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13:55
PDT
Billionaire athletes symbolize a new wealth paradigm.
AIcryptocurrencybillionaire athletesmediainformationmarketstradegeopoliticsDXY
– Cryptocurrency volatility reflects broader market uncertainties.
– AI funding is escalating, indicating a transformative economic shift.
– Consumer demand for authenticity in media is rising.
– Job markets may face disruption due to AI advancements.
AI fundingcryptocurrency volatilityconsumer authenticity
▸ Full transcript
Some see heroes. Others only egos. We see the era of billionaire athletes. A fad to some. The future of money to others. We see cryptos' trillion-dollar swings. The end of jobs. Or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. It touches on everything that we carry: media and information, markets, trade, and geopolitics.
Analysis

The era of billionaire athletes and the volatility of cryptocurrencies are reshaping perceptions of wealth and investment. The ongoing hype around AI is driving significant funding, indicating a shift in market dynamics that could redefine traditional economic structures.

Smart money should note the potential for AI to disrupt job markets and human labor, as well as the growing influence of cryptocurrencies in financial systems. The focus on authenticity in media and information is becoming crucial as consumers seek reliable sources amidst the noise of misinformation.

13:53
PDT
Brands must adapt to changing consumer engagement patterns across social media platforms.
MetaAlphabetRedditTikTokOpenAIAnthropicYouTubeNectar SocialFarah UrezyMs. BuhMETAGOOGLPRIVATE
– Rising ad costs are forcing brands to seek direct relationships with consumers.
– AI models are prioritizing authentic sources like YouTube and Reddit.
– TikTok's innovation is noteworthy in the current social media landscape.
– The shift towards AI-generated content will impact brand marketing strategies.
consumer engagementAI content generationsocial media marketing
▸ Full transcript
Yeah, I think when it comes to Meta, the Alphabets of the world, they're siloed and focused on their exact channels. Brands are always going to be seeking how to get to wherever the consumer might be next. The consumer is changing their pattern every single day. And so today it's Reddit, tomorrow it's a TikTok video. Brands need to have a direct relationship back to those individuals, back to those consumers. We saw the aftermath of Meta; ads have been going up significantly and brands basically appending overnight because they couldn't keep up, they couldn't pay for the relationships anymore. Ultimately, you as a brand need to have a direct relationship back to the customer, no matter what the platform. Do you have a favorite social media site that you use? Are you allowed to say? My personal favorite? Interesting. I think it's been interesting to see how TikTok has been innovating over the last two years, in particular, because we're so deep in this brand's social kind of ecosystem. But I think more importantly, it's also interesting to see how LLMs, like OpenAI and Anthropic, are prioritizing sources that they deem as authentic. Ultimately, they're looking at YouTube, they're looking at Reddit, and they're continuously citing those sources over others. All right, well, great to have both of you. I'm really fascinated by this and best of luck, and hopefully we can talk again. Thank you so much. All right, Ms. Buh, Urezy and Farah Urezy, of course, the co-founders and co-owners of Nectar Social. We're going to set you up for what to watch over the next week when we come back after the break right here on Bloomberg.
Analysis

Brands are increasingly seeking direct relationships with consumers as their engagement patterns shift rapidly across platforms like Reddit and TikTok. The rise of AI-generated content is reshaping how brands interact with consumers, necessitating a focus on authenticity and relevance in marketing strategies.

Smart money should note that the traditional advertising models are under pressure as brands struggle to maintain effective communication with consumers amidst rising ad costs. The emphasis on direct consumer relationships and the prioritization of authentic sources by AI models could lead to a significant shift in marketing strategies and investment in emerging platforms.

13:51
PDT
AI-generated content is expected to proliferate, complicating authenticity.
RedditNectar SocialSilicon ValleyAI
– Platforms like Reddit are implementing identification systems for content verification.
– Investors are showing interest in AI startups, indicating a growing sector.
– The fight against low-quality AI content will be ongoing.
– Content creation dynamics are shifting towards AI tools.
AI content generationContent authenticityInvestor interest in AI
▸ Full transcript
I understand that this onset a lot of that still pulled from the human, but at some point, if the human is sort of cut out of the process, why should I trust that the information that I'm getting or the recommendations that I'm getting are useful to me? You have to be able to go to the source. This is where we partner with a lot of these platforms like Reddit, for example. All of them have launched an identification for consumers to be able to flag, 'This is AI, this is not authentic content.' Ultimately, they are going to have to control a lot of the authenticity network here to be able to get to this one. Well, yeah, I mean, someone who trolls anonymously on Reddit pretty much constantly every night before I go to bed. I mean, it's like whack-a-mole with AI stuff. There are times, you know, you'll click on something and you'll start reading it, and then you're kind of wrapped by it, and then all of a sudden you realize, wait a minute, this isn't real. I wonder, is this a point where you're just going to, it's going to be just a fight to keep up with AI slop as it sort of proliferates? Yeah, that's a great question. I think short term it's a fight. Ultimately, all content is going to be AI-generated. Just like Photoshop, just like all these different tools, we should be assuming that AI is going to be the next tool that's going to be generating this content and how do we live and operate in that world? Talk to me a little bit about the business, the Nectar Social overall and what you're trying to do here. You've raised money already. Are you currently raising money for another round? We are not. We always have interest from investors on our side, but I think what's really fast is the whole AI economy. If we're based out of headquarters in Silicon Valley, you're probably seeing a lot of AI startups grow in scale.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the ongoing challenges in maintaining authenticity in AI-generated content, emphasizing the need for platforms to implement identification systems for consumers. The speaker suggests that as AI becomes more prevalent, distinguishing between real and AI-generated content will be increasingly difficult, indicating a shift in content creation dynamics.

Smart money should note that the rise of AI-generated content may lead to a saturation of low-quality information, necessitating stronger mechanisms for content verification. This could create opportunities for companies that develop robust authenticity solutions or platforms that prioritize user-generated content over AI-generated material.

13:49
PDT
AI is crucial for understanding consumer behavior and optimizing brand partnerships.
MetaFacebookInstagramAIDeath StarMETA
– Consumer engagement is shifting towards private communities rather than public posting.
– Brands must adapt to changing consumer preferences for authenticity.
– The legacy social media model may need to evolve to remain relevant.
– Insights from past experiences at Meta can inform future strategies.
AI in marketingConsumer behavior trends
▸ Full transcript
By who's authentic, who do we partner with on a brand-safe way versus not? Well, give me a sense as to what that process looks like. I mean, we put up, I think, some of your clients up there on the screen here. So when you're sitting down with them and having these conversations, what do you say to them as to, I guess, how to do it right? Yeah, so a couple of things. On our side, it's really important because we're an AI-native platform. We build a lot of context about who they are and historically how their campaigns performed, what's been working really well for them, what are their competitors doing, the whole ecosystem, what's trending inside these platforms, because ultimately they have to be relevant to all of these consumers. And so I think taking a step back, to be authentic and relevant, you really need to have that single context understanding to be able to scale that with AI. I do have to ask you just about kind of your background. I mean, you were kind of inside the Death Star and Meta. So give me a sense here. I mean, obviously, I mean, they are kind of the social media titans for better or for worse. And they got it right for a lot of years. And for some people would say, they're still getting it right. Is sort of the way that you look at sort of an Instagram, Facebook and some of those types of properties. Is that kind of still our future to a certain extent and it will just adapt or is our future for social media going to be something completely different than what we're seeing from the more traditional or the legacy social media companies? Yeah, it's a great question. I think ultimately it's about where consumer patterns are changing. When we were at Meta we were seeing firsthand that people were not posting as much. They were seeking private communities. I was on the inside of Facebook groups, scaling out the entire product to billions of users. And you are no longer.
Analysis

The conversation highlights the importance of authenticity and relevance in brand partnerships, particularly in the context of AI-driven platforms. Insights from past experiences at Meta suggest a shift in consumer behavior towards private communities, indicating a potential evolution in social media engagement strategies.

Smart money should note the increasing relevance of AI in understanding consumer behavior and the potential decline of traditional social media engagement. The focus on private communities could signal a shift in advertising strategies, requiring brands to adapt to new consumer preferences for authenticity and connection.

13:45
PDT
Increased investor interest in drone companies.
Scarlet FoodDanny BurgerBloombergMiddle EastUkraineBloomberg DealsEvery WednesdayBloomberg TelevisionJennifer ZabasajaSouth AfricaPRIVATE
– Potential M&A activity in the drone sector.
– Ongoing geopolitical conflicts driving market dynamics.
– Valuations in the drone industry may rise.
– Focus on defense and technology sectors.
defense technologyM&A activitygeopolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
It is an early indicator of what we're going to see in the M&A market. Let's go to Scarlet Food, who's taking a closer look at drone companies. With ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, there is renewed investor appetite for new names in the space. Excellent reporting. I'm Danny Burger, and this is Bloomberg Deals. Every Wednesday at 5 p.m. London time. Only on Bloomberg Television. You're up to the minute economic news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Jennifer Zabasaja in Mokopane, South Africa. And this is Bloomberg.
Analysis

There is a renewed investor appetite for drone companies amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, indicating a potential shift in the M&A market. This interest could lead to increased valuations and activity in the drone sector as investors seek opportunities in defense and technology.

13:43
PDT
Mbappé's jersey could fetch around three million at auction.
Kylian MbappéOnNikeMichael JordanBloombergS&P 500Russell 2000World CupRandall WilliamsKylian MbappThe RussellPRIVATES&P 500
– Nike loses a key player as Mbappé signs with On.
– The sports memorabilia market is gaining traction as an asset class.
– The auction for Michael Jordan's jersey is currently at $10 million.
– Investors are increasingly viewing sports collectibles as serious investments.
sports memorabilia marketNike strategyconsumer sentimentinvestment trends
▸ Full transcript
To write the ship, I think soccer, of course, is one of them. When you lose a talent like Mbappé, it means you have some work to do. But also, running, training, basketball, all of these things need improvement. How much do you think an Mbappé World Cup jersey would go for? I mean, if Jordan gained three, not even a decisive game. 2018, 2020, or 2026. Yeah, that gets 10 million. Brunson gets one million for game one. I think an Mbappé jersey probably goes for three. Three million. All right. Randall, we'll pull our resources to see if we can make a bid for that. Here's somebody we can call. Randall Williams, who helps to lead our sports coverage here at Bloomberg. A closer look there at the latest news, and this is on holding a signing soccer superstar Kylian Mbappé. Take a look at the markets here, and of course, remain up on the day for the S&P 500 but down for a second straight week. The Russell 2000 closing out lower as well, concerns weighing on the consumer as yields continue to rise. Your two-year yield of nine basis points on the day and now higher for a fifth straight week. This is the close on Bloomberg.
Analysis

Kylian Mbappé's recent signing with On, a running shoe company, marks a significant shift as Nike loses a major talent. The potential value of Mbappé's World Cup jersey is estimated at around three million, indicating a growing market for sports memorabilia.

The auction market for sports collectibles is evolving, with iconic items like jerseys gaining value comparable to traditional art. This trend suggests that investors should consider sports memorabilia as a viable asset class, especially as the market matures and gains recognition.

13:41
PDT
Michael Jordan's game-worn jersey is listed for $10 million.
Michael JordanJupiterPharrell WilliamsSotheby'sJalen BrunsonKylian MbappeOnNikeErling HaalandCristiano RonaldoLionel MessiLamine Yamal
– The sports memorabilia market is becoming a recognized alternative asset class.
– Jupiter's auction house is gaining traction in the collectibles space.
– Kylian Mbappe's shift to On signifies a strategic move in sports branding.
– Nike is losing high-profile athletes but retains other superstars.
sports collectiblesalternative assetsbrand strategy
▸ Full transcript
them walking around here on set, you can only wear them in one place. So On believes that Kylian Mbappe is the key to cracking the code in terms of reaching consumers who want to wear it. But that was my first question, because I mean, they're primarily shoes. So I would think that more of the sales would come from apparel, wearing jerseys or other outfits that are somehow affiliated with his name and brand. It's also possible that they give him a trainer shoe or a running shoe or something to that extent that makes it available for everyday wear that looks similar to what he will wear on the pitch. Talk about Nike's push in international soccer. They obviously have a lot of names on their roster. Thierry Henry and a few others that I'm forgetting. Well, Thierry Henry actually just left to go down. He's going to be the director of Global Football. Oh my gosh, I missed that. Oh, sorry. Oops. So what else do they have? I mean, they've got the Norwegian guys. Yes, Erling Haaland. And once upon a time, I believe they still have Cristiano Ronaldo. Cristiano Ronaldo. So they still have superstars. If you look towards the future, you would probably take Lionel Messi and Lamine Yamal over any duo in Global Soccer. Why? Because their reach is that big. Yamal is already a winner. Messi is a legend. And I think Mbappe leaving Messi. Well, hang on. I mean, Yamal, I understand Messi. I mean, he's older than me. Are you sure about that? But Messi is going to be a huge name for years to come. Even if he stops playing for Inter-Miami, his jersey is going to continue to sell. And I think that can be a big part of the game.
Analysis

The collectibles market is evolving into a legitimate alternative asset class, with sports memorabilia, particularly Michael Jordan's game-worn jersey from the 1998 NBA Finals, now listed for a starting bid of $10 million. This shift indicates a growing recognition of sports collectibles as serious investments, paralleling trends seen in the contemporary art market.

The auction of Jordan's jersey reflects a broader trend where sports memorabilia is increasingly viewed as both collectible and investment-grade assets. As the market matures, items like jerseys and cars associated with sports legends are likely to appreciate significantly, suggesting that investors should consider diversifying into this emerging asset class.

13:39
PDT
Michael Jordan's jersey auction reflects the rising value of sports collectibles.
Michael JordanKylian MbappeOnNikeJupiterSotheby'sChristie'sKen GriffinNBAOKCaitlin DonovanRandall WilliamsPRIVATEFEDFUNDS
– Kylian Mbappe's equity deal with On indicates a trend towards athlete ownership in brands.
– The collectibles market is increasingly being treated with the same seriousness as traditional art.
– Jupiter is expanding its offerings to include diverse collectible categories.
– The market for sports memorabilia is evolving into a legitimate investment class.
sports collectiblesathlete equity dealsalternative asset classes
▸ Full transcript
We're taking these newer categories and giving them the same care and treatment that, say, the Sotheby's and Christie's of the world give to the contemporary art and more traditional categories. So, like you said, categories like natural history with dinosaurs, which we are also selling currently on our platform, with Swartz and Marbelia, with watches, with cars, these newer collectible categories. We put the care and the effort and the storytelling behind them so that we see them reach a really global audience. All right, Caitlin, I really appreciate having you here. You know, Ken Griffin's really into the dinosaur bone, so maybe you should call him up. Caitlin Donovan, she's the global head of sales over at Jupiter. Of course, that Jordan jersey, game three of the 1998 NBA finals, is now up for auction, with a bid already in at $10 million. There you have it. Now we're going to stick with sports apparel, but well, a little bit different. This is international football player Kylian Mbappe, who is now signing a deal with On, of course, the running shoe company, and basically leaving Nike. Randall Williams is Bloomberg's senior sports reporter. He joined us right now to talk a little bit more about this. This crossed the wire a little bit earlier, and it was kind of framed around that idea that On had signed Mbappe to this new deal here. And then a lot of people were saying, OK, well, what about Nike? Well, Nike is losing Mbappe. And I think the big thing is that Mbappe is going to get equity with On. And you think about the things you mentioned with On. On, of course, first made their big splash while running, and then signing Roger Federer. And now they're making their entryway into global football.
Analysis

The auction for Michael Jordan's game-worn jersey from the 1998 NBA Finals has opened with a starting bid of $10 million, highlighting the growing value of sports memorabilia as an alternative asset class. Additionally, Kylian Mbappe's new deal with On, which includes equity, signifies a shift in the sports endorsement landscape as he departs from Nike.

13:35
PDT
Sports collectibles are gaining recognition as a serious asset class.
Jalen BrunsonMichael JordanChristie'sSotheby'sJupiterPharrell WilliamsSouth AbyssinDXY
– Jalen Brunson's jersey sold for $1 million, indicating strong market interest.
– Michael Jordan's Game 3 jersey has a starting bid of $10 million.
– Emotional value complicates the valuation of sports memorabilia.
– Future appreciation of collectibles could mirror trends in the art market.
sports collectiblesalternative assets
▸ Full transcript
Who maybe just want a little bit more than Monet or Chagall or something on their wall. They want to have something that in their view is not just memorabilia; it is art to a certain extent. Of course, I mean, I think that sports collectibles are becoming, if not have become, an incredible turn into an asset class. If you think about the contemporary art market, which has those Christie's and Sotheby's one billion dollar sale weeks that we all know so well, you know, Basquiat in 1984, the same Basquiat that sold for $10,000 then went back at sold at Christie's, went back to South Abyssin in 2017 and sold for 10 million. You know, I mean, if you think about it, I do think that the sports collectibles industry and market is really following in the same suit, and one day we'll look back and laugh at the time when we didn't consider sports collectibles a serious asset class. But like with, for example, we talked about Jalen Brunson's game one. One million, I actually thought that seemed kind of low to me. But then I think, okay, that's coming back on the market at some point, particularly if this turns out to be a dynasty. Is that something where whoever owns that right now, at some point, I don't know, 10, 20 years later, we're talking 10 million or 15 or 20 million for that same jersey? Absolutely. I mean, in my mind, I think this jersey is going to sell for, you know, what I hope higher than the auction estimate. I think it's worth that. And I think that in 20 years, it will be worth more than that. Is it harder to value something like a jersey where it's not just what happened, but there's a certain sort of, I guess, emotion that's attached to it? Is it harder to measure something like that, the value of something like that, as opposed to a...
Analysis

The sports collectibles market is evolving into a legitimate asset class, with significant sales like Jalen Brunson's jersey fetching $1 million and Michael Jordan's Game 3 jersey from the 1998 NBA Finals starting at $10 million. This trend indicates a growing recognition of sports memorabilia as not just collectibles but also as valuable investments, paralleling the contemporary art market's trajectory.

Smart investors should note that the emotional value attached to sports memorabilia complicates valuation, potentially leading to significant appreciation over time. As the market matures, items once considered niche could see exponential growth in value, reflecting broader trends in alternative assets.

13:33
PDT
Michael Jordan's jersey auction starts at $10 million.
Michael JordanChicago BullsNBAJupiterPharrell WilliamsSotheby'sJalen BrunsonOKNew YorkThe Last Dance
– The jersey is linked to a pivotal game in the Bulls' dynasty.
– Collectibles are increasingly viewed as alternative investments.
– The auction reflects a growing market for sports memorabilia.
– Investors are shifting focus towards unique asset classes.
sports memorabiliaalternative investments
▸ Full transcript
The auction opened on Tuesday. Give me a sense here, because when I first saw it, I thought, OK, game three of the 98 finals against the Jazz. You know, when I think of a game-worn jersey, that's going to have a high value. Usually, I think it's going to be the decisive game that actually seals it. This was the game where the Bulls blew out the Jazz by 20-something points or whatever. It's an iconic game, but $10 million for that jersey? It's an iconic game. I mean, when you think about, you said that you are a Chicago boy. I am a New York girl, and yet I kind of think the Chicago Bulls and Michael Jordan, they kind of trump all of that, you know, if you will. This game was the turning point in this dynasty, which was different; this season was different than any other because everyone knew it was the end, you know, and Game 3 was the game that really solidified this finals. And so I feel like when you think about the 1998 NBA finals, you think about Game 3 being the turning point which basically brought it all home. Yeah, and of course, obviously the season immortalized in the documentary, The Last Dance. You're also selling one of Michael's, I say one of, one of Michael Jordan's Ferraris because he had many over the years. Give me a sense as to specifically which car this is and what you think that might actually fetch. That was a good point, one of, because he is an avid Ferrari collector. What is something that I learned recently, which I love, is that oftentimes Michael Jordan before a finals game would go out and buy himself a Ferrari before the finals. So I think, you know, you think about it, they went eight finals, six championships.
Analysis

The auction for Michael Jordan's game-worn jersey from the 1998 NBA Finals has opened with a starting bid of $10 million, highlighting the increasing value of sports memorabilia as an alternative asset class. This particular jersey is seen as iconic due to its association with a pivotal moment in the Bulls' dynasty, which adds to its collectible appeal.

Smart investors should note the growing trend of collectibles, particularly sports memorabilia, being recognized as legitimate investment opportunities. The significant starting bid reflects not only the nostalgia associated with Jordan but also the broader market shift towards alternative assets as traditional investment avenues face volatility.

13:31
PDT
Collectibles are becoming a legitimate alternative asset class.
JupiterPharrell WilliamsMichael JordanJalen BrunsonSotheby'sNYXNBAPRIVATE
– Michael Jordan's jersey has a starting bid of $10 million.
– Jalen Brunson's jersey sold for $1 million, setting a record for NYX collectibles.
– The sports memorabilia market is one of the fastest-growing segments.
– Investors are increasingly looking for diversification through alternative assets.
alternative investmentssports memorabiliamarket diversification
▸ Full transcript
The collectibles market has transformed into a legitimate alternative asset class, with sports memorabilia becoming one of the fastest-growing parts of that space. That's according to Jupiter, a digital auction house and marketplace founded by the singer-songwriter Pharrell Williams back in 2022. It is now listing a game-worn jersey from Michael Jordan, Game 3 of the NBA Finals of 1998, on the market, with a starting bid at $10 million. This comes after Sotheby's auctioned off Jalen Brunson's Game 1 jersey from this year's finals for $1 million back in July, a record for a NYX collectible. Here now for their take on the market is Jupiter's global head of sales.
Analysis

The collectibles market is evolving into a legitimate alternative asset class, with sports memorabilia rapidly gaining traction. A game-worn Michael Jordan jersey from the 1998 NBA Finals is now listed with a starting bid of $10 million, highlighting the increasing value of such items in the auction space.

Smart investors should note that the auction of high-profile sports memorabilia, like Jalen Brunson's jersey fetching $1 million, signals a growing appetite for alternative investments. This trend may indicate a shift in asset allocation strategies among collectors and investors seeking diversification beyond traditional markets.

13:26
PDT
Corporate treasurers are moving to short duration assets.
Andrew CisarowskiNina TrenemanBloomberg NewsClearwaterKevin WarshIranWall StreetFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– This shift follows a period of extending duration based on rate cut expectations.
– Geopolitical risks, particularly the Iran war, have influenced this change.
– The market is reacting to a more uncertain economic outlook.
– Investors are preparing for potential volatility in bond markets.
Fed policycorporate treasury strategygeopolitical risk
▸ Full transcript
Well, we just heard from Andrew Cisarowski about how the Fed's first rate hike in three years is forcing a rethink among investors on Wall Street, but it might be doing the same for corporate treasurers who are now shifting their company's portfolios to more short duration assets. That's according to new data from Clearwater, which tracks $1.6 trillion in holdings. Joining us right now is Nina Treneman. She's senior editor at Bloomberg News, and she writes a column for us that will be out this Sunday talking about just this. What are the duration already? I guess in the coming days probably, yes. We'll see it in the next data that Clearwater pulls for us. Well, give me a sense of what that data trend line had been, because I was under the impression that we had actually seen some corporate treasurer start extending duration. When did that flip, or when is that going to start to flip? For most of the year, we actually saw them do that until about June, July, under the expectation that there would be several rate cuts this year. And also, we had the comments from Kevin Warsh before, maybe he became Fed governor, that U.S. interest rates were actually too high. That changed in about June, July, when companies realized that the Iran war wasn't ending anytime soon and that it would have.
Analysis

The Fed's first rate hike in three years is prompting corporate treasurers to shift towards short duration assets, as indicated by new data from Clearwater tracking $1.6 trillion in holdings. This marks a significant change from earlier in the year when treasurers were extending duration based on expectations of rate cuts, a trend that reversed amid geopolitical uncertainties, particularly the ongoing Iran war.

Smart money should note that the shift to short duration reflects a broader concern about rising interest rates and geopolitical risks, which could lead to increased volatility in corporate bond markets. The decision to pivot may also indicate a cautious outlook on economic stability, suggesting that investors are bracing for potential downturns in growth and rising deficits.

13:22
PDT
Yield buyers are drawn to investment-grade corporates despite tight spreads.
Andrew CisarowskiMorgan Stanley Investment ManagementIG
– Relative value investors are waiting for better spread opportunities.
– Agency mortgage-backed securities are currently favored over corporates.
– Current mortgage rates are above 7%, impacting investor decisions.
– Spreads in agency mortgages are around 120-130 basis points.
fixed income strategyyield dynamicsrelative value investing
▸ Full transcript
What some investors out there who buy corporate bonds, IG corporates, they are yield buyers and not spread buyers. So I run a multi-sector strategic income fund and we're spread buyers. So when we see spreads are tight, we avoid those sectors, but not every investor is like us. Some just have a yield bogey. If you're an annuity buyer, you're an insurance company, you might see that 6% yield on an investment-grade corporate and say, 'Hey, this is attractive.' This is more that we have real yields in the three handle. That looks good and certainly looks much better than we've been at really on the real yield basis for quite a while, for a decade or two. Yeah. And so it makes sense for them to buy that, but I think the relative value investors look at it and say it doesn't make sense for us to be buying here. Spreads are in the top desk aisle. We'll wait for a better opportunity. Well, give me a sense. I mean, what kind of spread would you like to look at where you would actually be able to sort of meaningfully increase your allocation? So I think a more attractive place today is in the agency mortgage-backed market. So that's kind of the liquid high-quality portion that we like to keep in the base of our portfolio when spreads in IG corporates are tight. And you think about mortgage rates, mortgage rates are in the 7% now, a little above 7%. Agency mortgages, you can get in the low sixes yield spreads in the kind of 120, 130. So I need IG corporates to kind of widen out to that area in order to start looking at them. And until they do, we kind of hide out agency mortgage backs and then non-agency you can go out the risk spectrum there as well.
Analysis

Investors in investment-grade corporate bonds are primarily yield buyers, attracted by the current yields despite tight spreads. However, relative value investors are cautious, preferring to wait for more favorable spread conditions before increasing allocations to corporates.

The agency mortgage-backed market is currently seen as more attractive, with yields in the low sixes compared to higher mortgage rates. This suggests a potential shift in investor focus towards agency mortgages until corporate spreads widen, indicating a strategic repositioning in the fixed-income landscape.

13:20
PDT
Bond prices are closely tied to oil prices.
IranTreasurycorporate bondsCL=F
– Uncertainty in the Middle East is impacting bond investor confidence.
– Treasury and corporate bond issuances are competing for the same capital.
– Increased corporate debt may lead to higher overall capital costs.
– Investors may shift from Treasuries to corporate bonds for better yields.
bond market dynamicscorporate debt issuanceoil price correlation
▸ Full transcript
Taking long duration in the short term is just a bet on oil. I mean, up until today, bond prices were going up and down with oil. And then today we're finally seeing oil go lower, but there's been almost a one-to-one correlation between bonds going higher, lower, and what happened in oil that day. And at some point, again, at some point that will break, but bond investors just don't have clarity on the war in Iran. And so it's tough to know. You don't want to really go over your exceed and extend duration until you have a little more certainty there. I do want to ask you about the interplay right now with Treasury issuance and corporate bond issuance. So you sort of alluded to it and this idea of whether these two sort of fire hoses of issuance can actually coexist together or are they actually competing against each other in a way that somebody's going to lose. Yeah. Look, I think they're competing for the same capital and because of that I think the more hyper-scalar the more corporations you get, the more that some of those investors who would buy that also might have bought Treasuries. And so I think that they're pulling up the cost of capital and the more debt that's issued, whether it's corporates, whether it's Treasuries, whether it's mortgages, that ultimately all has to be parked somewhere. And everyone's looking at the relative value. So if your opportunity cost of owning Treasuries all of a sudden, if you can get data center deals at 200 over 300 over, that's some of those people who might have bought Treasuries. If you're a core bond investor, you're going to move out that risk spectrum a little, and then you're selling Treasuries to fund that. So I think it definitely, they're fighting for the same.
Analysis

Bond prices have shown a strong correlation with oil prices, but uncertainty surrounding the war in Iran is causing hesitation among bond investors regarding long-duration investments. The competition between Treasury and corporate bond issuances is intensifying, as both are vying for the same capital, potentially raising the cost of capital for both sectors.

Smart money should note that as corporate debt issuance increases, it may lead to a shift in investor preferences, pulling capital away from Treasuries. This dynamic could create opportunities in corporate bonds, but also raises questions about the sustainability of current yield levels in the face of rising debt across both sectors.

13:17
PDT
U.S. and European fiscal deficits are driving higher bond yields.
U.S.EuropeTreasuryMorgan Stanley Investment ManagementUnited States TreasuryDXY
– Corporate debt issuance is contributing to market liquidity pressures.
– Current economic strength masks underlying sustainability concerns.
– Interest costs could escalate significantly with rising yields.
– Bond investors are increasingly wary of long-term debt sustainability.
fiscal policybond market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
And part of that's just because it's not just our deficits that are massive, but the kind of age of austerity in Europe is over and you're seeing kind of massive deficits there, more defense spending. And then you kind of add the icing on the cake, which is that you have all this hyper-scaler debt and corporate issuance that's coming at the same time, too. So I think it's the market basically putting a more and more kind of term premium on things and also more and more liquidity premium. And look, there's a lot of capital that is fighting for these bond investors. So that's going to require higher yields. Well, I mean, what do you think the yields would be if the fiscal outlook was maybe a little bit more positive? Yeah. I mean, look, the challenge is that this is a strong economy. We have six-handle nominal growth, and we're running two-plus trillion-dollar deficits. And as you mentioned, if we have 40 trillion of debt outstanding, the difference between a 4 percent, if the weighted average cost of capital for the United States Treasury is 4%, or if it goes up to 5%, all of a sudden that 100 basis points difference on, you know, you're talking hundreds of billions of dollars extra in kind of interest costs that just compile onto the deficit. So where would it be? I think that the challenge is that this is happening in a good time and what's going to happen if the economy rolls over, unemployment goes higher, deficits are going to go up even more. So it's not sustainable, and bond investors, bond vigilantes have been saying it's not sustainable for years. I don't think that means we're going to have 10% Treasury yields or anything like that.
Analysis

The market is facing increased term and liquidity premiums due to massive fiscal deficits in both the U.S. and Europe, alongside significant corporate debt issuance. This situation is exacerbated by a strong economy with high nominal growth, leading to concerns about sustainability as interest costs rise with increasing debt levels.

Smart money should note that while current yields are manageable, the potential for rising unemployment and further deficits could create a precarious situation for bond investors. The ongoing debate about the sustainability of U.S. debt levels and the implications for Treasury yields is critical as market conditions evolve.

13:15
PDT
Federal debt exceeds $40 trillion, raising psychological concerns.
U.S. TreasuryMorgan Stanley Investment ManagementAndrew CisarowskiWall StreetFEDFUNDS
– Strong demand for 10 and 30-year treasuries noted, highest auction yield since 2007.
– $625 billion net inflow into U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs this year.
– Fiscal year deficit nearing $2 trillion with spending outpacing revenue.
– Rising interest expenses and a stable 10-year yield at 5% present risk considerations.
fiscal policybond market dynamicsdebt sustainability
▸ Full transcript
But is there a point where some folks say enough? Federal debt is now top $40 trillion, a psychological threshold that is Wall Street talking, but so far hasn't shaken their spending. Solid appetite last week for 10 and 30-year treasuries stirred by the highest auction yield since 07. And for the retail set, a net $625 billion pouring into U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs this year through August, the most in at least 15 years. Still, through August, the government had spent about $6.8 trillion but only collected $4.8, leaving the 11th month fiscal year deficit of nearly $2 trillion. And that, combined with rising interest expenses and a 10-year yield that looks set to hold at 5 percent, means that investors happy for the once-in-a-generation income opportunity will still have to confront a very Hamiltonian question. How much yield can you continue to extract from the U.S. before that premium gets a little bit too extravagant to stomach? Andrew Cisarowski, strategic income portfolio manager over at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. And that is actually where I do want to start with you, Andrew. The idea as to what the market is viewing right now with that fiscal backdrop, with that monetary policy backdrop, and the idea that there is opportunity, but when does that opportunity start to look more like risk? Yeah, as you mentioned, Romain, look, we've seen a dramatic backup in yields this year and it's the front end of the yield curve has risen 100.
Analysis

Federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, raising concerns on Wall Street, yet investor appetite remains strong, with significant inflows into U.S. bond mutual funds and ETFs. The fiscal deficit continues to widen, with government spending outpacing revenue, leading to questions about the sustainability of current yields amidst rising interest expenses.

The market is currently experiencing a dramatic rise in yields, particularly at the front end of the yield curve, which has increased by 100 basis points this year. Investors must weigh the attractive income opportunities against the potential risks posed by escalating debt levels and interest rates, reminiscent of historical fiscal challenges.

13:13
PDT
CrowdStrike shows resilience amid AI concerns.
CrowdStrikeNetflixGoldman SachsLenardAlexander HamiltonBank of New YorkBank of North AmericaAIClarity ActLiberation DayTreasury SecretaryNew YorkFEDFUNDSGC=F
– Netflix struggles with original content, impacting stock performance.
– Goldman Sachs has its worst week since April 2025.
– Homebuilders and REITs, including Lenard, are facing downward pressure.
– Historical context highlights the importance of creditworthiness established by Hamilton.
AI impact on cybersecurityStreaming content performanceReal estate market trendsHistorical financial context
▸ Full transcript
As a little more clarity comes out of the federal government after the failure of the Clarity Act, you flip up the board and take a look at some of the individual movers on the week. CrowdStrike is actually having its best week since May, despite the shares being down about 3% on the day, with fears around AI helping to give a boost to a lot of those cybersecurity names. Meanwhile, Netflix is down for the fourth straight day, actually having its worst week going back to October of 2025. Goldman Sachs is down a percent on the day, but for the week, it's having its worst week since Liberation Day back in April of 2025. Lenard, in fact, most of the home builders and most of the REITs are lower, with Lenard down for a fourth straight week, including a 4% drop on the day. This brings us to our top story: on this day in history, 237 years ago in 1789, Alexander Hamilton, who had been sworn in just days earlier as the first U.S. Treasury Secretary, confronted a government that didn't have enough cash to meet basic expenses. Hamilton arranged a series of advances from the Bank of New York and the Bank of North America, about $192,000, to help pay the salaries of the President, Congress, and other officers of the newly formed government. Those advances would be fully repaid 10 months later, an achievement that formally established the credit and creditworthiness of the United States of America. In his first report explaining the nation's new public debt regime.
Analysis

CrowdStrike experienced its best week since May despite a 3% decline today, driven by fears around AI boosting cybersecurity stocks. Conversely, Netflix faced its worst week since October 2025, down for the fourth consecutive day, raising concerns about its lack of breakout original series as analysts issue bearish ratings.

13:11
PDT
Dow Jones down 100 points; S&P slightly up but still negative for the week.
Dow JonesS&P 500NASDAQ CompositeNASDAQ 100Russell 2000BitcoinCircle Internet GroupSandiskNvidiaNetflixWells FargoOIGUS
– Bitcoin surpasses $80,000, up 37% since June 30.
– Utilities and materials sectors declined; technology and industrials gained.
– Netflix shares down 4.7% amid analyst downgrade.
– Orion 180 Insurance Group IPO fell 2.8% despite upsized offering.
cryptocurrency investmentsector performance divergenceinflation impactIPO market trends
▸ Full transcript
What's the coolest thing you can grow with money? What do you actually do? Is this just for rich people? How do you know what to choose? We get a lot of smart people together. We're analyzing all of the data. We're doing research, and we're pulling all that together to think about what would be the best investment today that will make money in the future. Invest like the future's watching. We've touched on everything that we carry around: the economy, media and information, markets, trade, and geopolitics. This is the close. Welcome back to the close. We got the closing bells here on this triple witching Friday. Some of the stocks did manage to push into the green on the back of pretty relentless.
Analysis

The markets closed lower on a triple witching Friday, with the Dow Jones down about 100 points and the S&P slightly up but still finishing in the red for the week. Notably, Bitcoin surged past $80,000, reflecting a 37% increase since June 30, which positively impacted cryptocurrency-linked stocks despite regulatory uncertainties.

Smart money should note the significant divergence in sector performance, with utilities and materials declining while technology and industrials gained. The rise in Bitcoin and the SEC's approval of digital securities trading could signal a shift in investment strategies, potentially reducing reliance on traditional exchanges.

13:08
PDT
Knicks ticket prices increased by 30-40%, now averaging 12% higher than last year.
New York KnicksJimmy DolanStubHubTicketmasterClara PellerThe New York KnickerbockersHuntington BeachNew York
– Inflationary pressures are affecting consumer spending in entertainment.
– Resale ticket prices exceed $1,000, indicating high demand.
– Rising prices may lead to changes in consumer behavior and spending patterns.
– The situation raises questions about pricing strategies in a post-championship context.
inflationconsumer spendingentertainment pricing
▸ Full transcript
Well, rest in peace, Clara Peller, of course, the wears to be flady, but speaking of inflation, I just have to get to this. The New York Knickerbockers are about to start their season, coming off of, of course, that championship season, and apparently Jimmy Dolan put up some prices for single seats, and they were significantly higher than what they were at last year. In some cases, 30-40%, they actually had to shut down for a while because apparently they're saying, well, that was an error. I'm not, I don't know if it was, but they're saying it was an error, and they're going to reset, and now saying that when they start reselling tickets again, the price will be on average 12% higher than what it was last year. Those resale websites though, like StubHub, over $1,000. I mean, somebody of my friends that I wanted to watch some of these games, but we'd have to go to places like, ironically, Tacombie, would you brought us a Brieus for really? Well, it wasn't just the resale, I mean, this was Ticketmaster. This was first sale just to be clear. And it's raising a lot of questions as to like, you know, I mean, what kind of premium do you put on a championship and how much are the fans willing to take? This is the world we live in, guys. Okay, so basically smaller burgers and higher prices for my nosebleed Knicks tickets. You know, we had one server. It's not good. At a Jenner in Huntington Beach. This work, let me hear it. You know what he said, he found out we were from New York. He's crossing his arms. We found out we were from New York, he said, Knicks in five. Knicks in five. Okay, there you go. Let me ask Carol, ordered the Escargot in champagne. There was no Escargot in no champagne. But you looked. I did look. You know what? You know what though? It was Carol's anniversary.
Analysis

The New York Knicks have raised ticket prices significantly, with some seats seeing increases of 30-40%, although they later claimed it was an error and will reset prices to an average of 12% higher than last year. This reflects broader inflationary pressures impacting consumer spending and pricing strategies across various sectors.

Smart money should note the implications of rising ticket prices on consumer behavior and discretionary spending, particularly in the entertainment sector. The situation highlights the ongoing tension between inflation and consumer willingness to pay, which could affect revenue projections for companies reliant on consumer spending.

13:06
PDT
Orion 180 Insurance Group's IPO raised $240 million but shares fell 2.8%.
Orion 180 Insurance GroupU.S. TreasuryFederal Reserverestaurantsbeef pricesIPOOIGUSCEOInsurance GroupFEDFUNDS
– The two-year Treasury yield rose nine basis points, marking five consecutive weeks of increases.
– The 10-year yield remains above 5%, indicating a sustained upward trend.
– Rising beef prices are leading restaurants to modify their menus, potentially impacting consumer behavior.
– Shrinkflation discussions are resurfacing as a response to rising costs.
IPO performanceTreasury yieldsinflationary pressuresconsumer behavior
▸ Full transcript
And finally, checking in on the IPO today, OIGUS Orion 180 Insurance Group. We actually just had the CEO on the program today. Shares bounced around a little bit when they did start trading, but did fall 2.8%. They raised $240 million. The IPO was upsized, but fell ever so slightly in today's trade. Let's take a quick look at yield, because the world trajectory continues pretty much a pace as to what everybody has been expecting. And that is effectively this idea of being a higher for longer. Your two-year yield today, if you can believe it, is up nine basis points. In fact, for five straight weeks now, we've seen that two-year yield rise. We're at four, seven, five and change. Your 10-year yield remains camped out above 5%, up about seven basis points on the day. The longer end of the curve also getting sold, your 30-year yield right now at five, three, three. You're talking from 10 down to 30. You're basically at 5% in the two-year now starting to approach that level as well. Yeah, right. And it just feels like we're still headed higher, at least based on Fed expectations. Hey, guys, well, speaking of that, as U.S. Treasury rates, we continue to see them climb. The other thing that's been climbing, and we talk about this a lot, is beef prices. Restaurants, as a result, are re-engineering their menus due to those surging beef prices. So what they're doing is either smaller portions or they're doing less expensive cuts. Didn't we have this conversation a few years ago, the whole idea of shrinkflation? Roman, I know you reported a ton on this.
Analysis

Orion 180 Insurance Group's IPO raised $240 million but saw shares fall 2.8% on the first day of trading. U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise, with the two-year yield up nine basis points, indicating a persistent expectation of higher rates for an extended period.

Smart money should note the ongoing rise in U.S. Treasury yields, which could signal tightening financial conditions and impact equity valuations. Additionally, the rising beef prices are prompting restaurants to adjust their menus, reflecting broader inflationary pressures that could affect consumer spending patterns.

13:04
PDT
Circle Internet Group rose 7.8%.
Circle Internet GroupSandiskNvidiaWells FargoNetflixAICFOClarity ActSteven CahallS&PNASDAQ 100NVDA
– Sandisk increased nearly 11%, benefiting from AI demand.
– Netflix shares declined 4.7% following a downgrade.
– Wells Fargo cites need for more original content at Netflix.
– Sandisk's year-to-date performance exceeds 630%.
AI infrastructure demandStreaming industry challenges
▸ Full transcript
Let me go there, about 8.30, 9%, forgive me, I had to update my numbers. And then if you go over to Circle Internet Group, that too was up 7.8%. So yeah, despite the Clarity Act and disappointment earlier in the week, we did see them finishing Friday higher. And then I'm just gonna go over to Sandisk, man. This one just keeps pushing higher and higher. Number two, in the S&P and NASDAQ 100, up almost 11%. Benzinga noting the rise, pointing to how AI infrastructure continues to consume more memory, tightening supply. Also mentioned recent comments from Nvidia's CFO citing extreme pricing conditions and memory stock is up about, I don't know, more than 630% year to date. Alright, some of the gainers, let's go to some of the decliners. I want to start with shares in Netflix down 4.7% today. Romain, what was the last big original series you watched on Netflix? Oh gosh, man. You're about to date me right now. I mean, we're going back to House of Cards days. Right. Yeah, I mean they might have invented the category. But according to a Wells Fargo analyst, Steven Cahall, they got some explaining to do because they've, quote, lacked big original series. And it's showing, and that breakout hits are necessary for the stock to work again. It's actually down. Gosh, I just had this up on my terminal. About 47% going back to 2025. So now, downgrade noticeable. It's the first bearish analyst rating on Netflix in months. The majority of analysts, though, still recommending to buy the stock. Alright, shares of Netflix down on the day.
Analysis

Circle Internet Group and Sandisk saw significant gains, with Circle up 7.8% and Sandisk rising almost 11%, driven by AI infrastructure demand for memory. Conversely, Netflix shares fell 4.7% due to a downgrade from Wells Fargo, highlighting a lack of compelling original content as a critical issue for the stock's performance.

13:01
PDT
Dow down 0.2%, S&P 500 slightly up but weekly losses persist.
Dow Jones Industrial AverageS&P 500NASDAQ CompositeNASDAQ 100Russell 2000BitcoinSECIMAPUnited StatesNASDAQ 100S&P 500
– NASDAQ indices show strength, contrasting with Russell 2000's decline.
– Technology sector outperformed, while utilities and materials lagged.
– Bitcoin's rise signals renewed interest in cryptocurrency-linked stocks.
– SEC's approval of digital securities could impact trading dynamics.
market volatilitycryptocurrency trendssector performance
▸ Full transcript
The recent begins triple witching. Dow Jones Industrial Average down about 100 points or two-tenths of a percent. It's going to close lower on the week by about 2% here. The S&P is going to add about 12 points or about two-tenths of a percent on the day. Still going to finish in the red on the week. The NASDAQ Composite and NASDAQ 100 higher on the day and higher on the week. But take a look at the Russell 2000 dropping about 14 points or about a half a percent on the day down 1.5% for the last five days. All right, back to the big cap side, go. And even though we saw the S&P finishing up just slightly in the green just, you've got most names in the index lower today, 349 names in the S&P 500 losing ground, 153 to the upside, one unchanged. Looking at that IMAP function for the sectors within the S&P 500, seeing utilities, the biggest decliner today down around 1.4% followed by materials also down about 1%, but on the flip side of that, technology up about 8 tenths of a percent followed by industrials up around a half of a percent. All right guys, let's go to the individual great gainers and we did see actually a lot of green in that pie. So let's get to it Bitcoin topping $80,000 today. It's now up about 37% since June 30th. And so no surprise to see a bunch of cryptocurrency-linked stocks gaining in today's session. The other fundamental thing at play is the SEC greenlit digital versions of securities to start trading in the United States, which makes me wonder do we still need exchanges eventually but.
Analysis

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down about 100 points, or 0.2%, marking a 2% decline for the week, while the S&P 500 added 12 points but still finished in the red for the week. The NASDAQ composite and NASDAQ 100 were higher on the day and week, contrasting with the Russell 2000, which dropped 0.5% today and 1.5% over the last five days.

Despite the overall market weakness, technology stocks showed resilience, with the sector up 0.8%. Additionally, Bitcoin surged past $80,000, reflecting a 37% increase since June 30, driven by the SEC's approval of digital securities trading, which could reshape the trading landscape significantly.

12:58
PDT
Investors should rebalance portfolios based on risk tolerance.
InvestNetDan AdoriaBloombergIRRTWRUSChief Investment OfficerRemain BosticJess MintonTim StenevichPRIVATEDXY
– Market volatility is increasing, particularly on triple witching days.
– Discipline in investment strategies is crucial to avoid underperformance.
– Equity returns have been strong despite ongoing market headwinds.
– Concerns about future rate hikes are influencing investor sentiment.
market volatilityportfolio rebalancingrisk management
▸ Full transcript
Than anything. I mean, at the end of the day, we've been talking about the headwinds that markets face for a long time, and yet we've had several years of great equity returns. I think investors should be doing the rebalancing back to their risk tolerance targets. I mean, it shouldn't be based on what's my prediction of what's going to happen in the market. It should be based on how much risk can I afford to take. How long of the time frame do I have for that money to sit there? And I think not trying to move in line and not trying to trade on market expectations for the average investor. It's the difference in the IRR and the TWR rate. The dollar rate of return you actually get and the return that the market delivers. Oftentimes that IRR, that return you receive, is lower than what the market delivers because of your own kind of moving in and out and trying to trade. And I think the best to be disciplined. Dan Adoria, Chief Investment Officer over at InvestNet, cutting us down to the closing bells as we see a spike in volume, a spike in volatility, and a spike in the green here on this triple witching Friday. A breakdown of all of today's market action starts right now. The closing bell, Bloomberg's comprehensive cross-platform coverage of the US market close, starts right now. And right now we are two minutes away from the end of the trading day. Remain Bostic here with Jess Minton, taking you through to that closing bell. It's a global SonalCab. Carol, Massar, and Tim Stenevich. Join us fresh from their surfing vacation.
Analysis

Markets are experiencing volatility as investors are urged to rebalance their portfolios according to risk tolerance rather than market predictions. The discussion highlights the importance of maintaining discipline in investment strategies to avoid underperformance compared to market returns.

Smart money should note that despite recent headwinds, equity returns have remained strong, suggesting a potential disconnect between market sentiment and actual performance. The emphasis on rebalancing and risk management indicates a shift towards a more cautious investment approach as uncertainty looms over future rate hikes.

12:56
PDT
Incremental moves into U.S. equities observed.
FedU.S. equitieshyperscalersFEDFUNDS
– Investors are concerned about year-end market conditions.
– Further rate hikes are anticipated.
– Challenges in diversifying away from hyperscaler stocks.
– Tracking error becomes a significant concern for advisors.
market headwindsFed policy
▸ Full transcript
And by the way, knowing that international equities had a fantastic 2025 and are a great diversification tool. But yeah, there had been moves into U.S. equities for a while that, again, calls for its incremental over when you spread it out across the many different investors, which means some investors are probably pulled out of international altogether and others just kind of edged up a little bit. Overall, you get sort of an incremental increase. But I think as it relates to kind of, you know, taking the winners, if we're thinking about the hyperscalers, if we're thinking about where, you know, equities are super concentrated, it's almost difficult, right, to make that decision as an advisor for a client. Because to the extent that you move too far away from those hyperscalers, unfortunately, you're taking significant tracking error at that point. And you know, the client's looking at a benchmark that's focused there. And if you underperform it, it's really visible. What's the top question that you're getting from clients now that we're past this last Fed decision? You know, I don't know. I don't think anyone was surprised by the Fed decision. So that's certainly not something that's sort of coming up. I think everybody wants to know what's the end of the year going to look like. Do we have to be concerned about growing headwinds to the market, right? We see some mounting concerns here now. I mean, certainly we're going to get another rate hike, appears at least one probably to, you know, not necessarily in the year but two in short order and so, you know, what does that do to kind of.
Analysis

U.S. equities are experiencing incremental shifts as investors reassess their allocations, particularly in light of the recent Fed decision. Concerns are mounting about potential headwinds to the market, with expectations of further rate hikes looming on the horizon.

Smart money should note the difficulty in diversifying away from hyperscaler stocks, as underperformance against benchmarks becomes highly visible. The focus on year-end market conditions suggests a cautious approach as investors weigh the implications of rising rates and their impact on equity performance.

12:54
PDT
Rising Treasury yields may prompt a portfolio rebalance towards fixed income.
Federal ReserveTreasuryequitiesfixed incomeprivate creditFEDFUNDS
– Investors have experienced a long period of low yields, making current rates more appealing.
– Higher fixed income yields could lead to better overall returns over time.
– The shift in investment strategy may impact equity market dynamics.
– Investors should reassess their asset allocations in light of the new normal in rates.
fixed income investmentportfolio rebalancingTreasury yieldsFed policy impact
▸ Full transcript
The market has been doing what it's been doing over the last several years; maybe now it's a 70-30, maybe it's 75-25, and it needs a rebalance. I feel like that question now becomes even more pertinent given the rise that we've seen in rates in the secondary market. Of course, the Fed rate hike yesterday and the belief that this is kind of the new normal, whether you like it or not. So if you are an investor and you're looking at 5% yields in the Treasury space or you're looking in private credit and something that's maybe even potentially commensurate with what you can get in equities, do we see more of a rebalance over the next few months? Yeah, it would make sense, right? I mean, of course, if you've been sitting in fixed income, unfortunately, you know, rates going up means prices down, and you're kind of not experiencing gains there. But if you're moving money into fixed income, you know, rebalancing into fixed income, you now have more yields. We went through a long period where fixed income really wasn't yielding anything at all, and a lot of investors have experienced much of their investment life horizon in a period like that. So rising rates do have some beneficial impact. The 40% of that portfolio that I'm putting into fixed income by investing now at higher rates should expect over time to probably get a better overall return based on that yield. So yes, a long-winded way of saying you're right on point. It's another reason to make sure that you're rebalanced appropriately.
Analysis

The discussion highlights a potential shift in investment strategies as rising Treasury yields prompt a reevaluation of asset allocations, particularly towards fixed income. Investors may find better returns in fixed income now that yields have increased, suggesting a necessary rebalance in portfolios that have been heavily weighted towards equities.

Smart money should note that the current environment of higher rates could lead to a significant shift in investor behavior, moving capital from equities to fixed income as yields become more attractive. This reallocation could impact equity valuations and market dynamics as investors seek safer, yield-generating assets.

12:52
PDT
S&P 500 set for second week of losses.
S&P 500BitcoinBrent CrudeScaleDana DoriaInvestNetETFAIIPOChief Investment OfficerS&P 500PRIVATEFEDFUNDS
– Bitcoin trust ETF up 6%, best day since March.
– Brent Crude down 1.5% at $103/barrel.
– AI tech stocks showing modest bids.
– AI cloud firm Scale files for IPO, targeting $3 billion.
market volatilityAI sector investmentcrypto market trendsoil price fluctuations
▸ Full transcript
At least for the S&P 500, it's the third straight week, just for the Dow industrials. Right, and the S&P is only up around a tenth of a percent today, still on track for its second week of loss. Looking over at the Bitcoin trust ETF, it's up around 6%, on pace for its best day since March 4th after Bitcoin crossed that $8,000 threshold. And of course, the 10-year treasury yield is hovering around 5% right now; we'll see if that can hold because it's broken below that each time it's happened over the last week. And then, of course, Brent Crude is trading around $103 a barrel, down around one and a half percent today. Romain, we talk about some of the big movers on an individual basis out of the S&P 500. We did see a bid coming back into some of those tech names, particularly in the AI space, at least for today, with some modest bids coming into those names. I should point out, we have another name added to the public markets as Bloomberg is now reporting that AI cloud firm Scale is making its IPO filing, which was the redhead that crossed the wire just a little while ago here. Bloomberg had been reporting last month that the company was seeking to raise as much as $3 billion. Dana Doria joins us right now, Chief Investment Officer over at InvestNet. Talk a little bit more about some of the market moves, which are a lot more disjointed, I think, this week and last week compared to what we had seen over the few months heading into this summer. Give me a sense now that the Fed rate hike is sort of done, although we'll get to that in a second. But at least some of the uncertainty around it is done. Give me a sense here as to how in ve...
Analysis

The S&P 500 is on track for its second consecutive weekly loss, while the Bitcoin trust ETF is experiencing a significant uptick, up around 6% as Bitcoin crosses the $8,000 threshold. Additionally, Brent Crude is trading down approximately 1.5% at $103 a barrel, indicating mixed signals across different asset classes.

Smart money should note the disjointed market movements, particularly in the tech sector, where AI stocks are seeing modest bids. The recent IPO filing of AI cloud firm Scale, seeking to raise up to $3 billion, suggests continued investor interest in AI despite broader market uncertainties.

12:49
PDT
Cryptocurrencies are showing extreme volatility.
BloombergAIPRIVATEDXY
– AI investments continue to attract significant funding.
– Bloomberg is promoting transparent equity indices.
– Traditional opinion-based indices may become obsolete.
– Investors should adapt strategies to new market dynamics.
cryptocurrency volatilityAI investment trendstransparent equity indices
▸ Full transcript
The future of money to others. We see cryptos' trillion-dollar swings. The end of jobs. Or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. Equity indices built on opinions. That's the old way. The new way is Bloomberg equity indices built using transparent rules-based methodology.
Analysis

Cryptocurrencies are experiencing significant volatility, with trillion-dollar swings highlighting the ongoing hype surrounding AI investments. Bloomberg emphasizes a shift towards transparent, rules-based equity indices, moving away from traditional opinion-based methods.

Smart investors should note the potential for disruption in traditional equity indices as transparency becomes a key differentiator. The focus on AI and crypto could reshape investment strategies, suggesting a need for adaptive approaches in portfolio management.

12:47
PDT
Netflix shares are down significantly after a Wells Fargo downgrade.
NetflixWells FargoStephen CahalBloombergYouTubeCIODana Doria
– Wells Fargo set a new price target of $57 for Netflix.
– This is the first sell rating for Netflix in months.
– Concerns are rising over Netflix's spending discipline and content strategy.
– Increased competition from platforms like YouTube is impacting Netflix's market position.
streaming competitioncontent spendinginvestor sentiment
▸ Full transcript
Melinda with our stock in the hour and that, Netflix is setting up for its worst weekly drop since October of last year. Meanwhile, stocks are setting up for a second straight week of declines. We're going to march you to those closing bells with Dana Doria, CIO over at Investnet.
Analysis

Netflix shares are poised for their worst weekly drop since October of last year, following a downgrade from Wells Fargo, which set a price target of $57. This marks the first sell rating on Wall Street for Netflix in months, indicating growing concerns about the company's spending discipline and content strategy amidst increasing competition.

Smart money should note that Netflix's struggle to maintain subscriber engagement and manage costs could signal a broader trend in the streaming industry, where content quality and viewer retention are becoming critical. The downgrade reflects a shift in investor sentiment, suggesting that even established players like Netflix are not immune to market pressures and changing consumer preferences.

12:45
PDT
Netflix shares fell after a Wells Fargo downgrade.
NetflixWells FargoYouTubeHBOTVTed SarandosUnited States
– This is the first sell rating for Netflix in months.
– The company is focusing on cost discipline amid high content expenses.
– YouTube is emerging as a significant competitor for viewer attention.
– Subscriber retention may be at risk if content quality declines.
streaming competitioncost managementcontent spending
▸ Full transcript
They do. And I know it sort of led to a lot of growth in the company in terms of viewership and subscribers, but the guy now is basically doing what Ted Sarandos used to do in terms of actually really cutting those checks. He's made it clear that he wants to be a little bit more disciplined in cost. So, I mean, how do you do that unless you think you can sort of shortchange some of these Hollywood directors and producers? And that's the question here as to how they're going to be able to think about the spending, thinking about all the money that they're putting into, especially when you think about original content. To your point, it is quite expensive. But also the company is trying to figure out how they can stay relevant. I mean, I know that I still use Netflix. A lot of people still use Netflix. Well, everybody has it. Everyone has it. Do you like it though? I mean, that's the thing. That's the question. Look, I've had a subscription for God knows how many years. I can't even tell you the last time I actually just checked my credit card statement. Turn it on. No, I've turned it on. About saying the last time I checked my credit card statement to actually even look at it. I don't even know what they're charging me. They could be charging me 50 bucks a month for all I know. And that's the power of it. No, it's all right. That's fair. But at some point, if you're not watching it, at some point you'd say, you know, maybe I should take a closer look at this. Absolutely. Well, I guess. Because I already have, you got everything else, right? Right. HBO Max. Paramount. I would say what keeps me coming back to Netflix is I'm a huge Seinfeld fan. Oh. And so they re-upped that licensing agreement for that. That makes a difference. So really, that's the main one that I'm watching all the time. Talk to us about YouTube. Is this a new competitor now to Netflix? And that was interesting. For attention, yes. So actually when you think about the TV share in the United States, YouTube actually has about 14 percent of the...
Analysis

Netflix shares dropped after Wells Fargo issued a downgrade, marking the first sell rating in months. The company is under pressure to manage costs while maintaining relevance in a competitive streaming landscape, raising concerns about its spending on original content.

Smart money should note that Netflix's struggle to balance cost discipline with content quality could impact subscriber retention. Additionally, the rise of competitors like YouTube, which holds a significant share of TV viewership, may further challenge Netflix's market position.

12:43
PDT
Netflix shares fell 4% after Wells Fargo downgrade.
NetflixWells FargoStephen CahalBloombergDCBloomberg CryptoTrust BloombergNorma LindaWall StreetPRIVATE
– First sell rating on Netflix in months.
– New price target set at $57, the lowest on Wall Street.
– Stock has lost over 20% year-to-date.
– Market sentiment is shifting regarding Netflix's growth prospects.
streaming industry challengesinvestor sentimentmarket volatility
▸ Full transcript
A lot of joy. Come to the world of decentralized finance. Bloomberg is covering all things crypto: the people, the transactions, and the technology. Bloomberg Crypto, Tuesdays only on Bloomberg. Next week, leaders from the world's two largest economies will come together in Washington, DC, with geopolitical stability and the future of global trade on the line. If we talk to his presidency about a lot of different and explore than anything else would be great. Trust Bloomberg to go beyond the headlines with on-the-ground reporting, expert analysis, and real-time market reaction, leading up to the summit on September 24th. Special coverage next week, right here on Bloomberg. Netflix shares lowered a day with the streaming giant receiving its first sell rating in months, Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Cahal chopping its price target to $57. Now the street low, Bloomberg's Norma Linda joins us now looking at these stocks down about 4% today and even on a year-to-date basis, it's lost more than 20% of its value. Walk us through this latest downgrade. Yes, so as you mentioned, this is the first sell equivalent rating that we've seen on Wall Street in months, all the way dating back to, I would like to say, February. Now essentially what Wall Street is saying, or Wells Fargo rather, in particular.
Analysis

Netflix shares dropped approximately 4% following a downgrade from Wells Fargo, marking the first sell rating in months with a new price target set at $57. This downgrade reflects a significant shift in sentiment on Wall Street, as the stock has lost over 20% of its value year-to-date.

Smart money should note that this downgrade comes at a time when Netflix's performance has been under scrutiny, indicating potential challenges ahead in maintaining subscriber growth and profitability. The market's reaction suggests a growing concern about the sustainability of Netflix's business model amidst increasing competition and changing consumer preferences.

12:40
PDT
Higher interest rates are creating short-term headwinds for real estate but also opportunities for cash flow-focused investments.
JP MorganChad TreadwayKevin WarshWells FargoNetflixAI
– There is a significant housing supply shortage in the U.S., estimated at five million units.
– The Sunbelt region is attracting capital and showing strong demand for rental properties.
– Investors are advised to dollar cost average through market volatility.
– Older office properties are facing high vacancy rates, necessitating renovations or conversions.
real estate investmentinterest rateshousing supplydemographic trends
▸ Full transcript
The coolest thing you can grow with money. What do you actually do? Is this just for rich people? How do you know what to choose? We get a lot of smart people together. We're analyzing all of the data. We're doing research. And we're pulling all that together to think about what would be the best investment today that will make money in the future. Invest like the future is watching. The end of jobs or the end of human struggle. We see the endless funds fueling the AI hype. While others follow the noise, we follow the money. It touches on everything that we care about: the economy, media and information, markets, trade, and geopolitics.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted the ongoing impact of rising interest rates on the real estate market, with a focus on the challenges and opportunities presented by higher costs of capital. Notably, the conversation emphasized the importance of cash flow and diversification in real estate investments, particularly in the context of a changing economic landscape.

Smart money should take note of the significant demand for housing amid a shortage of supply, particularly in the Sunbelt region, where migration trends are strong. The potential for increased rent growth due to limited new construction presents a compelling investment opportunity, despite the headwinds from rising rates.

12:38
PDT
70% vacancy in lower-tier office properties.
Chad TreadwayJP MorganPark AvenueMidtownSun BeltJPWells Fargo
– High demand for prime office locations like Park Avenue.
– Renovations and conversions to residential are increasing.
– Focus on senior housing and student accommodations in the Sun Belt.
– Quality office space is preferred over older properties.
office market dynamicsadaptive reusedemographic trendsreal estate investment
▸ Full transcript
If you will. And I do wonder if that is sort of masking an office market that maybe isn't as healthy as it should be. I know, you know, they class is supposed to be it, but what about everybody else? We completely agree. It has and have nots. If you look at the bottom third of office, it's got 70% of the vacancy. And there's literally no ability to get into the best office properties on Park Avenue. Midtown's been a great example of that, our headquarters. But it's the most in demand. And we still think the trade is to go for quality in office, and its office really meets hospitality versus older office. Well, I'm curious, so for those other properties, the ones with the 70% vacancies and stuff, what's the solution for those from the owner's perspective? Is that just basically a tear down and start from scratch? Or, I mean, how do you resolve that? We are beginning to see more renovations and more conversions into residential, but I do think some creative adaptive reuse is what's going to be required for office that is older office talk that cannot be re-leased. And finally demographics when it comes to students or senior living what are you seeing there? I think the first baby boomers will be 80 this year and we focused a lot on senior housing how do we think about this demographic trend we're seeing it in the Sun Belt which has been very exciting for us and we also are investing in student housing. Alright thank you Chad Treadway global head of real estate at JP Morgan asset management. Coming up, shares of Netflix dropping today after a Wells Fargo downgrade is today's stock.
Analysis

The office market is showing significant disparities, with the bottom third experiencing 70% vacancy rates, while prime locations like Park Avenue remain in high demand. Creative adaptive reuse and renovations are becoming necessary for older office properties that cannot be re-leased, indicating a shift in how real estate is approached in the current market.

Investors should note the ongoing trend of converting older office spaces into residential units, which could present new opportunities amidst rising vacancies. Additionally, the demographic shift towards senior housing and student accommodations in the Sun Belt highlights a growing market segment that could be leveraged for future investments.

12:36
PDT
Dollar cost averaging is a key strategy in current market volatility.
JP MorganChad TreadwaySunbeltWashingtonTokyoBloombergUSDXY
– Sunbelt region is experiencing increased demand with limited supply.
– Focus on middle-income families for rental properties is strategic.
– Rising interest rates are impacting construction and supply.
– Net lease structures are favored for stable cash flow.
real estate investmentinterest ratessupply and demandmiddle-income housing
▸ Full transcript
The market that may sort of be better for income generation? 80% of the overall market, transaction size is less than $100 million. So for us, being able to dollar cost average throughout every market and use our scale and our size to create great transactions for our investors is a place that we've really focused. You typically don't see a large manager focusing on smaller deals, but we have loved dollar cost averaging through the volatility in this market. Which regions within the US have the most capital right now? We've seen a lot of capital go into the Sunbelt, which has created a lot of building. And we talked about a lot of units in the market the last time I was here. The exciting part now is we aren't seeing much building given the increase in rates. What does that mean? That means that there's going to be less supply, more demand, and increased rent growth. But then also what about the job aspect of it? If you don't have construction happening to build those homes too from a job aspect? We still like the migration trends going into the Sunbelt. We've really focused our portfolio on middle-income families making roughly a hundred and ten thousand dollars per year. It's great the average rental unit for us is around twenty-five hundred dollars. There's a big job population that can fill that and it's been great to be able to support the community in that way. I don't want to go back though because when you talk about the dollar cost averaging in and the net lease kind of deals and the structure of all that here. I mean if you're going sort of if you're taking a single-tenant long-term deal here. Is that actually a real estate bet, or is that just, I mean, that to me just sounds.
Analysis

The focus on dollar cost averaging in smaller real estate transactions is gaining traction as larger managers adapt to market volatility. With rising interest rates leading to decreased supply and increased demand in the Sunbelt region, rental growth is expected to accelerate.

Smart money should note the shift towards middle-income housing in the Sunbelt, where demand is strong despite construction slowdowns. The emphasis on net lease structures indicates a strategic pivot towards stable cash flows amidst rising capital costs.

12:34
PDT
Real estate values have dropped over 20% due to rising interest rates.
JP MorganChad TreadwayWashingtonU.S. housing marketDXY
– Net lease strategies are gaining traction for their cash flow benefits.
– There is a significant housing shortage in the U.S., estimated at five million units.
– Investors are encouraged to dollar cost average throughout the current cycle.
– Higher rates present both challenges and opportunities in the real estate sector.
real estate investmentinterest rateshousing supplycash flow strategies
▸ Full transcript
But then you wound down that more diversified fund that was 1.4 billion. Well, I mean, what's changed over the last couple of years where you felt like a net lease structure was the right way to go? The investing landscape continues to evolve. And as rates go up, investors demand more options from real estate. Real estate's really going back to the fundamentals, meaning cash flow and diversification. The net lease strategy allows investors to have a lot of cash flow, so 10% current cash flow through that real estate vehicle. Any red flags within real estate that concern you right now? We're always watching the real estate markets incredibly closely. I think one thing that we've seen that we talk to investors a lot about is the repricing of real estate. So as you know, rates went from zero to over 5 percent and that caused real estate values to drop by over 20. So we really think now is a great time to buy value and the biggest concern for us is having investors dollar cost average throughout this cycle. And you just had, in Washington, they were passing a bill in July to make housing affordability more accessible for other people. And then, of course, we have the midterm elections coming up. How do you position around certain policy uncertainties when it comes to that with this administration? So, we always think about housing. And I think we've spoken on this show before. We're five million housing units short of what we need in this country for the housing demand. And what would need to happen to fix that? More supply. The other issue now is with rates at 7 percent, we believe we should be creating more housing which is why we own over 6,000 single-family rental housing units. These are not units that we take out of communities but units that...
Analysis

The real estate market is experiencing a significant repricing as interest rates have surged from zero to over 5%, leading to a drop in real estate values by over 20%. Investors are now seeking more options and cash flow through net lease strategies, which provide a current cash flow of 10%.

Despite the challenges posed by higher rates, there is a notable opportunity for investors to buy value in real estate. The ongoing housing shortage, with five million units needed, highlights the necessity for increased supply, particularly as mortgage rates approach 7% and affordability remains a pressing issue.

12:32
PDT
Nearly half of consumers plan to spend less this holiday season.
AccentureCatherine GramleyWalmartCostcoAmazonJP MorganChad TreadwayKevin WarshFederal ReserveGDPJPJane MorganFEDFUNDS
– Inflation has led to a 15% increase in prices over the past year.
– 20% of consumers started holiday shopping before August.
– Retailers need to enhance promotional strategies to attract shoppers.
– Increased use of layaway and buy now, pay later options expected.
consumer spendingretail strategyinterest ratescommercial real estate
▸ Full transcript
It's kind of ironic. But nevertheless, I don't pick those shots. You know, we've been talking all course for the last few days, I had nausea about that Fed rate decision. Yes. Obviously widely telegraphed, but really it was the tone and the idea that this isn't a one and done if you kind of believe or at least try to read the tea leaves of what Kevin Warsh had to say. And especially just mortgage rates approaching 7%. And even if you think two years ago when the Fed began cutting rates, you still had mortgage rates hovering above 6%. So a lot of the affordability issues still pinching a lot of those consumers, especially trying to get housing. Yeah. And so we've been talking, of course, about a lot of the negative impacts of higher rates, but there are also some opportunities there as well. Chad Treadway is global head of real estate at JP Morgan asset management. Of course, Jane Morgan has that big, beautiful real estate now down on Park Avenue. Chad, thanks for being here in our, in our old building up here on Lexington Avenue. I do want to start off with rates, because I was looking at JPMorgan asset management's most recent mid-year outlook. And I think you guys were basically pricing in less than 50 basis points of rate hikes this year. We got half of that. Yes, there's a couple days ago. With the expectations, we're going to get maybe another 25 basis points. Is this material change in any way, your outlook for the rest of the year into next year? We remain bullish on commercial real estate. It's interesting, though. I mean, higher rates mean a higher cost of capital. And that's obviously a short-term headwind for the industry. That being said, just look at the economy. So if you look at the Fed data, GDP is expected to grow by 2.3%.
Analysis

Consumers are feeling the financial strain, with nearly half planning to spend the same or less this holiday season, influenced by inflation and rising prices. Retailers will need to adapt their promotional strategies significantly to attract shoppers, particularly lower and middle-income consumers who have depleted their savings.

The shift in consumer behavior suggests a potential increase in reliance on layaway and buy now, pay later options this holiday season. Retailers that can effectively communicate promotions and adjust product assortments may find opportunities to capture market share despite the challenging economic environment.

12:30
PDT
Geopolitical tensions and inflation are influencing global capital markets.
JapanWashingtonTokyoBloombergAIIn JapanThis DecemberScarlett FooPRIVATE
– Japan's corporate reforms and rate adjustments are critical to market dynamics.
– The collaboration between Washington and Tokyo aims to support the yen.
– Investors should prepare for potential shifts in capital flows due to Japan's economic changes.
– Bloomberg Invest Tokyo in December may highlight new investment opportunities.
geopolitical riskmonetary policycapital flows
▸ Full transcript
The world is repricing risk. Geopolitics, inflation, and AI are rewriting the rules of capital. In Japan, rates are resetting, corporate reform is accelerating, and Washington and Tokyo are acting together to support the yen. Japan's reset is a global story because what happens in Japan can move markets and portfolios worldwide. This December, global capital meets in Tokyo. Bloomberg invests Tokyo, December 2nd and 3rd, where intelligence meets capital. Bringing you the latest business news wherever and whenever it happens, I'm Scarlett Foo, reporting from America's biggest military shipyard. This is Bloomberg.
Analysis

The global financial landscape is undergoing a significant shift as geopolitics, inflation, and AI reshape capital dynamics. Japan's monetary policy adjustments and corporate reforms are pivotal, with implications that extend to global markets, particularly as Washington and Tokyo collaborate to stabilize the yen.

Smart investors should note that Japan's economic reset is not just a local phenomenon; it has the potential to influence capital flows and market sentiment worldwide. The upcoming Bloomberg Invest Tokyo event in December could serve as a critical juncture for global capital allocation strategies.

12:26
PDT
90% of shoppers plan to start holiday shopping early.
AccentureWalmartCostcoAmazonBlack FridayCyber MondayKath Grambling
– Lower and middle-income consumers are depleting savings, increasing reliance on financing options.
– Retailers will need to offer more significant discounts to drive sales.
– The holiday season may favor discount retailers over specialty stores.
– Promotional strategies will need to adapt beyond traditional year-end cycles.
consumer spendingretail discountingholiday shopping trends
▸ Full transcript
Black Friday and Cyber Monday, 90% of the shoppers in our survey said they'll already be shopping. So I think all retail needs to really think about how they look at both promotions, product assortment, mix, and being able to communicate those promotional cycles each month, not just the last month of the year as we normally would see. So with some of the promotions though and deals, are these going to be more material than in years past? Because I feel like the last couple of years, a lot of these deals are kind of, you know, we have to put deals in quotation marks. You know, it wasn't the savings that maybe some of us were used to say pre-pandemic. Are we going to see more true discounting or are inventory levels in the shapes of some of these retailers strong enough to maybe hold the line? I think you're right. There's definitely going to have to be a much more significant specific set of deals this year to get consumers to get out there and shop. For our lower and middle-income consumers, they have already depleted their savings over the last two years. And so there isn't that extra in the pot. So layaway, buy now, pay later, those types of purchases, I think we'll see much more and more of this holiday season than we did last. Yeah. All right, Kath, got to leave it there. Some great data out by Accenture. Kath Grambling, she's the head of global consumer goods retail and travel over at It looks like just the holiday season for some folks, maybe a little bit tight about a little bit. And it's important to just see what that means for the trajectory of as rates continue.
Analysis

Retailers are preparing for a challenging holiday season, with 90% of surveyed shoppers indicating they will start shopping early. Lower and middle-income consumers are expected to rely more on layaway and buy now, pay later options due to depleted savings, signaling a shift in consumer behavior compared to previous years.

The anticipated need for more significant discounts this holiday season suggests that retailers may struggle to maintain margins. This environment could favor discount retailers like Walmart and Costco, while specialty retailers may face challenges in attracting budget-conscious shoppers.

12:23
PDT
Nearly half of consumers plan to spend less this holiday season.
AccentureWalmartCostcoAmazonCatherine GramleyFEDFUNDSAMZN
– Inflation has led to a 15% increase in prices over the past year.
– 20% of consumers have started holiday shopping early.
– Discount retailers like Walmart and Costco may benefit from changing consumer behavior.
– Specialty retailers could face challenges in maintaining sales.
consumer spendingretail dynamicsinflation impact
▸ Full transcript
Accenture shows that nearly half of consumers are planning to spend the same amount or less than they did last year. Catherine Gramley is the head of global consumer goods, retail, and travel at Accenture, and she joins us right now to talk a little bit more about that data. Give me a sense here, Cat, when we talk about the sort of people spending less. I know it's just a little more than half here, but is that a material change than what we had been seeing in years past in terms of the changes year to year? Well, thanks. It's a great starting question. So yeah, it's material in the fact that consumers are really feeling the pinch in their wallet this year, both from our Accenture and Macro foresight analysis where we think 15% of prices have changed and increased actually over the last year, really due to inflation, which we saw this year, this week actually, and the Fed, as well as what we saw in the retail sales up this August. Consumers are really feeling the pinch, and they're starting shopping early. Almost 20% of consumers, shoppers, have already started shopping for the holiday even before August. Well, give me a sense here, at least from the retailer side, as to maybe who sort of benefits from this type of environment. Is this sort of a Walmart type of Christmas that we're going to be looking at or another type of discount companies like Costco and even an Amazon in the e-commerce space, or can sort of the more specialty retailers sort of hold their own? Yeah, excellent.
Analysis

Accenture's data reveals that nearly half of consumers plan to spend the same amount or less this holiday season compared to last year, indicating a significant shift in consumer sentiment driven by inflation. With 15% price increases noted, early shopping trends suggest that consumers are feeling financial pressure, prompting them to seek discounts from major retailers like Walmart and Costco.

Smart money should note that the shift towards early shopping and budget-conscious spending could favor discount retailers and e-commerce giants, while specialty retailers may struggle to maintain their margins. This environment may lead to a more competitive landscape among retailers as they vie for a shrinking pool of consumer spending.

12:21
PDT
ZocDoc partners with Amazon Health AI for nationwide appointment bookings.
ZocDocAmazon Health AIDr. Oliver KaratPresident Donald TrumpCNNMSNOWPoliticoWhite House Correspondence AssociationAssociated PressWhite HouseCorrespondents AssociationOur Kelly Lyons
– The Care Access Network aims to improve patient access to healthcare.
– ZocDoc positions itself as an infrastructure provider in the healthcare sector.
– Concerns about the digital divide in healthcare access remain.
– Potential for increased market penetration through third-party integrations.
healthcare accessdigital dividetelehealth expansion
▸ Full transcript
Previously, what do you think is the time frame on here when we can hear more developments for the latest news outlets that this has happened to? Well, it's an excellent question. No one can get into the president's mind as to whether or not this is an immediate ban, although he says it is if that means today. Could that mean that these news organizations are followed with court challenges today? Perhaps we have seen other news organizations, aside from the Associated Press, be willing to take issues like this to the courts, not necessarily with just the White House, with the wider Trump administration, keeping in mind the Pentagon also has been dealing with issues with restrictions it has placed on the press inside of its facilities and restrictions on actual reporting that spurred a lot of news organizations actually turning in their credentials because they were unwilling to agree to that. So we have seen issues with the press bubbling up in different pockets of this administration. Obviously when it comes directly to the White House, the White House Correspondence Association also, it's likely to play a role I would expect that we'll get a statement from the Correspondents Association on this shortly as well as they would be kind of one of the first lines of responses. They organized media organizations' relationship with the White House at large. Our Kelly Lyons and the Balance of Power team their show actually starts at 5 p.m. Washington time. I'm sure they'll have some more details on that. We are going to get back to our markets coverage and take a little bit of a pivot here. We're going to talk about what's been going on with the consumer and specifically what could potentially be going on with the holiday season, which of course is just around the corner. Now just yesterday I had a chance.
Analysis

ZocDoc is expanding its services by launching the Care Access Network in partnership with Amazon Health AI, enabling nationwide appointment bookings. This move positions ZocDoc as an infrastructure player in healthcare, similar to Shopify in e-commerce, enhancing patient access to care without restricting its brand visibility.

The integration with third parties could lead to increased market penetration for ZocDoc, but it also raises concerns about the digital divide in healthcare access. Smart money should note that while ZocDoc aims to serve all patients, the effectiveness of this initiative will depend on how well it addresses the needs of underserved populations.

12:19
PDT
Trump bans CNN, MSNOW, and Politico from the White House.
Donald TrumpCNNMSNOWPoliticoCEOMSNBCDCWhite HousePresident Donald TrumpKaley LyonsTruth SocialAssociated Press
– The ban is based on accusations of 'fake reporting.'
– Legal challenges are likely, reminiscent of past presidential actions.
– This could impact media stocks and press freedom discussions.
– Further bans on additional media outlets may follow.
press freedommedia regulation
▸ Full transcript
The efficiency in health care. All right, we'll have to leave it there. Dr. Karaz, the CEO and founder of ZocDoc. We want to get some breaking news right now for our viewers. This is involving the White House and a new edict from President Donald Trump that he would ban at least two cable networks, excuse me, at least three news organizations from actually being at the White House. That includes the cable network CNN as well as MSNOW, formerly MSNBC, as well as the online publication Politico. Kaley Lyons joining us right now from our Washington, DC set, the cohost of Balance of Power. What exactly is going on here, Kaley? Well, this announcement was just made by the president, who of course does not have an acting White House press secretary, I would mention, Romaine. So it's unclear whether or not this is the president's decision alone to make or how he would enforce it if this decision in his mind were to stand at CNN. MSNOW in Politico, he says, will be banned from now on the grounds of what he describes as fake reporting in his words. He says fiction and lies, but he also says at the end of this post on Truth Social that more fake, other fake news media outlets to follow, suggesting there could be more to come here. Obviously, this is a move that could easily draw court challenges as we saw earlier in the president's term back in 2025 when he banned the Associated Press from the White House due to their unwillingness to rename the Gulf of America, a Gulf of Mexico for Gulf of America after he signed that executive order and they are still banned; an appeals court held up their ban.
Analysis

President Trump announced a ban on CNN, MSNOW, and Politico from the White House, citing 'fake reporting.' This move raises questions about press freedom and the potential for legal challenges, reminiscent of past actions taken during his presidency.

Smart money should note the implications of this decision on media stocks and the broader political landscape, as it may signal an escalation in tensions between the administration and the press. The potential for court challenges could create volatility in related sectors, particularly those tied to media and communications.

12:17
PDT
ZocDoc's new capabilities improve patient appointment booking efficiency.
ZocDocAmazon Health AIOliver Karat
– The company is positioning itself as an infrastructure provider in healthcare.
– ZocDoc serves patients across various insurance plans, including those with restricted access.
– The initiative may help bridge the digital divide in healthcare access.
– ZocDoc's strategy could lead to increased market share in telehealth.
healthcare accessdigital dividetelehealth expansion
▸ Full transcript
Of these new developments that you're doing, shorten that time period. So already today on ZocDoc, we can get a patient typically between 24 and 72 hours. And so we're already talking about essentially a factor of 10 better than picking up the phone and dialing for doctors. What's unique about us is that we are very much open and we say, well, we've created this fantastic capability that improves the patient experience by an order of magnitude; we are opening this up to other third parties. We are not trying to build a walled garden and keep that only for us. Yeah, it's all in the service of the patient to make sure their experience is great wherever they start. I am curious just about when we talk about expansion of access, when we talk about these digital tools, to a certain extent these are tools that more affluent people or at least people of a certain means have greater access to. When we talk about expanding our healthcare universe and access to coverage, how do you address issues with the digital divide and people that maybe don't have the same access that you or I would have to these digital tools? So we're proud that we serve patients with all insurances. Yeah, we say, you know, obviously, patient like you and me, but we would serve patients that are, you know, covered by plans that have much harder access restrictions. And in fact, you know, we can help these patients to get access on the same terms that you do. You can still go there, you put in your insurance, and it shows you which doctors are.
Analysis

ZocDoc is enhancing patient access by reducing appointment booking times to between 24 and 72 hours, significantly improving the patient experience. The company is opening its infrastructure to third parties, aiming to democratize access to healthcare services and address the digital divide in healthcare access.

12:14
PDT
ZocDoc is enabling third-party access to its healthcare infrastructure.
ZocDocAmazon Health AIOliver KaratCare Access Network
– The company aims to increase patient access without solely relying on its brand.
– ZocDoc's strategy aligns with successful infrastructure models in other industries.
– Potential for increased partnerships and revenue streams in healthcare.
– Concerns about brand visibility and competition may arise.
healthcare accessinfrastructure investment
▸ Full transcript
Good to be here. So many of your viewers probably know ZocDoc as a destination side where you go, you find a doctor that accepts your insurance, you book your appointment. What we have done over the last 20 years is to build the infrastructure that actually enables it. So the integrations with the doctor scheduling systems and electronic health records, the mapping of insurance, and what's new now is that we make this available to third parties. Anyone who has a patient audience and they want to make sure that patients have an easy time to get access to care can use our Care Access Network and the health access infrastructure we provide. The journey doesn't have to start on ZocDoc, but we want to make sure that every single front door which a patient knocks nationwide opens.
Analysis

ZocDoc is expanding its infrastructure to allow third parties to facilitate patient access to healthcare, enhancing its role as an infrastructure player in the healthcare space. This strategic move positions ZocDoc to open more 'front doors' to care, potentially increasing its market presence without relying solely on its brand for patient engagement.

Smart money should note that ZocDoc's approach mirrors successful models in other industries, such as Shopify in e-commerce and Stripe in payments, indicating a shift towards a more integrated healthcare ecosystem. This could lead to increased partnerships and revenue streams, while also raising questions about brand visibility and competition in the healthcare access market.

12:12
PDT
ZocDoc partners with Amazon Health AI.
ZocDocAmazon Health AIDr. Oliver KaratAIJones RoadWall Street WeekCare Access NetworkAmazon HealthOliver KaratAMZN
– Launch of Care Access Network to enhance appointment bookings.
– Potential reshaping of telehealth competitive landscape.
– Improved patient access and operational efficiencies expected.
– Strategic positioning against competitors in telehealth.
telehealth expansionhealthcare technologyAI integration
▸ Full transcript
Geopolitics. Husband, my head was down on ways and I looked down I saw Jones Road and he said, I said Jones Road beauty, he said I like it and that's how it became Jones Road. Join me each week on Wall Street Week for stories of capitalism from business, markets, economics, tech and climate. More than what you need to know, it's what you need to think about. Alright, time to talk the business of health, telehealth providers, ZocDoc launching the Care Access Network and partnering with Amazon Health AI to enable nationwide appointment bookings for its users and Dr. Oliver Karat.
Analysis

ZocDoc is launching the Care Access Network and partnering with Amazon Health AI to facilitate nationwide appointment bookings, signaling a significant move in the telehealth space. This partnership could enhance patient access and streamline healthcare services, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape in telehealth.

Smart money should note that this collaboration not only expands ZocDoc's service offerings but also positions it strategically against competitors in the telehealth market. The integration of Amazon's AI capabilities could lead to improved operational efficiencies and user experience, making ZocDoc a more formidable player in healthcare technology.

12:10
PDT
Partnership with Amazon Health AI aims to transform patient access.
Amazon Health AIOliver CarrasJP MorganCaitlin DonovanGlobal Auction HouseJupiterAICEOJPNBAAmazon HealthMorgan Asset ManagementFEDFUNDSAMZNPRIVATE
– Potential Fed rate hikes could impact the housing market.
– Auction for Michael Jordan's jersey starts at $10 million.
– Insights from JP Morgan on real estate trends are forthcoming.
– Increased focus on data-driven insights in finance.
healthcare innovationreal estate markethigh-value collectibles
▸ Full transcript
The marketplace for booking doctor visits is partnering with Amazon Health AI on something that it says will change the face of patient access. A conversation up ahead with CEO Oliver Carras. Plus, can the housing market weather this Fed rate hike with another one possibly waiting in the wings? The global head of real estate at JP Morgan Asset Management gives us his view. And if you ever saw The Last Dance, well, of course, a lot of people talked about it. A lot of people talked about Game 3 of the 1998 NBA Finals with Michael Jordan wearing that jersey. That could be yours for the very low price of about $10 million. It's up for auction. The reserve is $10 million, so starting at $10 million. Caitlin Donovan of Global Auction House Jupiter is going to be here with the goods in just a bit. Right here on the close, right here on Bloomberg. Your favorite game, connect points. Because for you, data is not just data; they are the great thing, only well done. This is for those who recognize all the insights. This is for the craft of finance.
Analysis

The marketplace for booking doctor visits is partnering with Amazon Health AI, which is expected to significantly enhance patient access. Additionally, the housing market faces uncertainty with potential Fed rate hikes looming, prompting insights from JP Morgan's global head of real estate.

12:08
PDT
Fed's rate hikes may lead to demand destruction in the economy.
Scott BesantKevin WarshU.S. TreasuryFederal ReserveAnd Scott Besant
– Treasury and Fed have conflicting objectives regarding interest rates.
– Warsh prioritizes front-end rates over communication and balance sheet.
– Scott Besant is focused on financing large government debt.
– Investor opportunities may arise from the divergence in strategies.
interest rate policygovernment debt financing
▸ Full transcript
The core inflation rate is back down to that 2% target here. How much control does he have over the idea that some of this is supply-side energy? Right, well as you tighten rates, as you raise rates, you will eventually see behavioral changes. And the U.S. is a net exporter of energy, so we haven't seen those behavioral changes massively here yet, but at higher rates, we think that people could potentially stop driving. They could take fewer vacations. There could be some demand destruction in terms of the economy. I think that could happen. Is what he's trying to do, though, going to be in conflict with whatever the Treasury is trying to do? Normally these two agencies, while they don't explicitly say it, are in communication and to a certain extent work together. But this seems like, at least in terms of how they're thinking, they seem to be going in opposite directions. I'm glad you brought that up. They have very different desires and reaction functions right now. I would argue even more so in the past because Warsh has really made it clear that he wants to use the front-end rate as his primary tool and not communication and not the balance sheet. And Scott Besant has to figure out how to finance this large government debt. So he's really worried about rates going up in the long end and across the curve. So they absolutely have different reaction functions right now. And if you're an investor, what does that mean? Does that create opportunity for you out there? I think in the rates side and interest rates in general.
Analysis

The discussion highlights the conflicting objectives between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding interest rates and government debt financing. As the Fed raises rates, potential demand destruction in the economy could occur, impacting consumer behavior and energy consumption.

Investors should note the divergence in strategies between the Fed's focus on front-end rates and the Treasury's concern over long-end rates. This misalignment may create unique opportunities in the interest rate market as each entity navigates their respective challenges.

12:05
PDT
U.S. Treasury buybacks could influence long-term pricing dynamics.
Kevin WarshFederal ReserveJP MorganJamie DimonU.S. TreasuryTokyoJPFEDFUNDS
– Japanese investors remain interested in U.S. Treasuries despite rate concerns.
– Inflation expectations and global yields are critical factors for the long end of the curve.
– Credibility of hawkish moves by central bank officials may stabilize market perceptions.
– Historical accuracy of rate hike predictions can inform future expectations.
Treasury buybacksJapanese investmentinflation expectationscentral bank policy
▸ Full transcript
To about $120 billion a quarter. There are nine of these buybacks in the long end every quarter, and he first said $4 billion and then $6 billion or more. But let's just imagine if they average $5 billion, $45 billion a quarter to buying versus the issuance of $120 billion. Those are significant numbers. What else goes into pricing a long end of the curve? Where are global yields? There's nothing he can do about that. Where are longer-term inflation expectations? I think Kevin Warsh's moves and coming out on the hawkish side probably helps with some credibility there. So there's a lot that goes into that back end of the curve. I traded that for years and I don't think that one man can wrangle the 30-year U.S. Treasury rate. So does this make the U.S. less alluring to Tokyo investors? No, I don't think so because the Japanese domestics there are primarily focused inside the curve. I mean there are some insurance buyers in the back end, but I think that there's the whole curve to play with. I think it's still alluring. Something I was thinking about, you were on this program at the end of 2021, and that's when you were talking about how right after the back of that Federal Reserve decision you were calling for five at least hikes in 2022, and at the time people were surprised by that, but a month later Jamie Dimon from JP Morgan was calling for seven, and you ended up being right. There were seven that happened that year.
Analysis

The discussion highlighted significant buyback activity in the long end of the Treasury curve, with potential implications for pricing and investor interest. Despite concerns about U.S. Treasury rates, Japanese investors may still find U.S. assets appealing due to their focus on the entire curve rather than just the long end.

12:03
PDT
Bank of Japan is slowly tightening policy.
Bank of JapanTreasury SecretaryMimi DuffGenTrustFXWall Street
– Yen fair value estimated at 160-165.
– U.S. inflation has been above 2% for five years.
– Market uncertainty about the longevity of rate hikes.
– Differential in rates between Japan and the U.S. remains significant.
central bank policycurrency valuationinflation trends
▸ Full transcript
Raise rates going forward. I think the Bank of Japan has been behaving as largely was expected; it is cautiously, slowly looking to tighten policy. The problem is it doesn't matter how often Treasury Secretary shouts like some demented grandmother at a bingo parlor. It's not going to change the fundamentals, and the fundamentals are that the fair value for the yen is probably around 160-165. Alright, and that is of course just one person's opinion. We kick you off to the close here on this Friday afternoon with Mimi Duff. She's a senior client advisor over at GenTrust, and earlier in her career, she spent time running a lot of the trading and syndicated desk on Wall Street for fixed income, commodities, FX, etc. I do want to actually start there as to sort of what it means when a central bank actually hikes rates and then you see its currency actually weaken. Yeah, I think of what it means basically is they're not sure how long the hiking campaign will continue. The two dissenters did well; one just sort of agreed with the other. The first dissenter said, well, we're approaching the 2% mark; their inflation is running just below 2%, coming from obviously a very, very low base, but they're maybe 1.8 or 1.9. It's a different situation here in the U.S. where we've been above 2% for five years. There's been a lot of talk about the differential between what we're seeing and the rates in Japan and here in the U.S.
Analysis

The Bank of Japan is cautiously tightening its policy, but the yen is expected to weaken, with fair value estimated around 160-165. This reflects uncertainty about the duration of the rate hike campaign, contrasting with the U.S. where inflation has consistently exceeded 2%.

12:01
PDT
S&P 500 sees second straight week of declines.
S&P 500US governmentTreasury Futurescentral bankUSWeekend RomainAnd FridayTreasury FutureS&P 500
– Volume spikes due to triple witching options expiration.
– More stocks hitting 52-week lows than highs for nine consecutive days.
– Short-term US government debt yields have risen for five straight weeks.
– Treasury Futures are at their most oversold levels since 2000.
market volatilityequity weaknessbond market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
Weekend Romain. Yeah, and back, of course, to those equities. That's the second straight week of declines for the S&P 500. That's on the back of the tier rating breath with the number of stocks hitting 52-week lows outpacing those hitting 52-week highs for a ninth straight day. And Friday's triple witching option expiration is driving higher than normal volumes. Most of that volume spike occurred right around the open, so far, though another spike is likely in the final minutes of trading as folks roll over or close out some of those positions. All of this, of course, comes amid the backdrop of a fifth straight week of gains for short-term US government debt yields after a slew of central bank meetings and energy market volatility that pushed Treasury Future prices to the most oversold levels since 2000.
Analysis

The S&P 500 has experienced its second consecutive week of declines, with a notable number of stocks hitting 52-week lows outpacing those reaching highs. This trend coincides with a spike in trading volumes due to Friday's triple witching options expiration, amidst rising yields in short-term US government debt following recent central bank meetings.

Smart money should note the significant oversold conditions in Treasury Futures, the most extreme since 2000, which could signal a potential reversal or volatility in the bond market. Additionally, the persistent decline in equities, despite high trading volumes, suggests underlying weakness that may not be immediately apparent to all investors.

11:59
PDT
Netflix shares down 4% after Wells Fargo downgrade.
NetflixWells FargoNFLN U EAAPL
– Wells Fargo cites lack of engaging original series as a concern.
– Netflix has declined about 50% since June 2025.
– Market saturation in streaming is impacting Netflix's performance.
– Investors should monitor Netflix's content strategy closely.
streaming market dynamicscontent strategy
▸ Full transcript
You came back with the big show on Netflix. Big show show, which was back in 2020. So don't like, you know, I thought that was a fair search. Coin NFL X and N U E, of course the tickers that is our stock movers podcast. Check out its five-minute episodes, big winners and losers you can find it on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere you get your podcast. We're keeping Tatiana here because she's markets life strategies for when it comes to these chips.
Analysis

Netflix shares are under pressure, down 4% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to underweight, citing worrying engagement trends and a lack of breakout hits. The stock has seen a significant decline of about 50% since June 2025, indicating ongoing challenges in attracting viewers.

Smart money should note that Netflix's struggle to produce compelling original content is a critical factor affecting its stock performance. The downgrade reflects broader concerns about the streaming market's saturation and the need for innovative programming to drive subscriber growth.

11:56
PDT
Crypto industry sees regulatory relief after Clarity Act fails.
NetflixWells FargoClarity ActPresident TrumpHBOTVAAPL
– Netflix shares down 4% due to Wells Fargo downgrade.
– Concerns over Netflix's engagement trends and lack of original hits.
– Netflix has declined approximately 50% since June 2025.
– Potential long-term trends in both crypto and streaming sectors.
crypto regulationstreaming service performance
▸ Full transcript
To move forward with the digital asset regulation after that landmark crypto bill failed this week in Congress. So I think the key message here is that there's a little bit of regulatory relief for this industry after that big Clarity Act failed to pass Congress this week. Just a shout out for a story on the terminal. The $1.4 billion haul from President Trump coming back to haunt the crypto industry. Check out this story on the terminal. It's about some of the obstacles that the Clarity Act faced. All right, so we continue to cover that in a big way. Hey, let's get to Netflix under pressure. Yeah, those shares down 4% here, bearing losses after seeing its biggest decline in two months here. It got its first celebrating here in some time. That came from Wells Fargo downgrading the stock to underweight, saying that there are some worrying engagement trends that they are seeing for the company. It said that Netflix has lacked the big original series and it is showing in their results. To them, they need some breakout hits as a must for this stock to work again. And if you look at the performance for the past year or so, it has really been severely under pressure down about 50% since June 2025. But that got me thinking, when's the last time I saw a big show on Netflix? I don't know. Do you guys watch more Netflix? I don't know. What's the last big show? We're HBO and Apple TV. I have small kids, so I have an excuse. I don't have time. I know, we're in the air. What was the last big show?
Analysis

The crypto industry received a slight regulatory relief following the failure of the Clarity Act in Congress, which could impact future digital asset regulations. Meanwhile, Netflix shares fell 4% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock to underweight, citing concerning engagement trends and a lack of breakout original series as critical issues for the company's performance.

Smart money should note that Netflix's significant decline of about 50% since June 2025 highlights a potential long-term trend of diminishing content appeal. The regulatory landscape for crypto may shift, but the immediate impact of the Clarity Act's failure suggests a temporary reprieve rather than a comprehensive solution for the industry.

11:54
PDT
S&P 500 up 8 points.
S&P 500DowNasdaq 100BitcoinBloombergCarol MasserTim SteneveckHaslinda AminBloomberg Business Week DailyBloomberg RadioBloomberg NewsMarkets LifePRIVATES&P 500
– Dow down slightly on a percentage basis.
– Nasdaq 100 up 106 points.
– Indicates some buying activity in the market.
– Potential shift in investor sentiment towards tech stocks.
market sentimenttechnology stockscryptocurrency interest
▸ Full transcript
Up to the minute news whenever and wherever it happens. I'm Haslinda Amin in Mumbai. This is Bloomberg. This is Bloomberg Business Week Daily with Carol Masser and Tim Steneveck on Bloomberg Radio and Television. All right, everybody coming up on the last hour of trading on this Friday and for the week overall. So what do we got? We got stocks actually some buying. Wait, am I looking at the right thing? Sorry, I look at the right. W-E-I. Well, I have my own little. I know you have your custom made. I do. You do. But it never leads you astray. I went to the customization shop here at Bloomberg. S&P 500, up eight points. So just a little bit of a move to the upside. Dow still down a hair on a percentage basis. Nasdaq 100 now in the green. 106 points to the upside. Not quite 4 tenths of a percent. But so we're seeing some buy-in going on a little bit. I'm Tim Steneveck along with Carol Masser. Let's take a look at some stocks on the move today. With us is Bloomberg News, Markets Life, Stratas, it's Friday so happy Friday let's get this done. Let's buy Bitcoin. Well the crypto names.
Analysis

The S&P 500 is up eight points, indicating a slight upward movement, while the Dow is down marginally. The Nasdaq 100 has gained 106 points, suggesting some buying activity in the market as the trading week comes to a close.

Despite the mixed performance of major indices, the Nasdaq's positive movement could signal a shift in investor sentiment towards tech stocks, particularly in the context of ongoing interest in cryptocurrencies. This divergence may present opportunities for traders to capitalize on sector-specific trends as market dynamics evolve.

11:50
PDT
NFL venues are transitioning to hybrid surfaces for improved performance.
NFLFIFAKansas CitySan FranciscoMiamiNFLPAJoint Surface CommitteeWorld CupAAPL
– Injury rates are statistically similar between turf and grass surfaces.
– Player feedback is driving the search for better synthetic materials.
– The NFL's international games present unique challenges for field management.
– Ongoing advancements in playing surfaces could reshape venue operations.
sports technologyplayer safetyinternational expansion
▸ Full transcript
standards. You know, they have a set of guidelines that boxes need to be checked, whether that's natural grass or hybrid or subsurface ventilation and vacuum systems. They replaced all of our playing surfaces that were at NFL venues, not just the synthetic ones, even the natural grass ones. When you look at Kansas City, San Francisco, and Miami, those went from natural grass surfaces to stitched hybrid surfaces. So even there, they wanted to see changes. FIFA obviously wanted to focus on what they felt was necessary for their tournament at a certain time of the year with exclusive agreements inside those buildings and then executed in that fashion. We play in a different time of year over a longer season, not just a six to 90-day window, whatever the World Cup tournament was. We play from the summer through the fall into the dead of winter. And we have a lot more going on in our buildings than just one event. So it's not quite an apples-to-apples comparison when we try and look at the World Cup. Real quick, Nick. Last one, we have about 30 seconds left. What is the next level of advancement for the NFL? And maybe whether it's turf or grass, what can be better? I think what we hear largely from our players' union is that they don't like some of the options that are presented right now. They don't like the way it makes them feel, right? So we're looking at how can we improve the feel of some of these products, both grass and obviously very much on the synthetic side. So that's us, the NFL, and the NFLPA through our Joint Surface Committee. That's us pushing the industry to say, hey, let's get better. Here's the way to do it. If anybody asks me.
Analysis

The NFL is exploring advancements in playing surfaces, with a focus on improving player comfort and performance. Current data shows no significant difference in injury rates between turf and grass, prompting the league to push for better synthetic options that meet player preferences.

Smart money should note the NFL's commitment to enhancing player safety and experience, which could influence future investments in sports technology and materials. The ongoing evolution of playing surfaces may also impact venue operations and maintenance costs, particularly as the league expands internationally.

11:47
PDT
No statistical difference in injury rates between turf and grass surfaces in the NFL.
NFLNFLPAJeff MillerNick PapasWorld CupAn AchillesHey Nick
– Injury data is tracked and analyzed by a third party for accuracy.
– Decisions on field surfaces may be driven by cost and weather rather than safety.
– The NFLPA collaborates with the NFL on injury data analysis.
– Teams may need to rethink investments in field types based on this data.
player safetysports infrastructure
▸ Full transcript
And then each of the site-specific conditions. And so one of the things you just mentioned soccer and of course the World Cup was here, we saw a lot of NFL teams replace their turf with grass. And one of the things that players said after they came up with this hashtag called 'worth the cost' trying to replace the turf with the grass. But I spoke to you, I spoke to Jeff Miller, I spoke to a lot of people at the NFL who say there's no direct correlation with injuries on turf versus grass. Can you speak to that a little bit? Yeah, that's correct. That's correct. So obviously, we work closely with the NFLPA and we have a third party that brings us our data and presents it to us annually. And obviously, we can look at that throughout the season to try and see trends. When we look at injury rate by surface type, breaking out natural grass versus artificial surfaces, it ends up being the same and it's been the same over a number of seasons now. So when we talk about injury rate, you're really at the same risk for a lower extremity, non-direct contact injury. So that's an injury that may occur lower part of the body without having any direct contact. An Achilles, something like that. Correct, yep. So, we've tracked those and looked at that extensively to try and understand if one is contributing to injury more than the other and the way it's been presented to us and the data that gets supplied to this party through our athletic trainers and our clubs as they track injuries and track our athletes on surfaces, it ends up being a split and no statistical difference in either of those right now. Hey Nick, why do some stadiums do grass, some do turf? Is it weather-related costs? Like what?
Analysis

Injury rates on NFL playing surfaces show no statistical difference between turf and grass, according to data presented by the NFL. This insight challenges the narrative that grass surfaces are inherently safer for players, suggesting that decisions on field types may be influenced more by cost and weather than by injury prevention.

The lack of correlation between surface type and injury rates indicates that teams may need to reassess their investments in field surfaces. Smart money should consider the implications of this data on operational costs and player safety perceptions, which could affect team valuations and sponsorship opportunities.

11:45
PDT
NFL's international games introduce unique venue challenges.
Nick PapasNFLAustraliaEuropean soccer clubsrugbyBloomberg Business WeekSuper BowlJoint Surface CommitteePRIVATE
– Surface improvement is a focus for the NFL's operations.
– Expansion into new markets may drive demand for sports infrastructure.
– Standardization of playing conditions could benefit turf technology firms.
– The NFL's global strategy reflects broader trends in sports commercialization.
sports infrastructureinternational expansion
▸ Full transcript
You're not going to be able to do that. I do. I love it. He joins us here in the Bloomberg Business Week studio; he's also brought to us Nick Papas, director of field services for the NFL. He joins us from Georgia. Nick, first up, Randall knows all this already, and he came by our desk to school us a little bit earlier, but for those who may not watch games all season long, just take us to like then we know certainly may take. Hey, thanks guys. Yeah, so pretty much everything that touches an NFL playing field in some way runs through me and my team, right? So game day compliance for our domestic stadiums, preparation for Super Bowl and international games, and then leading the work on surface improvement with our Joint Surface Committee and all the research that goes into that. So it sits in a few different buckets, but if it touches an NFL field somewhere, I've probably had a fingerprint on it. Nick, you recently got back from Australia. You'll be traveling all over the world this NFL season in large part because of the NFL's nine international games. I wonder what challenges those stadiums in particular pose; those aren't NFL venues, those are often European soccer clubs and also rugby as well. Tell me a little bit about those challenges. Yeah, every single location poses its own unique challenges, honestly. And every year over the last few years, we've added new markets, which add new challenges, right? A lot of the time traditionally playing on soccer pitches, which are...
Analysis

The NFL's director of field services, Nick Papas, highlighted the unique challenges posed by international games played on non-NFL venues, such as soccer pitches. This reflects the league's growing global footprint and the complexities involved in maintaining game day standards across diverse stadiums.

Smart money should note that the NFL's expansion into international markets may create opportunities for related sectors, such as sports infrastructure and turf technology, as the league seeks to standardize playing conditions worldwide. The emphasis on surface improvement indicates a potential shift in investment towards companies involved in sports field technology and maintenance.

11:42
PDT
WTI crude down 2% to $99.90.
WTIBrentBitcoinCoinbase GlobalStrategyFederal ReserveUSBitcoin TreasuryWest Texas IntermediateBloomberg NewsCharlie PellettCarolyn TimFEDFUNDSPRIVATE
– Brent crude down 1.3% to $103.46.
– Bitcoin up 5.9%, nearing $81,000.
– Coinbase Global up 11.7%; Strategy up 14.8%.
– Investors showing stronger appetite for risk.
crypto market dynamicsenergy pricesinvestor sentiment
▸ Full transcript
99.90 on WTI, falling by 2% per barrel. Brent at 103.46, down by 1.3%. Bitcoin meanwhile closing in on 81,000, up 5.9% right now at 80,984. Crypto rallying amid stronger appetite for risk as investors look past the failure of a landmark US crypto bill and the Fed's first rate hike this week in more than three years. Among crypto-related names, Coinbase Global up 11.7% and Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, which operates now as a Bitcoin Treasury company, up by 14.8%. Again recapping, we've got Bitcoin at 80,957 and West Texas Intermediate crude bears repeating at 99.84 per barrel, down now by 2%. For on-demand news 24 hours a day, subscribe to Bloomberg News now wherever you get your podcasts. I'm Charlie Pellett, Carolyn Tim, that is a Bloomberg business flag. Charlie, how many Bitcoin did you buy today? As many as Matt Miller did, which is a little bit of history. I mean, I remember this guy. Correct me if I'm wrong. Do you guys remember when I believe he bought a Christmas tree on our airwaves? I thought so, right, using Bitcoin to pay for it? Yeah, I think so. He also had some, and then he says he lost. And again, I don't have details. I'm not speaking on his behalf.
Analysis

WTI crude oil fell by 2% to $99.90 per barrel, while Brent crude decreased by 1.3% to $103.46. Bitcoin surged 5.9% to nearly $81,000, driven by a stronger risk appetite among investors despite recent regulatory setbacks in the U.S. crypto market.

The notable rise in Bitcoin and related stocks like Coinbase Global and Strategy suggests a growing confidence in the crypto sector, potentially signaling a shift in investor sentiment. This could indicate that market participants are willing to overlook regulatory challenges in favor of potential gains, which may lead to increased volatility in both crypto and traditional markets.

11:40
PDT
Tariffs are distorting U.S. market share.
MexicoUnited StatesBloombergHaslinda AlmanDeepinder GoyalWall StreetPRIVATE
– Mexico may align with U.S. objectives soon.
– Bond yields are advancing, indicating tightening.
– Equity indices show mixed performance.
– Market dynamics are shifting due to geopolitical factors.
trade policybond market dynamics
▸ Full transcript
We have our own land plan for Mexico, which is basically the same. We're pretty much aligned with the overall objective. Do you think Mexico is going to get there before the end of the year with the United States? We hope so. The tariffs that were put under the 232 and 301 are creating market distortions. The U.S. is not winning that market share; it's other economies. So for the best of the three countries, we should be done with that sooner or later. Don't miss Bloomberg's surveillance live every weekday. Power. Money. Culture. Haslinda Alman tells the story of Asia's rise through the people who are helping to shape it. On this episode, the architect of the almost instant delivery in India, eternal founder Deepinder Goyal, is now looking to solve enduring challenges, decades into the future. I know that I am going to die not knowing whether I've done the job. Latitude on core presentation this weekend only on Bloomberg. It's 2:40 on Wall Street. We do check markets all day long here at Bloomberg. One hour and 20 minutes to go ahead of the closing bell. That is the Nasdaq 100 index; there are both higher S&P and Dow both in the red. We are in the final stretch of a busy week for U.S. markets. We are seeing bond yields advancing right now. Now we have got the two-year at 4.73% and the 10-year bouncing around the 5% threshold.
Analysis

The U.S. is experiencing market distortions due to tariffs under Section 232 and 301, which are causing a loss of market share to other economies. There is hope that Mexico will align with the U.S. objectives by the end of the year, which could alleviate some of these distortions.

Smart money should note that the advancing bond yields, with the two-year at 4.73% and the ten-year around the 5% threshold, indicate a tightening environment that could impact equity valuations. The current market dynamics suggest a potential shift in capital flows as investors reassess risk in light of geopolitical developments and inflationary pressures.

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