even rate, which you quoted at 2.4 percent. That rate is unchanged over the past year, so September of 2025, 2.4 percent. Even from February 28th, which was the date of the attack on Iran, the break-even has gone up by 15 basis points. It's trivial. This is not an inflation story. So that is really important. It is a real rate story. The expected real rates have increased. We know from Economics 101 that there is a link between the expected real rate and expected GDP growth, inflation-adjusted. For me, I see the narrative: oh inflation, oh $40 trillion in debt, everything's riskier, rates are going up, it's bad news. But there's an alternative narrative that this reflects growth expectations. Well, let me just play devil's advocate here. I mean, you make $40 trillion sound like it's nothing, Cam. It's a lot, and I do get your point, and obviously, you know a lot more about this from a fundamental perspective. But we talk about this idea that fiscal pressures may not necessarily directly correspond to higher expected inflation.
Analysis

The break-even rate remains unchanged at 2.4%, indicating that the current market dynamics are more about real rates than inflation. This suggests that rising rates may reflect growth expectations rather than just fiscal pressures and inflation concerns.

Despite the alarming $40 trillion debt figure, the market's reaction may not be as negative as perceived; instead, it could signal confidence in future economic growth. Smart money should consider the implications of real rate increases on GDP growth expectations, which may not align with traditional inflation narratives.

12:03
PDT
Brent crude prices surged to $107, impacting energy stocks.
Brent crudeUS producer pricesUS CPIECBChristine LagardeFedTreasuryAIdata centersUSCPIPresident Christine LagardeFEDFUNDS
– US producer prices are running hot, influencing CPI expectations.
– 70% chance traders expect Fed action next week.
– Treasury auctions are yielding the highest rates since 2001.
– AI infrastructure is affecting long-duration bond issuance.
energy pricesinflation riskFed policyAI investment
▸ Full transcript
Energy stocks are under pressure due to a 50% surge in Brent crude prices back to that $107 level. This is a big part of the reason why we saw US producer prices today in that report run hot, and it's why we might see tomorrow's US CPI reading read even hotter. It's why ECB President Christine Lagarde called her rate hike today a 'no brainer.' It's why traders are pricing in a 70% chance the Fed next week will finally get off the sofa, and it's why today's Treasury auction had to offer the highest yields since 2001. The current bond market and the forces that are driving yields higher are definitely not just about the deficit. There are concerns that we don't know the Fed path, which occurred after the July meeting. There is a shrinking buyer base of price-insensitive buyers, thinking about central banks that are just not in the market as much, and that's got to be absorbed by private markets. Then there's the AI build-out, with AI data centers in the back end of the curve issuing long duration because they have long duration infrastructure assets that they're building. This is part of the debate here, with the prevailing narrative saying long-term yields are rising because investors fear inflation, federal borrowing, and deteriorating fiscal credibility. However, the counter-argument is that the market may actually be pricing in a higher real equilibrium.
Analysis

Energy stocks are under pressure due to a 50% surge in Brent crude prices, now at $107, which is contributing to higher US producer prices and potentially hotter CPI readings. This environment has led to expectations of a 70% chance that the Fed will take action next week, as Treasury auctions are yielding the highest rates since 2001.

The market is grappling with a shrinking base of price-insensitive buyers, which is forcing private markets to absorb the impact of rising yields. Additionally, the ongoing AI build-out is influencing long-duration bond issuance, suggesting that the market may be pricing in a higher real equilibrium rather than just inflation fears.

12:01
PDT
S&P 500 down 0.6%, Nasdaq down 0.9%
OracleSaudi ArabiaBrentS&P 500NasdaqPMAINew YorkRomaine BosticTyler KendallPRIVATEP 500
– 30-year yield rises to 5.36%, highest since 2007
– Brent crude oil at $107/barrel, highest since May
– Oracle's earnings report could reveal significant AI spending risks
– Saudi Arabia's production at lowest level since 1990
inflation concernsAI spending riskenergy prices
▸ Full transcript
The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. This is the close. The rate conversation shifts again, but the consensus on why is still elusive. Live from Studio 2 here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York, I'm Romaine Bostic. And I'm Tyler Kendall. We're kicking you off to the closing bell here in the U.S. on this Thursday. Stock indices are down across the board. The S&P 500 is down right now about six-tenths of one percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq is also down now nine-tenths of one percent as inflation and the rate outlook really weigh on markets. We saw yields rise across the curve today on the long end, reaching levels that we haven't seen since 2007. Your 30-year is right now up seven basis points, trading at 5.36%. Of course, energy is weighing on the inflation picture. Romain, we're seeing Brent right now at $107 a barrel. That is the highest level since May of this year as there is an uptick in attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, but we also heard from Saudi Arabia, which is seeing its lowest level of production since 1990. Those are some of the catalysts that have brought us to 3 PM Eastern time. Another catalyst up ahead one hour from now: those earnings from Oracle, the poster child for everything right and everything wrong about the AI boom. AI cloud sales at the company are expected to double, but that's going to be overshadowed by the company having the highest exposure to the spending risk among the major AI players with the debt burden rising.
Analysis

U.S. stock indices are down across the board, with the S&P 500 declining by about six-tenths of one percent and the Nasdaq down nine-tenths of one percent, as inflation and rate outlook concerns weigh heavily on the market. The 30-year yield has risen to levels not seen since 2007, while Brent crude oil prices have reached $107 a barrel, the highest since May, driven by geopolitical tensions and reduced production from Saudi Arabia.

Smart money should note that Oracle's upcoming earnings report is critical, as the company is positioned at the intersection of AI growth and spending risk, with expectations for AI cloud sales to double. However, the rising debt burden may overshadow these gains, indicating potential volatility in tech stocks tied to AI developments.

11:59
PDT
Copper prices indicate strong global demand despite miner stock pressures.
Freeport-McMoRanSouthern CopperTech ResourcesAero-CopperCapstone-CopperRBCOracleORCLCooper Companies
– Oracle's stock volatility suggests significant market expectations ahead of earnings.
– Tariff concerns are impacting copper miners' performance.
– Healthcare sector pressures are affecting med tech stocks like Cooper Companies.
– Strategic reviews in companies can lead to unexpected stock movements.
copper market dynamicstech earnings volatilitytariff impactshealthcare sector performance
▸ Full transcript
Tariffs are weighing on concerns. What's interesting is the movement you're seeing in copper miners, not just Freeport-McMoRan but also some of its other peers like Southern Copper, Tech Resources, Aero-Copper, and Capstone-Copper, all seeing pressure. RBC has some strategies discussing copper in general and how it ties to the global economy, which is trading around records right now, potentially bringing that a little bit down. This is something to watch as it goes into many different products, presenting a double-edged sword regarding stock prices. Overall, copper doing well is a good sign for the global economy. We do have one big tech name, Oracle, down about 4%. This is what you want to watch; the options positioning is higher, with more than a 10% swing in either direction potentially when it reports after the bell.
Analysis

Copper miners, including Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper, are facing pressure amid tariff concerns, despite copper prices trading near record levels, indicating strong demand. Oracle's stock is down about 4% ahead of its earnings report, with options positioning suggesting a potential swing of over 10%, highlighting market volatility around tech earnings.

11:56
PDT
Cooper Companies (COO) is down significantly today.
Cooper CompaniesCOOS&P 500EPSS&P 500
– Adjusted EPS and revenue forecasts missed expectations.
– The anticipated spin-off of the surgical unit did not happen.
– Healthcare sector's S&P 500 weighting is only 9%.
– Tech sector dominates with a 40% weighting.
healthcare sector volatilitymed tech challenges
▸ Full transcript
Just meant in she's going to just explain some stocks do I like that. I like just blaming what do you talk? You're you have the Cooper Companies on your list today? Well, I mean this is fun. I like the I feel like I'm about to call a big game on the sidelines. A lot of feedback from people about the head. No, I love it. But look at that, of course, you're talking about Cooper Companies, the ticker is COO. So this is the worst decline in the S&P 500 today. I don't have the live pricing in front of you because I don't have the terminal. All right, so I'd be on pace for its worst day since May 2025. So I made a little bit of a note that this is in the med tech space. If you look overall in healthcare today, now that's one of the pressures that we've seen specifically in the medical devices. So there's a couple of things that's weighing on this stock and the first part is its forecast for its fiscal year was adjusted EPS as well as revenue came in below expectations. Some of that had to do with the vision side of things as far as that unit, but then another part of that there had been a strategic review and they were thinking about potentially spinning off the surgical unit side of it. That didn't happen, so that's unfortunately why you're seeing this stock pressured right now because there was the anticipation that maybe there could be more synergies when you're talking about kind of the M&A type space. And then also healthcare because the weighting is only about 9% in the S&P 500, so tech for instance, I mean that's closer to a 40% weighting. So even though this is the one.
Analysis

Cooper Companies (COO) is experiencing its worst decline in the S&P 500 today, with adjusted EPS and revenue forecasts falling below expectations. The anticipated spin-off of its surgical unit did not occur, contributing to the stock's pressure amid broader challenges in the medical devices sector.

Smart money should note that the healthcare sector's weighting in the S&P 500 is only about 9%, compared to tech's nearly 40%. This discrepancy highlights the potential for significant volatility in healthcare stocks like COO, especially when facing operational setbacks and strategic missteps.

11:54
PDT
Apple struggles with sports league negotiations.
AppleNFLMLSFormula OneAmazonCVSTurner networksNBCComcastDisneyRandy LevineCandice Storie LeePRIVATE
– NFL and MLS prefer partners that meet their demands.
– Amazon is viewed as a stable and reliable partner for sports leagues.
– Dissatisfaction from MLS could affect Apple's sports strategy.
– Traditional broadcasters face challenges in maintaining partnerships.
sports broadcastingmedia partnerships
▸ Full transcript
Daily with Carol Masser and Tim Stenevich on Bloomberg Radio and Television. Alright everybody, we are back on Bloomberg Business Week Daily. Carol Masser, Tim Stenevich, live here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City. Up on the big stage, power players. Continuing a discussion right now on the evolving college sports landscape, Randy Levine, president of the New York Yankees, and Candice Storie Lee, vice chancellor of athletics and University Affairs, also Athletic Director at Vanderbilt University, are up there with our own Janet Lauren. We're going to be talking with the two of them. Yeah, we are. Different times, we're going to focus a lot on baseball with Randy in the future after December 1st when the season is over and that collective bargaining agreement expires. I love it when you talk sports. Oh, well, you better get used to it. He's an official model. I'm a sports guy now. Are you really? Oh, yeah. When you have a kid who's obsessed with sports, you become a sports person. We have not done a lot of football yet. Okay, yeah, we've done baseball. We've done soccer. We've done tennis. So yeah, yeah, it continues. And also when people like Vanessa and Randall are around making this stuff just so fascinating, it's great. I'm also kind of blown away by how well the World Cup went. Just everybody was talking about it here in the office. You know, Oh FIFA World Cup Oh FIFA You don't want to.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted the challenges Apple faces in negotiating sports deals, particularly with leagues like the NFL and MLS, which prefer to work with companies that meet their demands. Meanwhile, Amazon is perceived as a stable partner for sports leagues, having proven its ability to deliver significant reach and reliability compared to traditional broadcasters.

Smart money should note that while Apple may not prioritize its relationship with MLS, the dissatisfaction expressed by leagues could impact its long-term strategy in sports. Additionally, Amazon's growing reputation as a dependable partner may shift the dynamics of sports broadcasting, potentially affecting competition in the sector.

11:52
PDT
Amazon invests $3-4 billion annually in sports rights.
AmazonAppleNFLMLSFormula OneJay MarineLucas ShawEddie QDisneyCVSTurner networksNBCDXY
– Entertainment offerings are linked to increased Prime subscriptions.
– Amazon is viewed as a stable partner compared to traditional networks.
– Apple faces challenges in negotiating sports rights.
– Leagues prefer partners who meet their financial demands.
streaming investmentssports rights negotiations
▸ Full transcript
und die Zukunft. Investiere wie die Zukunft, die sie sehen. Es sind einige Seehörer. Andere sind nur Ego. Wir sehen die Erre der Billionär-Athleten. Ein Fad zu einem. Der Zukunft von Geld zu anderen. Wir sehen Kryptos, trillion Dollar Wagen. Der Ende des Jobs. Oder der Ende des Menschen-Strengern. Wir sehen die endlosen Funken, die den AI-Hieb fühlen. Während andere die Ruhe folgen. Wir folgen den Geld.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the aggressive investment by Amazon in live sports streaming, with estimates of $3-4 billion annually on sports rights. This strategy is framed as a means to enhance Prime subscriptions, suggesting a direct correlation between entertainment offerings and retail sales growth.

Smart money should note that Amazon's stability as a media partner contrasts with the volatility of traditional networks, making it a safer bet for sports leagues. Additionally, Apple's challenges in securing sports rights indicate a shift in power dynamics within the industry, favoring companies willing to meet league demands.

Transcript evidence
🦉 News Assistant
Thinking…