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13:55
PDT
Higher interest rates are leading to more negotiation in the housing market.
Best FreedmanBrown Harris StevensNew York CityMayor Adams
– Sellers are hesitant to list homes due to the lock-in effect from lower mortgage rates.
– Demand remains as buyers are still required to move for personal reasons.
– Inventory shortages are a significant issue, impacting market dynamics.
– Certain markets, like New York City, are more insulated from broader trends.
housing market dynamicsinterest ratessupply and demand
▸ Full transcript
Are we seeing more use with adjusting to these higher rates? More use of adjustable-rate mortgages, seller financing, temporary borrowing rates, things like that. I mean, if we believe this is where we're going to stay in terms of interest rate levels, I would think the people who are trying to sell, whether it's the builders or the homeowners themselves, that there would be maybe a little bit more interplay, a little bit more negotiation. Yeah, there is more negotiation. When rates are higher, sellers understand that and they know that buyers have less ability to spend money because money's more expensive. So everybody negotiates a little bit more. And so, and people can get adjustables and do things like that. And people still have to buy, you know, because they move, they got a new job, they're starting a family, their circumstances demand that they buy a new home or rent a new place. So people are still doing that. It's just the speed of that has slowed down because rates have gone up, prices have gone up, and there's not enough inventory, because part of that is the lock-in effect of sellers who've decided not to sell because they don't want to have to pay a higher rate when they buy a new home. So we have a lot of, I call it, the big bowl of bad right now. It's sort of a weird time in the housing market, but it's not horrible. We had a very good summer. So we're going to have to see how it plays. And discretionary is very different. Like a place like New York City is a little bit different. It's insulated a bit from the rest of the country.
Analysis

The housing market is experiencing increased negotiation as sellers adjust to higher interest rates, leading to a slowdown in transactions. The lock-in effect is preventing many sellers from listing their homes, exacerbating inventory shortages despite ongoing demand from buyers with changing circumstances.

Smart money should note that while the market is currently challenging, it is not entirely negative, with some regions like New York City showing resilience. The interplay between supply and demand incentives, such as upzoning, could be crucial in addressing the inventory crisis and stabilizing prices.

13:53
PDT
Average first-time home buyer age has increased to nearly 40.
Mayor AdamsBrown Harris Stevens
– Current mortgage rates at 7% are deterring sellers from listing homes.
– Inventory shortages are a significant barrier to market recovery.
– Supply incentives like upzoning may be necessary to address demand.
– Home builders are unable to meet the potential demand despite efforts.
housing market dynamicsmortgage ratessupply and demandreal estate policy
▸ Full transcript
The major talking point of politicians today is that the average first-time home buyer is now nearly 40 years old, compared to a little more than 10 years ago when it was 28 or 29 years old. There are two worlds remaining, and we need to figure out ways to get more supply in the marketplace. Look, 7% is not so high if you look at history; we used to be in the double digits with mortgage rates. The challenge is not just rates, it's inventory and higher prices. There is no place for buyers to get some reprieve, and sellers who locked in a 2% or 3% rate are not going to sell right now because they see a 7%. If they sell and have to buy something else, they will have to lock in a higher rate. It's a really tough time in the housing market overall. What sort of breaks that though? If we're not going to get lower rates, I know that home builders are trying to build as much as they can, but there are limits to that. Even at the pace they're building, no one thinks it will catch up to the potential demand out there. Are we just waiting for somebody to give in finally, and maybe the sellers just decide, 'Okay, whatever, I'll put my house on the market and I'll take whatever price I get?' There is a mixture of things. We need to have more supply incentives versus demand incentives, like upzoning, which the city of Yes, which Mayor Adams got passed.
Analysis

The housing market is facing significant challenges as the average first-time home buyer's age has risen to nearly 40, highlighting a disconnect between supply and demand. With mortgage rates around 7%, sellers are reluctant to enter the market, locking in lower rates and exacerbating inventory issues.

Smart money should note that the current market dynamics suggest a prolonged period of high rates and limited inventory, which may require innovative supply incentives like upzoning to stimulate the market. The reluctance of sellers to list their homes could lead to sustained pressure on prices, impacting affordability for potential buyers.

13:51
PDT
Luxury brands are seeing a divide in customer demographics.
MyTheresaNet-a-PorterOverhead LuxMr. PorterBrown Harris StevensBest FreedmanCEOIn NetKali KeggerNew York
– Cash-heavy luxury real estate remains insulated from broader economic issues.
– The number of high-value customers is crucial for growth in luxury retail.
– The real estate market reflects similar trends as luxury retail.
– Investors should consider the implications of consumer segmentation.
luxury market trendsconsumer segmentationreal estate dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Customers account for 48% of the MyTheresa business. In Net-a-Porter, it's 4.3% that account for 49%. This is roughly 35,000 to 38,000 customers. That number needs to go up, and this is going up. Michael, Kali Kegger, of course, the CEO of Overhead Lux, the parent company of Net-a-Porter, Mr. Porter, as well as MyTheresa, is talking about the dividing scene between higher and middle-class customers. You could also say we're seeing that to a certain extent in the housing market as well. Best Freedman joins us right now, the CEO of Brown Harris Stevens, primarily focused on the tri-state area here in the New York region as well as down in Florida. I do want to ask you about that divide. I mean, he's talking, of course, about buying suits and dresses and handbags. But is that kind of the real estate market too, where you just kind of have this cash-heavy luxury market that can kind of ignore everything going on?
Analysis

The luxury retail market is experiencing a divide between higher and middle-class customers, with significant implications for brands like MyTheresa and Net-a-Porter. This trend mirrors the cash-heavy luxury real estate market, which remains resilient despite broader economic challenges.

Smart money should note that the bifurcation in consumer spending could lead to a more pronounced segmentation in both retail and real estate markets, potentially creating opportunities for targeted investments in luxury segments while cautioning against middle-market exposure.

13:49
PDT
Federal Reserve raises interest rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveBlackRockNick DeFuzeBloomberg
– BlackRock introduces customizable 401k options under its LifePath umbrella.
– Long-term investors need to adapt strategies due to changing market conditions.
– Private markets are being considered as a tool for retirement solutions.
– The focus is on delivering tailored investment solutions to individual workers.
Fed policyretirement solutionsmarket adaptation
▸ Full transcript
Das ist für die, die in allem ein Muster erkennen. Das ist for the craft of finance.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first hike of 2023. BlackRock is responding to changing market dynamics by customizing 401k options to better suit individual investor needs, emphasizing the importance of adapting investment strategies for long-term success.

Smart money should note that the shift towards more customizable retirement solutions reflects a broader trend in the market where traditional investment strategies may no longer suffice. The focus on integrating private markets into retirement plans indicates a potential shift in asset allocation strategies, which could impact future returns for investors.

13:47
PDT
Private debt must outperform Treasuries net of fees to be considered viable.
BlackRockNick DeFuzeTreasuryprivate marketsLifePathCEONick DeBrown HarrisBest FreedmanPRIVATE
– BlackRock is expanding its LifePath solutions to offer more customizable 401k options.
– The market is shifting towards a more nuanced approach to retirement investing.
– Investors are encouraged to consider their individual objectives when choosing between asset classes.
– The emphasis on transparency in benchmarks is crucial for evaluating private market investments.
private debt vs Treasuriesretirement solutionsinvestment strategy
▸ Full transcript
Assets because this is obviously going to be a big key, and I think we're going to talk a lot about this over the next few years as we see that optionality come in. I do have to ask you about the competition between investing in private debt relative to a Treasury. Again, going back to the yields that you can get on Treasuries that should remain elevated. Is there enough of a return coming out of those private assets relative to the risk that you would take on why somebody would choose that over taking something that, for all our flaws in this country, the Treasury is still probably the most ironclad deal out there? So it goes back to the first thing we talked about: what is the objective, and do private markets fit that objective? I think of private markets as a tool; they're not the thesis of how we're designing LifePath solutions. We have to have a benchmark that is transparent, and the benchmarks are all when we run this, we have to run this net of fees. So if we're going to add private markets in, they have to beat the benchmark net of fees. Alright, Nick. Great to have you here. Thank you. Nick DeFuze there, BlackRock's global head of retirement solutions, on the back of that debt announcement and on the back of a new product of expanding its LifePath solutions. When we come back, we're going to get the read on housing affordability. Brown Harris, Stephen CEO, Best Freedman joins us after the break, right here on Bloomberg.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted the competition between private debt investments and Treasuries, emphasizing the need for private market returns to exceed benchmarks net of fees. BlackRock's new LifePath solutions aim to broaden access to customizable 401k options, reflecting a shift in investment strategies for long-term savers.

Smart money should note that the focus on private markets as a tool rather than a core investment thesis indicates a cautious approach to risk management. The evolving landscape of retirement solutions suggests that investors may need to adapt their strategies to align with changing market conditions and personal objectives.

13:45
PDT
Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveBlackRockNick DeFuzeThe Target Date FundTarget Date Fund
– BlackRock is customizing 401(k) investment options.
– Target Date Funds will evolve to better meet worker needs.
– There is a potential shift towards broader equity exposure.
– Market conditions are prompting a reevaluation of traditional investment strategies.
Fed policyretirement investingcustomization in finance
▸ Full transcript
What we need to be able to do is use the data, understand what the objective is of those individual workers in the plans, and then deliver them the right solutions so they're going to have a better retirement. But just clarify this though, if this is going to be customized to the employer's workforce, that's still not on the individual basis. So you could have two people, let's say just take two 50-year-olds working for the same company, are they going to end up with the same products? They could. What we've done very well is we've simplified the investment process and the simplification. The Target Date Fund is the interface that people tend to work with. These are professionally managed, they're long-term. We want to take that Target Date Fund and then evolve it, more calibrated to what the workers are looking for in different industries. Do you already have custom companies that have signed up for this? We do. And you alluded to this earlier. A lot of this work is what we've done with our largest institutional clients. Now what we want to do is broaden that out to more investors. And this is taking the entire power of BlackRock, all of our tech systems, all of our quantitative systems, coupling it with products as well as the outcomes of the individuals and then delivering it back to the plans. I mean, I was looking through some of the literature on LifePath. And I mean, there are parts of LifePath where it almost seems there's like a push for broader equity exposure at the expense of treasuries. And I am curious if you could kind of balance this out for me. We're looking at basically you can get a coupon of 5% right now almost across the curve. I understand there's some risk baked into that. What is the idea that equity is even for somebody who's closer to retirement?
Analysis

The recent Federal Reserve rate hike of 25 basis points has prompted discussions about the implications for long-term investors, particularly regarding the evolving landscape of 401(k) investing. BlackRock's new initiative aims to customize retirement solutions for employers' workforces, indicating a shift towards more tailored investment strategies.

Smart money should note that the emphasis on customizing retirement plans reflects a broader trend in the market where traditional investment approaches may no longer suffice. The potential push for broader equity exposure at the expense of treasuries could signal a strategic pivot for investors closer to retirement, especially in a high-yield environment.

13:43
PDT
BlackRock launches customizable 401k options.
BlackRockNick DeFuzeNick De
– Target date portfolios now include public and private markets.
– Shift reflects changing market dynamics post-2022.
– Investors encouraged to adopt flexible long-term strategies.
– Increased competition among asset managers expected.
401k customizationretirement investingmarket dynamics
▸ Full transcript
BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, today unveiled a new effort under its LifePath umbrella to make the workplace 401k more customizable with target date portfolio options that include public and private markets, active and index strategies, and guaranteed lifetime income. Nick DeFuze is the global head of retirement solutions and the head of LifePath over at BlackRock. Great to see you, man. Good to see you. First, I do just want to get your reaction here to the rate rise. Obviously well telegraphed, well expected. But give me a sense here as to what that means for longer-term investors or longer-term savers. Is this one-off move something that becomes a longer-term structural story? I think the longer-term structural story is a change we've seen in the markets probably in the last three or four years, really post-2022. And I think what that's leading to is the need to have different approaches to 401k investing. So we want people to be long-horizon investors. We want them to be involved in the long term. What this is showing is the market has changed, where we can't just buy stocks and hold them for a very long time. We have to do a couple of other things around the edges. Well, give me a sense of what this is. I mean, most, I mean, which point, LifePath has been around forever. But the general idea is that the types of people who had access to that were a little bit much higher on the spectrum. This is a broadening out of that. Correct. But more importantly, it's taking existing products and I guess pushing them to people in a way that they could sort of mix and match them in a way that suits them best. So the 401k has worked, and I think we have to acknowledge the 401k has done an incredibly good job at accumulating.
Analysis

BlackRock has introduced a new customizable 401k offering under its LifePath umbrella, aiming to broaden access to target date portfolio options that include both public and private markets. This shift reflects a significant change in market dynamics, necessitating a more flexible approach to long-term investing beyond traditional stock holdings.

The emphasis on customization in 401k plans signals a growing recognition that investors need to adapt to evolving market conditions. Smart money should note that this move could lead to increased competition among asset managers to provide tailored investment solutions, potentially reshaping the retirement savings landscape.

13:41
PDT
Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveU.S. PresidentBank of JapanJapanU.S.Dow JonesNasdaqS&PBesenRGEMSUSAPRIVATEFEDFUNDS
– U.S. President suggests interest rates should come down.
– Bank of Japan expected to maintain accommodative policy.
– Yen weakness likely to persist due to interest differentials.
– Market volatility anticipated in response to monetary policy shifts.
Fed policycurrency interventioninterest rate differentials
▸ Full transcript
Invest, wie die Zukunft ist, watchen. RG, die Energie der Welt braucht. Das ist es. Die Träume, die dein Nummer macht. Und mit der nächsten Generation Speed, Automation und Integration. Das ist die neue Fischung des EMS, die ihr gewinnt. Beide von eurem Verhandlungen-Kompeten-System. Bloomberg, trainiere die EMS. Bringen Sie uns auf die Minute News, wo immer und wo immer es passiert. Ich bin Haslender Amin in Mumbai. Das ist Bloomberg. Wir haben eine Rettentwicklung von der Federal Reserve vorhin, heute einen 25-Basis-Punkt-Hike. Der erste Hike-Bike, der Fed, seit 2023. Der Präsident der USA, der Rettkuts für die Rettkuts hat. Er ist jetzt mit Social Media Posts, unschuldigte Social, sagen quote, that he thinks interest rates need to come down. Interest rates in the U.S. should quote be.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first hike since 2023. The U.S. President has expressed a belief that interest rates should decrease, indicating potential future monetary policy shifts.

Smart money should note the divergence in monetary policy between the U.S. and Japan, as the Bank of Japan is expected to maintain a more accommodative stance despite rising inflation concerns. This misalignment could lead to further weakness in the yen and continued volatility in currency markets.

13:38
PDT
BOJ expected to adopt a more hawkish stance.
Bank of JapanU.S.Dow JonesKevin WarshMark SobelAmphifBOJUnited StatesThe NasdaqThe ClothesFEDFUNDSS&P
– U.S. markets declined following Fed's rate decision.
– Dow Jones transportation average nearing 200-day moving average.
– Intervention strategies in Japan viewed as temporary.
– Two-year yield increased by seven basis points.
monetary policy divergencecurrency interventionmarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
On those two occasions, now, apparently the Treasury went alone this time without the Fed. It did it in Euros. I think one point about Besant, he's made some comments recently about having asymmetric information. I am the House. I think he's suggesting, to the extent that he suggested Japan may adopt a more accelerated monetary policy path, I think he's right that a less accommodative Japanese monetary policy is the key to strengthening the yen. The intervention is a band-aid as far as I'm concerned. All right, Mark. I really appreciate it. I've got to leave it there. Mark Sobel over at Amphif talking, of course, about that upcoming BOJ decision and, of course, some of the impacts right now, the interplay between the United States and Japan and those currency interventions. We take a closer look at the markets here, which ended on the back foot after holding strong once that rate decision hit at 2 p.m. But the more Kevin Warsh spoke, the more the markets decided to just kind of throw in the towel. For right now, the biggest impact was on the Dow Jones transportation average, which closed just a whisker away from its 200-day moving average for the first time since October, down about 3% on the day. The Nasdaq indices basically unchanged, the S&P down about a fifth of a tenth of a percent. But your two-year yield, that's higher by seven basis points heading into tomorrow. This is The Clothes on Blu-Bla.
Analysis

The upcoming Bank of Japan (BOJ) decision is expected to signal a shift towards a more accelerated monetary policy, which could strengthen the yen. The U.S. markets reacted negatively to the Fed's rate decision, particularly impacting the Dow Jones transportation average, which closed near its 200-day moving average, down about 3%.

Smart money should note that the intervention strategies employed by Japan are merely temporary fixes, as a less accommodative monetary policy is essential for long-term yen strength. The divergence in monetary policies between the U.S. and Japan continues to create volatility, particularly in currency markets, which could present trading opportunities.

13:36
PDT
Yen remains weak against the dollar, hovering around $162.
JapanBank of JapanMr. BesantU.S. TreasuryTakahichi administrationMOFFEMABut Japan
– Japan's monetary policy has not adapted significantly to changing economic conditions.
– Market interventions have not led to desired outcomes, reflecting deeper policy misalignments.
– Concerns over U.S. Treasury yields are influencing Japan's intervention strategies.
– The upcoming BOJ decision may signal a shift in Japan's approach to interest rates.
currency interventionmonetary policy misalignment
▸ Full transcript
For the last two years, given the wide interest differentials and some qualms about Japanese fiscal sustainability, the yen tended to gravitate towards $162. Japan wasn't changing its underlying monetary and fiscal policies to any significant degree. However, the population didn't like the weakening yen; it was bad for inflation and hurt real incomes. I think when 60 became a bit of a line in the sand for Japan, when the yen approached it, the MOF would jawbone, saying markets were disorderly, they would do rate checks, they'd intervene, then the yen would rise a little bit and then it would fall back. Now I don't think the Japanese strategy has been successful because the markets haven't been disorderly, and that's the usual standard for intervention in major floating currencies. Rather, the problem for Japan is that the policies were misaligned and they weren't changing significantly enough. But Japan intervened when the politicians had problems and they said to do something, but we're not going to change this or that. Well, you find another tool: intervention. So enter Mr. Besant into the equation. I think the yen intervention has called for usage of the FEMA facility to finance intervention to limit treasury sales. I think his call for buybacks reflects a concern over 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, or should I say rising yields in the U.S. as symbolized by the 10-year Treasury. I felt that Besant's operation.
Analysis

The yen has been gravitating towards $162 due to wide interest differentials and concerns over Japanese fiscal sustainability, with Japan's monetary policies remaining largely unchanged. Despite interventions, the Japanese strategy has not been successful, as the markets have not been disorderly, indicating a misalignment in policies that could lead to further volatility.

13:34
PDT
BOJ expected to signal hawkish stance amid inflation concerns.
Bank of JapanFederal ReserveEuropean Central BankJapanTakahichi administrationECBBOJThe BankSo JapanFEDFUNDS
– Market anticipates a December rate hike from the BOJ.
– Yen weakness persists due to rate differentials with the US and ECB.
– Dissent in BOJ's statement could indicate policy shifts.
– Inflation in Japan has been above target for four years.
BOJ policy divergenceinflation risksFX market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
What's going to happen going forward? Now you know as well as I do that Japan had years of low inflation; it had a negative interest rate policy. The Bank of Japan held at one point over 50% of the stock of outstanding JGPs. They were very slow to raise interest rates. So Japan had an overly accommodative monetary policy. They managed to get inflation up. Inflation has been above target for, let's say, four years or so. The Bank of Japan is still talking about addressing the upside inflation risk. There are those still who do have concerns that inflation may fall below target in Japan. Meanwhile, as you've suggested, the Fed and the ECB as well have raised rates much faster than Japan. So the yen was very weak on these wide differentials. I think a big issue is that many of the markets now expect a December hike out of the BOJ, perhaps a few quarterly rate hikes after that. I think a key issue tomorrow for the BOJ is how hawkish the Bank of Japan is going to be. And I'm going to be watching if there are any dissents in the Bank of Japan statement and whether the Takahichi administration signals some views on Japan raising rates. With the Fed raising rates today and bond yields rising, and Japan isn't matching that, I think it's going to put downward pressure on the yen.
Analysis

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is under pressure to address inflation risks as it has maintained an overly accommodative monetary policy for years, while the Fed and ECB have raised rates more aggressively. Market expectations are leaning towards a potential December rate hike from the BOJ, with attention on how hawkish the central bank will be in its upcoming statement.

Smart money should note that the divergence in monetary policy between Japan and other major economies could lead to further weakness in the yen, especially if the BOJ fails to match the rate hikes of the Fed. Additionally, any dissent within the BOJ could signal a shift in policy direction that may impact market sentiment significantly.

13:32
PDT
Dollar weakened post-liberation day but remains stable against the euro.
Bank of JapanU.S.euroDXY
– Geopolitical concerns are impacting dollar strength.
– Bank of Japan expected to raise rates in upcoming decision.
– U.S. inflation fight is influencing global monetary policy dynamics.
– Market sensitivity to rate differentials remains high.
currency dynamicsglobal monetary policygeopolitical risks
▸ Full transcript
You know, as a policymaker, I didn't really worry about one or a hundred basis point moves one way or the other. What I'd say is that the dollar took a big dip after liberation day, but you know, against the euro, which is the deepest currency bilateral pair, it's been between 114 and 117 for quite a long while. Obviously, markets are very sensitive to rate differentials and monetary policy. But I think the dollar also is being held back by other concerns about geopolitics and tariff policies and the like. So I think there are a lot of factors at play. I would say the dollar isn't as buoyant as I would have imagined from the past when there were risk-off events that would involve the safe haven role of the dollar. But it hasn't been buoyant on the upside, but it also hasn't really sunk. Yeah. I do want to ask you about the Bank of Japan, which is scheduled to make their next policy decision kind of overnight Thursday into Friday U.S. time. Expectation that they're still going to continue to try to bump up their rates further. What is the relationship right now between what we're trying to do here in the U.S. with our own inflation fight?
Analysis

The dollar has experienced a significant dip following recent geopolitical events, particularly liberation day, but remains stable against the euro, fluctuating between 114 and 117. Concerns over geopolitics and tariff policies are currently holding back the dollar's performance, which is not as buoyant as expected during risk-off events.

The upcoming Bank of Japan policy decision is crucial, as expectations suggest they will continue to raise rates. This decision will be closely watched in relation to the U.S. inflation fight, highlighting the interconnectedness of global monetary policies amidst varying economic conditions.

13:28
PDT
Fed decision expected to impact FX markets.
Michael SpenceHoover InstitutionFedBOJFXProfessor Michael SpenceNobel LaureateMark SobelFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– BOJ decision imminent, could influence market dynamics.
– AI adoption varies globally, affecting investment strategies.
– Geopolitical shifts may alter labor market conditions.
– Capital flows could be affected by central bank policies.
central bank decisionsAI adoptiongeopolitical shifts
▸ Full transcript
With us, Professor Michael Spence, their senior fellow over at the Hoover Institution, of course, a Nobel Laureate in economics. We're going to continue our discussion on the Fed decision when we come back and continue that focus on some of the global impacts of it, particularly in the FX space and the resetting of the global cost of capital. We're going to catch up with Mark Sobel when we come back after the break and, more importantly, push ahead to that BOJ decision, which is just a little more than 24 hours from this close on Bloomberg. Your favorite game, connect points. For you, data is not just data; they are the whole thing, only good done. This is for those who recognize all the insights. This is for the craft of finance. We're doing research, and we're pulling all that together to think about what would be the best investment.
Analysis

The upcoming Fed decision is poised to influence global financial markets, particularly in the foreign exchange space and the resetting of the global cost of capital. Additionally, the Bank of Japan's decision is imminent, which could further impact market dynamics in the next 24 hours.

Smart money should note the potential for significant shifts in capital flows as central banks navigate inflationary pressures and geopolitical changes. The focus on AI's economic implications suggests that investment strategies may need to adapt to varying rates of adoption and benefits across different regions, particularly outside the US and China.

13:26
PDT
AI revolution benefits are unevenly distributed, favoring the U.S. and China.
United StatesChinaEuropeAISo EuropeUSDCNH
– Adoption of AI technology presents opportunities for all nations, not just leaders in model development.
– Europe can still participate in the economic benefits of AI through adoption.
– Investment strategies may need to consider regions with strong AI adoption potential.
– The geopolitical landscape influences the pace and nature of AI development and adoption.
AI adoptiongeopolitical shifts
▸ Full transcript
Employment and virtually every other major macroeconomic statistic. As these structural changes take place, is there a sense here that it will not necessarily be sort of a global phenomenon in terms of who actually benefits? We can look at it from the AI standpoint; this has been a discussion that's largely been dominated by the U.S., China, and maybe some European nations to a certain extent. You don't hear a lot of the other nations sort of taking part in this discussion, certainly not with the positive effects of AI. I think, I mean, I have a slightly different view of that, but I think the characterization is right. The AI revolution has two parts. One is building these frontier models that get most of the attention, are incredibly powerful, more numerous, and even startling. That's China and the United States and maybe a little bit elsewhere, but not much. And then there's adoption and use. And that is a game that's open to everybody. I think, you know, you're right. We're going to see variation in adoption, use, benefits, economic, social, and other across the globe. But it's not a game that you're excluded from if you're not in the frontier building business. So Europe has missed out; they can participate in the second part of this revolution. I mean, I think there's open questions everywhere. What I've found, frankly...
Analysis

The discussion highlights the uneven global benefits of the AI revolution, primarily dominated by the U.S. and China, while other nations may lag in frontier model development but can still participate in AI adoption. This suggests that while the leading nations capture most of the innovation, there remains significant opportunity for global participation in AI's economic benefits through adoption and use.

Smart money should note that the AI landscape is bifurcated into frontier model development and broader adoption, indicating that investment opportunities may exist beyond the leading nations. Countries like Europe, despite not leading in model building, can still leverage AI for economic growth, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus towards regions with strong adoption capabilities.

13:24
PDT
Geopolitical shifts are affecting labor markets and economies.
DebyeGisec GlobalEmiratesBrookings InstitutionKevinMichaelHoover InstitutionAIGFC
– Trade fragmentation may benefit reshoring efforts.
– Historical trade dynamics have contributed to deflationary pressures.
– Inflation targets could be influenced by current trade policies.
– Investors should prepare for mixed effects on labor markets.
geopolitical risktrade dynamicsinflation pressures
▸ Full transcript
And they don't, but I really don't think, you know, any reasonable guess as to the way rates are going is going to make a big dent in the AI momentum or investment program. Another big structural change, obviously, which you kind of touched on, was this idea of what's been going on geopolitically. I mean, some huge structural shifts and kind of that geopolitical landscape, the trade fragmentation, some of that I guess works to our benefit with reshoring and other things. Give me a sense here. Do those types of geopolitical shifts, and I know we don't get them to this magnitude that often, but do they have a direct impact on the short term on the labor market here and for that matter, you know, the economies surrounding those labor markets? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, they could be mixed effects, but you certainly couldn't dismiss them. If you go back to, say, 25 years and look at our inflation performance, and particularly after the GFC, we had real rates that were zero or negative, huge purchases by the investment bank and inflation below target, if you think of the target as 2%. It was a deflationary environment and a significant contributor to that was trade. And so there are lots of things going on in the global economy that are causing...
Analysis

Geopolitical shifts are significantly impacting labor markets and economies, with trade fragmentation potentially benefiting reshoring efforts. Historical data suggests that trade dynamics have contributed to deflationary environments, which could influence inflation targets moving forward.

Smart money should note that the current geopolitical landscape may create mixed effects on labor markets, indicating a need for adaptive strategies. The interplay between trade policies and inflation could present both risks and opportunities for investors in the coming months.

13:21
PDT
The Fed faces inflationary pressures while managing growth.
FedKevinAIBrookings Institution
– AI's productivity gains are expected to materialize in the next five years.
– Current economic conditions reflect a J curve phase, with short-term challenges.
– Balancing inflation control and growth is critical for the Fed.
– Long-term benefits from AI investments may outweigh current difficulties.
AI productivityFed policyinflation management
▸ Full transcript
You know, formerly declining productivity trends and so on. And of course, the uncertain but potentially huge impact of AI. So it's not an easy environment for them to process. It's not, you know, business as usual. And they're trying to strike a balance, right? They mean they have to deal with inflationary pressures. They have to sort out the ones that may resolve themselves from the ones that, you know, look like they're persistent problems, you know, supply, demand, imbalances, and so on. And they don't want to act so aggressively that they truncate the performance of the economy, which has been pretty good in terms of growth. And we're all hoping, I think, that from the AI investments, sometime down the road, my best guess is in the next five years, we'll start to see the productivity gains remain there. We're still in this stage. We talk about the J curve all the time. We're in the early part of the J curve where we're going down rather than up. But still, I mean, I think that's in our future. The benefit of all that, if we get it right, is that Kevin and his colleagues will deal effectively with inflation in the short run, not curtail our growth, and then we'll start to get the benefits of the AI productivity gains, which will not only produce growth but relieve the inflationary pressures.
Analysis

The Fed is navigating a complex economic landscape marked by inflationary pressures and the uncertain impact of AI on productivity. While they aim to manage inflation without stifling growth, the potential productivity gains from AI investments may take time to materialize, suggesting a challenging transition period ahead.

Smart money should note that we are currently in the early stages of the J curve regarding AI productivity, indicating that while short-term challenges persist, significant long-term benefits could emerge. The Fed's ability to balance inflation control with economic growth will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the economy over the next few years.

13:19
PDT
Cybercrime costs $10.5 trillion globally each year.
DebyeGisec GlobalEmiratesGraduate SchoolHoover InstitutionFEDFUNDS
– Debye is hosting the largest cybersecurity event in the region, Gisec Global.
– Over 80% of Debye's cybersecurity standards have been met.
– The Emirates aims for a 90% cashless transaction target this year.
– Digital economy growth is closely tied to advancements in cybersecurity.
cybersecuritydigital economy
▸ Full transcript
Cybercrime costs the world $10.5 trillion every year, and Debye is part of the global response. Debye is home to the largest cybersecurity event in the region, Gisec Global. As the Emirates' digital economy grows, cybersecurity is keeping pace. 99.5% of government services are digitized, with a 90% cashless transaction target this year. Debye has already met over 80% of its cybersecurity standards, security that scales with digital growth. The small things, you look closer. Because where others only see details, you can see the possibilities. This is for everyone who makes a big difference from small inputs. This is for the craft of finance. pulling all that together. Graduate School of Business and a pioneer at the theory of course of job market signaling. Now of course at the Hoover Institution. Great to have you here, Michael. I do want to start off with this idea of what the Fed is actually confronting because it's easy to talk about the cyclical inflation picture. It's easy to talk about just the current state.
Analysis

Cybercrime costs the world $10.5 trillion annually, highlighting the urgent need for robust cybersecurity measures as digital economies expand. Debye is positioning itself as a leader in this space, having met over 80% of its cybersecurity standards while aiming for a 90% cashless transaction target this year.

The rapid digitization of government services and the emphasis on cybersecurity standards suggest a growing market for cybersecurity solutions. Investors should note that as digital economies evolve, companies that prioritize cybersecurity will likely see increased demand and potential growth opportunities.

13:17
PDT
AI investments face potential backlash from local governments.
Cecilia RouseBrookings InstitutionAIlocal government
– Private sector decisions may overlook broader societal impacts.
– A collective slowdown in AI development may be necessary.
– Regulatory changes could reshape the AI investment landscape.
– The balance between innovation and societal costs is critical.
AI investment risksregulatory scrutinysocietal impacts
▸ Full transcript
The risk of their AI investments is usually just about what's on the balance sheet and what demand and supply looks like now. The questions are, is there going to be so much backlash that the local government will nix this data center or do something else that actually slows the progress of this AI build-out? A, do you think we should slow it? But more importantly, should that be a concern with regards to the negative impact of actually not continuing with this build-out? I am not an AI expert, but what I will say is this: in economics, we all understand that there are factors in the private sector that private actors make good decisions for themselves. They don't necessarily bake in the impacts on other people. And the way I'm reading what is happening right now among the frontier models is that there are aspects of their investments and their activities which they recognize. It's not in my individual interest to slow down, but collectively realize that there are impacts for the rest of society that we do need to collectively slow down, but they have to do it collectively. So this is a big problem. It's a big challenge. I am not an AI expert, so I cannot tell you how realistic the risk assessment is, etc. But I will say that if they're calling for help and slowing down, we should probably be listening and understanding ways that we can do so and help them do so in ways that still allow for innovation but still minimize the cost.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the tension between the rapid advancement of AI technologies and the potential societal impacts that may necessitate a slowdown in their deployment. There is a recognition that while private sector actors may prioritize their own interests, the collective consequences of AI investments require a more cautious approach to ensure societal well-being.

Smart money should note the call for a collective reassessment of AI development, as this could lead to regulatory changes that impact the pace and nature of technological innovation. The acknowledgment of potential backlash from local governments indicates that the landscape for AI investments may become more complex, affecting future valuations and growth trajectories.

13:15
PDT
Fed's rate hike was expected; market reaction was subdued.
Kevin WarshCecilia RouseJ.B. HuntGoldman SachsBrookings InstitutionFederal ReserveAIFEDFUNDS
– Short-term Treasury yields rose for the seventh consecutive day.
– J.B. Hunt warned of earnings pressure from rising costs.
– AI's economic impact remains uncertain; productivity gains may take time.
– Labor market dynamics are shifting, with potential long-term implications.
AI adoptioninflation impactlabor market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Look to make hard decisions about how we want to generate the kind of economy that we need to go forward so that we can be productive, and we can innovate, and we can really address today's really challenging policy problems. Well, when we start to talk about a future, and all of this comes kind of this big inflection point where AI has become much more dominant in our economic growth, it's obviously going to reshape our labor market to some degree or another. And we talk about all of the investment that has propelled the equity markets and bond markets to a certain extent higher. Have you had a chance to sort of try to assess what the economic impact of further adoption and build-out of artificial intelligence and the related technologies will actually have, positive or negative? I think that is a great unknown. We all know that there is great potential in AI, great potential. I think we haven't fully seen the productivity impacts just yet. And that may be because it's going to take some time for it to really materialize as it becomes part of electricity, like computers, like the Internet, which took some time to really materialize in terms of the productivity gains that we now really enjoy. On the other hand, we know that it's going to have, you know, it's costly to set up, and there's going to be short-term transition. We also have economists at the Brookings Institution that thought about the impacts for the federal government and the federal debt. And on the one hand, it may generate more economic gains in terms of productivity. On the other hand, if we're all living longer.
Analysis

The Fed's recent rate hike was anticipated, yet the market's reaction was muted, with persistent inflation pressures leading to a modest decline in stocks and a rise in short-term Treasury yields. The trucking sector, particularly J.B. Hunt, is facing challenges due to rising fuel and recruitment costs, highlighting the broader impact of inflation on corporate earnings.

The ongoing discussion around AI's economic impact reveals uncertainty about its productivity benefits and potential costs. As AI becomes more integrated into the economy, its effects on labor markets and productivity may take time to fully materialize, suggesting a complex transition ahead for businesses and policymakers.

13:13
PDT
Full employment definitions are evolving with a smaller labor market.
Cecilia RouseBrookings InstitutionFederal ReserveFOMCGoldman SachsFEDFUNDS
– Immigration is viewed as a key driver for economic growth.
– The Fed's interest rate policies have limitations in addressing external economic shocks.
– Persistent inflation remains a significant concern for the economy.
– Real wages are declining due to inflation, impacting consumer purchasing power.
labor market dynamicsinflation pressureseconomic growthimmigration policy
▸ Full transcript
Get economists overall like yourself as well as those at the Fed actually have the ability to even get a true clean read on exactly what's going on in the labor market? Well, I think what I think the question is what does full employment look like for a smaller economy? And I think that the jobs numbers we're seeing is kind of consistent with the size of the labor market that we have today. It's just the numbers aren't as big because our labor market's not as big. So if we want to talk about the source of economic growth and the role of labor and workers in generating that growth, we need a larger economy, which is why many economists are in favor of immigration, because those workers, they come, they produce goods, they produce services, they consume, they buy goods and services, and so they help generate that kind of economic activity. So with a smaller labor market, we're going to have less economic activity, but it still may be consistent with the size of our economy. So the question is where are we going forward? We may not grow as quickly. We may not be as large, but it still may be appropriate for the economy that we have. I am curious about the policy prescriptions. I mean, we put a lot of focus on the Fed, Chair, and the FOMC. But as we've talked about a lot, I mean, there's only so much. The lever of raising and lowering interest rates can have on our economy, particularly when we're talking about things like energy shocks, tariffs, supply chain issues, these are things that at least at the core aren't necessarily the Fed's problem to solve.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted the challenges of achieving full employment in a smaller economy, emphasizing the need for immigration to boost economic activity. Additionally, it was noted that while the Fed's interest rate adjustments are crucial, they cannot address external factors like energy shocks and supply chain issues that also impact the economy.

Smart money should recognize that the current labor market dynamics may not support rapid economic growth, and the Fed's tools may be limited in addressing persistent inflation driven by global factors. The interconnectedness of the economy suggests that external shocks could have lasting effects, complicating the path to price stability.

13:11
PDT
Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, first hike since July 2023.
Federal ReserveKevin WarshCecilia RouseJ.B. HuntGoldman SachsNVIDIAIntelDellMicrosoftDow JonesS&PNasdaqFEDFUNDS
– Median interest rate outlook for 2026 increased to 4.1%.
– Persistent inflation remains a concern despite low unemployment.
– Real wages have fallen, impacting consumer purchasing power.
– Dow transports and trucking stocks are under significant pressure.
Fed policyinflation impactlabor market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
We haven't seen it yet. So there's a lot of uncertainty, but the Fed is doing what it can. It's got to generate full employment. That looks like it's doing okay right now. And so it's really turning its attention to price stability. Well, on the labor side then, I mean, how much weakness do you think the Fed would actually tolerate in order to, if you believe Kevin Warsh, to actually truly get its target for core PCE back down to 2 percent? Well, one of the challenges we have right now is our economy is looking a little different than it has in the past. We are so interconnected that what we learned coming out of the pandemic is we're so interconnected that these shocks that happen elsewhere in the world, these supply shocks, can reverberate back to our own economy. So what is what we call the natural rate of unemployment? There's a lot of debate among economists as to what that number really is. But what I would say is that we see an unemployment rate that is relatively low. I will caution that some of that has come about because some people have dropped out of the labor market, which means that they have stopped looking for work and I keep my eye on that. But really importantly, we know that real wages have fallen. And that is that what does your paycheck actually buy you? And the reason it has fallen of late is because of the inflation. So again, that brings us back to the Fed's decision today, saying, look, we know that inflation hits everybody, and we need to do what we can. The question is, what can they do? If the inflation is due to conflicts in the Middle East or due to...
Analysis

The Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first increase since July 2023, with a unanimous decision indicating potential for further hikes. The median interest rate outlook for the end of 2026 has risen to 4.1%, suggesting that the Fed is committed to addressing persistent inflation despite a resilient labor market.

Smart money should note that while the unemployment rate remains low, real wages have fallen due to inflation, indicating that consumer purchasing power is under pressure. This dynamic could lead to a more cautious approach from the Fed as it navigates the balance between employment and price stability amidst global supply shocks.

13:09
PDT
Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, first increase since July 2023.
Kevin WarshCecilia RouseBrookings InstitutionFederal ReserveDow JonesS&PNasdaqJ.B. HuntGoldman SachsNVIDIAIntelDellFEDFUNDS
– Unanimous decision suggests potential for further rate hikes.
– Investment-grade spreads remain low, but risks in high-yield markets are emerging.
– Persistent inflation is impacting corporate earnings forecasts.
– Labor market remains resilient with unemployment at 4.1%.
Fed policyinflation concernscredit market risks
▸ Full transcript
Inside of today's Fed decision, monetary policy might be expressed through basis points, stop plots, and inflation forecasts, but ultimately it works through paychecks, hiring decisions, borrowing costs, and retirement strategies. The Fed is trying to restore price stability, according to Kevin Warsh, but to do it without turning a slightly cooler labor market into a contracting labor market. Cecilia Rouse has examined that trade-off from both inside government as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisors and inside academia as the dean of the Princeton School of Public and International Affairs. She's now president of the Brookings Institution and she joins us from our Washington D.C. Bureau. No one was surprised about the rate hike we got today, but there is a much broader conversation right now about how persistent inflation has been and whether the blunt tool that the Fed has is going to be enough to actually, I guess, put the cat back in the bag. I think that is exactly the question that many of us have. What we see is an economy that is remarkably resilient and where we have a labor market where unemployment is about 4.1 percent. So it looks as if the labor market is holding up, and yet we have inflation that has been persistently high. I think the challenge is we don't know just how solid that is.
Analysis

The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the first increase since July 2023, with a unanimous decision indicating growing support for further hikes. Despite a resilient labor market and strong economic growth, persistent inflation remains a concern, complicating the Fed's efforts to restore price stability.

Smart money should note that while investment-grade spreads remain low, cracks are appearing in riskier credit markets, particularly in sectors like bank loans. The ongoing inflationary pressures are prompting companies to adjust their earnings forecasts, which could signal a shift in market sentiment.

13:07
PDT
Fed raised rates by 25 basis points, first increase since July 2023.
Kevin MorshJ.B. HuntGoldman SachsDowS&PRussellFedDSEERomain BosticThe FedFEDFUNDSDXYS&PGC=F
– Short end of the yield curve saw persistent selling, with two-year yields rising for seven consecutive days.
– Dow transports closed near the 200-day moving average, driven down by trucking stocks.
– J.B. Hunt warned of rising fuel and recruitment costs affecting earnings.
– The dollar has strengthened for three consecutive days.
Fed policyinflation impactbond market dynamicslogistics sector concerns
▸ Full transcript
The countdown is on everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. This is the close. Welcome back to the close. I'm Romain Bostic. The Fed gave the market what it wanted, or at least what it had already priced in. The initial reaction was stasis, with most of the policy changes already priced in. But we started to see that change as we heard more from Kevin Morsh. A modest rally in stocks did actually fade during that press conference, and that modest rally in Treasury prices gave way to more persistent selling, particularly on the short end of the curve, with your two-year yield higher for a seventh straight day. That's the longest daily increase since the Fed last raised rates back in mid-2023. The dollar is up for a third straight day. The S&P is softer for a third straight day, as is the Dow and the Russell. But I want to point out there, the Dow transports actually took a huge leg down here, closing just a whisper away from that 200-day moving average for the first time since October of last year. The biggest drag coming right now from the trucking stocks. J.B. Hunt is out with a warning today, saying that the cost for fuel and the cost for recruiting truckers will hurt its earnings. Remember, this is something that a lot of companies have sort of been hedging their bets on now for several months, but now we're starting to hear from executives being a lot more pointed in the impact that this persistent inflation is having. We also heard from Goldman Sachs president, DSEE.
Analysis

The Fed's recent rate hike of 25 basis points was largely anticipated by the market, leading to a modest rally that faded during the press conference. The Dow transports faced significant pressure, particularly from trucking stocks like J.B. Hunt, which warned of rising costs impacting earnings due to persistent inflation.

Smart money should note the divergence in market reactions, with the short end of the yield curve experiencing persistent selling while the dollar strengthened. The warning from J.B. Hunt signals broader concerns about inflation's impact on operational costs, which could affect earnings across sectors reliant on logistics and transportation.

13:04
PDT
Cybercrime costs $10.5 trillion globally each year.
Cecilia RouseBrookingsDubaiGisec GlobalTrillion DollarUnd DubaiPRIVATEDXY
– Dubai is positioning itself as a leader in cybersecurity.
– The digital economy's growth is closely tied to cybersecurity needs.
– Investment opportunities in cybersecurity are expanding.
– The frequency of cyberattacks is increasing, driving demand.
cybersecurity investmentdigital economy growth
▸ Full transcript
Wir werden mit der Präsidentin der Brookings, Cecilia Rouse, der Kommission der Kommission zur Zeit, wenn wir nach dem Bremen zurückkommen, hier auf Bloomberg. Cybercrime kostet die Welt 10,5 Trillion Dollar jedes Jahr. Und Dubai ist Teil der globalen Antwort. Dubai ist die größte Cybersecurity-Event in der Region, Gisec Global. Als die digitale Ökonomie wächst, ist Cybersecurity entscheidend. 99,5% der Wir sind das große Ganze nur gut getanzt. Das ist für die, die in allem ein Muster erkennen, das ist für das Handwerk der Finanzen.
Analysis

Cybercrime costs the world $10.5 trillion annually, with Dubai emerging as a key player in the global cybersecurity response through events like Gisec Global. As the digital economy expands, the importance of cybersecurity is becoming increasingly critical, highlighting a significant opportunity for investment in this sector.

Smart money should note that while cybersecurity is often seen as a defensive play, the scale of investment needed to combat cyber threats presents a unique growth opportunity. The increasing frequency and sophistication of cyberattacks may drive demand for innovative cybersecurity solutions, making this a sector to watch closely for potential high returns.

13:02
PDT
Fed funds rate increased to 3.75%-4.00%.
Federal ReserveDow JonesS&PNasdaqNVIDIAIntelDellMicrosoftKen ShenodaDouble Line CapitalDow Jones Industrial AverageS&PNVDAMSFTMETAFEDFUNDS
– Median rate projection for 2026 now at 4.1%.
– Market anticipates further rate hikes.
– Dow Jones down 600 points, S&P down 0.4%.
– Cyclical names, particularly in Dow transport, hit hardest.
Fed policyinterest ratesequity market volatility
▸ Full transcript
You know your long meta and your long fangs, and I know nobody says fangs anymore, but let's just throw it out there for fun. Yeah, long all this time in your equity portfolio. Do you want to be long that in your credit portfolio as well? All right, Ken, always appreciate it. Ken Shenoda, portfolio manager over at Double Line Capital. Just to recap, about two hours ago, we got the first increase in the Fed funds rates since July of 2023, 25 basis points. The range is now 3.75% to 4%. The decision was unanimous, only the second time this year that has actually happened. But the outlook among members diverges in a new of those new rate projections that we did get. The median outlook for the interest rate for the end of 2026 has now risen to 4.1%. That does signal growing support for additional rate hikes. It means this isn't a one and done; this could actually be the start of a cycle. The market is pricing that in with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping for a third straight day. It's going to lose about 600 points on the day or about 1.2%. The S&P is down about 0.4% on the day. We'll call the Nasdaq indices unchanged. The biggest brunt of the sell-off that we saw today, though, you're going to see that in some of those cyclical names, particularly in Dow transport. As far as the S&P and the major sectors here, information technology did get a bit, but it was a modest bit to be sure. A smattering of names like NVIDIA, Intel, and Dell getting in on the action, but some of the bigger players like Microsoft and others are deep in the red. The yield story, as we were just talking about.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve raised the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the first increase since July 2023, with a unanimous decision among members. The median interest rate outlook for the end of 2026 has risen to 4.1%, indicating potential for further rate hikes and a shift in market sentiment as the Dow Jones slipped for a third consecutive day, losing about 600 points.

13:00
PDT
Front end of the yield curve offers higher returns with safe investment-grade securities.
Ken ShenodaDouble Line CapitalFederal ReserveU.S.bank loanshigh yieldprivate creditsoftwareFEDFUNDS
– Investment-grade spreads remain low, indicating stable economic conditions.
– Emerging risks in leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, especially in software sectors.
– Defensive trades are favored to mitigate potential losses.
– Overall economic growth and earnings remain strong.
investment-grade securitiescredit market stabilitydefensive investment strategies
▸ Full transcript
I know it's kind of boring, but us bottom people, we're kind of boring. We're just trying not to lose you money. The front end of the curve is higher now, and you can buy safe investment-grade securities. I'm not talking like triple E minuses here; I'm talking triple A, double A, single A type securities, 120, 150, 175 over the curve. It's not going to make you rich, but it's not going to lose you money. Even if spreads widened, it's short. It doesn't go down that much in price. So I think we like that defensive trade still. Again, it's boring. We've been pounding the table for it. It hasn't changed, but we're here to save you and not lose you money. Now you can earn a decent amount of rate of return at the front end of the curve. Yeah, well, and that's a good point, Ken. I am curious about just your thoughts generally on economic conditions and how that feeds into the credit picture and, more importantly, the health of some of these credit investments. I mean, the adjustments that the Fed made on the summary of economic projections weren't really all that dramatic. I mean, basically, it seems like a little bit softer, but overall still decent economic growth in a relatively stable labor market. Look, growth is strong in the U.S.; earnings are coming strong on the investment-grade side. It looks like there are no problems out there right now. Investment-grade spreads are sub 80 still. As you go into the riskier parts of the market, the leveraged loan market, high yield, bank loans, private credit, obviously, there are some cracks, you know, software exposure in bank loans, for example. I think that's really on our minds.
Analysis

The front end of the yield curve is currently offering higher returns with safe investment-grade securities, which are seen as a defensive trade to avoid losses. Despite the lack of excitement in this strategy, it remains a reliable approach as economic growth and earnings in the U.S. appear stable, with investment-grade spreads still low.

Smart money should note that while the investment-grade market is performing well, there are emerging cracks in riskier segments like leveraged loans and high-yield bonds, particularly those with software exposure. This divergence suggests a cautious approach is warranted, focusing on quality investments in a potentially volatile credit environment.

12:58
PDT
10-year yield may reach 5.25%.
JP MorganBob MichaelUnited StatesJapanAustraliaFederal ReserveJPUSPCEPRIVATE
– Short-term bonds outperform long-term bonds.
– Inflation remains a concern with core PCE at 3.5%.
– Analysts see limited upside in long-term bonds.
– Focus on short-term credit with attractive spreads.
bond market dynamicsshort-term investment strategyinflation concerns
▸ Full transcript
Maybe five percent's the middle of the ground and four seventy-five's the lower end, and we can get up to five and a quarter easily on the tenure. I mean, I know in the past you've talked about this idea of clipping coupons and not necessarily trying to make a really big duration call. But when you look at how far yields have come up, particularly on the long end, and just earlier today we had Bob Michael on Bloomberg television over at JP Morgan who was actually talking about how he's seen maximum pain out there for bonds and now seen some opportunity to buy on the long end of the curve, primarily in the US, Japan, and in Australia. Are yields at the long end of the curve attractive enough to you where it would start to tantalize you to sort of go out there? I know you're more short term, but give me a sense as to what makes it attractive to actually buy at 30 or 20 years? Well, I'll just note that being on the short end has worked. That's been the top performing part of the bond markets, being in shorter credit that has an attractive spread. It's either floating rate or it's kind of like in that two-year space. Look, obviously rates are higher. Obviously they're more attractive than they were in the past, but you know, you're still not talking about crazy high real yields at 5% with inflation, you know, core PCE up at three and a half almost. So I think it's a little too early. I just don't think that you have tremendous amounts of upside, and I just think there's better places for investors to kind of put their capital if they want safety. I just don't think you need to have that long bond to hope that it goes up 10-50% if stocks go down.
Analysis

The bond market is experiencing a shift as yields rise, with the 10-year yield potentially reaching 5.25%. While some analysts see buying opportunities in the long end of the curve, the prevailing sentiment suggests that short-term bonds remain more attractive due to higher real yields and inflation concerns.

Smart money should note that while long-term yields have increased, the real yields are not significantly high enough to warrant a shift from short-term investments. The focus on short-term credit with attractive spreads indicates a cautious approach amidst ongoing inflation pressures and fiscal deficit issues.

12:56
PDT
The Fed's rate hike was anticipated, leading to limited immediate market movement.
Kevin WarshFederal ReserveU.S.DubaiBlinBake TVDouble Line CapitalFEDFUNDS
– The two-year yield indicates that the market expects more tightening is necessary.
– Investors are cautious about the long end of the yield curve due to fiscal deficit concerns.
– The bond market's influence on Fed policy is becoming more pronounced.
– There is a preference for front-end yields over long-term bonds.
Fed policybond market dynamicsfiscal deficit concerns
▸ Full transcript
Positive that they were going to do something. But the long end of the curve, you saw a little bit of a rally as the announcement was made. And that's pretty much come off. The 10-year now, basically slightly higher in yield where it started the day. The long bond was down about six, seven basis points. That's now about an inch, too. So I think the market thinks that they need to do more. If you look at the forward curve, the market thinks they could cut as much as three times to the next to the end of 2027. The hike is pretty tight. Yeah, the hike. Yeah, well that's what I'm curious about too. I mean, we're talking, at least if you believe the dot plot, basically a trajectory that takes us somewhere around 4.1% on the Fed funds rate. You have a two-year now trading at four, seven, and change, I believe. And that gets to this idea as to how much of the hard work is actually being done by the bond market rather than the Fed itself. Well, definitely a good amount of the work is being done by the bond market. And if you go back through history, the Fed usually follows the two-year and the two-year is saying we got more work to do. And that's, you know, I think it's good in the sense that it gives investors attractive yields at the front end of the curve. We're just, we're not too excited to step it in the long end. We think there's potentially more downside there. You still got fiscal deficit issues. We're talking about sending $5,000 to everybody. I mean, there's issues in the long end, not just in the U.S. It's a global issue. And so we still like hugging that front end of the yield curve. Well, I'm curious. I mean, I understand what the two of you are saying. Let's just kind of go down.
Analysis

The market reacted to the Fed's recent rate hike announcement, with the long end of the yield curve initially rallying but then stabilizing, indicating skepticism about the Fed's future actions. The bond market is perceived to be doing much of the heavy lifting, suggesting that investors expect further tightening ahead, with potential cuts by the end of 2027.

12:54
PDT
10-year yield remains at 5%; two-year yield rises for seven days.
Kevin WarshFederal ReserveFed Chair Kevin WarshKen ShenodaDouble Line CapitalFEDFUNDS
– Fed Chair Warsh states inflation risks are to the upside.
– Labor risks are balanced, but inflation is the primary concern.
– Market expectations for rate hikes are increasing.
– Artificial intelligence's role in economic growth is acknowledged.
inflation concernsrate expectationsFed policy
▸ Full transcript
The persistent edge up in yields, with your 10-year yield holding at 5% and your two-year yield adding about five basis points for seven straight days, indicates that rate expectations continue to lift. A big part of the reason was the statement at 2 p.m., but even more so was the short press conference that took place right at 2:30. Here's what Kevin Warsh had to say: The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long. Inflation risks are to the upside, while labor risks are roughly balanced. This won't surprise you; I'm not in the forward guidance business. I've got nothing for you on the discussion with the president. Trends matter. Data points are noisy. Data point dependence is a dangerous preoccupation; it's not something that concerns me. Independence of the Federal Reserve is about staying in our lane. We care very much about what's happening in artificial intelligence. The economy has indeed strengthened. Underlying growth is higher. Inflation is the problem. And that was the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking just a moment ago. Joining us right now to kick us off to the close is Ken Shenoda, a portfolio manager at Double Line Capital. We heard a lot of various things from Kevin Warsh there. But ultimately,
Analysis

The persistent rise in yields, with the 10-year yield holding at 5% and the two-year yield increasing for seven consecutive days, signals a shift in rate expectations following the Fed's recent statements. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized that inflation remains too high and risks are skewed to the upside, indicating a tightening stance from the central bank.

Smart money should note that the Fed's focus on inflation, despite balanced labor risks, suggests a potential for more aggressive monetary policy adjustments. The acknowledgment of artificial intelligence's impact on the economy hints at a broader consideration of technological advancements in future economic assessments.

12:52
PDT
Fed raises rates for the first time since 2023.
Federal ReserveECBBank of JapanBlack RockStephanie RothArmour Main BostickDubaiEmiratesGyset GlobalThe CloseThe FedNew YorkFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– Market had anticipated the rate hike, showing initial stasis.
– Inflation pressures are driving central banks to tighten policy.
– Rising oil prices are a significant factor in the Fed's decision.
– Central banks face credibility issues regarding inflation management.
Fed policyinflation pressurescentral bank coordination
▸ Full transcript
Gyset Global. As the Emirates' digital economy grows, cybersecurity is keeping pace. 99.5% of government services are digitized, with a 90% cashless transaction target this year. Dubai has already met over 80% of its cybersecurity standards. Security that scales with digital growth. Here's Bloomberg. The countdown is on. Everything you need to get the edge at the end of the market day. This is The Close. The Fed gives the market exactly what it wanted, and now the market lives with the potential to make it even more. Live from Studio 2 here at Bloomberg headquarters in New York, Armour Main Bostick is fresh off the latest Fed decision, the first Fed rate hike since 2023 and the market reaction. It started off with a little bit of stasis as most of the moves that we saw by the Fed today were well telegraphed.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent rate hike marks its first increase since 2023, aligning with market expectations and signaling a synchronized tightening cycle among major central banks. This decision reflects the Fed's response to persistent inflation pressures, particularly influenced by rising oil prices and ongoing supply shocks.

Smart money should note that the Fed's choice to hike rates, despite previous indications of a more cautious approach, highlights a shift in their credibility stance regarding inflation. The market's reaction suggests that investors are now bracing for further tightening, which could impact future economic growth and corporate profitability.

12:50
PDT
Federal Reserve is expected to hike rates cautiously, with one hike anticipated in December.
Federal ReserveECBBOJBlack RockJohn FarrellJeff RosenbergStephanie RothETFDein LieblingsspielEuropean Equity Premium
– Global synchronized tightening is underway, involving the ECB and BOJ.
– Inflation pressures are prompting central banks to act despite previous tendencies to overlook oil price shocks.
– Market pricing influenced the Fed's decision-making process.
– Business owners are increasingly frustrated with consecutive supply shocks.
central bank policyinflation pressuressupply chain riskglobal tightening
▸ Full transcript
Dein Lieblingsspiel, Punkte verbenden. Denn für dich sind Daten nicht einfach nur Daten. Sie sind das große Ganze nur gutgetannt. Das ist für die, die in allem ein Muster erkennen. Das ist for the craft of finance. Wir wollen alles zusammenholen, um zu denken, was heute der beste Investiment ist, der Geld in den Zukunft zu machen. Investieren, wie die Zukunft schaut. European Equity Premium, income-active ETF.
Analysis

The recent tightening of financial conditions is expected to impact economic growth, with a focus on the AI narrative as a potential growth driver. The Federal Reserve's cautious approach to interest rate hikes, influenced by oil prices and inflation concerns, reflects a shift in central bank policy amidst a synchronized global tightening cycle.

Smart money should note that the Fed's decision-making is increasingly reactive to market conditions and inflationary pressures, particularly from oil prices. The interplay of supply shocks and central bank responses suggests a complex economic landscape where traditional policy responses may be insufficient.

12:47
PDT
Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveStephanie RothBlackRockECBBOJBank of EnglandoilTKTVMiddle EastCaptain HookNew York CityCL=F
– Central bankers are reacting to persistent supply shocks.
– Business owners express frustration over rising costs.
– Market expectations are shifting regarding future rate hikes.
– Inflation pressures remain a significant concern.
supply chain riskFed policy
▸ Full transcript
I can't address the situation in the Middle East, and I've got no idea we can at seven months and counting now. If we can, we'll have a very different conversation around this table. To your point about the way the market was priced for this, if it was 50-50, maybe there would have been some people on the committee making the argument we can wait. They were pushed into this by the market and some messy communication over the last few months. They were also pushed into this by the price of oil. Let's not bury that. This has really picked up in the last month now, and central bankers have lost their patience. At least you've talked about it all week. Negative supply shock, on top of negative supply shock, on top of negative supply shock, above target for five plus years. This was the meeting you asked the question; this was the meeting. They lost patience. If you talk to business owners, they express their frustration of absorbing costs time after time with each consecutive supply side shock. They cannot do it anymore. It is getting more perilous for them. They would like a response, and the response came today. Steph, it's good to see you. Appreciate it. Thank you. Stephanie Roth there of 4.3 search, TK. Good to see you, buddy. Fun. New glasses, too. You're rockin' it. I like them. I like them. Yeah, this Ramo's my stylist. Ramo, you called a Captain Hook earlier? Yeah. Stop by Captain Hook. There was no bed. There was no bed for him today. Unanimous. New York City this afternoon. Good afternoon. Thank you for choosing BlinBake TV. We'll see you tomorrow morning. We are in the home.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent decision to hike interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a loss of patience among central bankers, driven by persistent supply shocks and rising oil prices. Business owners are increasingly frustrated with absorbing costs from these shocks, indicating a critical need for responsive monetary policy.

Smart money should note the disconnect between market expectations and the Fed's policy path, as the two-year real yield suggests a repricing of future rate hikes. This environment of elevated inflation and supply chain disruptions may lead to a more cautious approach from the Fed, impacting growth forecasts and investment strategies.

12:45
PDT
Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveBlackRockAmerican AirlinesUnited AirlinesDelta AirlinesECBBOJNeil DoddStephanie RothJeff RosenbergTomMike McKeeFEDFUNDSCL=F
– Market expectations indicate a disconnect with Fed policy.
– Inflation pressures are tied to multiple supply shocks.
– Consumer resilience is surprising to airlines amid rising prices.
– Future inflation may stabilize around 2.5%.
Fed policyinflation outlookconsumer resilienceglobal tightening cycle
▸ Full transcript
Inflation of years of elevated inflation and they no longer can really afford to look through it. I think that's really the underlying problem here. If it was an oil shock in and of itself and there wasn't a 2022 inflation rise, there wasn't a chip shortage, there wasn't a whole other combination of events that are happening, the Fed could much more easily look through it. But now they face a credibility issue and any inflation that is coming seems to be one where they can't really tolerate it. And by the way, the market took up the Fed's eyes and ultimately they followed. If the market had been pricing this to be a 50-50 meeting, I think we could have had a hold. I was just talking with someone this afternoon about how fascinating this moment is. And we're going to look back and we'll be writing and reading about this moment, given all the different shocks upon shocks, as long as humanity isn't wiped out, that have come into us. What in a sense, yes. In the next couple of years. Nothing to worry about here, Vramar. Put that aside. Given the AI positive supply shock and the positive sort of productivity in capital markets but also what we're seeing with supply side shock after supply side shock, how do you think we're gonna look back at this pivot point? Is this a reflationary world or is this noise that people conflated with more persistent inflation at a time of an industrial revolution? It's been a combination of unfortunate events happening on top of each other and what we'll probably see is in one year's time inflation is very much going to have a two-handle, probably something like two and a half percent, and a lot of the shocks will.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points reflects a growing concern over persistent inflation, driven by various economic shocks. Market expectations have shifted, indicating a potential disconnect between the Fed's policy path and market realities, particularly regarding oil prices and consumer resilience.

Smart money should note that the Fed's credibility is at stake, as they can no longer afford to overlook inflationary pressures stemming from multiple supply shocks. The anticipated inflation rate may stabilize around 2.5% in the coming year, suggesting a potential easing of current pressures, but the path forward remains uncertain amid ongoing economic challenges.

12:43
PDT
Fed raised rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveECBBank of JapanJeff RosenbergBlackRockOKFEDFUNDSCL=F
– ECB also raised rates by 25 basis points last week.
– Market is adjusting to a synchronized global tightening cycle.
– Fed's decision reflects concerns over oil price impacts on real income.
– Expectations for future Fed hikes may be more gradual.
Fed policyglobal tightening cycleoil price impact
▸ Full transcript
Continuing to go up. That's not happening. So that effect comes off. You got to see oil prices continuing to go up. OK, to be seen on that. But if they were to continue to go up, the thing we're not really talking about at all. No one's really talked about the other side of this is, you know, the typical Fed policy central bank policy stance around oil price shocks to look through them. Clearly this Fed made a different choice, but why would you look through them? Because there is a constrictive effect of that, the real income effect, the effective tax increase from oil prices. That is not registering. We're looking at today's retail sales data. That's from a quarter ago. So in terms of what oil prices were affecting people's consumption. So a lot of that is still in front of us and can temper some of the, let's say, today's enthusiasm for expecting future acceleration in Fed hikes. Jeff, it's gonna see you always this. Thank you, sir. Jeff Rosenberg there of BlackRock on this Federal Reserve hike in interest rates 25 basis points. It follows the ECB doing the same thing just a week ago, 25 basis points. It goes into a BoJ meeting into the weekend where we expect them to do something similar, maybe even more. And they said we can sit here in the middle of September and say we have got a global synchronized tightening cycle upon us driven by the ECB, the BoJ, and the Federal Reserve right now. That's new. And ultimately the Federal Reserve just kicked off what needs to be a response from maybe not the Bank of England so obviously but the Bank of Japan. They need to respond because we see.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking a synchronized tightening cycle alongside the ECB and anticipated actions from the Bank of Japan. This decision reflects a shift in Fed policy, as they chose not to overlook the constrictive effects of rising oil prices on real income and consumption.

Smart money should note that the Fed's approach diverges from traditional central bank responses to oil shocks, indicating a more cautious stance on inflation. Additionally, the market's reaction to the two-year real yield suggests a repricing of Fed expectations, which could signal a more gradual hiking path ahead of the elections.

12:41
PDT
Fed likely to pause rate hikes ahead of elections.
Federal ReservePresident TrumpKevin WarshAmerican AirlinesUnited AirlinesDelta AirlinesBlackRockJeff RosenbergNeil DunterJohn FarrowKush DesaiAIFEDFUNDS
– Market is repricing expectations for future Fed policy.
– Consumer resilience is impacting pricing strategies of businesses.
– Two-year real yield indicates a shift in market sentiment.
– Inflation outlook remains uncertain with potential for continued price increases.
Fed policyinflation outlookconsumer resiliencemarket expectations
▸ Full transcript
much, much bigger financial conditions tightening to derail that train. And I think that's the train that's powering or that's the engine that's powering the economic train here. That's not really going to change from this story. So I don't really think we're going to have the growth story until we start talking about something that's much more centered around the AI story. But the heart of this... ...than 25 basis points. ...Frozenberg, the heart of this, and this is you coming out of Tepperit Carnegie Mellon, can we do this? Can we pull those off? John Farrell mentions the banks having a poor afternoon of this. Can we do this with smoothness with gradation? Or do we have jump conditions and some real stress ahead of us if that two-year real yield continues to advance? Well, I think the smoothness is that the Fed's not going to be hiking as aggressively as, you know, that jump in the two-year real yield. That's repricing the path, the forward path, which is already incorporating a pause ahead of the election, one hike in December and really pushing up into its expectations the hikes into 2027. So I think that kind of avoids that kind of worry that the Fed is going to have to be much more accelerated in terms of its hiking with regards to the concerns around inflation. The other thing we have to acknowledge here is just how much all of this conversation is conditional on those two other factors that...
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's approach to managing inflation remains cautious, with indications that they may not hike rates aggressively, potentially pausing ahead of the elections. Market expectations are shifting, with a focus on the two-year real yield, which suggests a repricing of the Fed's policy path and a more gradual approach to rate hikes.

Smart money should note the disconnect between the Fed's current stance and market expectations, particularly regarding the potential for a pause in rate hikes before the elections. Additionally, the ongoing resilience of consumer demand amidst rising prices indicates that businesses may continue to pass costs onto consumers, complicating the inflation outlook.

12:38
PDT
Fed may hike rates again in December but could pause thereafter.
Federal ReserveJeff RosenbergBlackRockTomMike McKeeSCPSo ParkJeffrey RosenbergMike McFEDFUNDSCL=F
– Market is repricing Fed expectations, particularly in real yields.
– Inflation forecasts may be revised downward due to supply chain improvements.
– Equities are down 1%, indicating market concerns over growth.
– The Fed's credibility is crucial in maintaining market stability.
Fed policyinflation outlookmarket expectationseconomic growth
▸ Full transcript
In this economy, yes, we can because we talked about all the supply issues, right? So those are in our math that adds about 100 basis points to inflation. Once you have the tariffs rolling off, once memory shortages stop feeding into computer prices, and once the oil price shock fades to some extent, then we're not going to be sitting here with 3% inflation. By the way, they took up their inflation numbers, but they're not incorporating the revisions that are going to be coming at the end of the month, which are going to be taking that back down another 30 or so basis points. SCP is going to look quite different when you're looking at the inflation numbers and we're talking about the inflation outlook. After what's likely to be a string of software inflation trends because the data are still having seasonal problems which tend to put downward pressure on inflation. So Park their forecast do you think they might be done? No, I don't think they're done. You don't think they're done. They're very likely to be hiking in December, but then beyond that they might be done. Okay. Jeff Rosenberg of BlackRock being patient standing by. He joins us now for more. Jeff, welcome to the program. Jeffrey Rosenberg of BlackRock joining us following that decision. What's the big takeaway for you and the team? You've had about an hour to digest it. And now in 30 minutes, you've had about 30 minutes to digest the news conference. What stands out for you? What gives you that guide for what they're going to do next? Yeah, I mean, this is a credibility meeting for Warsh. Tom mentioned the real yields. It's the two-year real yield that is the shocker here. That's telling you the market is repricing Fed expectations in terms of the policy path. There's a disconnect here between Warsh and the committee and Mike McKee's question kind of revealed that. The committee's only shown.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent meeting highlighted a potential disconnect between the committee's policy path and market expectations, particularly regarding real yields. Analysts suggest that while the Fed may hike rates in December, the overall trajectory remains uncertain, with inflation forecasts likely to be revised downward due to supply chain improvements.

Smart money should note that the market is currently pricing in a more cautious growth outlook, as evidenced by the flat yield curve and declining equity performance. The Fed's credibility is at stake, and any misalignment with market expectations could lead to increased volatility in financial markets.

12:36
PDT
Airlines are cutting capacity while maintaining high prices.
American AirlinesUnited AirlinesDelta AirlinesNeil DoddStephanie RothCasa BramoCFOGDPCL=F
– Consumer resilience is surprising airlines despite rising costs.
– Inflation may persist without demand destruction.
– Historical data suggests lower inflation without reduced demand is rare.
– Tuition fees and other costs are emotionally impacting consumers.
inflation pressuresconsumer resilienceairline pricing strategies
▸ Full transcript
Critical here when you try and judge what the path is for inflation, and you've got an airline CFO telling you that maybe fares can increase more from here. We've talked to the airlines over the past number of months as oil prices have gone higher and higher, and repeatedly they have told us that they have been surprised at the consumer resilience to absorb higher prices. It's a lack of demand destruction that they have seen from this, whether it's United or Delta or even American. Today, American and United came out and said that their response will be to cut capacity but to keep prices high because ultimately, so many businesses out there have no more tolerance to absorb those price increases; they are going to pass them along. Well, I mean, it's like anybody taking their kids back to school this weekend. There's no tolerance to have price increases. Why just am I just passing them? No, but I think with the challenges everybody in this economy has, Neil Dodd absolutely nailed it. Stephanie Roth absolutely nailed it. Is there looking for some miraculous free launch of lower inflation with no, as you call it, demand destruction? I'm just going to call it a lesser real GDP overlay on top of that dramatically lower inflation. Show me the history book where that's occurred. I'm waiting. Inflation at Casa Bramo. Is that what you're alluding to? I think everybody's dealing with it right now. Everybody's going week into weekend. Tuition fees are a whole other story and don't get me off on that ramp. But I will tell. Is that just that? At 3:30 and you just press the buttons because she's exhausted by this point. Right. Just lighting up tuition fees. But it's deeply emotional taking children back to school. College? Forget it.
Analysis

Airline CFOs indicate that fares may continue to rise as they cut capacity in response to high oil prices, reflecting a lack of consumer demand destruction. This suggests that businesses are increasingly passing on costs to consumers, indicating persistent inflationary pressures.

Smart money should note that the resilience of consumer spending amidst rising prices may not lead to the anticipated miraculous drop in inflation without a corresponding decrease in demand. Historical trends suggest that lower inflation without demand destruction is unlikely, raising concerns about the sustainability of current economic conditions.

12:34
PDT
President Trump criticizes the Fed's rate hike as politically motivated.
President TrumpKevin WarshFOMCNorth CarolinaKush DesaiFox NewsDemocratic PartyWhite HousePort EdFEDFUNDSCL=F
– He urges FOMC members to support a rate cut for economic growth.
– The upcoming midterm elections may influence Fed policy perceptions.
– Market sentiment could be affected by the interplay of politics and monetary policy.
– Trump's framing of economic issues reflects a real estate developer's perspective.
Fed policypolitical influencemidterm elections
▸ Full transcript
by a Fed chair they chose only a number of months ago. That's exactly right. Who didn't deliver the decision that President Trump preferred, which of course is a rate cut. He's made no secret about that, though he hasn't commented on this decision yet today. We have heard from his special assistant and deputy press secretary, Kush Desai, who spoke on Fox News saying that the rate hike was unfortunate, that it isn't going to do anything to bring oil prices down, though he also added that the president still respects Fed independence and believes in it. Of course, President Trump, when advocating for a rate cut, comes at it with the frame of reference of a real estate developer. He sees the U.S. as a very credit-worthy borrower and therefore deserving of a lower interest rate. Even an economic theory would indicate that's not exactly how that works. He also has suggested that he is willing to give Kevin Warsh as a new chair some room here, blaming instead the other members of the FOMC. He said repeatedly he has another board to deal with and he's encouraged those other FOMC members to get more patriotic and get on board with a rate cut. The other thing I will say here is of course we're 48 days out from the midterm elections and Trump has made no secret of his view that the cutting cycle that began in September of 2024, about a month and a half out from that election was politically motivated to help the incumbent Democratic Party who had the White House. Now at the September meeting, a hiking cycle for whatever duration beginning, I wouldn't be surprised to see the president cast that as politically motivated as well. One more thing I will say, if we haven't heard from him on true social, He is traveling to North Carolina tonight in Port Ed.
Analysis

The recent Fed rate hike has drawn criticism from President Trump, who views it as politically motivated and detrimental to economic growth. Despite this, he acknowledges the Fed's independence while urging FOMC members to consider a rate cut to support the economy ahead of the midterm elections.

Smart money should note that the political implications of Fed decisions are becoming increasingly pronounced, with potential impacts on market sentiment as the elections approach. The ongoing tension between economic policy and political motivations could lead to volatility in financial markets as stakeholders react to both Fed actions and political rhetoric.

12:32
PDT
Fed's inflation target is a rolling three-year outlook.
Federal ReserveNeil DunterJohn FarrowBramSamWall StreetWashington ExhibitorFEDFUNDS
– Tighter monetary policy may be necessary to control inflation.
– Market expectations may not align with Fed's inflation management strategy.
– The Fed is balancing aggregate supply and demand without sector favoritism.
– Uncertainty in forward guidance could lead to increased market volatility.
Fed policyinflation targetingeconomic growth
▸ Full transcript
You know, is the 2% always going to be like three years away? And if the Fed's not comfortable with that, that means that they're going to have to engineer weaker economic activity to meet their goals. And it's irrelevant whether that affects things that are already quite depressed, even more so. I mean, the Fed's job is ultimately to balance aggregate supply and aggregate demand. They can't be picking winners and losers in terms of sectors in the economy. I think that's something that people are missing right now. It's a rolling three-year target. You know that. Neil, thank you. Neil Dunter there. A friend, Mac. It's always a rolling three-year target. It's out there somewhere. We're going to achieve it, Bram. We'll get there someday. And evidently, three years is now more timely than three years, three years ago. That was the biggest contradiction in all of this. Yeah. Wasn't it? And ultimately, he answered it by saying, well, it's not my contradiction. It's other people's. So what's he suggesting? What's he saying? What's his inflation forecast? I'm not going to give you forward guidance, John. You're not going to give it to you. You're not a newsletter. I'm not a newsletter. That was my favorite line, too. Thank you. A moment ago, Sam, that was their favorite mine as well. And not a Wall Street newsletter. Exactly. And the chairman of the Federal Reserve. To the Washington Exhibitor. It was really interesting. I think I would say John important. And folks, this is a pro insight. And that the pros like John Farrow go to spread analysis comparing two yields and those dynamics, which has four outcomes, in any given moment. I wonder, John, and I'm not sure, as you're not sure, after just minutes after this moment that we saw. But I'm not sure where single point analysis is more germane and I'm losing st-
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's commitment to a rolling three-year inflation target suggests a potential need for tighter monetary policy to balance economic activity. This could lead to weaker economic growth as the Fed aims to control inflation, which may not align with current market expectations.

Smart money should note that the Fed's reluctance to provide forward guidance indicates uncertainty in their inflation forecast, which could lead to market volatility. The focus on aggregate supply and demand rather than sector-specific outcomes may create broader implications for various asset classes.

12:29
PDT
Yields are up due to Fed's rate hike expectations.
Federal Reserve SystemKevin WarshMichael FerroleJP Morgan
– Market perceives rate hikes as removing accommodation, not a sign of weakness.
– Equities are down 1%, indicating market caution.
– Banks are experiencing significant declines.
– The yield curve is flattening, suggesting lower growth expectations.
Fed policyinterest ratesmarket expectations
▸ Full transcript
As to why yields are up at these levels, I was writing down the three reasons and thinking to myself, it was as if he was listening to all of the different analysts that come on every single day that say the same thing. What's notable is if you end up hiking rates and you do believe it is just removing accommodation, that allows the economy to still be strong, which is ultimately maybe what we're seeing reflected in long-term yields. They're not materially dropping the flat yield curve as you're talking about, because this is just the new neutral. Again, the data's gonna have to bear it out. We don't have a clear sense of exactly whether this is the actuality or not. But I think we've got a lot of clarity on his worldview today. I love this. This is from somebody very informed coming in who needs to be private, unfortunately. He called it a nonsense press. Oh, Reveilleous source. No, no, it doesn't matter. Just somebody on the street who follows us a lot. But I think there's more going on here. The markets are speaking right now into the close with a correlated vengeance. What didn't they like in the news conference? I think this is the new wash. I mean, to give the chairman credit, he said, I'm changing things. Guess what? We saw it today. I'm not going to elaborate too much on this. I'm just going to give you an initial take on what I see in the price action right now. I don't know if this continues. It's just an early observation. Yes, fair. Equities down 1%. Banks are getting hammered and the yield curve is flatnik. This is the first time really over the last couple of months or so that I'm seeing signs for markets start to price in maybe lower growth. Just on the margin, just a little bit more. We haven't seen much of.
Analysis

Yields are rising as the market adjusts to the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates, indicating a belief that rate hikes are merely removing accommodation rather than signaling economic weakness. This shift is reflected in long-term yields, which remain stable despite the Fed's actions, suggesting a new neutral in the market's outlook.

Smart money should note that the market is beginning to price in lower growth expectations, as evidenced by the recent decline in equities and the flattening yield curve. This could indicate a more cautious approach from investors as they reassess the economic landscape in light of the Fed's recent communications.

12:27
PDT
Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveS&P 500JP MorganMichael FerroleKevin WarshU.S. economyGDPJPUSYield CurveMike McS&P 500
– S&P 500 declined by 0.9% following the Fed's announcement.
– Two-year yields increased by 7 basis points to 473.
– Corporate earnings have accelerated beyond expectations.
– Fed's economic projections indicate rising inflation.
Fed policycorporate earningsinflation dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Not at all. And that's the reason why it's all the more pertinent that he talked about removing accommodation with rate hikes and that potentially more rate hikes are necessary to remove accommodation. I will say that is supported by earnings, which have accelerated beyond the most bullish expectations of everybody out there. What point do the earnings of corporate America reflect the underlying economy versus reflect something different that's happening in corporate America that's tied to capital market? In a way from the animal spirit and nominal real inflation adjusted GDP, I think of Michael Ferrole, JP Morgan, who lifted his Q3 ending September 30, real GDP. And you go, well, can we carry that over into Q4? And certainly the tone of the meeting and everything about it is yes. Equities going into the close, 35 minutes away, by the way, down in this session, we're negative by 0.9% on the S&P 500, still elevated at the front end of the Yield Curve up by seven basis points. Now 473 on twos. Mike McKeeves still standing by. Mike, you're in the news conference, you heard that line as he characterized the US economy, not just strong but strengthening. What were you thinking at that point? Well, you take a look at what the summary of economic projection shows, and it shows that inflation is going to be faster and that the economy is growing, but not at the particular speed that the president would want. And so I think he's maybe making a little bit of a political statement to balance it out a little bit, because if you go into the midterm elections with the central bank saying inflation is going to keep rising. That's something that could be used by the opposition.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point interest rate hike signals a commitment to controlling inflation, with potential for more hikes before year-end. Despite a hawkish tone, the market reacted negatively, with the S&P 500 down by 0.9% and two-year yields rising, indicating concerns about economic growth and inflation dynamics.

Smart money should note the divergence between corporate earnings performance and underlying economic indicators, as earnings have exceeded expectations while GDP growth remains uncertain. The Fed's messaging may also reflect political considerations ahead of midterm elections, complicating the narrative around inflation and economic strength.

12:25
PDT
Three rate hikes may not significantly slow the economy.
Kevin WarshFederal ReserveU.S. economyAIFed Chair Kevin WarshFEDFUNDSGC=F
– AI-driven sectors are less sensitive to interest rate changes.
– Fed Chair Warsh maintains a bullish outlook on economic strength.
– Skepticism exists regarding productivity gains from AI.
– Inflation is expected to soften, potentially reducing the need for rate hikes.
Fed policyeconomic growthAI impact
▸ Full transcript
Good for the economy and the growth that we've seen. Stephanie, we're all still with us. Do you agree with that? Do you think that this economy could potentially not roll over but slow to a crawl in the face of three rate hikes? I don't know. I don't think three rate hikes will do it. There's so much going on that's not really so rate sensitive, especially on the AI side. Of course, there are parts of the economy like the housing market, which has been struggling and will continue to be challenged by this. I think what's going to end up happening, though, is inflation will come in softer and they're not going to have to deliver quite as many hikes as what's in the price now. Were you surprised at all, Neil, when we heard from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh that when he came into the job his underlying feeling was that ultimately the U.S. economy was accelerating and that it was a lot stronger than people previously thought? Did that surprise you? I mean, I don't know. I mean, he's been bullish on the economy. I would say that the bullishness isn't a function of the stuff that he's generally talked about, which is this sort of AI-driven productivity golden age. There's not really much evidence. I mean, the statement talks about how productivity is strong. I must tell you, I don't really see that, at least not for the first couple of quarters for which we have data. But yeah, I mean, he's an economic optimist. But the reasons for optimism are not really about the kind of supply-driven positive supply shock story that he's been touting through his nominating process and you know up to you know pretty recently.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted a potential slowdown in the economy despite anticipated rate hikes, with a focus on the resilience of sectors less sensitive to interest rates, particularly AI. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's bullish outlook on the economy was noted, although skepticism remains regarding the actual productivity gains attributed to AI advancements.

Smart money should consider that while the Fed may not need to implement as many rate hikes as currently priced in, the underlying economic strength may not be as robust as suggested. The divergence between sectors affected by rate sensitivity and those driven by technological advancements could create investment opportunities.

12:23
PDT
Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance aligns with a bullish economic outlook.
Federal ReserveKevin WarshBank of AmericaGoldman SachsS&P 500FEDFUNDS
– The Fed may not need to cool the economy significantly to control inflation.
– Current discussions suggest a potential shift towards a higher neutral rate.
– The yield curve is flattening, indicating changing market expectations.
– There is skepticism about the sufficiency of current restrictive policies.
Fed policyinterest rateseconomic outlook
▸ Full transcript
I don't know. I heard Kevin Warsh somewhat more hawkish than his colleagues. How is that especially surprising? Mr. Sarkin, I mean, it's a sequence here. No follow-up questions. Move the seats around. We're worried about this, that, and that. Claudia, so I'm screaming about, tell us what you really think. I didn't hear much about what he really thinks. That's getting to what Neil really thinks. I'm thinking back to something that Neil said when this Fed chair was appointed. Neil, do you think this Fed chair duped the president? I mean, I think, look, in my professional career, Kevin Warsh has always been more comfortable making the hawkish case. Generally speaking, he seems to be, it's on the tone of his press conference, somewhat more hawkish on rates, and I think it makes sense because he's more bullish on the economy. So it makes sense, but he's more hawkish on rates. So that's kind of where I'm at with it. So when he refuses. I would have said he was or whatever, I mean he's always been hawkish. He refuses to engage. He was the wrong guy to sell the double-stay. He refuses to engage in the conversation on whether we are restrictive or not. Now whenever he's asked about it, he always points to financial conditions and says the same thing. That's not the same thing. He's asked about the interest rate and whether he believes we are sufficiently restrictive. If he is as hawkish as you believe he is, why do you think he won't engage that question? I mean, you kind of have to, like he's talking about removing a dose of accommodation. So presumably that means the economies that the policy, the sense of policy is still.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent hawkish tone suggests a stronger economic outlook, with Kevin Warsh indicating a bullish stance on rates. This reflects a broader sentiment that the economy may not require significant cooling to achieve inflation targets, challenging previous assumptions about monetary policy effectiveness.

Smart money should note the potential for a sustained higher neutral rate, as the Fed's reluctance to engage on whether current rates are sufficiently restrictive hints at a complex economic landscape. The flattening yield curve indicates shifting market expectations, which could signal a re-evaluation of growth and inflation dynamics in the coming months.

12:20
PDT
Fed's longer-run estimates revised upward, indicating a hawkish shift.
Federal ReserveBank of AmericaGoldman SachsMetLifeUBSJohn WilliamsCharles GoodhartHugh VanCenasNewt VicksalFEDFUNDS
– Unemployment rate revised down, core inflation revised up.
– Market expectations are adjusting from a single rate hike to potentially more.
– Labor market conditions are stabilizing, impacting inflation forecasts.
– The need to cool the economy to achieve 2% inflation is debated.
Fed policyinflation expectationslabor market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
I'm a little skeptical that it's just going to be one more. I think the Fed will end up delivering more than that. But if you look at their forecast revisions, I mean, what do people really expect? I mean, the unemployment rate was revised down, core inflation was revised up. I mean, to the extent that they raised their longer-run estimate, that means they're kind of moving the policy rate in tandem with that. So the overall level of the policy stance, restrictive or accommodative, doesn't really change. And I think the bigger question that markets need to deal with here is, do you actually need to cool the economy down to get inflation to 2 percent? There's a lot of people that don't seem to think that. And I don't know. And so that's kind of where I'm at right now. I mean, I think a lot of the sort of one-and-done kind of discussion that we saw going into this is really just it's sort of like the nature of the sell side, right? Like a few weeks ago, no one even thought that they would hike in September. Some people thought the next move would be a cut, right? So you kind of have to mark to market your forecast. And now you have to start to think a little bit about where we're going to go over the next three to six months. Yeah. And, you know, my general sense is we know that labor market conditions have stabilized at the margin. The fact that employment is running above break-even implies that the bias for the unemployment rate at least over the next couple of months is lower. And there's still pass-through from all the things the Fed has highlighted.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent forecast revisions indicate a more hawkish stance, with a downward revision of the unemployment rate and an upward revision of core inflation. This suggests that the Fed may need to implement more than one additional rate hike to manage inflation effectively.

Smart money should note that the market's previous expectations of a single rate hike are shifting, reflecting a broader reassessment of economic conditions and the Fed's policy trajectory. The stabilization of the labor market and the implications for unemployment suggest that inflation control may require more aggressive measures than previously anticipated.

12:18
PDT
Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points.
Federal ReserveS&P 500Bank of AmericaGoldman SachsMetLifeUBSJackson HoleMickey BowmanStephanie RothDrew MattisJohn WilliamsCharles GoodhartFEDFUNDSS&P 500PRIVATE
– Hawkish tone indicates potential for more hikes before year-end.
– Inflation driven by external factors like oil and supply chain issues.
– Flattening yield curve suggests market caution despite strong GDP growth.
– Focus on financial conditions indicates a longer-term interest rate outlook.
Fed policyinterest ratesinflation driversyield curve dynamics
▸ Full transcript
It is just a reordering of the economy. Mike McKee, don't go anywhere. Just a reset. If you're just joining us, welcome to the program, live on TV and radio. This, of course, is Bloomberg's surveillance of Fed's special. Tune in after a 25 basis point interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve, implied by their own forecast, maybe one 25 basis point interest rate hike still to come before year-end. And the possibility of the potential there is more to come in 2027. Off the back of that, and a rather hawkish opening statement from the Federal Reserve chair and the news conference, equities declining going into the close. We're down by about three quarters of 1% now on the S&P 500 rolling over. You'll see in the bond market, two-year yields are elevated off the back of this as well. The two-year at the front end of the curve up by six basis points to about 472. The long end, come again. We're starting to see that curve flatter. Again, we're down by about two basis points on 30s at about 535. The chairman of the Federal Reserve had a few things to say about where monetary policy is and isn't right now. You can listen to what he had to say about the start potentially of a process. My commitment in June was to reaffirm to the American people, to anyone listening, that we will deliver price stability. My commitment in July was to say we want to buy a little bit of time. We want to evaluate what's happening across a range of dimensions. And what I said in Jackson Hole in August is we're committed to a discipline, not to a decision. Today's action starts to show we're serious about this.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, signaling a hawkish stance and the potential for further hikes before year-end. This move reflects a commitment to price stability, despite ongoing inflationary pressures from external factors like oil prices and supply chain issues.

Smart money should note that the Fed's focus on financial conditions suggests a longer-term view on interest rates, potentially indicating a new normal for the economy. The flattening yield curve may signal market skepticism about sustained growth, despite strong nominal GDP projections.

12:16
PDT
Yields are flattening, with the front end rising and the long end falling.
Kevin WarshMike McKeeStephanie RothBank of AmericaGoldmanMetLifeUBSCharles GoodhartHugh VanCenasJohn WilliamsNewt VicksalFTFEDFUNDS
– The Fed's hawkish stance indicates rates may remain elevated.
– Market expectations are shifting towards a new neutral rate.
– Geopolitical factors and supply chain issues are influencing inflation.
– Nominal GDP growth is a key consideration for future rate adjustments.
yield curve dynamicsFed policyinflation driversnominal GDP growth
▸ Full transcript
We'll just take a sneak peek at things right now. Yields are down at the long end, up at the front end. That's a flatter curve, up by six or seven basis points on two. So that's the highest yield at the front end of the curve, gone back to July 24. Seven days of this now, Brammo, at the front end of the curve. Something we've seen just a little hint of, a flatter curve, starting to see it even more so this afternoon. I wonder if that's the start of a bigger trend here for this market, that flatter curve, driven not just by the front end, but also at the long end as well. There is an expression that this is the new neutral, that rates are not going to come down materially, even if the Fed does hike rates by three more times this year. And ultimately, how much do you see that as the expression of 5% 10-year yields, even with potentially a pretty hawkish tone? We had Lucas before, Charles Goodhart, Hugh VanCenas writing up on Goodhart in the FT, I believe it was. Today, our historic moment today was Newt Vicksal 1898, where he trotted it out as some form of academics of the real rate. I would love to know what John Williams thought about this press conference. When I was with Waller a number of months ago, my question stopped him was are there two real rates for America? The haves have a real rate and the have-nots have a real rate. John Williams basically codified the real rate and this guy's quoting Newt Vicksell from 1898; the only one I know that can quote 1898 intelligently is John Reiting. That's it. I mean, this ability for him to trot out, who's going to be the next historic moment he's going to trot out? I'll let you pick, John. Mike McKee, Mike, bring us some history right now. He wants to add into this conversation.
Analysis

Yields are down at the long end and up at the front end, indicating a flatter curve, which may signal a new trend in the market. The Fed's hawkish tone suggests that rates may not decrease significantly, even with potential hikes ahead, reflecting a shift in market expectations regarding the neutral rate.

Smart money should note that the current flattening of the yield curve could indicate a persistent high rate environment, driven by factors beyond the Fed's control, such as geopolitical tensions and supply chain issues. The focus on nominal GDP growth suggests that market participants may need to recalibrate their expectations for future interest rates and economic performance.

12:14
PDT
US economy growth is perceived as stronger than expected.
US economyFedBank of AmericaGoldmanDrew MattisMetLifeUBSUSGDPFEDFUNDSPRIVATEGC=F
– Discussion of a higher neutral rate is gaining traction.
– Market volatility is impacting bank stocks negatively.
– Nominal GDP growth remains robust despite Fed tightening.
– Long-term rates are reacting to Fed's hawkish signals.
Fed policynominal GDP growthbank stock volatility
▸ Full transcript
The committee was that the US economy was strengthening. The underlying growth was higher than people think. Do people have to start thinking about a higher neutral rate and the persistence of this, not only as a new normal, but potentially significantly higher in the foreseeable future? I mean, I think that is what markets, and to some extent the Fed was telling you today because they shifted up their long run. I don't think that's ultimately gonna be how this plays out. I mean, you consistently hear people talking about six and a half percent nominal GDP growth and concerned about is this, you know, is 5% actually the right level of the 10 year, given where nominal GDP growth is gonna be, if you fast forward a couple of quarters, that's gonna be a lot slower than where we are today. Drew Mattis, emailing in from MetLife, with all those work at UBS, John, over the years, long end rates rose equals failure. And where the markets are placing right now, particularly the correlated markets away from the basic five things we look at, some of these are shocking moves that we're seeing. I have real trouble believing it's just about the data to the restrictive point, it's about this booming nominal GDP economy. He did allude to that to give him. If you want some tough moves in the market today, check out the equity market, lift the lid on things and look at the banks. Banks are getting knocked about off the back of this decision. They've had some difficult guidance from the likes of Bank of America more recently too, but I just noticed Goldman on the Bloomberg drop in some four, five percentage points this afternoon, Brammo, going into the close of the next 45 minutes or so. Banks have held up really well through the years so far. In fact, they've traded really well because nominal GDP is so strong. The back of that hawkish fed speed. Just starting to see those banks.
Analysis

The US economy is showing signs of strengthening, leading to discussions about a potentially higher neutral rate and the persistence of this trend. Market reactions indicate that the Fed's hawkish stance is influencing long-term rates, particularly affecting banks negatively despite strong nominal GDP growth.

Smart money should note that the correlation between rising long-end rates and market performance is shifting, as evidenced by the recent volatility in bank stocks. The focus on nominal GDP growth may not align with the Fed's tightening measures, suggesting a disconnect that could create further market opportunities.

12:12
PDT
Equities fell 0.4% following hawkish Fed comments.
Federal ReserveKevin WarshMike McKeeStephanie RothDXYGrand WarFEDFUNDS
– Two-year yields rose to their highest since July 2024.
– Fed Chairman highlighted inflation categories above 3% as a key metric.
– Geopolitical tensions, chip shortages, and tariffs are major inflation drivers.
– Market expectations for further Fed action have increased.
Fed policyinflation metricsgeopolitical risks
▸ Full transcript
I think the market is just expecting that he sounded a lot more hawkish than they expected. Now the price is in a greater string of price. I don't think it's necessarily a lack of credibility comment here. I think it's more about they're going to do more than certainly many expected before the meeting. Let's just unpack inflation. So he's given us a metric now. There's a target to focus on. It's the amount of inflation categories above and more than 3%. So we'll look at that. What's influencing that? What are the dominant sources of inflation right now? Let's just start there. What are they? I mean, I would say there's three main categories of inflation that are driving above-trend inflation. It's been the Grand War, which you talked about in terms of geopolitics driving yields higher. It's been the chip shortage, which I would argue is the most important one to keep an eye on because that's something that hasn't gone away. And then the combination of the tariffs that have been in place. Now those are going to be very much rolling off, right? So when we're thinking about what's the inflation and the percentage of inflation categories that are going to be above 3% in a couple of months' time, when we forecast that out, those metrics are going to look a lot lower in a couple of months' time. The three and six, so he's been talking about the six and 12-month trend of that. If you look at the three-month, it's down a lot. The six and 12-month will follow. So because of those three categories, you're going to see it look a lot better in a couple of months' time. It's obvious why I just asked that question. You identified three things that have absolutely nothing to do with the right policy of the Federal Reserve.
Analysis

The market reacted to a hawkish tone from the Fed Chairman, leading to a 0.4% decline in equities and a rise in bond yields, particularly on the two-year note which reached its highest yield since July 2024. The Chairman emphasized the need for tighter financial conditions to combat elevated inflation, indicating that further action may be necessary to achieve the 2% inflation target.

Smart money should note that the Fed is focusing on specific inflation categories above 3%, which could signal a shift in policy if these metrics do not improve. The ongoing geopolitical tensions, chip shortages, and tariffs are key drivers of inflation that the Fed may not fully control, suggesting that external factors could complicate their policy effectiveness in the near term.

12:09
PDT
Fed chairman's hawkish comments led to a 0.4% drop in equities.
Federal ReserveKevin WarshMike McKeeJennifer SchaunbergerMickey BowmanStephanie RothIowa FinanceMy McGovernor Mickey BowmanWolf ResearchJackson HoleFEDFUNDSCL=F
– Inflation remains elevated, with the Fed committed to a 2% target.
– Financial conditions are not currently viewed as restrictive by the Fed.
– The Fed's influence over energy prices is limited, complicating inflation control.
– Upcoming Fed officials' comments will provide further insights into monetary policy direction.
Fed policyinflation dynamics
▸ Full transcript
which said they're gonna bring inflation down in a timely or matter. And then they say they're not. So how they square that, I don't know. I would have also liked to ask him where they see inflation that the Fed can't affect because obviously they can't affect the price of oil and other commodities. Mike, thank you buddy. Stay close, we'll come back to you in the next 30 minutes or so. My McKee, breaking it down. Last point is a really important point. How much influence do they have over the dominant sources of inflation right now? think of one which is oil and energy and they don't have much influence over that at all. Which is the reason why they're looking at the broadening out the second the third order affairs I will say we didn't hear from Kevin Warsh how he squares that circle we will hear from all the other Fed officials as they speak in the upcoming weeks and ultimately this is a great question to ask them and we will get their sense of what timeliness really means. I think we've got Governor Mickey Bowman coming up on Friday don't we? I think she'll have words. Friday morning going into the weekend she'll have some things to say. We've got Stephanie Roth of Wolf Research with us around the table Let's start there Stephanie. Good afternoon. Hello. What would you take away from this decision this afternoon? It was a hawkish one. And it was consistent with his comments at Jackson Hole. There was a question about whether he really believed them or to what extent that was just fixing prior communications. But he kept coming back to financial conditions and talking about looting that they're not really restrictive at this point. And it was a very believable delivery of a relatively hawkish hike. What did you make of the commentary about how removing some of the accommodation is how he views today's move.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance has led to a decline in equities, with a 0.4% drop following the chairman's remarks on inflation and financial conditions. The Fed's commitment to achieving price stability suggests that further rate hikes may be on the horizon, despite concerns about the impact on the job market.

Smart money should note the Fed's acknowledgment of limited influence over key inflation drivers like energy prices, indicating a potential disconnect between monetary policy and actual inflation dynamics. The focus on financial conditions suggests that market participants should brace for continued volatility as the Fed navigates its dual mandate amidst external inflationary pressures.

12:07
PDT
Fed signals commitment to price stability.
Kevin WarshFederal ReserveMike McKeeWhile Kevin WarshMike McFEDFUNDSGOOGL
– Equities declined by 0.4% following the Fed's statement.
– Bond yields increased, with two-year yields breaching 4.70%.
– Chairman Warsh's communication style has shifted to be more direct.
– Focus on inflation breadth indicates potential future policy tightening.
Fed policyinflation dynamics
▸ Full transcript
The inflation print just in the last week showed a difference between 0.2 and 0.3, which indicated whether the market would price a hike or a hold. While Kevin Warsh wasn't waiting breathlessly, everybody in the market was, and ultimately, they traded on that. Mike McKee was in the news conference. We've all got a home bias, of course. Mike McKee always asked the best question in the news conference. Before we get to that, I want to talk about the difference in the cadence. This was a different performance. It was a different setup. It was a very different news conference compared to what we heard at the end of July. Mike, you were in it. What changed? Well, a lot changed. They changed the seating chart for one thing and moved reporters all around by alphabetical order in an effort, they say, to give more fairness. They certainly called on a lot of different reporters this time. You noticed that Kevin Warsh was much more direct. He spoke in very short soundbites and did not give us long answers about what they think the economy is doing. He was just very direct. Also, I think that he is trying very hard not to give us anything to hang on to, although he did in his statement, which was a little more direct than he did in July, say, as you mentioned, that he is worried about the breadth of inflation. So a different style. It was much shorter, only 30 minutes, and a different kind of questioning was sort of brought forth. Make that word timelier to get inflation back to target in a timely manner.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent actions signal a commitment to price stability, with Chairman Warsh emphasizing a disciplined approach rather than a definitive decision. The market reacted to this hawkish tone, leading to a decline in equities and an increase in bond yields, particularly at the front end of the curve.

Smart money should note the shift in the Fed's communication style, which has become more direct and concise, reflecting a heightened focus on inflation dynamics. The emphasis on the breadth of inflation categories suggests that the Fed is closely monitoring underlying inflation pressures, which could influence future monetary policy decisions.

12:05
PDT
Fed Chairman prioritizes discipline in inflation control.
Federal ReserveBen BernankeDXYMBAFOMCFed ChairJackson HoleDXYFEDFUNDS
– Yield curve flattening indicates market reactions to Fed's hawkish stance.
– Inflation categories above 3% will be key metrics for future Fed decisions.
– Financial conditions are tightening with lower stock prices and higher bond yields.
– Market projections for inflation target achievement have been pushed to 2029.
Fed policyinflation metrics
▸ Full transcript
are not restrictive in any way, shape, or form. I'm going to keep my opinion out of it because we've got wonderful guests coming up. I will editorialize that was a disaster. And as Lisa's noticed, it moved like a hockey stick move, which is what Ben Bernanke would call it. There was a hockey stick move, and I heard a single sentence, and this is the heart of the matter. And he said we're looking at discipline, not a decision. He's running an MBA course out at Stanford, and the rest of the economists are trying to do macroeconomics. I'm not sure I would agree. I don't know that he would think that this was actually a disaster because ultimately we saw a flattening in the yield curve. And you saw a capping at the long end of it. I got the 30-year real yield on three basis points to a new record high. I got 2.8 standard deviations on DXY. Those are tight. Those are huge moves. If this FOMC committee is truly concerned about inflation, they should not be concerned about the idea that there is a little bit more restrictiveness being baked into financial conditions, which count as lower stock prices and higher bond yields at the front end. Ultimately, isn't that exactly what he's calling for? A lot of people have criticized this Fed Chair for not articulating a reaction function. I think he's given us something here, and he gave us something in Jackson Hole too. The number of inflation categories that are trading above or printing above 3%, he referenced that once again. That's going to be a key metric for this market every time we get the inflation report. How many inflation categories are still rising more than 3%? Are you seeing increased decline remain the same, and is that going to be your steer for how hawkish to order.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized a commitment to discipline over decisions, indicating a hawkish stance on inflation control. This has led to a flattening of the yield curve, with significant moves in bond yields and stock prices reflecting increased financial restrictiveness.

Smart money should note the focus on inflation categories exceeding 3%, as this metric will guide future Fed actions. The Chairman's remarks suggest that the market may need to brace for further tightening, despite current projections extending the timeline for achieving the 2% inflation target to 2029.

12:02
PDT
Fed Chairman's hawkish tone drives equities lower.
Federal ReserveNick TimerosNeil IrwinMichael McKeeMattJennifer SchaunbergerAxiosBloomberg Radio and TelevisionIowa FinanceFed ChairmanFed ChairMichael McFEDFUNDS
– Bond yields rise, indicating market expectations of further rate hikes.
– Fed's removal of accommodation suggests a proactive stance on inflation.
– Inflation projections extended to 2029 raise concerns about economic growth.
– Market believes more Fed action is likely in the future.
Fed policyinflation outlookbond market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
This afternoon. Good afternoon to you all. This is the price action. A hawkish opening statement from a Fed chairman happened to drive equities lower down on the session by 0.4%. In the bond market, two's, ten's, and thirty's just sit on the front end of the curve. Yields are up six basis points on twos. We breach 470 on a two-year. We're higher for a seventh consecutive session, the highest yield at the front end of the curve since July 2024. As for the hawkish speak, take a listen to the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Inflation remains elevated. Today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% goal. I would be hard pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive. This view was widely shared by the committee. So we removed a dose of accommodation. We removed a dose of accommodation. A subtle sign that maybe you'll have to do just a little bit more of that. This line from the Fed Chairman, today's action starts to show that we're serious about this. It starts to show that we're serious about this. This market believes there's more action to come from this Fed Chair. It isn't just a statement of economic projections, and Michael McKee asked a great question of how do you reconcile a statement of economic projections that doesn't see inflation at 2% until 2029. This Fed Chair said those are not my projections. We will deliver price stability. Today's action, to your point, starts to show we're serious about this, and that is where you saw the inflection lower when it comes to soccer.
Analysis

Equities fell 0.4% following a hawkish statement from the Fed Chairman, with bond yields rising across the curve, particularly a six basis point increase on two-year notes, reaching their highest since July 2024. The Fed's commitment to removing accommodation signals a serious approach to achieving its 2% inflation target, despite projections indicating that this goal may not be reached until 2029.

12:00
PDT
Inflation is primarily driven by energy prices and tariffs, but expectations remain anchored.
Federal ReserveChairman WarshJennifer SchaunbergerIowa FinanceAI
– The Fed does not see a need to push growth below potential to control inflation.
– Chairman Warsh asserts that price stability and full employment can coexist.
– The competition for capital is increasing, impacting long-term bond yields.
– Geopolitical factors are influencing market dynamics beyond just energy prices.
Fed policyinflation dynamicslabor market stability
▸ Full transcript
And that's where we'll be focused. Thank you for the last question. We'll go to Jennifer Schaunberger. Is that right? Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Jennifer Schaunberger with the Iowa Finance. Inflation has run up mostly from higher energy prices and tariffs, which some say are supply shocks that rate hikes cannot fix and should fade on their own. So long as inflation expectations stay anchored. And now that you have hiked rates, do you need to push growth below potential, unintentionally pushing weakness on the job market to bring inflation down, and how do those dynamics play out given the forcefulness with which AI is driving the economy right now? So there's a lot there, Jennifer. Let me see if I can't do just a little bit of it. First, we believe that the unemployment rate is basically running consistent with full employment. I don't believe that we need to do harm to the labor markets to achieve our objective. I don't believe that the two parts of our mandate, price stability and full employment, are working at cross purposes over the medium term. So economic growth, that is ensuring continuous sustainable, durable economic growth, that's the business we're in. And the job we did today, the job we'll continue to do, is to ensure price stability, which can mean that sustainable, durable economic growth can go on.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent rate hike aims to ensure price stability, with Chairman Warsh emphasizing that the U.S. economy is strengthening and inflation remains a critical issue. He believes that achieving price stability does not necessitate harming the labor market, indicating a balanced approach to monetary policy.

11:58
PDT
The Fed is focused on achieving price stability.
Federal ReserveBrian ChungMiriamMette YevfronNick TimerosChairman WarshNeil IrwinMattCNNJackson HoleG20BaselFEDFUNDS
– Independence from fiscal policy is crucial for the Fed's effectiveness.
– Concerns about AI's impact on the economy are rising.
– Long-term bond yields are influenced by competition for capital and geopolitical factors.
– Inflation remains a central issue for the Fed.
Fed policyAI impact on economy
▸ Full transcript
We want to evaluate what's happening across a range of dimensions. What I said in Jackson Hole in August is we're committed to a discipline, not to a decision. Today's action starts to show we're serious about this, and we will deliver on the price stability objective. As the statement said, we'll do it on a timely basis. That's our decision. When we continue our discussions over the course of the next several weeks and months, we will have more to say about it, but I'm ill-prepared to prejudge those future actions. Matt from CNN. Thanks, Chairman Warsh. Matt, you're coming to CNN. You've spoken in the past about the positives that could come from widespread adoption of artificial intelligence. How concerned are you, if at all, about these increasingly alarming warnings we've heard from AI leaders about losing control of this powerful technology and doing real-world damage, damage that would presumably impact the real economy? So I've spent a lot of time thinking about AI. Before I found my way to this post, I spent a lot of time talking about it publicly. The independence of the Federal Reserve is about staying in our lane. We care very much about what's happening in artificial intelligence. We care much about the implications on the demand side of the economy and ultimately on the supply side of the economy. I care so.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve is committed to achieving price stability and has taken action to demonstrate its seriousness about this objective. The Chairman emphasized that the Fed's independence allows it to focus on monetary policy without interference from fiscal or trade policy decisions.

Smart money should note that the Fed's approach to inflation is not just about immediate rate hikes but also about the broader implications of economic growth and stability. The mention of artificial intelligence indicates a growing concern about its impact on the economy, suggesting that future monetary policy may need to adapt to technological advancements.

11:56
PDT
Increased competition for capital is raising yields.
Federal ReservehyperscalersJackson HoleMichael McGeeBloomberg Radio and TelevisionMichael McBloomberg RadioPRIVATE
– Geopolitical factors are impacting long-term yields.
– Fed's inflation target achievement pushed to 2029.
– Immediate policy actions may not align with long-term projections.
– Market dynamics are influenced by both economic and geopolitical factors.
capital competitiongeopolitical riskinflation targetseconomic projections
▸ Full transcript
A competition for capital. The surge in capital expenditures, which I referenced in my remarks, is real. The so-called hyperscalers are out in the market raising funding. The competition for capital is real, and I think it partly explains the increase in yields. The third factor is geopolitics. The situation in hot spots around the world is driving long-term yields. It's not simply spot prices of energy or spot prices for corn, soybeans, or wheat, but it's the difference between those spot prices and so-called crack spreads, which affects products that find their way into stores across the country. I think those are the three leading explanations, but certainly not an exclusive list. Michael McGee from Bloomberg Radio and Television. You said in Jackson Hole that you want to see inflation come down clearly and at sufficient speed, which is a standard without necessarily a measurable threshold. The reason I ask is because today you say today's policy action will support a timelier return to the committee's 2% target. Yet in the summary of economic projections, the median pushes the 2% target achievement out to 2029 and other two years. I'm wondering how you can square those two things. One easy way to square that, Mike, is those aren't my four.
Analysis

The competition for capital is intensifying, driven by increased capital expenditures and the activities of hyperscalers raising funding, which is contributing to rising yields. Geopolitical tensions are also influencing long-term yields, highlighting the complex interplay between spot prices and market dynamics.

Despite the Fed's commitment to achieving a 2% inflation target, projections indicate a delay until 2029, suggesting a disconnect between immediate policy actions and long-term economic forecasts. This divergence may signal to investors that while the Fed is taking steps to stabilize prices, underlying economic conditions remain challenging.

11:54
PDT
The Fed raised interest rates to address inflation and support price stability.
Federal ReserveNick TimerosChairman WarshNeil IrwinAxiosWall Street JournalFEDFUNDS
– There is a consensus that the U.S. economy has strengthened recently.
– Long-term bond yields have increased, signaling market expectations for growth.
– The Fed is cautious about data dependence, emphasizing trends over individual data points.
– Geopolitical factors are influencing the Fed's decision-making process.
Fed policyinflation concernseconomic growth
▸ Full transcript
Thank you, Nick Timeros of the Wall Street Journal. Chairman Warsh, last fall you expressed concern that the Fed was about to make its quote sixth or seventh big mistake by deciding the economy was too strong to justify lower rates. Now today you raised rates. Can you give some sense as to what changed your own assessment of the U.S. economy between then and now? So I don't remember the full context, but I can tell you, Nick, about the state of growth now. My suspicion, 110 or 120 days ago when I showed up, was that the U.S. economy was strengthening. Even over the last several weeks, I think we now have data broadly defined that says the economy has indeed strengthened. Underlying growth is higher. Inflation is the problem. Stable prices have been the problem for now more than five and a half years. So what the committee decided to do today was take action to ensure a timely return to our price stability objective. Price stability is foundational to economic growth, and I think we took an important step today to deliver it, and we did it in part by removing the dose of accommodation that I mentioned before. Neil Irwin. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Neil Irwin with Axios. Longer-term bond yields are up quite a bit over the last few months, especially the last few weeks. What do you believe the bond market is telling you, especially about the growth outlook?
Analysis

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates, indicating a strengthening U.S. economy and a commitment to achieving price stability. This decision reflects a shift in assessment from previous concerns about the economy's strength to a recognition of underlying growth and persistent inflation issues.

Smart money should note that the Fed's focus on long-term price stability suggests a more aggressive stance on interest rates moving forward, especially as geopolitical factors and inflation trends remain volatile. The emphasis on removing accommodation indicates that the Fed is prepared to act decisively to maintain economic stability.

11:52
PDT
Fed remains committed to 2% inflation target.
Federal ReservePresident TrumpEuropean Central BankJackson HoleG20BaselAFPUSMette YevfronAgence France PressNorth CarolinaFEDFUNDS
– Global central banks are facing similar price pressures.
– Focus on stable prices may impact consumer spending.
– Interest rate hikes could affect the least well-off consumers.
– Geopolitical factors are influencing Fed decisions.
Fed policyglobal economic pressures
▸ Full transcript
Where inflation is running consistent with our 2% objective, it offers good news because that way when they get their wages, they can put their head above water and deliver real take-home pay increases. We don't have total responsibility for it, but we do have responsibility for stable prices. As I've said before, inflation is a choice, and today we took a step in delivering it. Miriam. Yes, this is Miriam. This is your phone number. You're going to have a mic. Oh, sorry. My name is Mette Yevfron, Agence France Press AFP. Are you looking at the other central banks? And what do you think about the European Central Bank's move? Say, hike twice this year, but not in a row. Thank you. Well, I don't ask them to prejudge decisions that we're going to make. So I won't prejudge decisions that they make. But I will say this. I've spent some time with foreign central bank counterparts, not just in the last 20 years, but over the course of the last several weeks, as I mentioned in Jackson Hole, at the G20 meeting we hosted in North Carolina, and at a central bank meeting in Basel. What I heard around the table from most of the advanced economies is they're suffering from price pressures too. And they're making their own choices consistent with their remit. It tells me a couple of things. One is when the Federal Reserve makes a policy choice, it matters not just to the US economy, but it spills over to the rest of the world.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve emphasized its commitment to achieving stable prices, indicating that recent decisions are aimed at maintaining inflation around the 2% target. The Fed's actions reflect a broader understanding of global economic pressures, as other central banks also face similar price challenges.

Smart money should note that the Fed's focus on stable prices, despite geopolitical uncertainties, suggests a cautious approach to monetary policy that may influence global markets. Additionally, the acknowledgment of the least well-off consumers highlights potential risks in consumer spending as interest rates rise.

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The Fed raised interest rates based on a comprehensive assessment of economic conditions.
Federal ReservePresident TrumpGDPWall StreetFEDFUNDS
– Stable prices are prioritized, particularly benefiting those without financial assets.
– The Fed maintains its independence from political influence.
– Geopolitical factors have influenced the Fed's decision-making process.
– The Fed is cautious about data point dependence in its policy approach.
Fed policyeconomic independence
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What would you say to investors who sort of believe this is another test of the Fed's independence? And then kind of when was the last time you spoke with the president? Do you anticipate a post-decision meeting or? You gave me a long menu from which to choose. They're all very tempting. I don't have anything for you on discussions with the president. And I'm not a Wall Street newsletter. Part of the independence of the Federal Reserve is we stay in our lane. Independence is a two-way street. We'll let people that do trade policy and fiscal policy stay in their lane too. That's how we can stand up here and call them the way we see them. Just wondering if you could explain who is the least well-off and what does a rate hike do when those people might be pinched by higher mortgage rates, higher gas, higher grocery prices and now broad higher rates? Yeah, it's a fair question. In macroeconomics, we tend to look at aggregates around here, aggregate GDP, overall labor market trends, the state of inflation. A lot of people in Washington spend a lot of time on distributional consequences, and that's their job and their business. What I was referring to in the least well-off tend to be people that don't own financial assets, call that a bit less than 50% of the country. They don't have equity in their home. They don't have equity in a 401k plan. So they're living.
Analysis

The Federal Reserve's recent decision to raise interest rates reflects a careful assessment of economic conditions, emphasizing the importance of stable prices for the least well-off Americans. The Fed's independence is highlighted, with a clear stance against being influenced by external pressures, including political figures like President Trump.

Investors should note that the Fed is not reacting to individual data points but rather to broader economic trends, including labor market strength and geopolitical factors. This approach suggests a potential shift in how the Fed communicates its decisions, moving away from data dependence towards a more holistic view of economic indicators.

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